John Bonnes

I'm hesitant to find stick two guys who are still developing into major leaguers on the bench. I'm not a fan of Parmelee being sent back to AAA, but if he's going to be the odd man out, then Gardy has to really work to get him into the lineup at the beginning of the season when he has a lot of healthy veterans. I don't see that happening. And Herrmann needs to play in AAA or AA everyday. Butera is a perfectly acceptable option to have 150-200 AB, though I'd be just as happy without a 3rd catcher.

FWIW, if this isn't already a topic in the forum, I'd be interested in seeing what the wider community thinks about it. Especially when you're writing a short entry and asking for feedback, it makes sense to post it in the forum.

I like the story and I like your style of writing Brad. I'm looking forward to reading more. Thanks.

“If I want to write about baseball, what should I do?” It isn’t uncommon that I’m asked this question by some well-meaning younger person who is trying to find their spot in what feels like a crowded world. Bluntly, but as tenderly as I can, I usually say: “Write. Preferably, about baseball.” I’m blunt, because there are so many ways to write about baseball. Start a blog. (If you want an instant Twins audience, you can used the one you have here.) Or write an email to friends. Or use a forum thread as a chance to research and write about a topic. The barriers for entry have disappeared. But I also respond with tenderness because I suspect that most of the people that ask me this question will not write about baseball. If they wanted to write about baseball, they would already be writing about baseball. What they’re really asking is “If I think I might want TO BE PAID to write about baseball, what should I do?” The answer is the same. In fact, the answer is the same if you’re wondering which of those two questions you’re really asking. Just write, preferably every day, about whatever you want, and you’ll figure it out. If you do that, you’re already a baseball writer, and now you just need to figure out how to get paid. You’ll also figure out that there is more to writing about baseball than writing about baseball. Such as marketing yourself, finding an audience, generating ideas and asking uncomfortable questions. If you don’t like it, then you were interested in drawing a paycheck, but you didn’t want to write about baseball. Which is fine. Try again. You’ll likely find something you like better and get paid to do that. Not every job is that cut and dry. I make my living as a business systems analyst and I’m happy being one. I love problem solving. I like figuring things out and teaching others what I’ve figured out. I like building things that people can use. All of these are aspects of being a business systems analyst, but I don’t know that I would do it every day just because I liked it. The regular hours and solid paycheck have plenty to do with why it’s my trade. But writing about baseball is that cut and dry, and coaching is like that too. The litmus test that both pass is “Would a lot of people do it for nearly free?” If so, then you had better have enough real passion to do before you become. This is why I’m always so puzzled when Paul Molitor’s name comes up as a possible assistant coach for the Minnesota Twins. Molitor last served as a full year coach for a team back in 2001, when he was Tom Kelly’s bench coach. He served in that capacity for three years. Since then, he’s had other jobs, mostly roving around the minor leagues as a special instructor, but he hasn’t managed a minor league team. I can’t recall him even being an assistant coach for a Twins minor league affiliate. That seems odd for someone who wants to be a baseball manager. Like writing, if someone wants to manage a baseball team, they should manage a baseball team. Mike Redmond, for example, has been managing baseball teams (and succeeding) at High-A and Low-A the last two years. Not surprisingly, he’s being mentioned as an option if (or more likely, when) the Marlins dismiss Ozzie Guillen. If you remember Matt LeCroy, he’s managing too, for the AA-Harrisburg Senators, a Nationals affiliate. That’s also someone who is doing what they want to be. Just so I'm clear - I'm not knocking Molitor. I have no doubt that if he wanted to be a coach, there are all kinds of teams and affiliates that would welcome him with open arms. I'm knocking us for inserting his name in the discussion when there isn't much evidence that is what he wants to do. To their credit, the Twins seem to share this philosophy. The three rumored new assistant coaches, Tom Brunansky, Bobby Cuellar and Gene Glynn, would join the Twins after coaching AAA-Rochester last year. Each has shown they know how to handle the role for which they are rumored to be hired. Because they’re already doing it.

