IndianaTwin

You get a "like" from me just for teaching junior high for 25 years. It didn't matter what you said after that. But I do agree with you on that part too.

Excellent point. He faced 143 batters as the third time through the order. It would be interesting to see the same 143 batters in their first at bats and their second at bats. That 143 plate appearances is about 20 percent of his batters, however, so it's not exactly a SSS.

I think the answer is "all of the above." A favorite folksinger quoted as Yogi as saying, "In theory, there's no difference between practice and theory. But in practice, there is." In other words, we can talk about theoreticals and whether stackers and openers fit, but it also comes down to who the players are. And as some have pointed out, the schedule can also make a difference. I also appreciated the wisdom of matching innings to individuals to maximize their usage. So for example, using the pitchers currently on the roster, here's how I would approach the season. Berrios and Gibson each made 32 starts and about 195 innings. Injuries could happen, or they could go a little longer in games. The season is 186 days long, so if they stayed on every 5 days, they actually would be able to start 37 games. That's not realistic, both because people don't do that and because the off days wouldn't allow them to start that many times. I would start with a goal of about 34 starts each, which means an average of every 5.5 days. I would work through the schedule with those two guys, finding the right mixture of four and five days off that space out their starts. I would also not pitch them on back-to-back days, since they are the two guys most likely to give a long start and rest the bullpen. Odorizzi has consistently averaged about 165 innings the last five years. He's just sucked on the third time through the order. I would also try to get 34 starts from him, BUT always pull him after 18 batters. The exception for that is that if there are no runners on base, he gets to continue until he gives up a baserunner or finishes the inning. If he has a 1.20 WHIP, that means he's going to average 5 innings per game. More on that later. I would work through the schedule to find the right mixture of every fifth and every sixth day to get him his 34 starts. With 34 starts from each of those, that only leaves 60 starts. I think the next best starter is Pineda (actually, I think he could be better than Odorizzi, but I'm downgrading him for coming back from injury). He's been very durable when healthy, however. I look for 30 starts from him. As I work through the schedule around the first three, there will likely be good stretches of time when Pineda simply slots into a steady spot in the rotation. On several occasions in the midst of keeping the others on pace, there would an opportunity to skip him. Basically, he'd have about four skips, and perhaps one or two of these would line up nicely for a 10-day "tired arm" trip to the DL. And then the plan is for Mejia to get as many of the remaining starts as possible. Like Pineda, this is probably a mixture of skipping him a couple times and mini-trips to the DL. One important note on Pineda and Mejia. For the first 18 games of the season, they can get by on four starters. That essentially means that Mejia's 30 starts will cover over the final 144 games of the season, so he very likely would stay in rotation with the first three guys the whole year. Particularly with that caveat, it's likely possible to use Pineda's skips very strategically. During those skips, he could alternatively pitch a game or two from the bullpen. Second important note on those. If Mejia outpitches Pineda in spring training, those guys flip spots. Ah, but what about Romero. Well, I don't think you can slot him into the rotation at the beginning of the year and have any hope of him lasting the year on a full workload. So from the beginning of the year, I stack him after Odorizzi. In a perfectly ideal world, Odorizzi pitches 34 games x 5 innings and Romero pitches 34 x 4 innings, which gets him to 136 innings. In reality, he can pitch more innings than that. In reality, somebody from among those five starters will also get hurt. When that happens, Romero slides into that guy's slot and could get up into the 160-170 range if effective. Meanwhile, a Gonsalves, Stewart, Thorpe etc., dominate in Rochester, ready to slide in at a moment's notice to one of the spots. If there are times when the commitment to starts from the first three don't line up to have Mejia and Pineda get all of the remaining 60 starts, there might be occasion to bring up one of these guys for a spot start. So that would give us Gibson (195), Berrios (195), Odo (170), Mejia (150), Pineda (155 based on past durability), and Romero (use the 136, since if he gets more it would likely be at the expense of one of the first five. That gives you 991 innings from six roster spots, leaving us with 460 innings to get to the magic 1450. For those 460 innings, assume that the goal is to use and rest Rogers appropriately to get about 70. Similarly, target getting May around 70. If not abused, target Reed for 70. That leaves 250 innings and you've used nine spots with guys who can be effective. I'm not sure i want to trust Busenitz, Hildy, and the rest with that remaining 250, which is why I go after three relievers who can pitch 70 innings each. My first choice is David Robertson, though there are several other good ones. Then, Busenitz, Hildy, etc., are put in the position of covering for injuries, rather than being counted on for high-leverage stuff. That gives a 12-man staff that pitches 1410 of the 1450 innings. The other 40 come from 1) time during September when rosters are expanded; 2) the few times during the year when the staff has been stretched and they have to use the Rochester shuttle for a few games; and 3) a spot start or two from the minor league callups as described . But for the most part, the staff gets through the 25-man roster portion of the season with just 12 guys, leaving Rocco with a four-man bench at all times. Guys are going to get hurt, sure. But the point of my approach is to construct a pitching staff where there are 12 quality guys who COULD cover the 1450 innings. Then, the rookie starters and unproven relievers have demonstrated which of them are actually ready, rather than being counted on from the beginning. And that doesn't count the Justin Verlander-type midseason pickup, since this foolproof plan is guaranteed to have us contenders. When JVesqe comes on board, everybody slides down a notch. Same thing with the mid-season bullpen pickup if needed. Now, about the offense...

