Trov

I think the most important thing is to get players that agree with sticking with the process. Baseball in the last decade has been in a transition of "old school" into analytics and advanced stats. I love the fact the new group uses things like spray charts, tendencies, and willing to buck the trend of the "old school" norms. How many times I would get furious with Gardy and his "old school" comments about oppisite handed pitchers, despite many times that pitcher having reverse splits, but the "old school" book says have opposite hitters. The classic, he is our guy or he is due against him, only to have the pitcher give up a HR to a guy that has owned him. At least now the people making those calls look at things like that and not just plug and play.

I would have to do a dive back to the original posts when the trade was first announced a couple weeks ago. My post was a little bit of hyperbole I admit, but the point was people are acting like we are missing out on a huge piece, when we really have no clue what we are missing out on.

The problem I have with this article is using only WAR to compare the trades. The two CF for pitcher trades is not balanced due to fact May became pen pitcher and a decent one at that and should help us this year. Let me ask this, would you rather have May now or Revere? Pretty sure we could snatch up Revere somewhere. Also, even if you wanted the production over that time, how much of a difference would Revere made over that time? The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge. Clearly the worst was the Matt Capps trade, which was another Bill Smith blunder. He was part of a group that over valued the closer and the save. No way would any team now a days trade a top catching prospect for a below average bullpen guy, that just happened to pile up a lot of counting stats. It showed how badly the team needed to embrace a new line of thinking. It was a terrible attempt at a win now move. Even if Joe could have caught during much of the time Ramos was a young catcher, they still could have flipped him for more than Capps.

What I find interesting is how many fans are operating under the assumption that Graderol was going to be the most dominate pitcher in all of baseball, or at least some seem to think that. He was a prospect that can throw over 100, that is all. He put up big numbers in low level of minors. He did well in his short time in the majors last year, but that does not mean anything. How many rookie pitchers put up good numbers then never make adjustments when the hitters do? Sure, he may very well end up being a top pitcher, but he was not the second coming of Nolan Ryan.

The fact of the matter is, when it comes to bullpen, the Twins will continue to rotate arms from AAA. They will not be able to use DL as much now that it is back to 15 day instead of 10, but until they either go back to number of options, not years, players will get shuffled back and forth. So expect possibly all the above play at one point or another. Also, do not be surprised if Twins use up one for early in season, then when scouting figures him out he gets released. That has happened a lot lately too.

Now I will not claim to be a super analytic guy, but does WAR not stand for wins above replacement? To me, that means replacement is the "average" right? So does that not mean having 1.9 - 2.4 WAR mean he is inherently above average by definition? I mean if not, then who are they being replaced with a tee, a pitching machine, a bp pitcher? To me the stat must be flawed if 0 is not an average pitcher, but just my two cents on the WAR stat.

I echo what may have said. He truly is not sorry, because "flags fly forever." If he, and all the other players that have and most likely will say they are sorry truly was, they would have pulled the plug before it started. They only stopped because other teams started to figure it out and would change up sequences. Rich Hill, even said he would change up sequence every 6 pitches, and that game he dominated the Astros. So they got to point they started guessing. Teams learned what was going on sign stealing, they just did not know the extent of technology that was being used. I would not be upset if Twins released Margo for his roll in it, much as managers got the axe. I think it would be refreshing if someone from the team just said, no I am not sorry we did it, we won so there. I doubt anyone will, but you know they are all thinking it.

I wonder if the Twins push him like they have with recent high draft picks. The old guard would keep him in extended spring training and then GCL with a move up to elizabethan, but Falvine, has been much more aggressive early in careers with high picks moving them up faster. I bet, unless he just looks super over matched, he starts in ceder rapids.

