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PDX Twin

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Everything posted by PDX Twin

  1. PDX Twin
    I assume you mean "a shot" and I agree. Perhaps more than one, one with the Twins and one or more in the arm.
  2. PDX Twin
    He could wear #47 and put AK in the name slot.
  3. PDX Twin
    Apologies for derailing the thread! Leaving the "l" out of public is a surprisingly common typo, which spell checkers always miss. My colleagues and I have had countless chuckles over the years when reading essays and theses referring to "pubic goods" or "pubic policy."
  4. PDX Twin
    Pubic masks are very important to prevent exposure...
  5. PDX Twin
    Very interesting article that does more than just rehash statistics!
  6. PDX Twin
    Could they possibly find league names that are more boring and generic than this? Wow. Not only are they gutting the economics of the teams, but now they're working on the personality. What's next? Naming the Saints as MN AAA?
  7. PDX Twin
    "Who doesn’t love dingers?" I don't! Compared with triples, double plays, great catches in the outfield, beaten out bunts, and lots of other plays, I find home runs about as exciting to watch as walks and strikeouts. Of course, they are exciting when they change the outcome of a game dramatically, but most of the time they are just adding to a lead or cutting into a deficit, often by only one run, and end up not really having an impact. So, for excitement as a spectator, give me the deader balls all day!
  8. PDX Twin
    Of course, I don't bet on sports, but as an economist I have to chip in that it is always rational for a risk-averse person to bet against his or her favorite team. It reduces the variation in your mood because you either win the game or you win the bet.
  9. PDX Twin
    But surely he will Excel in the bullpen...
  10. PDX Twin
    Doesn't the article say that the metric starts in 2002?
  11. PDX Twin
    Good riddance to Pedroia (whom I always called "The Twerp") and his endless stream of Twins-killing hits!
  12. PDX Twin
    I don't like the idea that the Twins must always have someone with a major-league track record for every slot. That's expensive and gives us a team of 30-somethings. The current squad is mostly home-built, and the next generation needs a chance to play soon.
  13. PDX Twin
    This is a good point. Keeping a final-year star rather than trading for prospects is just like trading prospects for such a person without the likelihood of a re-signing. You end up with one year of the star but fewer prospects. The prospects we got didn't turn out very well. And sometimes the prospects we don't give up in a trade for a Lindor, say, don't work out either. But at least we have much better information about our own prospects than about those we get in trades.
  14. PDX Twin
    I agree that this is hard. This is like comparing whether you want a good engine or a good transmission---you need both to succeed. I guess that the common denominator here is dollars. Each can be bought, which allows us to observe relative prices that signal scarcity. That figures into your discussion of Rooker and the relief pitchers above.
  15. PDX Twin
    This seems like a simple extrapolation of recent records. Rather like the predictions of "big data" methods: decent as long as the future is just like the past. But it never is. When Covid hit, many economic forecasters didn't know what to do because they had no past data from which to extrapolate. They actually had to think, a task at which some of them are inexperienced and, at times, incompetent.
  16. PDX Twin
    Why is this? I think there are (at least) two reasons to doubt outcome statistics for relievers. First, one season is a small sample size for a typical relief pitcher -- 50-70 innings. One bad/unlucky outing (4 earned runs, say) can take a month of shutout pitching to dilute down to a decent ERA. Second, more of their outcome statistics are out of their control than any other player. They often leave runners on base who may or may not score and they may end up facing clutch pinch hitters selected specifically to face them. I'm a skeptic about the tendency of some to denigrate outcome-based statistics, but this seems like one area where structural performance numbers such as velocity, spin rate, and detailed location data can be most helpful and ERA is less useful, at least season by season.
  17. PDX Twin
    This makes sense if we want to find at-bats for the three young outfield prospects over the next couple of seasons.
  18. PDX Twin
    Aren't prototypes by definition experimental?
  19. PDX Twin
    So 37 on the roster means 3 slots for FAs? Or are there injured players that need to be added?
  20. PDX Twin
    Offer him an outsized 5-year contract, but with incentive clauses that keep the cost down if he only plays 90 games. If the number is big enough, he will take it. And the incentive clauses are only fair given his track record.
  21. PDX Twin
    These things tend to be self-correcting, and this will too. Good hitters will start taking advantage of the open space more often. Bad hitters--even super-strong ones who hit 30 HRs---will get weeded out as their OBPs drop into the .200s. The game will be better for it: fewer HRs and fewer strikeouts: More like baseball and less like homerun derby. Arise, Arraezs of the world!
  22. PDX Twin
    I vote for Trevor Rogers to join Taylor Rogers and, for good measure, acquiring Taylor's brother Tyler Rogers. This would give us the most confusing bullpen in baseball history! Would they put first names on their jerseys?
  23. PDX Twin
    Is Nick Gordon not in the conversation at all? I know that he has had recurring health issues and that he has often disappointed on the field, but I find it shocking that we have a whole article with 8 lengthy comments about replacing Polanco and that Gordon (a first-round choice with AAA experience) doesn't get even a mention.
  24. PDX Twin
    I haven't lived in Minnesota for 50 years, so my recollections are very old, but fond memories of devouring the sports section of the Trib (no S because the Star was in the evening back then) with breakfast. I had a trivial and distant personal connection with Sid because a classmate of mine was his nephew. Never got to meet him, but in our little town any connection to fame was exciting!
  25. PDX Twin
    I worry about trading Kepler/Rosario/Polanco for the latest incarnation of Matt Capps.
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