IndianaTwin

So you’re saying top third in fWAR and third in the number of players to reach the majors? Based on the narrative on TD, I’m assuming this is faulty data…

I don’t know the source either, but I wonder if the 10 percent of all minor leaguers making it to the majors would include those drafted from high school and international free agents. That would change the denominator significantly in comparison to those drafted.

I think he might have said something in one post-July 31 interview that hinted at him being frustrated. Not an unlikely reaction from any human being when coworkers they appreciate have been removed from the work environment But on the internet, that counts as factual, forever and ever, Amen. Be prepared to hear this as a mantra for as long as Ryan is here, even if that’s after departing as a free agent following two more seasons. Or even longer as in the case of Sonny Gray, for whom repeated comments about liking the Twins and being open to staying still haven’t outweighed in some minds a couple of negative reactions at having been pulled from a game, reactions that I would add are actually the kind a team wants to have from its most competitive athletes.

I’d prefer the language of “it would be irresponsible not to listen to offers” over “make him available.” The former implies listening, the latter implies actively pursuing trades. It would also be irresponsible for them to take anything less than a haul. The farm system is considered strong, so I would expect two major league ready players, particularly a catcher and a first baseman. I don’t like the thought of trading Ryan, but I also don’t like the thought of what is currently on the roster for those two positions.

Correa is somewhat polarizing, so it will be interesting to see the tenor of comments. Though he clearly is stronger on a per game basis, I don’t think you can ignore Smalley having twice the bWAR. And if Correa gets credit for postseason heroics, Gagne needs a boost for being the shortstop on two World Series champs. I think if Correa plays out his contract in Minnesota, he likely reaches that status. At one point, I even thought that if he stayed at his top level, it wouldn’t have been a given that a HOF plaque would have had an Astros hat. He hasn’t, so a HOF plaque seems doubtful, period, without a late-career renaissance. At any rate, it seems like SS is the biggest need for an upgrade on the all-time Twins team. The second-teamer at many positions is stronger than the top candidates at SS.

I heard that too! 😀

Not even Mario Mendoza!

I was going to say, "Not to nit pick, but did Punto actually have a heydey?" But then I looked and saw he actually had a year with a bWAR of 3.8 and had 6.7 over a three-year period. It was a fairly mild hey and not much longer than a day, but I stand corrected.

I went to seminary. I'm not seeking to inject religion into this post, but I think you'll get my point. We had an assignment to describe what we thought was the biggest threat to the Bible. I said it was the bumper sticker, our tendency to reduce things to a sound bite.

Um, this is one move. A largely administrative one to fill a spot. Are we that concerned that they picked up a guy with a minor league wRC+ of 106, including a 109 this year, and with experience at five defensive positions? Don't be surprised when they waive him this winter in hopes he'll clear and give them St. Paul roster filler.

