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Everything posted by John Bonnes
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Aaron and John are joined at stops along the Grand Drunk Railroad by special guests David Brauer of MinnPost, Jack Moore of Sports on Earth, and Kate Agnew of Girls in Tech to talk about the Twins' season ticket holder survey, hanging onto Josh Willingham, maximizing your investment in tickets, moving to Minnesota from Wisconsin, the value of pitch-framing, fitting the lineup pieces together for 2015, the Brewers' closing window, and fighting for "official couple" status. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
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Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason
John Bonnes replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would agree with that. It seems like it would be closer to $100M. I'd want to break down that analysis a little, but off the top of my head, that seems more likely. -
Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason
John Bonnes replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey. If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year. Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008. I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M. And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers. -
What willl it take to make this year a successful year?
John Bonnes replied to MichiganTwins's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I've been meaning to write about this, but haven't had a chance. Let's break this down a bit: If the primary purpose of the season was to develop players for future years, let's take a look at the players by their importance and see if they developed or not. Here are the eleven players that I would consider most important for the future of the franchise, meaning these are players with high ceilings who are most important to develop: Arcia Buxton Diamond Hicks Kyle Gibson Mauer May Meyer Perkins Sano Worley To be honest, I'm not sure if Worley, May and Diamond belong in that list or the list below, but let's keep them in there since the rotation is such an area of weakness. I count: - 3 that took a clear step forward - Arcia, Buxton, Sano - 5 that made sufficient progress or stayed on track - Gibson, Meyer, May, Mauer, Perkins - 3 that didn't - Worley, Diamond, Hicks So that's not a bad for the organization. (And it doesn't include adding another such guy - Kohl Stewart.) If I look at the next group of players - players that have a chance at being a regular contributor, it's not too bad either: - 4 took steps forward - Dozier, Deduno (pending his shoulder), Fien and Rosario - 2 are still on track - Burton and Florimon (kinda) - 3 disappointed - Parmelee, Plouffe, Hendriks And that doesn't count several names who I wouldn't have put on the list, but who also took steps forward - Thielbar, Colabello, Tonkin, Herrman and Josmil Pinto. I don't know if anyone, including Terry Ryan, would qualify this year as a success. But I think more progress has been made than is generally acknowledged. -
Gleeman and the Geek, Ep 110: Backyard Bash and Mauer's Concussion
John Bonnes posted an article in Twins
Aaron and John take the podcast to Summit Brewing's "Backyard Bash" and talk about the status of Joe Mauer's concussion, position switching Hall of Fame credentials, Josmil Pinto's hot start for the Minnesota Twins, top prospects going to the Arizona Fall League, a new "official couple of the podcast" contender, Trevor Plouffe's ticking clock, the minor league affiliates' playoff runs, mailbag questions from listeners, and sweating to death. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] -
Article: What to do with Trevor Plouffe?
