Trov

I did not get a chance to watch him yesterday, but I do enjoy a good pitcher over just a thrower. Pitchers age well, throwers do not. A pitcher with good change of speeds and movement can get good hitters out. Sure, will he hang a pitch from time to time, all do. I love listening to Katt do announcing as he talks about using the whole strike zone, something that fell out of favor for down in the zone sinkers for ahwile, but now is back to pitching up at top, if not out of the zone. Mixing speed, location, and movement will keep hitters off balance, unless they are the Astros and can see the future.

Clearly the difference is the timing of the type of seasons the player was coming off of. Sox hoping Moncada will continue to improve and will come out to be a bargain, but if last season was more a blip and not the norm for Moncada, they will regret the contract. For Twins, they took a chance on two guys that had shown some level of promise, but were on low years. The players did not bet on themselves and took the money when it was there. Both had bounce back years, that the front office was expecting and the players may have lost out on significantly more money, but hard to say no to life changing money, when at any moment an injury can end your career, or drop your value.

This day in age, I do not think any prospect gets blocked. They may be slowed to debut, but outright blocked no. Sure, Kirloff was in a different organization would there be more of a push to have him make the club, at least based on his early spring numbers and prospect status, most likely. But, we have three decent hitting outfielders and two top fielding at their respective spots. However, if he keeps raking early in season, he will get his chance because he will force it. The only reason he won't is if everyone is healthy and all crushing. There will always be a spot to be found if you can help the team win. No team will ever sit player simply because they have a MLB player at their position, they will find a spot. Now, if the prospect is not forcing the hand, then should they come up, no so then they are not getting blocked either.

I like the Littell pick. He was one of those starter or bullpen guys, and history has shown if you borderline, you normally excel in bullpen when you go all in as a pen guy. It is easier now a days to swallow that role, as the money is shifting a bit even to set up guys. In the past, all the money went to starters, even back end guys, and except for top closers, pen guys did not get paid much. Now that is shifting some, some guys are more willing to embrace the pen role sooner in their career. I hope littell is that guy.

First, this comment is based on my understanding of how chase percentage is determined. That being, if the hitter had not swung, what the umpire "should" have called it based on the electronic zone. If my understanding is accurate I have a problem with the assumption that chasing is a bad thing fundamentally. Until the electronic zone comes into play taking a borderline pitch that should be a ball still has huge risk of taking a strike. So the real question is what kind of pitches are being chased. Just as others have commented on, chasing a borderline fastball is not such a bad thing where contact percentage is very high. I mean if the ball is half an inch off the plate, does it really change the odds of hitting it hard, most likely not. However, chasing a ball high around the neck, bouncing in the dirt, or way off the plate reduces contact percentage and more importantly hard hit contact significantly. Those are the pitches Buxton needs to cut down on. Chase percentage does not take into account how bad the chase was. You point to Garver very low chase percentage, but he made a point of saying he was going to swing at middle middle as much as possible and leave boarder line pitches. I have not confirmed this, but he most likely took a lot of strikes on that edge of the zone, not saying he should have swung, but he made choice to risk of a called strike. The other issue with the stat of chase percentage as a whole is it does not address when the chase was. For example, if the chase is even a boarder line chase with no strikes that may be something to address, even worse if it is a bad chase with no strikes. However, a boarder line chase with two strikes fighting off a pitch that could be called a strike, to me, is a good chase. Therefore, not all chases are created equal. Also, chasing a boarder line fastball off the plate that gets driven hard is not a bad chase, but taking that pitch that gets called a strike, because umpires get those calls wrong at about a 50% clip, is a bad take because now fall behind in a count. One final thing. Changing a players approach that has worked, at least good, for their career does not always improve their numbers. Of course, if you can get a player to stop swinging at pitches they cannot hit is a good idea, but just saying reducing overall chase percentage will be good results is flawed.

I would not look at total war for the best trio, although it is a way to measure. However, when you look at Santana led teams he was so high that even the low Silva still made it look better, but I would take the overall 91 team over the 2004 because the third guy was vastly different. Sure the number 1 was better, but I would take slightly less valuable number 1 and higher number 3. That is just me.

I think the prospects he impacts the most is on the prospects willingness to listen. I think it is great the Twins have targeted vets that like to teach young guys. Not all like to. Some guys react better to active players telling them something than coaches, even if both telling them same thing.

If they were looking to have back up CF I think they would have sought one on market and not trading for one. There were a few that could have been Kepler level defense on the open market they did not seek. I doubt they go this route.

How about this? Every series is 3 game series, you get a point for winning the series and three points for sweeping. No more win or loss just points. Every team plays every team for a home and away series, this would actually increase total games to 174. Both leagues play by same rules, do not care which is adopted, but play same rules. Then top 16 teams make playoffs based on total points and ranked 1-16, no reseeding based on round. It starts with best of 3 for first round, best of 5 second round, best of 7 third round, then best of 7 again for final round. Finally, do away with extra innings, but have a HR off. You pick your hitter, but each one can only be used 1 time until all others used, and your BP pitcher then throws pitches for 1 min to the hitter, who ever has most HR that team wins. If tied after 1 round, then do a race around the bases, after spinning around at homeplate for 10 seconds before you take off, make it a relay race including coaches and bat boys.

