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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    He might put up $10 million worth of value but he also hamstrings your roster if you have to plan for a highly capable backup, or if he's unavailable in the playoffs or stretch runs. I don't think it's as easy as WAR to dollars makes it seem.
  2. Taildragger8791
    In another summary of this article it was mentioned that the Twins are proposing an incentive-heavy deal for staying healthy and on the field, which significantly increased the numbers. Would be great if that worked out but I suspect Buxton knows he could get more guarantees from some gambling front office by going to FA.
  3. Taildragger8791
    This has disaster written all over it. The elevated walk rate makes me think he lives on the edge of the zone or just outside with mediocre stuff, which gets strikeouts in the minors but will lead to a ton of trouble against major league hitters.
  4. Taildragger8791
    Larnach's last month he's hitting .230/.292/.402 with a 38% K-rate. He's been particularly bad against LH pitching all year. Kirilloff has been getting better as the season goes on (and as the wrist injury gets further in the rear view mirror). He's better against lefties than righties so far and seems to be the more consistent hitter. I'm partial to guys who naturally get the bat to the ball like he does.
  5. Taildragger8791
    So is he likely a bullpen candidate without an effective change up or some other true third pitch?
  6. Taildragger8791
    I think some people got on Javier's bandwagon a little too quickly. He went on a nice power-hitting tear over 2 1/2 weeks but fell back to earth hard. Season strikeout rate is ~33%. Cutting his season up into three parts: First 21 games: .179/.238/.282 with 37% K-rate Hot streak (next 15 games): .317/.362/.698 with 22% K-rate June 18th (last 13 games): .135/.220/.191 with 44% K-rate Overall numbers aren't that far off from 2019, just with a little more pop for that middle stretch.
  7. Taildragger8791
    While he's improved to 3 walks per 9 this year, that's still kind of high for a reliever. And that's against AA hitting. He'll need to improve that command or he'll just be a (maybe slightly better) Hansel Robles type. If his fastball/slider are really major league pitches, shouldn't he be evaluated as a starter with that elite changeup as a 3rd pitch?
  8. Taildragger8791
    I'm with you, but who do you put these guys behind on the rankings then? There aren't better hitting prospects in the system, which to me is concerning because there is high risk attached to poor-contact hitters. I don't expect future major league starting-caliber hitters to struggle heavily with contact in the low minors, especially college bats. It's like these guys are lacking in the raw 'hit' tool and hoping to develop it just enough to leverage their other tools, but that is really tough. Maybe I'm way off base though.
  9. Taildragger8791
    It seems to me the litmus test for these guys is whether or not the minor league pipeline can start churning out arms. Everything up to now has been band-aids to make do with veterans and reclamation projects. 2020/2021 set back that pipeline so we don’t have much to go on yet. There appear to be a number of talented arms on the cusp and in the next year we’ll start to see hard data on their results. I’m skeptical, but I’m giving them that time before taking a strong stance.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Twins really gotta get Berrios to honestly assess whether the can extend him or not. If it’s looking unlikely then the time will never be better to get a haul to help rebuild this team with a new young wave. He’s having a career best season (which is still only a mid-3 ERA) and he’s still young enough and healthy. I’d rather keep him but it would be unbelievably bone-headed to lose him for nothing. This team isn’t competing for a couple more years anyways. Several prospects they need to break in and sort through before they can open another window.
  11. Taildragger8791
    Lots of guys have #1/#2 potential if you focus on their strengths and assume they'll significantly improve their weaknesses. There are a LOT of guys in the minors that can throw hard and have a nasty pitch or two, but they can't put it together into an effective package at the major league level.
  12. Taildragger8791
    Any word on Duran's elbow? That 'elbow strain' suggests inevitable Tommy John when there hasn't been any optimistic details given. What bum luck. Does this franchise do something to pitching prospects or is it just standard procedure now to blow out an elbow before you make the majors?
