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IndianaTwin

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  1. IndianaTwin
    It would be interesting to know the backstory on the negotiations. I'm trying to put myself in each team's situation. For the Twins, what's the gain in negotiations. They got the benefit of Miami kicking in the money, but if wanted Santana, they could have just taken him. Did they go to Miami and say, "If you've got someone you want, you can pay us $50k so we don't take him. You can't just give us a check for $50k, so let's work out the mechanics by doing it as a draft and swap." Did Miami come to them ahead of time and say, "We've got a guy we really want. Can we work out a trade so you don't make a deal with some other team instead?" Is that what happened, or do we know more to the story and why it went down that way?
  2. IndianaTwin
    Based on Dobnak’s three data points, it seems his performance has been pretty flat.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Or did you mean Dobnak?
  4. IndianaTwin
    As @ashbury notes, they essentially did this by making a Qualifying Offer. Gray knew he had a multi year deal in front of him. I don’t know what the number is, but I’m guessing a one-year extension had to be at least $30M to get him to even consider taking that in favor of the multi year deal he was going to get.
  5. IndianaTwin
    Are you suggesting that they should have offered Gray 4 years at $25M? Or kept the 3 years that St. Louis gave him, but offer a higher AAV? Because it would have taken one or the other to outdo the St. Louis offer. And given the proximity of St. Louis to Gray's home, it might have even taken doing both.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I posted much of this on another post, but it applies here as well. I think the biggest obstacle to Mauer’s selection this year is the ballot itself. Because of the rule limiting voters to 10 picks, there is by definition a defined number of votes available. Some voters regularly use all 10 of their votes, but a significant number do not. Additionally, players tend to gain votes from year to year. When a writer votes for someone in a given year, they will tend to vote for them until they are selected or use up their eligibility. With these bits (and others) in mind, here’s why I think he will come up short, even though I think he should receive the honor. This year's returnees... These are guys who were on the ballot last year and are returning. It's a strong group of returnees, with Helton (6th year this year, 72.2% last year), Wagner (9th, 68.1%), Andruw Jones (7th, 58.1%), Sheffield (10th, 55.0) and Beltran (2nd, 46.5%). Of those... I think Helton gets in -- virtually everyone who is that close makes it the next year. Wagner will get close, if not in, for the same reason. Jones has been climbing particularly quickly. He only had a little over 7 percent his first two years. I think he will take another big jump. Last-year guys almost always have a jump, so that will boost Sheffield, though I doubt he gets all the way to 75%. I think Beltran will take a significant jump as he gets further away from the Astros scandal. Exiting from last year... Only Rolen (76.3%), Kent (46.5%) and five single-vote guys left the ballot, so there were not a lot of votes freed up. Virtually everyone who voted for Rolen (and more) will vote for Beltre, so his exit won’t help Mauer. This year's newcomers... Beltre is a given. If he gets even 90 percent, he will have used up the Rolen votes and a significant number of the Kent votes by himself. Besides Mauer, the rest of the newcomers are Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. That's a much stronger group than last year's first-year guys (Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and then guys like John Lackey, Huston Street and R.A. Dickey). For example, Lackey had the second-highest WAR of last year's newcomers, but nine of this year's first-year guys had a higher WAR than Lackey. Conclusion... I think Mauer belongs in, but because of all those factors, I don't think there are enough votes available to get him in this year.
  7. IndianaTwin
    That the Cards made a quick offer that he found acceptable. Which may also affirm that he was being honest when he said it wasn’t all about the money. And I’m cool with that. For all we know, he may have made the first offer. His agent has a sense of the market. I could easily see someone like Gray saying, “You are near my home, and I like a lot of things about your franchise. If you give me 3/$75M, I’ll sign now and save us both a lot of handwringing over the winter.”
  8. IndianaTwin
    This FO signed Castro.
  9. IndianaTwin
    So far, Mauer appears on track to be a unanimous selection: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!54244&authkey=!AGrU1OUsbz4WHyU Both ballots posted include him. (Then again, both are listed as "sample," so maybe the file is just being set up to test formulas. At any rate, that's the link if folks want to follow along.)
  10. IndianaTwin
    I agree. It should. My point is just that the math of the rest of the ballot can make a huge difference in how soon a guy makes it, and Mauer is hurt by the strength of this year’s ballot. Perhaps the classic example is Carlton Fisk. He’s still No. 4 among catchers in JAWS and one of those ahead of him is Pudge Rodriguez, so Pudge Fisk was No. 3 on that list when he retired. He’s a no-brainer first-ballot guy, right? Nope. He had the unfortunate situation of entering the ballot with Ryan, Brett and Yount. There weren’t enough votes available for Fisk, so he had to wait until the next year. Circumstances like this are the argument for not being limited to 10 votes per ballot. As others say, a HOFer is a HOFer, no matter what the rest of the ballot looks like. Fisk shouldn’t have had to wait, just for having retired the same year as a bunch of legends.
  11. IndianaTwin
    Last night on MLB Network, the talking heads compared the five-year peak of Mattingly with the five-year peak of Mauer and noted that Mattingly didn't get close at all. Then one said, "Mauer will get some points because he did this as a catcher." "Get some points" because he was a catcher? That he did this as a catcher is his point!
