John Bonnes

One thing that should probably be an any profile is age. Walker is 21, and we haven't seen him above rookie league. Expectations need to be tempered.

John and Aaron are reunited to talk Minnesota Twins. But the podcast starts with the two catching up: John's trip, the death of Aaron's youth, John's Bar Mitzvah adventures, how Aaron picks up waitresses and how cricket teams could use a sabrmetric intervention. Then they move onto the Twins, catching up on the moves John missed, wondering how anyone can justify the Twins payroll and starting rotation, the disappointing Hall of Fame votes and the BBWAA's ongoing (an largely successful) struggle to make itself irrelevant. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

John and Aaron are reunited to talk Minnesota Twins. But the podcast starts with the two catching up: John's trip, the death of Aaron's youth, John's Bar Mitzvah adventures, how Aaron picks up waitresses and how cricket teams could use a sabrmetric intervention. Then they move onto the Twins, catching up on the moves John missed, wondering how anyone can justify the Twins payroll and starting rotation, the disappointing Hall of Fame votes and the BBWAA's ongoing (an largely successful) struggle to make itself irrelevant. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013.... 2012 Recap Given the clustermess that was 2011, most Twins fans would have been happy just to see Joe Mauer on the field last year. They did - kinda. Mauer not only stayed healthy, but set a career high with 647 plate appearances and 147 games played. However, exactly half of his starts were at catcher (72 games), with the rest happening at designated hitter (42 games) and first base (30 games). I'll leave you to debate how that impacts his value. What is not debatable is the he returned to being elite offensively. He was in the AL batting race until the last weekend. His .416 on-base percentage led the league. He hit double-digit home runs (albeit barely) for the first time since his MVP campaign. And he posted an 861 OPS, tops for AL catchers. Why He'll Be Worse Don't look now, but like a certain blogger, our boy Joe turns 30 this year. That's even more ominous because he was also remarkably healthy last year. Furthermore, so was Ryan Doumit, which meant Mauer's body had the luxury of rarely being forced into multiple consecutive starts. Finally, there is the whole regression to the mean thing - how long can we expect him to stay at this level? Why He'll Be Better Believe it or not, that 861 OPS he posted is below his career 873 average. So was his .319 batting average. He'll also be a year further away from the injury problems that torpedoed 2011. Finally, both he and the Twins seem to have found (and accepted) a recipe for keeping him healthy by moving him around the diamond a little. So which is it? Take your pick in the survey below and leave us a comment saying why.

You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013.... 2012 Recap Given the clustermess that was 2011, most Twins fans would have been happy just to see Joe Mauer on the field last year. They did - kinda. Mauer not only stayed healthy, but set a career high with 647 plate appearances and 147 games played. However, exactly half of his starts were at catcher (72 games), with the rest happening at designated hitter (42 games) and first base (30 games). I'll leave you to debate how that impacts his value. What is not debatable is the he returned to being elite offensively. He was in the AL batting race until the last weekend. His .416 on-base percentage led the league. He hit double-digit home runs (albeit barely) for the first time since his MVP campaign. And he posted an 861 OPS, tops for AL catchers. Why He'll Be Worse Don't look now, but like a certain blogger, our boy Joe turns 30 this year. That's even more ominous because he was also remarkably healthy last year. Furthermore, so was Ryan Doumit, which meant Mauer's body had the luxury of rarely being forced into multiple consecutive starts. Finally, there is the whole regression to the mean thing - how long can we expect him to stay at this level? Why He'll Be Better Believe it or not, that 861 OPS he posted is below his career 873 average. So was his .319 batting average. He'll also be a year further away from the injury problems that torpedoed 2011. Finally, both he and the Twins seem to have found (and accepted) a recipe for keeping him healthy by moving him around the diamond a little. So which is it? Take your pick in the survey below and leave us a comment saying why.

In the majors? Or in 2013 at whatever level they start? I gotta say, I don't know that any of them are even likely to make it to the majors.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2905[/ATTACH]Aaron and John podcast about the Minnesota Twins signing Kevin Correia for $10 million, Jared Burton's contract extension, how the podcast will cope with John halfway across the world, why Aaron wants to get punched in the face every day, Doug Mientkiewicz's return to the organization, more changes in the team's newspaper coverage, Ben Revere's power plan, thinking Nick Punto wasn't so bad after all, and predictable rejection.

I like that second list, that shows just how out of left field that amount of money is. (It would be even better if De La Rosa, who picked up his own option year, wasn't on the list.) The more one looks at this, the more it becomes so puzzling that it almost defies any kind of analysis. This does a nice job of objectively quantifying that.