John Bonnes replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
+1. Or put him in the DH role vs lefties, or in a 1B platoon, or as a right-handed bench bat. His splits are enormous. Even in this year, he's hitting .300+ against left-handed pitches and 859 OPS. He is a platoon player, and a good one, in that he really mashes lefties. Rather than stretch him to the point of being worthless, the Twins need to accept it and utilize that. -
~ sponsored by Ticket King ~ There are those who rejoice at the end of a dismal baseball season. I’m not one of them. September provides some of the nicest weather Minnesota can dish out, a last hurrah before we face a six month frigid baseball vacuum. So grab a seat while you still can. We’ll help out by getting you close to some possible September callups who are looking to make a last good impression, while the weather is warm and the grass is still green.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Frontier Field (in Rochester, NY) The Twins AAA affiliate had an exciting year. After starting the season 2-12, the Rochester Red Wings charged back, gaining the inside track on the Wild Card by mid August. But they lost six in a row, leaving them to chase the Tigers’ AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. But the Red Wings won their last three games of the year and when Norfolk stumbled in extra-innings on the last day, the Red Wings were celebrating a return to the International League postseason. They’re facing the Pawtucket Red Sox this week in the playoffs. What this means is that most of the Twins’ September callups have been delayed. The Twins (justifiably) feel that the kids will get a good experience in the IL playoffs, and it wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the team to pull a half dozen of their best players. So what you’re seeing below are still guesses, even though we’re nearly a week into September. It could be days or even as long as two more weeks before you get to see them at Target Field. Section 5, 12, 109, 119 (Scott Diamond & Cole De Vries) Last year was a dream season for these two. When the Twins badly needed starting pitching, Diamond (3.54 ERA) and De Vries (4.11 ERA) stepped forward to help stabilize the rotation. Alternately, this year has been a nightmare. De Vries has spent the whole year in the minors and been plagued with arm injuries; first it was his forearm and then his elbow. He recently returned to the Rochester rotation and threw seven scoreless innings, so there is hope that he’s finally recovered. If you’ve watched the Twins this year, you’ve seen Diamond. In fact, maybe you think you’ve seen too much of Diamond and his 5.52 ERA. But he’s sparkled like his namesake since being demoted to Rochester with a 2.41 ERA and five quality starts in six outings. Perhaps he’s found his way out of his sophomore slump. Section 8 and 9 (Josmil Pinto) Here’s a name you won’t have to wait for as he was called up a day before September, when Justin Morneau was traded to Pittsburgh. With seven hits in his first 10 at-bats, most fans have figured out what Pinto’s minor league track record shows – this guy can hit. In limited time (19 games) at AAA he hit .314 with a 819 OPS. In AA, he hit .307. In High A, .282. The question that has dogged him is just how good he is defensively. You’ll want to pony up for those seats behind the plate to see how he’s framing pitches and get a sense from the pitcher just how much he likes throwing to him. Pinto has already taken a couple steps forward this year. This is his chance to show he can take the last one. Section 114, 110 or 129 (Eduardo Escobar) Escobar made an immediate impression in April, hitting .378 with power as a reserve. Then came May, where he had four hits in 47 at-bats. By the time he was sent down in July, his batting average had slumped to .214. But in case you haven’t been paying attention, that’s not bad for a Twins infielder. Pedro Florimon’s batting average has slipped all year and currently sits at just .225. And at third base, Trevor Plouffe is only hitting .243, though he seems to have found a bit of a groove lately. Meanwhile, Escobar looks like a different guy in AAA-Rochester. His overall batting average - .307 - is impressive enough. But maybe even more encouraging is that he’s walking a lot more, almost twice as much as in previous AAA stints. Add them up and he has a .380 on-base percentage over 43 games for the Red Wings. So take your pick – get a seat close to home plate so you can see if hit batting eye has improved, or sit further away and check out his range at shortstop. Hopefully, you’ll see a different guy than you did in May. Section 236 (Michael Tonkin) Tonkin has lately rocketed through the Twins minor league system. He started 2012 at Low A, so he’s progressed four levels in two years. He’s been up with the Twins for a couple of cups of coffee, but most of his year has been spent in Rochester. He’s been dominant, but since the middle of August, he’s been much more hittable, giving up 11 hits and 8 runs in just five innings. Is he tiring? You’ll want to look him over in the bullpen to judge for yourself. Last Chance For some of these guys, September feels like a chance at redemption and for some of them, it represents the last step towards a dream. For seventeen more games, you can get a front row seat for that drama. In fact, just like for some of these players, this could be your last chance.
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Aaron and John say goodbye to KFAN by broadcasting live from the Minnesota State Fair and topics included the Twins trading Justin Morneau to the Pirates for Alex Presley and (maybe) Duke Welker, not trading Josh Willingham to the Orioles, Josmil Pinto's call-up and future role, the level of optimism surrounding Brian Dozier, rebuilding versus scorching the earth, and how not to freak out over technical difficulties. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
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Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press had a couple of different tweets today about Aaron Hicks in Rochester: "Big game for Aaron Hicks, including game tying triple in the 4th, helps lift ROC 3-2 over Scranton. Still 1 GB on final day of reg season." "Aaron Hicks is 7 for 15 over last 4 games. Pushing for a callup?" I wonder if any of our minor league gurus have any thoughts on this? I also wonder if it's too little too late, or if a postseason push led by Hicks could propel him back to Target Field (as well as the Red Wings to a playoff run.)