  12. IndianaTwin
    This year's returnees... It's a strong group of returnees, with Helton (6th year this year, 72.2% last year), Wagner (9th, 68.1%), Andruw Jones (7th, 58.1%), Sheffield (10th, 55.0) and Beltran (2nd, 46.5%). Of those... I think Helton gets in -- virtually everyone who is that close makes it the next year. Wagner will get close, if not in, for the same reason. Jones has been climbing particularly quickly. He only had a little over 7 percent his first two years. I think he will take another big jump. Last-year guys almost always have a jump, so that will boost Sheffield, though I doubt he gets all the way to 75%. I think Beltran will take a significant jump as he gets further away from the Astros scandal. Exiting from last year... Only Rolen (76.3%), Kent (46.5%) and five single-vote guys left the ballot, so there were not a lot of votes freed up. Virtually everyone who voted for Rolen (and more) will vote for Beltre. This year's newcomers... Beltre is a given. If he gets even 90 percent, he will have used up the Rolen votes and a significant number of the Kent votes by himself. Besides Mauer, the rest of the newcomers are Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. That's a much stronger group than last year's first-year guys (Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and then guys like John Lackey, Huston Street and R.A. Dickey). For example, Lackey had the second-highest WAR of last year's newcomers, but nine of this year's first-year guys had a higher WAR than Lackey. Conclusion... I think Mauer belongs in, but because of all those factors, I don't think there are enough votes available to get him in this year.
  13. IndianaTwin
    Fair enough. Maybe another way of saying it is that if we were ranking them, I'd have Lewis at 4 and Ryan at 5, but that's semantics. We're on the same page in thinking it would take a haul to include Ryan.
  14. IndianaTwin
    I’m not too interested in any of these guys in November. However, I add Nick Senzel to the list and would have some interest in him. I do talk to Hudson’s and Trevino’s agents, however, and let them know I may have interest if they are still on the board in February. In general, I like the two-year rehab deal for Woodruff, but I don’t see it happening in a budget-tightening year. I
  15. IndianaTwin
    Thanks. I’d flip Ryan and Lewis in your groupings, but other than that, you saved me a lot of keystrokes, particularly with your last paragraph.
  16. IndianaTwin
    If that works with Moran, I'd consider trying to do the same with DeLeon.
  17. IndianaTwin
    I saw it as chips, which I think is disgusting on a burger. Then again, I thought the same about putting mac and cheese on a burger until I had it at a roadhouse on Highway 81 in South Dakota. Boy was I wrong. Though I have strong opinions on many things, I don't on Gordon. He seems too far down the pecking order to be of much value, and I don't see him having much value to other teams, though he might turn into the next Akil Baddoo. Though not an issue now, I suspect Gordon's roster spot will be of more value later in the winter than he is.
  18. IndianaTwin
    (For ease of reading, I moved the guys who've debuted into their own line in the quote above.) One of the key points for me on this list is that we shouldn't get our shorts wound too tightly when one or more of these (maybe even one of our favorites) gets moved for pitching. For example, if Baseball Trade Values is anywhere close to correct, Lee would get us a stud pitcher with a couple of controllable years. For reference, it would be a pitcher in the range of Pablo Lopez's four controlled years. Or Tanner Bibee's five years or Gavin Williams' six for Cleveland.* It seems Lee is seen as untouchable by some on TD, but I'd gladly trade him for a starter like Lopez, Bibee or Williams. A second key point is that having prospects like this is part of developing the "Pitching Pipeline."** Our two best starters for next year are both trade pickups, and I'm good with that.*** *I know the likelihood of an intradivisional trade of this nature is very low -- I was just looking for some pitchers with a lot of control and similar perceived value, and they were the first ones I came across Likely you can find examples on teams that are better trade fits. **This needs the little "Trademark" mark thingie, but I can't figure out how to go Superscript. ***This comment is not intended to highjack the thread and take it in another direction as we argue whether or not the Twins have developed this "Pitching Pipeline."
  19. IndianaTwin
    Though Severino played 1b, 2b and 3b this year, is he actually good at any of them? Given that he had as many starts at DH as at 1b or 2b, I'm suspecting defense isn't strong. If that's the case, he's not matching Gallo's skill set. A major component of Gallo's being added to the team was his perceived strength at four defensive positions. They added Severino to the 40-man for a reason, but it wasn't to replace Gallo.
  20. IndianaTwin
    I like Atteberry as the studio guy and doing the postgame stuff. He’s always well-prepared for doing play-by-play, but it’s like he’s trying to squeeze in every nugget by the third inning. I do like that when Atteberry fills in for Gladden, it feels like Provus is able to relax a bit, knowing that he doesn’t have to carry Gladden.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Provus worked Hall of Famer PAT Hughes in Chicago, not former pitcher Jim.
  22. IndianaTwin
    And playing in places like Seattle and Minnesota.
  23. IndianaTwin
    I think you categorize Miranda as a 1B/DH. I don't see him playing much, if any, 3B, with all the options ahead of him defensively.
  24. IndianaTwin
    Only serious in the sense that it would improve my radio experience to have Gladden on TV. 😀
  25. IndianaTwin
    As a long-time radio regular, I'd welcome Gladden getting a "promotion" to the TV side. Alas, I think it's more likely to be Provus. I have too few opportunities to see Bremer on TV to make observations there, other than to say that 40 years of doing any job is worthy of congrats. I enjoyed his book, and I've enjoyed him as a Twins ambassador at places like TwinsFest. Blessings to him in the next steps, doing whatever a "Special Assistant" gets to do.
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