“If I want to write about baseball, what should I do?” It isn’t uncommon that I’m asked this question by some well-meaning younger person who is trying to find their spot in what feels like a crowded world. Bluntly, but as tenderly as I can, I usually say: “Write. Preferably, about baseball.” I’m blunt, because there are so many ways to write about baseball. Start a blog. (If you want an instant Twins audience, you can used the one you have here.) Or write an email to friends. Or use a forum thread as a chance to research and write about a topic. The barriers for entry have disappeared. But I also respond with tenderness because I suspect that most of the people that ask me this question will not write about baseball. If they wanted to write about baseball, they would already be writing about baseball. What they’re really asking is “If I think I might want TO BE PAID to write about baseball, what should I do?” The answer is the same. In fact, the answer is the same if you’re wondering which of those two questions you’re really asking. Just write, preferably every day, about whatever you want, and you’ll figure it out. If you do that, you’re already a baseball writer, and now you just need to figure out how to get paid. You’ll also figure out that there is more to writing about baseball than writing about baseball. Such as marketing yourself, finding an audience, generating ideas and asking uncomfortable questions. If you don’t like it, then you were interested in drawing a paycheck, but you didn’t want to write about baseball. Which is fine. Try again. You’ll likely find something you like better and get paid to do that. Not every job is that cut and dry. I make my living as a business systems analyst and I’m happy being one. I love problem solving. I like figuring things out and teaching others what I’ve figured out. I like building things that people can use. All of these are aspects of being a business systems analyst, but I don’t know that I would do it every day just because I liked it. The regular hours and solid paycheck have plenty to do with why it’s my trade. But writing about baseball is that cut and dry, and coaching is like that too. The litmus test that both pass is “Would a lot of people do it for nearly free?” If so, then you had better have enough real passion to do before you become. This is why I’m always so puzzled when Paul Molitor’s name comes up as a possible assistant coach for the Minnesota Twins. Molitor last served as a full year coach for a team back in 2001, when he was Tom Kelly’s bench coach. He served in that capacity for three years. Since then, he’s had other jobs, mostly roving around the minor leagues as a special instructor, but he hasn’t managed a minor league team. I can’t recall him even being an assistant coach for a Twins minor league affiliate. That seems odd for someone who wants to be a baseball manager. Like writing, if someone wants to manage a baseball team, they should manage a baseball team. Mike Redmond, for example, has been managing baseball teams (and succeeding) at High-A and Low-A the last two years. Not surprisingly, he’s being mentioned as an option if (or more likely, when) the Marlins dismiss Ozzie Guillen. If you remember Matt LeCroy, he’s managing too, for the AA-Harrisburg Senators, a Nationals affiliate. That’s also someone who is doing what they want to be. Just so I'm clear - I'm not knocking Molitor. I have no doubt that if he wanted to be a coach, there are all kinds of teams and affiliates that would welcome him with open arms. I'm knocking us for inserting his name in the discussion when there isn't much evidence that is what he wants to do. To their credit, the Twins seem to share this philosophy. The three rumored new assistant coaches, Tom Brunansky, Bobby Cuellar and Gene Glynn, would join the Twins after coaching AAA-Rochester last year. Each has shown they know how to handle the role for which they are rumored to be hired. Because they’re already doing it.

