John Bonnes

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1159-GATG-Ep-66-Post-mortem-Starter-Jackets-and-World-Series-Odds

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

[video=youtube;IwDMFC1EK0g] Aaron & John are joined by Dana, Heather & Chris to discuss Starter jackets, anti-semitism & World Series odds.

I like them both very much. I'm glad this worked out so well. I presume (I have not talked to Joe) that he wanted this move so he could spend more time with his young kids. And Phil is a baseball guy through and through. If you ever meet him, ask him about where he's seen World Series games.

Can someone please writeup a tweet-length summary of the Mariners prospects we're talking about? I'm just not that familiar with them.

Well, I'd LOVE him. A move from the NL to the AL gives me a little pause, but he had a pretty nice stretch for the Rangers between his first couple and last couple starts. I gotta say, if you can't excited about Dempster, who can you get excited about? We're talking about a guy who has thrown nearly 600 innings the last three years, mostly for a dismal team, mostly with a sub-4 ERA. His K/9 has been over 8 for those three years too. For chrissakes, the RANGERS went out and acquired this guy last year, so they sure don't think he was washed up.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1156-Gathering-The-Pitching-Rumors-For-The-Hot-Stove

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.

First, thanks Dave for starting this. You beat me to it by quite a bit. Second, anyone know any DBacks fans (or writers or communities) that they can send a link of this thread to and get some responses from the otehr side? Time for the meat: Hicks is likely not enough, but I wouldn't be shocked if he could be a central part of the package, and I wonder how Twins fans feel about that. The DBacks are seeminly looking for infield help, but with Chris Young gone I can't believe (public protestations not withstanding) that they have that much faith in Eaton or Pollock to be a long-term answer in center field. Hicks is the whole package and close to ready and could be the answer there for a long time. So how would we feel about a deal that involves Hicks and maybe another guy or so that isn't in the top 7: Kepler, some of the new relief arms, Wimmers, that slugger in Beloit that came back from the suspension...somoene like that?

Really good insight on David O'Brien, Ben. Thanks. And it's great that you are able to respond to some of these questions. It's worth noting on similar threads. It might pay when there is a thread involving another team that we reach out to any fans/writers of that team with a link to give their thoughts.

First, I'm a little disturbed that getting right-handed power power back would be a deal-breaker, so I'm going to gloss over that. OK, let's break this down..... In the Handbook, the pitchers Braves could offer are in this order... "Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen." No on Jurrjens (obviously) or Hanson or Maholm, or at least not straight up. - Delgado....I'd think about that one a lot, though I might be a little worried that he would be another Frankie - just shaky enough control to doom him in this organization. But I'd be tempted. - Minor - I think I would trade him for Minor straight up. I think he's figured it out. Not a #1 buy, but a solid #3 that they can ride for years. - Teheran - I know he's more highly regarded, but I wouldn't trade for him right now. I'm worried about him. - Hudson - I think it's a moot point - Medlen - Well, sure, duh.

Aaron and I have argued a bit on the relative value of Jeremy Guthrie, and I don't see why we should have all the fun.... How would you feel about the Twins signing Guthrie to the amount that is in the Handbook: 2-years/$16M. (Let's ignore, for now, that he thinks he's going to get 3/34, for the purposes of this discussion.) Here's his baseball-reference page. Here's his Fan Graphs page. On the one hand, he's pretty consistently thrown about 200 innings per season with an ERA usually around 4. (Since 2007, when started in the majors full time, his ERA is 4.03 IF you throw out his crappy stint in COL last season.) On the other hand, he's 33 years old and his career strikeout rate is 5.4 K/9. His career xFIP is 4.63. I would welcome him at that Handbook's price. I would not welcome him at the price he's looking for. I understand the concern about his "stuff." But I think there's room for an inning eater on this staff.

Re: Arcia - I can see both sides. I wonder what he's doing this winter, and if that will play into the decision. If you read the interview with Terry Ryan, he sure seemed to suggest that they feel like they've moved him up pretty fast recently and seemed to be wondering if starting him at AAA was moving him too fast. One thing that might play into the decision is that there isn't necessarily a good reason to move him up there if he's going to need to sit there waiting all season. There is already a logjam, though I hope that will be cleared with a trade this offsesason. But I suspect they think Hicks is next in line, and then Arcia. That's not necessarily a reason to not promote him to AAA, but it does relax the urgency of moving him up the ladder.

I still think I have a box of clipping from 1987 in my basement someplace, but I wish, wish, really wish that I had the stack of them I had when I was following that run from afar. I didn't bring them back, and I'd sure love to see them again. It's weird how holding something like that can bring back memories.

These are fair points, and you could probably take them a step further by looking at Dozier's career numbers. But I'll also give Dozier this - I think they Twins handled him last year about as poorly as they could, and it sure seems like a lot of that was driven by Gardenhire's mancrush on him.

I don't have any inside information on this, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Arcia start the year in AA and I think Berrios will not be in a full season league next year - at least not to start the season.

I've never hunted (though I would like to) but I used to fish a lot as a teenager with my grandpa, so I know what you mean about having a lot of time to think quietly. In response to your topics... 1. I BET you're thinking about that. My only advice: marriage is the foundation and the kids are the house. Don't ever risk the foundation for the house. You will be tempted. 2. Well, of course. Kudos for admitting it. 3. Don't worry too much about Mauer's money. The Twins can build a good contending team on the remaining $70M, especially if they get to starts with a catcher that can bat 3rd. 4. Do you bring a camera that has any kind of zoom? 5. I look forward to the next post.

Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Buster Olney reports that Jeremy Bonderman is coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery. Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez is also contemplating a comeback after not pitching professionally last year. Both have some intrigue... Vasquez is 36, and wasn't signed last season, but that was a weird situation, becasue he sure didnt struggle in 2011. He had a 3.69 ERA and threw 192.2 innings for the Marlins, which is a hell of a good year. I always think of him as a National League pitcher, because he only had one good year in the American League, but that also could be coincidence. Bonderman had the misfortune of coming of age during the Tigers miserable years and getting thrust into the majors before he seemingly was ready. He had a 5.53 ERA in Detroit in 2010, but pitched 171 innings. Last I heard he was negotiating with Cleveland before 2011, but dropped off the map after that. He says he's only looking for a minor league deal with a spring invite. I have to think the Twins would be an enticing opportunity for him, given all the opportunities in their rotation. By the way - he only just turned 30 years old. I'm sure neither of these guys is going to excite people much and likely won't make a huge difference in 2013. But I'll add this: I wouldn't be shocked if "semi-retired players" are a significant market inefficiency within MLB. It seems like every year there are a couple of guys that we think are going to get a decent deal, but they over play their hand, and for whatever reason (probably pride?) end up not signing before April. But rather than sit out a year and then get back into the game, they are never heard from again. That seems like it's something a smart team might try to take advantage of.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1150-The-Case-For-Trading-Span

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.