I think the most important thing is to get players that agree with sticking with the process. Baseball in the last decade has been in a transition of "old school" into analytics and advanced stats. I love the fact the new group uses things like spray charts, tendencies, and willing to buck the trend of the "old school" norms. How many times I would get furious with Gardy and his "old school" comments about oppisite handed pitchers, despite many times that pitcher having reverse splits, but the "old school" book says have opposite hitters. The classic, he is our guy or he is due against him, only to have the pitcher give up a HR to a guy that has owned him. At least now the people making those calls look at things like that and not just plug and play.

I would have to do a dive back to the original posts when the trade was first announced a couple weeks ago. My post was a little bit of hyperbole I admit, but the point was people are acting like we are missing out on a huge piece, when we really have no clue what we are missing out on.

The problem I have with this article is using only WAR to compare the trades. The two CF for pitcher trades is not balanced due to fact May became pen pitcher and a decent one at that and should help us this year. Let me ask this, would you rather have May now or Revere? Pretty sure we could snatch up Revere somewhere. Also, even if you wanted the production over that time, how much of a difference would Revere made over that time? The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge. Clearly the worst was the Matt Capps trade, which was another Bill Smith blunder. He was part of a group that over valued the closer and the save. No way would any team now a days trade a top catching prospect for a below average bullpen guy, that just happened to pile up a lot of counting stats. It showed how badly the team needed to embrace a new line of thinking. It was a terrible attempt at a win now move. Even if Joe could have caught during much of the time Ramos was a young catcher, they still could have flipped him for more than Capps.

What I find interesting is how many fans are operating under the assumption that Graderol was going to be the most dominate pitcher in all of baseball, or at least some seem to think that. He was a prospect that can throw over 100, that is all. He put up big numbers in low level of minors. He did well in his short time in the majors last year, but that does not mean anything. How many rookie pitchers put up good numbers then never make adjustments when the hitters do? Sure, he may very well end up being a top pitcher, but he was not the second coming of Nolan Ryan.

The fact of the matter is, when it comes to bullpen, the Twins will continue to rotate arms from AAA. They will not be able to use DL as much now that it is back to 15 day instead of 10, but until they either go back to number of options, not years, players will get shuffled back and forth. So expect possibly all the above play at one point or another. Also, do not be surprised if Twins use up one for early in season, then when scouting figures him out he gets released. That has happened a lot lately too.

Now I will not claim to be a super analytic guy, but does WAR not stand for wins above replacement? To me, that means replacement is the "average" right? So does that not mean having 1.9 - 2.4 WAR mean he is inherently above average by definition? I mean if not, then who are they being replaced with a tee, a pitching machine, a bp pitcher? To me the stat must be flawed if 0 is not an average pitcher, but just my two cents on the WAR stat.

I echo what may have said. He truly is not sorry, because "flags fly forever." If he, and all the other players that have and most likely will say they are sorry truly was, they would have pulled the plug before it started. They only stopped because other teams started to figure it out and would change up sequences. Rich Hill, even said he would change up sequence every 6 pitches, and that game he dominated the Astros. So they got to point they started guessing. Teams learned what was going on sign stealing, they just did not know the extent of technology that was being used. I would not be upset if Twins released Margo for his roll in it, much as managers got the axe. I think it would be refreshing if someone from the team just said, no I am not sorry we did it, we won so there. I doubt anyone will, but you know they are all thinking it.

I wonder if the Twins push him like they have with recent high draft picks. The old guard would keep him in extended spring training and then GCL with a move up to elizabethan, but Falvine, has been much more aggressive early in careers with high picks moving them up faster. I bet, unless he just looks super over matched, he starts in ceder rapids.

Depending on how the deal was set, if the physicals are failed or medicals show known issues by Twins but not known to Red Sox, the Sox could back out of deal. However, they will have to ask question if they want to, and MLB will have to see if they can. A lot will depend on what Red Sox learned they did not know before the offer, and if Twins knew it. Three ways it could be resolved, deal as proposed and no one budges. Deal blows up and no one moves anywhere. Either Dodgers or Twins throw more in for deal to Sox. In reality, the trade is two separate deals being contingent on the other being completed. If Sox can back out, they will have to ask themselves if they want to. Rumors of this type of deal had been going on for weeks, so clearly they want to move Betts and Price. If they back out, is the San Diego deal any better? Will try to call the bluff of Dodgers if Dodgers do not want to throw in more? Will Twins want to throw in more to get Matea? So many questions.

