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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    Not mentioned in most of the "dump Vazquez" discussions of the winter is realizing it's one thing to say that they have Camargo as an option to replace him, but who would they have to replace Camargo? As in, it's incredibly rare to have gotten through 162 starts on just Vazquez and Jeffers a year ago. The likelihood of getting through 162 this year with just Jeffers and Camargo would be just as slim. So what would you do when, not if, one of those two goes down? At other positions, it's mostly about having a viable backup option, with roster flexibility designed to cover the third and fourth options. At catcher you really need to have a legitimate third option available because of the specialization required and increased likelihood of injury. EDIT: Mostly ninja'ed by the "risk avoidance" part of jmlease1's post above, but I'll leave this here for emphasis and agreement.
  2. IndianaTwin
    That's plane to see.
  3. IndianaTwin
    People overestimate the playing time players get throughout the season. There also has to be viable alternatives, which they haven't always had. Gallo spent most of the last month of the season on the IL, when there was wondering about how "hurt" he actually was. In the last quarter of the season, he started a whopping eight games. When he played in the last quarter, it was primarily for defense, which hadn't slumped. Javier Vazquez retired in 2011. If you mean Christian Vazquez, the alternative was to bring up a guy with zero MLB experience, in the middle of a pennant race, at the position most likely to have your starter go down due to injury. They kept playing Christian to keep Jeffers fresh in the regular season, and in the playoffs they showed they weren't committed to playing him when there was a better option. And you're not going to sign off on bad hitting when a bad hitter is still playing the good defense he was signed for. Bundy and Archer "earned" playing time by being available in a season when other starters were hurt and rookies were not ready. Simmons played when the alternative was to shift a hobbled Polanco back to short. Gonzalez was solid in his full year and only sucked in a year that was too short to release someone, but he was let go (i.e., not re-signed) when they had a chance that offseason. Morrison didn't need to get released -- he got hurt and didn't play after mid-August.
  4. IndianaTwin
    Oh, man, did we just sign ANOTHER left-handed hitting guy? Looks like he's got no speed either.
  5. IndianaTwin
    From the OP: "...There’s no reason that the start of the 2024 Minnesota Twins season shouldn’t be met with unbridled excitement. Following how last year’s team finished and the emergence of Royce Lewis, there couldn’t be more for fans to get behind. Brooks Lee should be coming this year, and Edouard Julien looks like a legitimate regular. A case can be made that Pablo Lopez could win the Cy Young, and Correa being healthy, may earn MVP votes. Even with all of that being true, fans were split, and indifference reared its head...." And yet, the rest of the article pretty much does the opposite.
  6. IndianaTwin
    Thank goodness Ed Ames isn't on the roster.
  7. IndianaTwin
    Not to mention that his manager, Ron Washington, is known to be a great infield defense instructor, even though he knows playing first base is incredibly hard.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Yes.* *Mainly meaning that I don't think the two are mutually exclusive.
  9. IndianaTwin
    From the OP: It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation. ------------------------------------------------- Um, if a) Varland, Ober, Ryan and Paddack are healthy and productive and join Lopez in the rotation; b) Wallner, Julien and Lewis thrive; c) they are joined by Lee (and Kirilloff/Larnach/Martin; and d) implied is that Correa, Buxton, Garver/Vazquez are successful, it's not like they have a huge need for other big expenditures. I'm with @Cory Engelhardt. Let's hold off on the sky is falling articles. We have all of next offseason for those...
  10. IndianaTwin
    And Spotrac may be more accurate. I confess to going to baseball-reference.com for anything I can find there, including that it's easier to get to the salary info. Just find the player and scroll down. But I think that section is less complete than the other parts. It's not unusual to see gaps of a couple years. I see Spotrac has a figure for 2017, which BBR doesn't. I'm guessing that's the proration of whatever minimum salary was that year? (Bottom line is that we hope Duran pitches well enough to earn himself a big raise. 😃 Jax too.)
  11. IndianaTwin
    Agree that we "hope" Farmer's option doesn't get picked up (and that he gets traded instead?), because Lee, et al., proved him to be redundant. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like Hader did get a sizable jump in Arb 1. If this is accurate, $1 million may be significantly underselling Duran's raise. (Let me know if I've misread, and I'll cut this part.)
  12. IndianaTwin
    I concur on both statements, particularly the second. After a lot of folks spent last year saying, "Play the kids," maybe that's what they are expecting to do on the SP side. I'm not smart enough to guess whether they will be right, but it's encouraging if they are indeed that high on them. I think you also make a crucial distinction between signing a 1 vs. 2+ year deal. At most, I could see a 1 + option for someone like Thor. I was intrigued with the thought of Ryu, but it looks like he's headed back home.
  13. IndianaTwin
    I only quoted part that responded to my post. I agree with your take on both of these. Though I noted that mutual options are rarely taken, Alcala's is the kind that might. EDIT to add: It made me wonder why they would have put in a mutual option with Alcala, since he's still Arb eligible. If I'm reading this right, according to https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/jorge-alcala-32837/, it's actually a team option, which makes more sense. In his case, they have essentially locked in their Arb 3 agreement for 2025 if they want it, in exchange for giving Alcala what amounts to a $55k parting gift if they choose to non-tender him.