The Minnesota Twins blow up their coaching staff, so Seth Stohs joins Aaron and John to talk about Ron Gardenhire's leash, the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, what the shopping plans are for free agent pitching, casting ballots for team MVP, why no one seems to want Paul Molitor, the futures of Trevor Plouffe and Liam Hendriks, how to lessen the upcoming outfield logjam, and why long podcasts are the best podcasts. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Minnesota Twins blow up their coaching staff, so Seth Stohs joins Aaron and John to talk about Ron Gardenhire's leash, the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, what the shopping plans are for free agent pitching, casting ballots for team MVP, why no one seems to want Paul Molitor, the futures of Trevor Plouffe and Liam Hendriks, how to lessen the upcoming outfield logjam, and why long podcasts are the best podcasts. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Vegas picked the White Sox to finish fourth in the AL Central this year, pegging them to win about 74.5 games. Chicago's season essentially ended last night when the Tigers clinched the division, but that means the Pale Hose' playoff hopes lasted until October, about four (five?) months longer than the Twins. They also made anyone who bet the “under” in Vegas look like a fool, exceeding Vegas preseason estimate by 10 games and counting. I am one of those fools. In our Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I predicted a miserable season on Chicago’s south side. They had won 79 games in 2011, but with a run differential that looked worse than that. And then they lost Mark Buehrle to the Marlins and traded away slugger Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos. They had also lost manager Carlos Guillen, for better or worse. But the White Sox responded by getting career (or at least bouncback) years from several suspect veterans. Pitcher Jake Peavy, who had spent most of the last few years injured, led the team in innings. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were much maligned last year when they were getting paid $24M to knock home just 84 RBI. This year they exceeded that number by 100. Kevin Youkilis came over from the Red Sox to fill a serious gap at third and AJ Pierzynski slugged a career high 27 home runs. However, none of those guys is less than 31 years old and several of them are going to be free agents. The White Sox had a fun year, but they really only had two younger players show they could contribute long-term. Pitcher Chris Sale became the staff ace while showing he could handle a starting pitcher’s workload. And center fielder Alejandro De Aza (who isn’t really young at 28 years old) posted very respectable numbers for a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Which means that this spring, Chicago is likely going to be wrestling with similar questions as there were last spring. Can they trust Rios and Dunn? How will eat Peavy’s innings? Who will play third base? Is Tyler Flowers ready to catch full time? And if things go right, will they still be a good, but not great, team that just misses the playoffs? Meanwhile, the Twins must decide this offseason just how jealous they are of the Sox success this year – because that might just be within reach. The Twins could grab two or three veteran arms and be a .500 club this summer. With a few breaks (which might include some regression from the Sox) they could challenge for the 2013 AL Central last into September. Like the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them winning 90 games, but meaningful baseball would be a welcome change after two years of futility. But if they did that, next offseason they would likely be back in a similar position as the Sox. They would be looking at losing Justin Morneau. They would have an aging roster. The departure of Denard Span and Josh Willingham would be a year away. They would have kept their team together and maybe missed the chance to add some pitching or middle infield prospects. They would have had success, shown they could fill some holes, maybe even given minor league talent time to work it’s way up the farm system, but they would still not have a widespread and deep foundation of a great team. They would still be missing that young and cheap core. Would that be enough?

Vegas picked the White Sox to finish fourth in the AL Central this year, pegging them to win about 74.5 games. Chicago's season essentially ended last night when the Tigers clinched the division, but that means the Pale Hose' playoff hopes lasted until October, about four (five?) months longer than the Twins. They also made anyone who bet the “under” in Vegas look like a fool, exceeding Vegas preseason estimate by 10 games and counting. I am one of those fools. In our Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I predicted a miserable season on Chicago’s south side. They had won 79 games in 2011, but with a run differential that looked worse than that. And then they lost Mark Buehrle to the Marlins and traded away slugger Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos. They had also lost manager Carlos Guillen, for better or worse. But the White Sox responded by getting career (or at least bouncback) years from several suspect veterans. Pitcher Jake Peavy, who had spent most of the last few years injured, led the team in innings. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were much maligned last year when they were getting paid $24M to knock home just 84 RBI. This year they exceeded that number by 100. Kevin Youkilis came over from the Red Sox to fill a serious gap at third and AJ Pierzynski slugged a career high 27 home runs. However, none of those guys is less than 31 years old and several of them are going to be free agents. The White Sox had a fun year, but they really only had two younger players show they could contribute long-term. Pitcher Chris Sale became the staff ace while showing he could handle a starting pitcher’s workload. And center fielder Alejandro De Aza (who isn’t really young at 28 years old) posted very respectable numbers for a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Which means that this spring, Chicago is likely going to be wrestling with similar questions as there were last spring. Can they trust Rios and Dunn? How will eat Peavy’s innings? Who will play third base? Is Tyler Flowers ready to catch full time? And if things go right, will they still be a good, but not great, team that just misses the playoffs? Meanwhile, the Twins must decide this offseason just how jealous they are of the Sox success this year – because that might just be within reach. The Twins could grab two or three veteran arms and be a .500 club this summer. With a few breaks (which might include some regression from the Sox) they could challenge for the 2013 AL Central last into September. Like the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them winning 90 games, but meaningful baseball would be a welcome change after two years of futility. But if they did that, next offseason they would likely be back in a similar position as the Sox. They would be looking at losing Justin Morneau. They would have an aging roster. The departure of Denard Span and Josh Willingham would be a year away. They would have kept their team together and maybe missed the chance to add some pitching or middle infield prospects. They would have had success, shown they could fill some holes, maybe even given minor league talent time to work it’s way up the farm system, but they would still not have a widespread and deep foundation of a great team. They would still be missing that young and cheap core. Would that be enough?

