PDX Twin

Rosario has a lot of talent ... but he can be an Eddiot!

It's probably irrational, but I'm very optimistic about Rosario. If he can continue to improve his plate discipline, his pure talent will allow him to crush the better pitches he will see. I can imagine him as an MVP candidate with 30 HR and .325 average with a few steals and outfield assists catching the eye as well.

It seems to me like we can't lose here. If Gibson is good, we win lots of games. If Gibson is bad, we get to see some of the youngsters a bit sooner. I'll look forward to either outcome. (Of course, he'll probably be just good enough to keep his spot but not good enough to win a lot of games...)

With all the blue-chip FAs next season, it's hard for me to see Dozier getting the super payday he seeks. I see him as more of a mauve chip, or perhaps a pale azure chip in comparison. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he goes on the market, finds that the big-market teams are all spent-out chasing the Harpers and Machados, and decides that a reasonable offer to stay put with a young, competitive team is pretty attractive.

Enough talking (well ... writing)! It's time! Play Ball!

"Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jose Berrios should solidify the roster for the next decade." More like the next 3-5 years? If these players turn out to be worth signing when they reach free agency, the Twins will (as always) struggle to sign them.

The "business of baseball" also involves putting fans in the seats and getting them to tune in so that you get more for your TV package. I think Minnesota fans (in particular) value loyalty and continuity. Not that 5000 people buy tickets to every game just to see Joe, but they buy tickets to see a product/team that earns their support. (Frankly, this is one of the reasons I'm highly disgruntled about the Sanó situation. How the Twins and the player handle it will affect how excited I am to watch them and him this summer.) As long as Joe performs well, he is much more valuable to the Twins than a replacement with the same statistics. I hope that they work out a deal that makes sense for both so that Twins fans can enjoy the celebration of his final season. I also hope that the rising generation of Twins stars can help Joe get to the World Series.

Even without the concussions, would Joe still be catching regularly at his age?

What would Gardy call him?

I'd probably put Killebrew at 3rd, where he played for quite a few seasons, Oliva at DH because injuries forced him out of the outfield early, and Allison in RF. Admittedly, being an old codger, I have fond (and perhaps inflated) memories of the players I revered in my youth. No place for Morneau on the bench?

"As for the baseball in his first offseason, it has been a little challenging. He notes, “It’s challenging because you don’t know what the Twins are looking for." Doesn't it seem like the Twins should be letting prospects know what they're looking for?

I can't wait until this doesn't matter because pitches are called correctly, every time, by real-time technology. Maybe this happens about the time that Castro retires?

Sano for Archer, straight up?

I agree on the podcasts. I never, ever listen because most of it is tedious and I, the listener, don't get to control the pace. In an article, I can skim through or skip paragraphs that I find uninteresting and linger over and savor the parts that are great. Listening to most podcasts is like watching TV with commercials. If TD goes mostly to podcasts, I'll go mostly somewhere else (with great regret!).

I'd be one who would be interested in an occasional contribution. But I don't consider myself to be any kind of baseball expert and my knowledge of the players around the league and in the Twins' system is not at the level of the main contributors, so I'm not sure what role I could fill. I have on a couple of occasions started a thread in the forum section, but they have typically disappeared from the main page quickly as there were other forum entries getting comments and it appears that only the 5 or so more recently commented articles and forum posts stay there. That has discouraged me from using that forum (pun intended?) to share my thoughts. Maybe excluding articles that are already on the main page from the forum section would allow independent contributions that are presented there to flourish better?

And Darvish has been paying zero income tax in Texas. Seattle, Texas, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Miami could offer this advantage.

Is that because we think Ohtani is our savior?

I wonder if his very conspicuous and very costly error in Yankee Stadium had an outsized influence. Is the voting group NY-heavy? Would more voters have been watching that game? (I admit to not knowing exactly who votes on these finalists.)

And, of course, the Twins can keep the extra early-year money in the bank to be able to afford the later years. With an on-going, long-term organization, there is no reason why paying salaries that are 50-52% of revenues has to happen *every* year ... just on average. We are below this year (and probably have been for the last few) and should expect to be above that percentage as our currently-cheap prospects become expensive.

I agree that Portland will never adequately support an MLB franchise. They can get 20K out to see basketball and soccer games 20-40 times a year, but no chance of getting 30-40K to see baseball 80 times a year. And it seems like Oakland and Tampa Bay are already foundering in a death spiral, with Miami not too far above them. So if there were a market ready for a franchise there are several available without expansion. Without meaningful revenue sharing, I can't see the economics of expansion working out. They would just be adding two more teams at the poverty line as feeders and victims for the big-money teams. This might be very attractive to the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs though. Two more teams to divide up the available young stars more thinly so that there is less competition for them and more young players being groomed as their next free agent stars. Maybe that's why it's being considered ...

When is the Twins' window? Teams other than the rich boys have to plan for a cycle if they want to win championships. Down-cycles bring high draft picks, which are then the core of the up-cycle contenders. Of the four teams still alive for the championship this year, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees are rich and can buy all the toys all the time. The Astros (and the Nationals had they made it) are up-cycle teams who used a few terrible years with high draft choices to build the core of an excellent team that matured all at once. Their window is now. When is the Twins' window? As has been discussed here at length, the Twins will struggle to hold onto all of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, etc. I see the Twins' window as opening in 2019 and lasting until about 2021, extended possibly by one year on either side. So I evaluate any transactions based on how they affect the likely quality of the team over the five-year period 2018-22. This period would correspond to Dozier's potential remaining career if re-signed. Given a bumpy first year (as nearly all of our rookies have), Gordon starts contributing maybe in 2020 and Lewis maybe at the end of the window. How do we get to the point that Gordon, then Lewis, are actually good? It seems like we have an incumbent who fits perfectly: excellent in 2018 and 2019, and probably a solid contributor (if not the team's MVP) in 2020 and couple of years beyond. Plus, he is the team's clubhouse leader (something that I think is very important but that we, as outsiders, don't know much about) and a very popular player. The same glut of great secondbasemen that drove down the trade prospects is also going to moderate his salary options as a free agent. I think they can sign him to a reasonable 4-5-year contract (counting 2018) and that they should. One more thing. We have been told for years that the money is there if the opportunity arises. Well, this is the opportunity. As we swing up the cycle, so does the marginal benefit of additional salary commitment. The Twins should be looking to increase the salary budget to take advantage of their window. For me, the key is to avoid (when they can) the long-term commitments like those that the Tigers gave to Cabrera (30m+) and Zimmerman (25m), which will eat up budget over the next 5 years of mediocrity. Good luck to the Twins in finding the sweet spot that brings in enough star power to contend for titles through the window without threatening bankruptcy if we fall short!

And ... he had 5 RBIs and 3 runs scored in 10 AB! That works out to 300 RBIs and 180 RS over 600 AB.

Kepler seems like he's quite similar to Dozier (at the time they signed him to a medium-term deal) in terms of development and promise. That one worked out quite well, though Dozier was far from an established player at the time he signed. I'd put a reasonable but generous offer on the table for Kepler sometime in the next 18 months and see if they can keep him in Minnesota for another half-decade.

Judge is a big target. How come our pitchers keep missing him?

Game over.