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Jim Souhan has a fairly meaty - or at least comprehensive - column about the Twins today. Among his recommendations: 1) Move Maeur to 1B 2) Call up Sano for September and 3) Consider signing AJ Pierzynski to play 1B. He thinks it's time to move Mauer because he sees a replacement on the Twins roster: Souhan: With Morneau gone, it's time for Mauer to move to first | Star Tribune Personally, I read most of the situations he does with an opposite interpretation, but that's what makes these topics interesting. On a side note, I've got to say, I think I'll be perpetually puzzled by the interest some people have had in moving Mauer from catcher since Day 1. First he was too tall. Then the knee. Then the back. Now the head. The attitude seems to be that if he's eventually going to have to move (and almost all decent hitters who are catchers eventually do have to move) he should move sooner rather than later. I don't get it. I'd love to have a reasoned discussion about this.
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I expected my head and heart would battle about trading Justin Morneau. But I didn't think that my heart would focus more on the future than the past. I expected my heart to focus on Morneau's glorious history with the Twins. If Morneau never plays again for the them (and I'm fairly sure he won't in the near future), he'll still rank fifth all-time in RBI, fourth all-time in slugging percentage and third all-time in home runs, as well as being one of just five Twins to have won an American League Most Valuable Player award. Despite having his career impacted by a concussion problem that cost him at least a year-and-a-half of his prime, he's a sure-fire inductee to the Twins Hall of Fame. But in Major League Baseball, a player is more than just his performance on the field. He is also attached to a contract and that contract affects how desirable that player is. In Morneau's case, he was attached to a contract that paid him $14M this year, or approximately $2.3M per month, which is an amount that far exceeded his production for most of the year. And that contract became at least as important as his performance for the last couple of months. For instance, two weeks ago Justin Morneau passed through waivers without being claimed by any team. Waivers is process by which a player is offered to each team, and if any team wants him, they can "claim" him. If they claimed Morneau, they risked the Twins just giving them Morneau and his contract, without any compensation. But nobody claimed Morneau. The risk of being stuck with Morneau's contract outweighed the value they expected to gain on the field, even for those teams chasing an postseason spot. In that light, my head is telling me that yesterday's trade is a victory for the Twins. They took a player who two weeks ago was passed over by the Pirates and turned him into an outfielder who is roughly equivalent to Clete Thomas and a somewhat promising right-handed reliever. This is a better return than Twins fans could have expected if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract. "...if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract." That's the part my heart is having trouble getting past. I'm not someone who rants about the Pohlad's billions and wonder why it isn't spent on my baseball team. I believe in budgets. I believe that a fiscally responsible business is admirable, and in fact necessary for it to truly be healthy long-term. But payroll was cut by $20 million this year. And this week they traded away Jamey Carroll for cash. And now the Twins traded away Morneau for a couple of fairly fungible prospects - which allows them to pocket another $2.6M. And my heart can't help but wonder if the Twins were more willing to eat that money - money which they certainly had in their budget already - what they could have received in return. The Pirates have some very tempting pitchers in their farm system, even if you overlook the top three names that would have been untouchable for any organization. And it's not like the money wasn't important to the Pirates. They admitted as much: If it was important to the Pirates, it must have been at least as important to the Twins. But why? They can't spend more on the amateur draft or international signings. They're both capped. They haven't bought any big name international free agents. They had trouble buying free agents last offseason. They even admitted they had budgeted tens of millions of dollars that they didn't spend. As a fan, it feels like the money is more important than the product. It feels like my favorite team's GM is more proud of the cash he saves ownership than the team he puts on the field. And it feels like trading away Justin Morneau was more about saving a few million dollars than trying to build for the future. So while my heart misses Morneau and what he did, what is really troubling it is the future. Are Terry Ryan's priorities in the right place? Is he ever going to be able to use the revenues that Target Field has provided. Does he fully understand the limits he faces when trying to spend money to build the farm system? That's the battle that my heart is waging right now with my head. Despite my head's best efforts, my heart is winning.