Depending on how the deal was set, if the physicals are failed or medicals show known issues by Twins but not known to Red Sox, the Sox could back out of deal. However, they will have to ask question if they want to, and MLB will have to see if they can. A lot will depend on what Red Sox learned they did not know before the offer, and if Twins knew it. Three ways it could be resolved, deal as proposed and no one budges. Deal blows up and no one moves anywhere. Either Dodgers or Twins throw more in for deal to Sox. In reality, the trade is two separate deals being contingent on the other being completed. If Sox can back out, they will have to ask themselves if they want to. Rumors of this type of deal had been going on for weeks, so clearly they want to move Betts and Price. If they back out, is the San Diego deal any better? Will try to call the bluff of Dodgers if Dodgers do not want to throw in more? Will Twins want to throw in more to get Matea? So many questions.

The write of up prospects that peaks my interest the most is Celestino. He is young, fast, can field, and seems to be able to hit. He started off slow, and one question I have is, was this his first full season ball in the states? That may explain the slow start to have to play in early spring in the north. It may have been colder there than he ever dealt with. Also, the adjustment to full season ball. Like the bounce back later season performance.

I liked the article. It goes deep into analytics, that my guess the front office saw too. I like the trade overall, and only time will tell if it was a mistake. The Twins know more about Graterol than anyone. His velocity is eye popping, but so is his lack of health. I doubt he will ever have long term success as a starter due to fact he will not stay healthy. He may have good stint as reliever, but you need to give something to get something. To the people that think we could have flipped just Graterol for a teams ace should never be a GM for a team. There is plenty to question about Graterol and he is not considered a top 10 pitching prospect in baseball, only #53 in all of baseball, according to MLB site, have not checked others. So why would a team give up an "ace" for not even a top 10 pitching prospect. I think Twins fans have been so starved for pitching prospects that we are over valuing him. Maybe Graterol stays healthy and becomes the best pitcher in the game for a period, or maybe he continues to have arm/shoulder issues, and can never stay healthy, most likely he is some where in between. Maybe Maeda flops with Twins and they lost out on Graterol for nothing, it happens, but at least this FO is trying to use their prospects to improve the team now.

I am a fan of the signing and hope it works out. I also hope that if it does not it does not stop future attempts. I know many fans that are happy now will flip if Donaldson gets hurt, or fails to perform. But, who else were they going to spend the money on? Not saying spend just to spend, but this should improve the team, and if he loses a step at 3rd by end of deal, as long as his bat is still there he can move to first or DH. I hope this does silence the critics that FO just putting on show for the Pohlads but never were serious. It is not always the money that players decided to go to particular teams, in this case it sounds like it was though.

In my opinion the age issue is that baseball never figured out who was a player that knew how to play versus a player that was just that athletic in their young years and prime. What do I mean by this? Every player eventually reaches a point where they cannot get by on their individual athletic talent, but they can still learn to win. Pitchers are normally the biggest ones that run into this issue. Once they lose velocity they do not know how to actually pitch, ie mixing location, speeds, movement. Some learn how to do this an become a great junk ball pitcher late in their 30's and early 40's. Speed helps, but really keeping hitters off balance is key to pitching well. So if the pitchers they are bringing in at late age can do this, then go for it. Hitters, I believe, is more about work off the field that keeps them being able to play. If they can stay in shape they can keep playing late into career. The biggest problem is some do not put in the work needed, or their body just cannot keep up if they are putting the work in. They did not forget how to hit, but they may lose some bat speed. I think to know if a player can play late into their 30's is what kind of work ethic do they have, and how did they get by early in career. It was mentioned long ago on this site, but Buxton is a guy that really should not be extended, unless he can show that he can hit without using his speed as main attribute. This is because he will lose that speed when he ages, everyone does, and since he gets by on that mostly I would expect big drop off. It is not about signing and going for young players, but it is seeing through the number and figure out who will make the adjustments as they get older.