  14. IndianaTwin
    In terms of comments... Some will continue to name dumping Vazquez as a way of saving money. I'm not so sure. Either he plays well and the Twins want to retain him at $10M or he plays poorly and the Twins would have to cover a part of his salary to trade him. Farmer and Alcala are both on mutual options. These rarely get taken. Either the player plays poorly and the team declines it or the player plays well and wants to test the market. (EDIT to add: As noted in a comment I make below, it looks Alcala's is actually a team option.) From a roster management standpoint, it's hard not to see Larnach and some of the guys in the Arb 2/Arb 3 category as non-tender candidates. We can't guess which ones at this point, but probably one or two or more. If they all play well and are worth tendering, that's a great problem to have!
  15. IndianaTwin
    @Peter Labuza, this is a really, really great layout and reflects what a number of us seem to be thinking about their spending this offseason. If you are up to it, I'd love to see the addition of a "2024 total: ___ million" in each grouping. Beyond that, are Buxton, Vazquez (no change) and the various pre-arb players the only ones missing? Buxton and Vazquez are basically their own category, "Contracts with no change."
  16. IndianaTwin
    Plus you can control his workload much better as a starter than by trying to squeeze in a bullpen outing or two. I'd also consider slotting Paddack in at No. 2 in the rotation. Pitching the day after Lopez is the best likelihood of pitching with a rested bullpen.
  17. IndianaTwin
    Vazquez is signed through 2025. If they do find a trade partner, there's a decent chance they have to kick in some cash. So either it's just Kepler's $10M that's gone or it's maybe $16M-$17M gone from Kepler and Vazquez. Either way, Lopez himself uses up $13.5M of the savings, so they are already at close to a wash without dealing with the increases for young guys.
  18. IndianaTwin
    Even though they could get by without a 5th starter, the Twins haven't typically skipped that spot when they've had that opportunity in the past. Assuming health, they aren't going to/can't option Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and DeSclafini, so there's no reason to skip one. If someone is hurt, they might consider doing that with Varland, carrying an extra reliever for a time. They would need Varland by the LA April 8-10 series. Even so, I'm guessing they won't do that, since that would mean jumping guys immediately into pitching on four days rest heading into a stretch with just one off day between April 6 and May 1. I think they will look to the off days in the first nine days of the schedule to make sure that guys are well rested heading into that longer stretch, In a bit of an anomaly, with the two-game series in Milwaukee, Lopez would likely get both the Opening Day start and the home opener. Usually that's two different guys.
  19. IndianaTwin
    Yes, to the request for captions. And if that's Mays, it has to be from early in his career. Later, he used a Wilson.
  20. IndianaTwin
    If Lewis is on the list, should Canterino be as well? He’s on the 40-man, whereas Festa, Raya and Lewis are not.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Amen, @Nashvilletwin. All offseason, many have been honked off that the Twins stated last fall that the payroll was going down. As armchair accountants, many of us have claimed that it didn't need to, blah, blah, blah, without truly having an understanding of their finances and where they are going in years to come. It may or may not have needed to go down. I don't know about that, but I generally trust people who have more information over those who have less. But if they were going to choose to have it go down, it makes total sense to name that to the public in advance. It's a truism of public relations that you want to be transparent when presenting bad news. Look at it another way, folks. If they hadn't announced that spending would be down, the natural assumption on TD is likely that it's going to increase. If it was $159M last year, folks here would be assuming that this year would be $165M or more. Can you imagine how freaked people would be at this point if they were expecting $165M and we ended up where we are now?
  22. IndianaTwin
    All food needs to be sold in plastic helmets, because let's face it, all food tastes better when it's served that way. Seriously, these are great ideas. The kids free suggestions provides a challenge in that they need to be ticketed in some way, but the ridiculous bargains of old ($28 gets four tickets, four sodas, four dogs, etc.) would go a long way.
  23. IndianaTwin
    I'm not doubting that Tampa Bay had a great bullpen and used it effectively, but I'm not convinced by the stats that this was their intention. The reason they only had one starter over 120 innings is that Glasnow and McClanahan only made 21 starts each due to injury. Give them another 10 starts like Eflin had, and they are also in the 160-180 inning range The three of them averaged 5.6 innings in the games they did start, not a particularly unusual number. Additionally, a key reason they were low in the innings per start category as a team is that they used an Opener quite a bit. All you have to do is take out the 14 games started by Jalen Beeks and Shawn Armstrong, where they went a total of 26.2 innings and their 4.8 innings per start becomes more than 5.1. It looks like they had other guys who were used as Openers on occasion as well. As to the Twins, Lopez threw 194 innings and Ryan and Ober were each over 160 last year, if you count Ober's minor league starts. If they are healthy, there's no reason to think they won't match those. If you're saying that it's good to have a strong bullpen in case your Nos. 4 and 5 starters don't go as long as the top three guys, that doesn't seem particularly novel.
  24. IndianaTwin
    I'm not sure Boras's willingness to do an extension on a nearly 34-year-old player with 13 years of experience is a helpful comparative indicator.
  25. IndianaTwin
    Add me as a PNC raver. It's been a few years since I've been there, so I don't know current ticket prices (though given that it's the Pirates, they shouldn't have increased too much!), but it's the one place where I splurge for a higher-priced ticket somewhere behind home plate. The view from there is worth the extra Bucs (see what I did there?).
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