  13. Taildragger8791
    That's what I'm talking about. Those guys you mentioned plus Lewis & Miranda are about the only promising bats I see in the system, and none of them are a sure bet to play premium defense (TBD on Lewis or Miranda). There's nothing of note below those guys all the way to A ball. On the pitching side there are a few names to be excited about but pitching is such a crapshoot to pan out. I hesitate to count those chickens before they hatch. And again, after those top names there isn't a lot in the system. They need a couple good rounds of drafts and IFA to restock the system or it'll be another prospect deserve like we had a decade ago.
  14. Taildragger8791
    If the Twins are long-term losers after trading Buxton & Berriors, they almost certainly aren't going to be competitive with them anyways. The current prospect crop is pretty shallow and the pipeline is drying up below AA ball. They need almost all of their top prospects to pan out and form a new core because there's isn't another wave coming for at least 4-5 years.
  15. Taildragger8791
    This series is serving as a reality check to anyone who was still harboring thoughts that this team isn't a total dumpster fire in need of a rebuild.
  16. Taildragger8791
    I admit Jose Miranda was not on my radar before this year. His past numbers weren't jumping out but he seems to limit K's and showed a little pop. Is the breakout this year making sense or looking legit? What are the expectations for him? He looks like the only promising bat in the system after Kiriloff, Larnach, and Lewis (who I have Buxton-like concerns about with figuring out his swing...) so it would be huge if he panned out and could hold down the hot corner.
  17. Taildragger8791
    I’m not sure which way I’d predict things would go if someone in March told me that at almost 1/3 of the way into the season, Astudillo is at 3 innings pitched with one of the best ERAs on the team.
  18. Taildragger8791
    The fact that even in this crap lineup Sano couldn't crack the 3-4-5 spots over two rookies and Astudillo (hitting cleanup!!?) says a lot about how this season is going. Woof.
  19. Taildragger8791
    Out of curiosity I looked back at an old prospect list, choosing 2014 since I remember a crop of promising players coming up around that time. Out of our top prospects there were several promising pitchers: Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Berrios, Lewis Thorpe (holy cow he's been around a while), Trevor May, Felix Jorge, Stephen Gonsalves, Michael Tonkin, Fernando Romero, and J.T. Chargois. In 2015 guys like Tyler Duffey, Tyler Jay, Taylor Rogers, Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Huascar Ynoa start showing up on the lists. A lot of these guys looked like sure things to at least make a bullpen or back of a rotation. That AAA to MLB jump is tough.
  20. Taildragger8791
    Not to be overly pessimistic but there are so many times we've said this about a group of prospects, assuming 2-3 out of 5 or 6 have to turn out. Often times only 1-2 of them even sticks in the majors.
  21. Taildragger8791
    Hopefully Duran is just working on some stuff. He's got a bit of a track record with walking guys but it's not quite Alex Meyer levels of concern. Still, I worry about flamethrowers who struggle with command because that seems to be one of the hardest things to improve while maintaining the same effectiveness.
  22. Taildragger8791
    Also can someone get Nick Gordon a steak and a protein shake? The dude looks like he'd spin backwards if he connected on a 100 MPH heater. My nephews weighed more in middle school.
  23. Taildragger8791
    4 rookies plus Garlick in the lineup. Plus another rookie coming in to PH. They're nearly fielding a AAA lineup out there. And I'm not sure they're doing any worse than if the regulars (Buxton excepted) were out there...
  24. Taildragger8791
    A contender would be foolish to pick up Sano for the playoffs. In his 5 postseason games he is 2 for 19 with 9 Ks and a walk. 1 home run. And those numbers aren't just a SSS fluke. He is overmatched against playoff-caliber pitching.
  25. Taildragger8791
    Sano's WAR is back to zero. WPA is negative. It's all sky balls and strikeouts. Can't square up a ball to save his life. The whole batting approach of "swing as hard as possible in case you hit it" is miserable viewing. Blah. /rant
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