I think this is good article. The real question was how important is infield defense not just for Twins, but generally? Players are trying to not hit the ball on the ground anymore, at all. Gone are the days of slap hitting and bunting players that will steal bases. If the pitchers also do not pitch for ground balls that combo will lead to very few hit. However, if those few that are hit are never turned into outs then this is a bad thing. It does come down to who scores more, so sure, if we could get a great fielder, but cannot ever get on base, are they better than someone who may allow a few more hits or runners on via error, but if he can increase total runs more than he allow he is plus player. I am actually worried about Sano at first. Hopefully, he spends the offseason and spring training taking a ton of bad throws. In my opinion, the most underrated position where a good defender is needed is first base. Many people think it is just stand and catch the ball, which if there a good through that is mostly it. However, a good fielding first baseman can save so many errors, and make those great diving plays by other infielders into good plays. How often do you see a great dive and a off target throw, but a good first baseman saves it.

I know it is the off season, but a little early to be talking trade deadline deals, in my opinion. So much will go into that decision, not only how the Twins are performing, but health, how the targets are performing, how their teams are doing, any prospects that emerge, ect. To me, unless they would be expected game one, two, or three, pitcher, no need to bring in anyone. If you make a rent a player trade at deadline it will be for trying to win in playoffs and if they will not be a top 3 pitcher, what is point? You either go big, or stand pat.

Cruz by far is the best just because of how he impacted the team as a whole. Santana was a nice one as well, but the team did not really have that much success during his time. Big Mike might become a good one down the road. You pointed the biggest problem with FA is the high pay for not that great of results down the road. Many times you are only getting a couple of years worth the value you are paying them. Not that Twins will ever flirt with tax level payroll, but top teams are starting to cut payroll because of it, and regretting some of the signings they have made recently. It is interesting to see how some of the top signers in recent years have not lived up to their own contracts and other players making much less have higher WARs. I have always said, FA should only supplement your team, not build it.

I would much rather have long term success over years and have chance in playoffs than to risk everything to have just a slightly better chance. Take this past season for example, in June, who would have said Nationals were going to win it all? Yes, they have spent plenty over the years, but they even let their top FA walk, and then was a terrible team mid way through season, only to figure it out, get in via wild-card, and win it all. There is never a guarantee any set of players will win a title. Sure, it was annoying how many times the Twins laid an egg in the playoffs during the Gardy years, but watching baseball in September and October is always more fun than stopping in July because they are 20 games out. The right way to do it, is much like the Rays and A's have done over recent years. They find how to win different ways, and flip guys maybe a year early to get better talent to use for a few years and then do it again. That will be the test of the new FO on what they do with some of these pending FA in next few years. Do they flip Buxton, Sano, Eddie, or others just reload moving forward? They should trade some eventually to reload. Keep the young guys coming, but not just young guys. The real problem with the Royals is they did not develop new talent very well to bring up and all their top players reached FA same year. They let them walk in hopes of one more winning year. They should have flipped some a year earlier get more players to reload. Ray trade Chris Archer away and what has turned out to a be steal of a trade so far. A's continue to be competitive, despite never signing major FA's. It can be done, but need the right system in place and need to be willing to trade a good player away some times. It is not rebuilding, it is reloading when you can fill in the spot they vacated.

Matz would be interesting to ask about. Unless Mets plan to move him to pen, he could be a buy low guy. It may depend on how many others are inquiring. Ray I do not think will cost all that much, again depending on who is calling. I again would be willing to take a waiver on him, he has been decent.

Clearly, if the Twins want to improve they will need to trade, but for whom and giving up who. We will never know what was offered to the players that signed elsewhere, the reports were they were competitive, but another year of other FA signing elsewhere. I have never been a build your team via FA, because it really is not the way to build a team, but they are supposed to supplement your team. If a trade is not done, then here is to hoping the young rookies can step up and preform well. I hope they go out and sign Donaldson and trade for a starter.

If the price is right I would not mind Didi or Donaldson at 3B. I really think upgrading defense will help the most. We hit a ton last year, but when Buxton was out our defense was not strong at all. Even worse second half I recall, have not look at numbers to back that up though.

