IndianaTwin

It just changed. Passan reports A.J. Minter to the Twins. Tier 1. I have liked him for a long time.

I was driving down Interstate 57, windows open on a beautiful night. Most of central Illinois heard me yell.

I don’t believe what I just saw. I don’t beLIEVE what I just saw.

At home plate, in fact. In what was definitely not a meeting that could have been handled with an email.

So I am at the Society for American Baseball Research national convention. Someone did a poster asking whether “Nepo Babies” get a longer leash than “Normies,” those players who are not the descendent of an MLB player. Conclusion: They do. In their first three seasons, Nepo Babies tend to get more plate appearances than players with similar stats. And right now, given Kody’s early performances, I’m cool with that!

Thanks. I was hoping someone would post this. Does your source also provide… a) how many times it ended 4-3? b) how often the inning started with two outs? EDIT to add: A Tweet passed along said it was the third time that a team has done it when there was two outs and the bases empty at some point in the inning. If I’m reading it correctly, the other two actually had larger leads at the time and still ended with an Ultimate Grand Slam, so this was the first time the first two batters of the inning made outs and then the festivities began.

I don’t know prospects well enough, but as a fellow QO preferer, I also wonder if people overestimate how much the Twins will get for him. Supposedly the Yankees are desperate, which in theory means they would overpay, but an added dynamic with catchers is that they don’t play every day. They have 47 games remaining, so they are only trading for maybe 32 games’ worth. Your list is really helpful. Would Quick, for example, be enough to get him if the shoe were on the other fit?

Approximately August 14. That's the date when there are only 45 service days left in the season. If they bring Jenkins up at all (I'm not convinced they will), it won't happen before that date. If they bring him up after that date, he retains his rookie status for next year. If he then wins Rookie of the Year in 2027, the Twins get an extra pick in 2028. If they bring him up before that, he would lose his status and the opportunity for the pick. This all can change with the new CBA, but it fits the current rules and is the new way to fiddle with service time. It makes sense to play the game as we know it. As example, last year Baltimore brought up Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers on that weekend. The Orioles were pretty open in the weeks leading up that they wouldn't bring those guys up before that date.

I think it's preordained that the Yankees settle for Christian Bethancourt. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/yankees-sign-christian-bethancourt-catcher.html

How many times can we turn our heads and pretend that we don't see how well the team is doing? How many times can we look up before we see first place? How many deaths can we have as Twins fans before we know that too many seasons have died?

Yeah, but with a short bench and the emphasis on positional flexibility…

Ya know, now that you mention it... (Does that give you a clue how many Teams meetings brain-fried me today? 🤣)

Exactly. If it was preordained, why not trade for him a month ago?

Right. What's in the past is in the past. Let's look at next year and whether it makes sense to offer a QO. Using the $23M figure. I think it does. By AAV, that's significantly more than Raleigh. BUT, Raleigh's contract includes buying out two years of arbitration. For his four "free agent" years as an age 31-34 catcher, he's getting $24.667M. What would he have gotten for one year? Probably $28M or more. Starting what will be five years ago, Realmuto was paid $23.875M for the four years of being 31-34. With inflation, that's probably an AAV of $26-$27M, pushing $30M if it was a one-year deal. As noted, Murphy is on a 4 year deal at a $15M AAV covering ages 30-33, plus an option year. Where is Jeffers in the pecking order? He's not what Raleigh was when he signed that deal. He's not what Realmuto was. But he's better than what Murphy was. Jeffers will be 30, a year younger than Raleigh and Realmuto and also coming off a phenomenal year for a catcher. His injury was not catching-related, so shouldn't be a big factor in being a free agent. I think the free agent contracts people have been projecting are well below what he would get on the market. I'm not sure 3/$60M gets it done -- not long enough. I'm not sure 4/$72M gets it done, perhaps still not long enough. As a 30 YO, it may even take a five-year deal, perhaps at $80M. So with the injury record of catchers, I don't think he takes a QO when he's looking at that sort of payout. People think he will because he would "only" have to get x dollars after that to come out money ahead. But Murphy and Raleigh are both great examples of what can happen for a catcher. Take Raleigh -- if he'd waited one more year to sign, there's no way he would have gotten the deal he did. Catchers need to strike when the going is good, and this is Jeffers' best chance for a big payday. I don't think he takes the QO, so offer it and take the draft pick when he turns it down. Ah, but what if he does pull a Brandon Woodruff and take the QO? Is it an overpay to have him on a one-year deal at $23M? Maybe, but not that much, again, considering that it's just a one-year deal. But what if they don't want to spend $30M on catchers, given they also have Caratini. First, Tom says he wants to increase payroll, so maybe that's not a problem. Second, if it is a problem, trade Caratini. I suspect you'd get as much for Caratini for $7M on a one-year deal as you get for seven weeks of Jeffers, particularly if Jeffers is off the market and there are few legit free agent options for teams to sign.

That's incredibly hard.

I don't think it's going to work to start Lopez and Greene each on one days' rest. 🤣

Potentially even "win-win-win" when one considers the possibility of missing a similar number of "now that we've tendered Lewis, we should trade him" articles from November to March.* *See also: "2025-26 Offseason: Larnach, Trevor."