Robertson on a 2 year (or 2 + option) remains my first choice. But if we've got plenty left over, let's add Soria as well. Robertson, Familia, Ottavino, Soria, May, Rogers, Reed + whoever. If five of that seven are healthy at any given time, I could live with that.

Chief, I didn't think they had phones when you were that age. Or colleges.

But speaking of Bam Bam, I'd think that a Rocco would certainly be a step up over mere Pebbles.

"...Boston isn't really laid out on a grid and you can get disoriented pretty easily,..." Understatement of the year. When I first took my son a few years ago, I think I crossed the Mass Turnpike about eight times trying to get there. I felt like Chevy Chase in London. But thanks for this. This kind of experience is a ton of fun. I was in Kansas City while the Royals were in San Francisco for the weekend series in 2014. We went to the Power and Light District during the game, and it was the most fun non-Twins baseball experience I've ever had. I happen to have a work trip to Hartford, Conn., this weekend, so I'm suspecting something of the same if we sneak up to Boston for an evening.

I refuse to pay for any Internet news site. Well, except for one. I hope TD never needs to go the pay route, but this site is awesome and makes being a fan much more fun, so I'm making an exception for the Handbook. I've placed my order, with payment, and look forward to the reading. Think my boss will notice that I have "Meeting -- Thad and Derek" on my calendar and all of next Friday morning is blocked out?

He only needs 23 more HRs to be the all-time leader among guys born in Germany. That wouldn’t be the wurst news.

The confusion points to the issue. I fell asleep on the couch and woke up in time for the final batter, but couldn't remember if it was almost 1:30 or almost 2:30 here in Indiana! I guess it was 2:30, so yeah, that makes it 11:30 in Arizona. Lasting until 11:30 would be okay for the occasional extra-inning game. It's when 11:30 is around the seventh-inning stretch like it was for me last night that it's a problem.

Your "cumulative effect" comment sums it up well, particularly for those of us in EDT. I'm traveling to Arizona for work this weekend, and I'm looking forward to experiencing MST zone for watching games. Even last night's game would have been over at what, 10:30?

I remain pretty intrigued with Mejia. Once a top-100 prospect. Good minor league numbers, while always significantly younger than the league average. Good, but short, starts in Minnesota this year. Left-handed. Though they shut him down, the injury was described as minor, and there was really no point to rushing him back, other than for tryout purposes. I'd rather he be fully healthy for 2019. (Also, that I was the last one on the Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey bandwagons should not be held against Mr. Mejia.)

Read an article yesterday saying that Kratz was 3rd among 39 catchers in pitch framing. He may have just showed it. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/10/13/17971446/erik-kratz-milwaukee-brewers-postseason-nlcs-catcher-framing-pitchers

Whaddaya know, another opportunity for someone on Twins Daily to suggest Dozier's not clutch. :-)

David Robertson. He's been about as consistently excellent as they come for about about eight years.

As always, there have been some really great posts and descriptions this season. This one, however, has to be in the running for "Post of the Year."

Let’s see — two teams with a combined record of 136-177 and we’re at 2:38 through five innings.

Pretty RISPy. Average climbed to .194 in those situations.

Six of the RBIs came on a pair of bases-loaded doubles in 1978, first in a 3-1 win and then in a 5-1 win.

Uh, let’s see — anybody got a good recipe for, oh, I don’t know, enchilada casserole or something?

There’s not a huge difference between what we’re proposing — I’m basically pushing things out a year. With the relative youth of the staff, I’d kinda like to ensure we have him in 2020. Giving him the opt out, it still gives him the chance to go after a payday if he thinks he’s earned it, but it does take away the QO possibility.

Guess not.

Thanks, Ash. Does that mean I get the game thread all to myself? This should be fun.

Thanks for these links. Good reading. Here’s an interesting one as well: https://www.cooperstowncred.com/will-ted-simmons-ever-make-hall-fame/ It makes a pretty convincing case for Ted Simmons being deserving, yet the Jaws link you cite clearly show Mauer above Simmons. Simmons fell off the writer’s ballot after one year in what the author claims was the most-stacked ballot in 30-some years. He’s been within one vote of making it from the Veterans Committee. Which points to a significant part — guys are affected by the quality of the rest of the ballot. Fortunately, as I look at the upcoming list, my sense is that the ballot will be not be particularly loaded. Lots of Hall of Very Good guys, but after you take out the first-ballot guys like Jeter and Rivera, I think he stacks up pretty well. https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/future-eligibles#2019-eligibles

I generally like what we have, with a couple ideas... 1. Given that both Gibson and Pineda are free agents after 2019, I’d try extending Gibson a bit, perhaps with a three-year offer with opt-out after two. 2. I’d also like to have a bit more experience. While a Corbin would be nice, I’d rather not go that high on a starter. I’m thinking a 2/$24MM offer for J.A. Happ. As a 36-year-old in a few weeks, I don’t see him getting a three-year deal in this environment. Starting spring training with Berrios, Gibson, Happ, Odo, Pineda/Mejia as the plan and the rookies ready to step in feels better. (Then, a couple of Reed/Rodney/Duke-type contracts for the bullpen and try to improve the lineup for the Mannysota Twins.)