The Minnesota Twins release Tsuyoshi Nishioka, contemplate coaching changes, and the John and Aaron review the MLB season via their preseason predictions. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Minnesota Twins release Tsuyoshi Nishioka, contemplate coaching changes, and the John and Aaron review the MLB season via their preseason predictions. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Oddly, a lot of sabrmetric geeks I know don’t like the Win Probability Added (WPA) statistic. I don’t want to speak for them as to why, but the comment I hear that drives me the craziest is something like “All you have to do is see that Erik Komatsu was more valuable then Ben Revere to understand that it is worthless.” It drive me crazy because 15 years ago, I would hear the same question from baseball traditionalists when I’d suggest that an on-base machine like Bobby Abreu was more valuable than a guy with 20 more RBI. And I would say “Yes, that’s exactly what that means.” And I felt confident because: wins for a team correlates closely with run differential and the runs a team scores mirrors closely their On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) and a team’s OPS built is on their players’ OPS and Bobby Abreu has a crazy good OPS. And they would say, “That’s nice that you have all those correlations and stuff, but Abreu only had 79 RBI last year!” They might agree with the method, but couldn’t accept the results. To me, that’s just being closed minded. Similarly, I believe in the method of computing WPA. Here’s how it works: Analyzing dozens of years of baseball, you compute every game situation and how often a team in that situation won or lost the game. So, for instance, a home team that has runners on the corners and one out and is down by a run may have won games 55% of the time. Give the batter and the pitcher credit for how much they change those probabilities. So if the batter bounces into a double play, and the percent chance drops to 30%, then the batter loses .25 points and the pitcher gains .25 points. Do this for every play of every game throughout the year. It’s not perfect – it doesn’t take into account fielding. If also isn’t especially predictive. And a player who plays a lot has plenty of opportunities for negative scores as well as positive scores. However, it also is not dependent on other players; the player who is on third isn’t affected by the batter who grounds into the double play. And it rewards players who make big hits – hits that change the course of the game. Finally, if you look at the players with the highest and lowest WPA at the end of the game, it is almost never a surprise. It lines up with who you, as a fan, thought the heroes and goats of the game were. In fact, I have rarely heard anyone criticize the method. It’s fairly simple to understand and, though it means handling a lot of data, the logic is straight-forward and elegant. But the results…that’s a different story. And that will be the case when you see the Twins WPA this year. Today we’ll start with the hitters and get to the pitchers next time: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2394[/ATTACH] I suspect few people have trouble with the top two names on the list. Willingham not only had an enormous positive impact in games amongst Twins, his is one of the highest in the majors. It is the 2nd highest, right now, in the American League, sandwiched between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. (Actually, Cabrera is fourth. Edwin Encarnacion is in 3rd, .05 points above Cabrera. And fifth in the AL belongs to the next name on that list – Joe Mauer. He’s currently above Prince Fielder but a few percentage points. For all the talk about how “clutch” Mauer might not be and how many double-plays he grounds into, Mauer has had an enormous positive impact on the Twins this year. Statistically, it’s not debatable. On the other hand, I suspect some folks are going to have trouble accepting that Ryan Doumit and Ben Revere have, offensively at least, cost the Twins several wins. Statistically, both have been fairly strong, but overall, they’ve had a lot more negative impacts on games than positive impacts so far this year. Because of that, they rank lower than subs that aren’t even with the team any more like …. well, Erik Komatsu. That doesn’t mean the statistic is worthless. It just means Revere (and Doumit) didn’t have the offensive impact that we would have like to have seen. Of this, I’m confident.

Aaron sips a pink libation. John begs their listeners to take a quick survery for recruiting sponsors. Then they chat about whether Sam Deduno belong, whether the Twins can and should re-sign Scott Baker, how one characterizes the starting pitching market, Liam Hendriks first "W," the MLB television deal and what it means for the Twins payroll, the switch from Beloit to Cedar Rapids, and honors bestowed by Baseball America on some Twins prospects. Then they answer mailbag about the Minnesota Twins and compare blogging to podcasting. the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron sips a pink libation. John begs their listeners to take a quick survery for recruiting sponsors. Then they chat about whether Sam Deduno belong, whether the Twins can and should re-sign Scott Baker, how one characterizes the starting pitching market, Liam Hendriks first "W," the MLB television deal and what it means for the Twins payroll, the switch from Beloit to Cedar Rapids, and honors bestowed by Baseball America on some Twins prospects. Then they answer mailbag about the Minnesota Twins and compare blogging to podcasting. the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.