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Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Scooped ya - by four whole minutes. :-) -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In the same story, for anyone who thinks that Pittsburgh didn't really care about the $2.265M that is still owed to Morneau, there is this quote: I don't know that I'm disappointed with the return (though I'm not thrilled). But what really bugs me about this trade is that they didn't eat any of that money. It appears that was a motivating factor and I can't imagine it didn't play into decreasing the market for Morneau. -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's confirmed: Pirates acquire Justin Morneau from Twins for stretch run | MLB.com: News -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Per uber-contributor Jeremy Nygaard, Ryan watched Duke Welker pitch last weekend. "With TR in attendance, both Cumpton and Oliver were bad last weekend. One pitcher that wasn't: Duke Welker. #MnTwins" And here's his tweet-length scouting report: Welker is a AAA closer who has a mid-90s fastball and a solid low-80s slider. Got 8 outs, 5 by K last weekend. Also, he's 6-7. Two important notes: 1) I've seen no credible link that the PTBNL is Welker and 2) Obviously, you should be following Jeremy on Twitter. -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And apparantly I'm too late - the PTBNL has been named? A poster says it is Duke Welker, who hasn't been a starting pitcher since A ball. He's a RHed reliever. Sigh. Does anyone have a link to this report? I'm not seeing it anywhere. -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
John Bonnes replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For those wanting to talk about the Player To Be Named Later, I've started up another thread to specifically talk about that subject: http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/8656-morneau-ptbnl-speculation-wishes.html#post159666 -
Here were the top 10 Pirates prospects from BA. (If someone has their top 30, I'd love to see it: 1. Gerrit Cole, rhp 2. Jameson Taillon, rhp 3. Luis Heredia, rhp 4. Gregory Polanco, of 5. Alen Hanson, ss 6. Josh Bell, of 7. Kyle McPherson, rhp 8. Justin Wilson, lhp 9. Barrett Barnes, of 10. Clay Holmes, rhp I think we can safely say the top three are off limits, but all of the pitchers on that list were at least on track to be starters as of the beginning of this year. For comparison sake, here was the Top 10 list from Baseball Prospectus: 1. RHP Gerrit Cole 2. RHP Jameson Taillon 3. CF Gregory Polanco 4. RHP Luis Heredia 5. IF/LF Alen Hanson 6. OF Josh Bell 7. C Wyatt Mathisen 8. RHP Tyler Glasnow 9. RHP Nick Kingham 10. OF Barrett Barnes The top 6 line up pretty well, but 7-10 change and includes 2 more pitchers. both of whom are also starters. That gives 5 starting pitching prospects that aren't Cole/Taillon/Heredia but could still be regarded as significant. Here's a couple of snippets on each: Kyle McPherson - RHP, 25yo, AAA - underwent Tommy John surgery this July. Justin Wilson - LHP, 24, Majors - has been pitching as a reliever for the Pirates. 2.01 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, 53K/24BB in 67IP. Started last year in AAA. Clay Holmes - RHP, 20yo, Low A - Starting and has a 4.19 ERA with 85K in 116 IP (and 67! walks) Tyler Glasnow - RHP, 20yo, Low A - 2.18 ERA, 164(!)K in 111.1 IP with 61 BB. Holy Shamoly. Nick Kingham - RHP, 21yo, AA - Breezed through High A, has 2.70 ERA with 69K in 73IP with 30 BB in AA. I think we can safely say it isn't McPherson and I don't think it can be Wilson. Glasnow would seem to good to be true. I'd be pretty happy with Kingham. Anyone who knows the minors better than me (which are a lot of you) want to give me your guesses or wishes?