[video=youtube;VAcYNo6YW70] Want to try your own Minnesota Twins (or movie or technology or whatever) podcast? Great. You can start with this video. John walks Aaron through the same process we've used to record 70+ Gleeman and the Geek episodes, from the hardware through editing and to hosting. It's just a couple minutes long and at a high level, but hopefully it'll give you enough information to try it yourself. For reference, here are the basics: We record it all on an iPhone, using the FiRe app. On the video, I show how to record it on Aaron's Mac. You could also use any PC with a microphone plug in (and then you don't need the special "plug" I talk about in the video.) We use a special splitter that we plug into it that allows two mics to go into it and (most importantly) turns off the built-in iPhone mic. I bought that on the internet. We used two very basic radio shack mics. We used little foamy covers on them. Both of them also need an adaptor that allows them to plug into a 1/8th inch hole instead of 1/4 inch. There are an array of better mics you could use. You can also use the built-in mic, but that will pick up a lot of background noise and sound a little "cave-ish" in my opinion. You're best of experimenting. After we've recorded, I Download the audio from the iPhone onto my PC. Open it using Audacity (a free program). It works on PC or Mac. You can also use it to record the podcast if you're mic is plugged into your PC. Add the intro music and ender music. You can use Audacity to fade it in and out. I assume there are a ton of tutorials on how to do basic stuff in Audacity. I think it's the most widely used such program (probably because it's free.) Export it as an MP3 to my PC Upload it to libsyn.com, where we have an account that we pay for (though there are also free ones). They host the podcast (and our gleemanandthegeek.com page.) Libsyn gives us our statistics, too. I like libsyn.com, but there are plenty of other options and when people list them, I rarely hear libsyn mentioned. But they've worked great for us. Whoever you pick, once you get subscribers, you'll probably want to stick with them. In the past, we submitted the RSS of that Libsyn feed to iTunes, who approved it in a couple of days. (I don't know what their approval standards are, but I don't think they care if you are getting many downloads.) When someone downloads it (or subscribes) from them, it points to libsyn. There are lots of other ways to do this. If you're not doing it from bars, one of which I mention in the video. Also, if you and your friend need to talk remotely, one can also do it using Skype, though I'm not sure how exactly. There is also BlogTalkRadio.com, which Seth has used in the past. They allow you to essentially call into your show, and you can field calls, etc. (You can also upload files there if you want.) Hopefully, that's enough to get you started. If you have any questions, feel free to ask them below. I'll try to respond as best I can.

[video=youtube;VAcYNo6YW70] Want to try your own Minnesota Twins (or movie or technology or whatever) podcast? Great. You can start with this video. John walks Aaron through the same process we've used to record 70+ Gleeman and the Geek episodes, from the hardware through editing and to hosting. It's just a couple minutes long and at a high level, but hopefully it'll give you enough information to try it yourself. For reference, here are the basics: We record it all on an iPhone, using the FiRe app. On the video, I show how to record it on Aaron's Mac. You could also use any PC with a microphone plug in (and then you don't need the special "plug" I talk about in the video.) We use a special splitter that we plug into it that allows two mics to go into it and (most importantly) turns off the built-in iPhone mic. I bought that on the internet. We used two very basic radio shack mics. We used little foamy covers on them. Both of them also need an adaptor that allows them to plug into a 1/8th inch hole instead of 1/4 inch. There are an array of better mics you could use. You can also use the built-in mic, but that will pick up a lot of background noise and sound a little "cave-ish" in my opinion. You're best of experimenting. After we've recorded, I Download the audio from the iPhone onto my PC. Open it using Audacity (a free program). It works on PC or Mac. You can also use it to record the podcast if you're mic is plugged into your PC. Add the intro music and ender music. You can use Audacity to fade it in and out. I assume there are a ton of tutorials on how to do basic stuff in Audacity. I think it's the most widely used such program (probably because it's free.) Export it as an MP3 to my PC Upload it to libsyn.com, where we have an account that we pay for (though there are also free ones). They host the podcast (and our gleemanandthegeek.com page.) Libsyn gives us our statistics, too. I like libsyn.com, but there are plenty of other options and when people list them, I rarely hear libsyn mentioned. But they've worked great for us. Whoever you pick, once you get subscribers, you'll probably want to stick with them. In the past, we submitted the RSS of that Libsyn feed to iTunes, who approved it in a couple of days. (I don't know what their approval standards are, but I don't think they care if you are getting many downloads.) When someone downloads it (or subscribes) from them, it points to libsyn. There are lots of other ways to do this. If you're not doing it from bars, one of which I mention in the video. Also, if you and your friend need to talk remotely, one can also do it using Skype, though I'm not sure how exactly. There is also BlogTalkRadio.com, which Seth has used in the past. They allow you to essentially call into your show, and you can field calls, etc. (You can also upload files there if you want.) Hopefully, that's enough to get you started. If you have any questions, feel free to ask them below. I'll try to respond as best I can.

The easy reaction to the news that the Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms. A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly on the subway. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom. A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere. Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either. Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest. That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm. The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis. So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million. Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL. I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline. And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal. I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified. But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

The easy reaction to the news that the Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms. A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly on the subway. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom. A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere. Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either. Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest. That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm. The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis. So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million. Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL. I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline. And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal. I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified. But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins trading Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May, what it means for team's 2013 plans, how much everyone is counting on Aaron Hicks, what John and Aaron did after the last podcast, why Darrin Mastroianni suddenly has a big role, what the farm system looks like after back-to-back big trades, the Rule 5 draft, whether Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham are next up on the trading block, and John's dog's digestive system. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins trading Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May, what it means for team's 2013 plans, how much everyone is counting on Aaron Hicks, what John and Aaron did after the last podcast, why Darrin Mastroianni suddenly has a big role, what the farm system looks like after back-to-back big trades, the Rule 5 draft, whether Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham are next up on the trading block, and John's dog's digestive system. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be.

It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be.