For Mad Bum there are two big questions the front office will need to answer. First, is he the type of pitcher that will adjust late in career to drop in velocity? As all pitchers lose velocity as they age, and some make adjustments and pitch very late into 30's even early 40's, others barely make mid 30's. If you think he can adjust and "reinvent" himself as he ages, picking up new off speed knowing how to hit all zones and not just try to over power then he will be fine. If he is one that relies on velocity and will not adjust then stay away. The second question, is what kind of veteran club house guy is he? Many had credited Cruz with more than just being a good hitter, but a good club house guy that helped Sano and other hitters and is overall good guy to have on team. Part of spending on plus 30 players is can they help young guys and will they be good for club house. In my opinion, baseball is the by far the most important sport to look at team chemistry. You spend every day, except for all-star break and a couple of scattered off days, with mostly the same 25 teammates, plus coaches and club house guys, for nearly 9 months. It is hard to be with people that much you do not get along with. If the Twins front office believe the answer to both questions is yes, give him 4 or 5 years at 20 to 25 mil. I trust Falvene and their "nerds" to know a ton about all these pitchers and will make a good choice. Unlike old guard, this group looks at everything and does not care what fan's opinions are, because wins is what matters and if you are winning tickets will be sold.

What confuses me, is you are trying to sell us on having "bullpen games" but then want money spent on having five man rotation. This seems to be counter to your own argument to have five man rotation. To me, if you want bullpen games you do this because you do not have five starting pitchers, and the five you listed could all be decent pitchers that would give hopefully 6 innings a start, Odo, only one that would more likely be 5. Improving bullpen is always good idea, but this just improves bullpen and starters, not embarrassing the bullpening as the article talks about.

Overall I like the idea. However, of the SS listed for trade I am not sure any of them would be available for what Twins would be willing to give up. SS is most expensive position, and to get a hitter and top fielder at that spot you have to pay big for it. No way would Cleveland give up Lindor, to division rival, for less than Lewis, Kiroloff, and a top pitching prospect, whoever they want, that is minimum, in my mind. Then we will have to pay him big in couple years. Story, could be got for less, but I am always skeptical of any Coors field numbers without lookings at his home road splits. Just looking them up, they are not good, his average is .301 home, .250 road, his OBP is .368 home .313 road, and OPS is .998 to .756 road. He clearly gets a boost from Coors field. Ahmed is just not good offensively, so as long as you are okay with major drop off in offense, for the defense, and maybe we are, but he is aging as well, and may have drop off in range going into year 30 season. FA José Iglesias is also going into age 30 season and has poor offense. Not saying the Twins should not look into things, but the only guy on the list that I would be super sold on would cost so much in prospects that the Twins would need to be going all in and be ready for some bare cupboards down the road.

I have a love hate relationship with Eddie. He can come up big in big situations but his fielding is dropping, and he plays a very replaceable position. That being said, I doubt he has much value this day in age for trade. All the numbers being sited here every front office has, or should have. I would not be upset with a trade or keeping him, but if the FO thinks our OF prospects can match production and the money saved would bring in better pitching then trade or non-tender him. I do not think many teams would give up much for him. I know if I was on a different team looking to trade for him I would not be chomping at the bit to get him.

If I had to pick between the two, as the question that is posed asked, I would go Bumgarner. I get Wheeler may have the "upside" but pitchers like Bumgarner do not come around often. He made it as a young man and excelled. He hit some bumps in the road and came back swinging. He is a gamer that will give you everything he has when needed. I believe that as he loses velocity as he ages, he will know how to get the most out of what he has. Wheeler on the other had I am not sold he will know how to pitch when his velocity fails him. I could be wrong, but for aging pithcers, knowing how to work with what you have is important and believe Bumgarner is more likely to do that over Wheeler.