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Does Ben Revere’s Departure Portend Justin Morneau Trade?
John Bonnes posted a blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be. -
Does Ben Revere’s Departure Portend Justin Morneau Trade?
John Bonnes commented on John Bonnes's blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be. -
Apparently, John Manuel identified two guys who he thought were the top two on the board, both of which had that kind of stuff. Lara was one of them and Domingez(?) was the other. Neither was picked, not by the Twins, not by anyone. I'm not busting on Manuel, or on the Twins, or on the other GMs. I think it just shows that there is a lot of unknowns in this process. But I'd sure be a lot more excited about a big arm like that than I ame about Pressly, FWIW.
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If Revere goes to Philly, who comes back?
John Bonnes replied to twinstalker's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You touched on the big problem in the Phils organization - control. I can't imaging the can get Biddle. I'm intrigued by May. Worley - I kind of like him, but next year he'll be arbitration eligible. Would I take him straight up for Revere? Maybe. I don't know. -
I caught that too, and fixed it, probably while you were commenting. He was 23 years old last year. (Also, just a point of grammar to all you budding writers out there: if that phrase is being used as a noun or adjective, it should have hyphens. So the 23-year-old or the 23-year-old pitcher will be turning 24 years old.)
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Seems like a "C" prospect to me. Actually, he doesn't. The most damning thing about his stats that I can see is that at the end of this year, being used only as a reliever, he struck out 21 in 27 innings at AA. In fact, he's bounced between starter and reliever throughout his minor league career. So even the hope that his stuff will be amped up out of the 'pen seems unfounded. He is the longest of shots to stay with the team this year, IMHO. It might just be that the Rule 5 just isn't worth paying attention to any more. Or it might just be that the Twins, who have had the #2 and #4 picks the last two years and come up with almost nothing, just don't know how to really take advantage of it any more. Can anyone remember of any Rule 5 picks from last year for any team that look like they're going to be worthwhile?
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Shift In Free Agency Strategy Doesn't Favor The Minnesota Twins
John Bonnes posted an article in Twins
The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy. -
Shift In Free Agency Strategy Doesn't Favor The Minnesota Twins
John Bonnes commented on John Bonnes's blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy. -
Shift In Free Agency Strategy Doesn't Favor The Minnesota Twins
John Bonnes posted a blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy. -
I"m not going to cry and bitter tears over Blanton. It's possible he would be a lot better if his home field was Target Field than The Bank, but for $7.5M/year, I'm not anxious to risk it. So Jeff Francis is going back to Colorado? Is he a masochist? Why does he keep going back to that launching pad? I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'd have loved to see him sign a one-year deal for cheap provided the Twins had an option year. I'd be intrigued to see what he could do in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
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What if the Twins chose not to sign a name pitcher?
John Bonnes commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP
Well, I think it would be fire-able to not bring in anyone, just because I think for the most part we know what we have in the guys we saw last year. There is not point in reserving innnings for them. That's doesn't mean I'm opposed to bringing in guys with some risk and upside - PROVIDED there is a future payoff. I think this means having an option year on 2014, or bringing in guys who aren't at 6 years service time. I'd be more willing to try out minor league free agents than sign lower level guys, even if they have upside, to a one-year deal. -
MASN is reporting the Twins have approached the Orioles about trading them Justin Morneau. http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2012/12/twins-have-contacted-the-orioles-about-morneau.html I think there already some threads talking specifcally about a trade with the Orioles, but this makes me wonder a couple of things... 1. What would you be willing to give up Morneau for? Both if the Twins ate some salary or if they ate none of it... 2. Is this yet another indication that Ryan is willing to tread water in 2013 and look towards the future?
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Revere on the trading block?
John Bonnes replied to AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Here's he link: I don't think this is a terrible idea, if they think they can get some decent pitching back. Hicks could be ready sooner rather than later and thy can use a placeholder in he meantime - even Mastroianni. -
Given the escalated salaries for starting pitchers, how high would you be willing to go for Brandon McCarthy? He's been very good when healthy, but also has only thrown 111 and 170 innings the last two years. He was out all of 2010. So there is plenty of gamble there. Would you be willing to go three years? Would you be willing to go up to $10M/year? $11M? Think of this as a blind bid situation. If you get the biggest total number, you get him. What would you be willing to do? (I think I top out at 2/22 or 3/30.)
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Haren to sign 1 year, $13 million deal with Nats
John Bonnes replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Other Baseball
When he was available for a trade for almost nothing at 1 year/$12M a month ago, we wondered if 29 teams (including the Twins) would regret not making that deal. Looks like it that was true. As I wrote this morning, this further drives home that #2 pitchers are going for $12-15M/year this offseason. If Haren is getting that, then I have to think they'll all be getting that. McCarthy can't go going for much less than $10M annually now, can he? -
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1219-Rock-Versus-Hard-Place
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One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years. Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year. Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M. Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.” James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span. Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels. Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer. RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.” Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.” Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year. Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. If you’re looking for some trends to take from this, it appears that each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. This is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that don’t, odds are that player is overpaid. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go?
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One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years. Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year. Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M. Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.” James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span. Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels. Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer. RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.” Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.” Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year. Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. If you’re looking for some trends to take from this, it appears that each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. This is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that don’t, odds are that player is overpaid. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go?
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One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric ffseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years. Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year. Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M. Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.” James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span. Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels. Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer. RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.” Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.” Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year. Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. Each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. Thus, this is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that think that much money is too much, odds are that is too much. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go?
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Should Twins Offer Dempster A 3-Year Deal?
John Bonnes replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I gotta say, I'm shocked at the low opinions of Dempster. This guy has been a 200 inning horse for something like 5 years. His xFIP each of those years is right around 3.7. Is it just the AL thing? To me, his stats are that of a clear #2 guy. Where is all the pessimism about him coming from? It seems a little crazy. What are you guys looking at? -
I'd love to have him but it sounds like Cle is only letting go of him for pitching.
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John Bonnes replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Twins Daily Issues & Suggestions
I'm very sorry about these problems. We are working to address them, but we unfortunately have a 3rd party involved.... Our ad supplier was bought by another company a few months ago, and I'm noticing problems like this during their transition. We've been meaining to look into other options, but just haven't had time to do so. It sounds like these are related to them messing up the feeed they're giving us. For instance, the load after the first page sounds like the ad after that first post is hanging things up. And we would NEVER willingly accept a video playing sound to pop up on the site. That's the ad company messing up the types of ads they feed us, just like they sometimes put larger ads in place of the smaller ones that we are supposed to show. We're very sorry about these sort of things. Unfortunately, fixing them is more of a process (and not one we can control directly) rather than a quick fix. I appreciate your patience, and don't hesitate to give us feedback when it's not going well. That's something we can take to our ad provider. Sincerely, John -
It appears the Twins are looking hard at Dempster, and it appears he's pushing interested teams for a 3-year deal. That might be all that it takes to nab the 35-year-old who has been a dependable horse for the last five years. I don't know if the Twins could get him at 3/39, but I have to think they have a shot at 3/42. Would you do it? His baseball reference page is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dempsry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com
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For those who have listened to a bunch of the podcasts, I don't think it's uncommon for Aaron and I to need to become pretty frustrated with each other before we recognize a deeper paradigm that we haven't really uncovered. After the podcast we shared a pitcher, ordered a few burgers with the rest of the TwinsCentric guys, share a couple of more pitchers and talked through all kinds of stuff.