But you do realize that if we trade Lewis now, we'll miss out on the opportunity for eleventy-seven "should the Twins non-tender Royce Lewis" articles on TD between now and November, right? 🤣

😀 I don't know if you meant this facetiously or if people are taking it this way, but this isn't far off from where I am. They've made so much progress attitudinally this year, so don't mess with the positive mojo by trading vets and don't trade pieces that are close enough to help 2027. Make modest moves that tinker with the team if they become available, but don't trade just to make trades. From past years, i think of something like getting Sergio Romo for Lewin Diaz as the level of trade I'm most interested in. I don't remember how highly regarded Diaz was, but I don't remember much weeping and gnashing of teeth when we lost him.

If the thought is to trade Larnach and replace him with a Wallner that is hitting well in St Paul, I'd rather just trade Wallner, even if for a bit less, and not mess up the major league roster mojo.

Bader for Hendry Mendez and Jeremy Villoria. Bader was a free agent, so only two months of value. Bader was way better defensively and was hitting above average, so he had generated 2.7 bWAR for the Twins, whereas Larnach has generated 1.6 this year. Larnach's having an extra year may outweigh that Bader was performing better, but I'm not sure that's a huge difference.

I'll modify to say "disagreeing and debating with people like you who approach it civilly is what brings me back." Thanks.

I’ll take a shot. You may or may not agree, but I think they are things to consider.. 1. As you note, it does depend a ton on what the return is. I guess I’m not as convinced as others on the amount they receive. Which is related to… 2. Is what they will get substantially more than what they would get with a comp pick? As others have noted above, the QO piece may change with a new CBA, but because the QO process is resolved before the Dec. 1 and some free agent contracts will have been signed by then, it’s hard for me to see a new CBA affecting this year’s offseason. 3. Trading him takes away the slight possibility of accepting a QO. I don’t think he will, but if he’s healthy, I’m strong considering offering it. People think it’s a no brainer that he would accept it. I don’t. I think the salient comparable contracts are that Raleigh’s contract buys out his final arb year and then gets him $24.66M for his 31-33 seasons and that Realmuto got $23.875M for his 31-34 seasons back in 2022-25. Will Smith’s AAV is only $14M, but it took guaranteeing 10 years to get it that low. Is Jeffers as good as Realmuto or Raleigh? Probably not, but consider inflation and that Jeffers is a year younger. I could see something like 3/$60M or 4/$72M as his targets. Even if $23M is high on a per-season basis, Raleigh is a good example of why a catcher is going to be really reluctant to pass on a potential long-term deal. AND if Jeffers does take it, cool. It probably is an overpay, but it’s only a one-year deal and puts them in a very good spot. They’d even now have Caratini or Jackson as a trade chip. 4. Trading him lessens the chance of him resigning. Folks rightly note that trading him doesn’t preclude the option of resigning him, but there are very few instances where that actually happens. Rather than saying, “We’re trading you, but we’d like to bring you back” sounds a lot different than, “We do really want to extend you. In fact, we want to so badly that we don’t want you to even taste another team’s clubhouse. 5. I think there’s also psychology involved. Particularly on the heels of last year, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to the remaining players. I don’t want to do that. Conversely, keeping him sends a message that the FO is committed, particularly if they pair it with modest adds, perhaps a rental starting pitcher for a modest prospect or a reliever for the same. I’m talking a Sergio Romo for Lewin Diaz-level trade. 6. Similarly, in the context of their fan PR, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to fans. Keeping him and even making some minor trades to add communicates to fans that they are trying. Giving him a QO and seeing him decline sends a positive message that they are trying. Giving him a QO and having him accept it sends a positive message. Yes, folks on TD will be angry that the didn’t get an extension done in those cases, but I’m not sure the general public (the ones on the season-ticket call list) views it quite the same way. 7. Catchers play a role in pitcher development. I like the thought of the young pitchers having two more months of throwing to the veteran catcher. I think keeping Jeffers has a better chance of contributing to pitcher development than trading him does. 8. Keeping him helps their chances for 2026. Does keeping him turn them into World Series contenders? No, but even a first-round loss contributes to ticket sales that will be significant on the heels of the PR debacles of the last several off seasons. Those are nuanced reasons for keeping him. None of them is reason by itself. The composite of them may or may not convince you, but I offer them as additional factors that move the conversation past “trade him or lose him for nothing” as the only consideration.

Here's the bottom part of his baseball-reference.com page. I don't know if anyone has done a study to see the level of validity to these measures, but it paints a pretty bleak picture of his changes and I find them fun to look at. Also, close to half of his bWAR (17.8 of 35.8) came in three seasons that were spaced out, so it's not like he had a dominant run. Those years were 2015, 2019 and 2023, by the way -- trade for him and sign a one-year extension! But hey, any time when you can even ask the question, that's a good player.

Thanks. Makes sense throughout. Because I'm optimistic enough about some of the pieces for 2027, Ryan seems like an essential enough piece in the whole that I don't like the thought of opening that hole. With Lopez coming back from injury and the youth of Bradley, I don't want to just add one (or even two) to the Prielipp/Abel/Rojas group in a trade of Ryan -- I'd like to know going in (as much as one ever can know) that I've 30-32 starts covered with Ryan. I tend to view TJ guys similarly and posted something similar to this on Lopez. Someone pointed out that he had "only" the internal brace procedure rather than the full TJS ligament reconstruction, which apparently does shorten the recovery time somewhat. I've not heard anything about recovery and whether he's on track, early or behind. Probably too early to tell. Ditto on extension. I made a comment elsewhere that in my mind, simply adding a year to his contract at a similar salary feels like a no-brainer for both sides. No long-term commitment for the Twins, a second year to prove he's definitely back for Lopez as heads to free agency as a 32 YO, hopefully with a shot at getting another four years or so from someone. I also like that it would take his leaving off the same calendar as Ryan's.