The write of up prospects that peaks my interest the most is Celestino. He is young, fast, can field, and seems to be able to hit. He started off slow, and one question I have is, was this his first full season ball in the states? That may explain the slow start to have to play in early spring in the north. It may have been colder there than he ever dealt with. Also, the adjustment to full season ball. Like the bounce back later season performance.

I liked the article. It goes deep into analytics, that my guess the front office saw too. I like the trade overall, and only time will tell if it was a mistake. The Twins know more about Graterol than anyone. His velocity is eye popping, but so is his lack of health. I doubt he will ever have long term success as a starter due to fact he will not stay healthy. He may have good stint as reliever, but you need to give something to get something. To the people that think we could have flipped just Graterol for a teams ace should never be a GM for a team. There is plenty to question about Graterol and he is not considered a top 10 pitching prospect in baseball, only #53 in all of baseball, according to MLB site, have not checked others. So why would a team give up an "ace" for not even a top 10 pitching prospect. I think Twins fans have been so starved for pitching prospects that we are over valuing him. Maybe Graterol stays healthy and becomes the best pitcher in the game for a period, or maybe he continues to have arm/shoulder issues, and can never stay healthy, most likely he is some where in between. Maybe Maeda flops with Twins and they lost out on Graterol for nothing, it happens, but at least this FO is trying to use their prospects to improve the team now.

I am a fan of the signing and hope it works out. I also hope that if it does not it does not stop future attempts. I know many fans that are happy now will flip if Donaldson gets hurt, or fails to perform. But, who else were they going to spend the money on? Not saying spend just to spend, but this should improve the team, and if he loses a step at 3rd by end of deal, as long as his bat is still there he can move to first or DH. I hope this does silence the critics that FO just putting on show for the Pohlads but never were serious. It is not always the money that players decided to go to particular teams, in this case it sounds like it was though.

In my opinion the age issue is that baseball never figured out who was a player that knew how to play versus a player that was just that athletic in their young years and prime. What do I mean by this? Every player eventually reaches a point where they cannot get by on their individual athletic talent, but they can still learn to win. Pitchers are normally the biggest ones that run into this issue. Once they lose velocity they do not know how to actually pitch, ie mixing location, speeds, movement. Some learn how to do this an become a great junk ball pitcher late in their 30's and early 40's. Speed helps, but really keeping hitters off balance is key to pitching well. So if the pitchers they are bringing in at late age can do this, then go for it. Hitters, I believe, is more about work off the field that keeps them being able to play. If they can stay in shape they can keep playing late into career. The biggest problem is some do not put in the work needed, or their body just cannot keep up if they are putting the work in. They did not forget how to hit, but they may lose some bat speed. I think to know if a player can play late into their 30's is what kind of work ethic do they have, and how did they get by early in career. It was mentioned long ago on this site, but Buxton is a guy that really should not be extended, unless he can show that he can hit without using his speed as main attribute. This is because he will lose that speed when he ages, everyone does, and since he gets by on that mostly I would expect big drop off. It is not about signing and going for young players, but it is seeing through the number and figure out who will make the adjustments as they get older.

I think this is good article. The real question was how important is infield defense not just for Twins, but generally? Players are trying to not hit the ball on the ground anymore, at all. Gone are the days of slap hitting and bunting players that will steal bases. If the pitchers also do not pitch for ground balls that combo will lead to very few hit. However, if those few that are hit are never turned into outs then this is a bad thing. It does come down to who scores more, so sure, if we could get a great fielder, but cannot ever get on base, are they better than someone who may allow a few more hits or runners on via error, but if he can increase total runs more than he allow he is plus player. I am actually worried about Sano at first. Hopefully, he spends the offseason and spring training taking a ton of bad throws. In my opinion, the most underrated position where a good defender is needed is first base. Many people think it is just stand and catch the ball, which if there a good through that is mostly it. However, a good fielding first baseman can save so many errors, and make those great diving plays by other infielders into good plays. How often do you see a great dive and a off target throw, but a good first baseman saves it.

I know it is the off season, but a little early to be talking trade deadline deals, in my opinion. So much will go into that decision, not only how the Twins are performing, but health, how the targets are performing, how their teams are doing, any prospects that emerge, ect. To me, unless they would be expected game one, two, or three, pitcher, no need to bring in anyone. If you make a rent a player trade at deadline it will be for trying to win in playoffs and if they will not be a top 3 pitcher, what is point? You either go big, or stand pat.

Cruz by far is the best just because of how he impacted the team as a whole. Santana was a nice one as well, but the team did not really have that much success during his time. Big Mike might become a good one down the road. You pointed the biggest problem with FA is the high pay for not that great of results down the road. Many times you are only getting a couple of years worth the value you are paying them. Not that Twins will ever flirt with tax level payroll, but top teams are starting to cut payroll because of it, and regretting some of the signings they have made recently. It is interesting to see how some of the top signers in recent years have not lived up to their own contracts and other players making much less have higher WARs. I have always said, FA should only supplement your team, not build it.