Quote snipped for brevity, with two phrases bolded for emphasis. I agree throughout, Doc, and applaud you for emphasizing the notion of context. There is nearly always more to the situation than meets the eye. You didn't reference the infamous, "I don't do that slump thing" comment. Let's look at the context. Royce missed most of the beginning of the season because of injury. We know the stories of him battling back through injury, We can imagine the frustration he felt at finally being healthy and getting hurt in the first game of the season after going two-for-two with a homer. And then he battled back from injury, returning on June 4 and going on a tear. After a doubleheader on June 16 he was .390 with a 1.398 OPS in his relatively small sample size. And then he went 0-for-5, dropping his average to .348 and OPS to 1.252. What does a good player do after a day like that? Focuses on having a better day tomorrow. And Royce did -- and he bounced back and went 4 for 7 with two home runs the next two days, putting the average back up to .377 and the OPS to 1.376. I didn't hear the interview, but I used to be a journalist. If I go to him after the second game, my opening comment is something like, "Wow, Royce. You went 0 for 5 on Friday night, but you really bounced back yesterday and today." And Royce said, "I don't do that slump thing." What do we have? We have a young, exuberant player, celebrating that he's back and healthy, celebrating that he bounced back from a rough game to put together a couple good games. He's such a positive-energy guy (at least was at that point) that I couldn't help but hearing him saying, "Yeah, I had a rough game Friday night, but I know you can't dwell on that, because then you start to spiral down. It's important to bounce back as quickly as you can. I focus on the positive -- I don't do that slump thing." Again, I didn't hear the interview. But frankly, that's the attitude I want in a talented athlete. Is he saying he's never going to have a bad game? No player is dumb enough to say that. Is he even saying he's never going to have a bad week? I don't think so. To me, he's saying that when those things happen, he's going to focus on getting out of the bad streak rather than focusing on the bad stretch to the point that it turns into something bigger, to the point it turns into a thing in his head. Unfortunately, after a couple more games (when 3 for 9 brings your average down), he then had one of those weeks, going 2 for 25 over an eight-day period. And he got excoriated for it, with people never letting him hear the end of it. We like to tear people down in our society, so when someone is going good, we can't wait to see him fail. I confess to being guilty of that too often. That's the context I see. I don't have a TV package, so I haven't seen him play many games, but from things I've read and the few interviews I've heard, it sure seems like that was the point that started sucking the joy out of him. And with every failure, with every thing he says that people don't like, it gets piled on deeper. My hope? The right new manager and Buxton make a visit to his house in November, with the message, "We care about you. We believe in you." And then Buxton takes him under his wing as a mentor. Byron's been through similar stuff, both the unrealistic expectations and the struggles with injuries. As you said, "If he ONLY turns out to be a .270 hitter with 30+ Dbls and 20+ HR and an acceptable OB%, that's still a very good and valuable player." I just hope that if he does that, people will allow themselves to cheer for him. ---------------------------- EDIT to add: I just found the full original quote. "I don't do that slump thing,'" Lewis said June 20, 2024 after responding to an 0-for-5 game with three hits, including a homer that broke the scoreboard in left field. "That's not a real thing for me. I understand that that's a thing, baseball, you're going to go into a slump or whatever, but for me, I don't have that mindset. It's a new day." I got no problem with that as a full quote.

Thanks for reminding me of the specific injury, Trov. I remember folks pretty immediately saying he came back too quickly. That was probably the case, but if I recall correctly, that was about the time they were in such desperate times that they really didn't have a choice. It was when they signing guys like Clemens and Jonah Bride off the DFA list. His rehab stint wasn't even long enough to play back-to-back days on defense, so it's not surprising he struggled early.

And perhaps a bit off-topic in that it doesn't pertain specifically to this Lewis article, but hats off to @Matt Braun. This arbitration series has been the most enjoyable TD content I've read this offseason. Keep 'em coming.

To @Cris E's point about being hurt the first half of the year, note the following. Still not to his potential in the second half, but a noticeable difference. Note as well the comment about the halves being determined by the All-Star Break. The Twins only had 66 games after the break and he played 64. I'm guessing he wasn't fully healthy, but for that stretch he certainly showed he could play (nearly) every day. And 66 games is 41 percent of the season, so this is 27 HR, 96 RBI with 29 SB-level play over a full season. Personality speculation abounds on TD, but I also get the sense that Lewis will respond better to Buxton's type of leadership than to Correa's. With the down price he's going to get, this is one of the easiest decisions in the mix. I predict the Twins get an incredible bargain on him in 2026.

"Dramatic loss of sprint speed" that still generated 12 stolen bases, including eight in the month of September when the breaks were taken off the team.

It appears Prato was let go at some point. He finished the season in Indianapolis in the Pirate system.

Thanks, Bean, for this summary. Looking at his game logs and pitch counts, he looks like another (see Raya above) where they have used a very structured buildup of days off and pitch counts. At SABR this year, when the Twins braintrust described their pitcher development, they spoke of building an individualized program for each person after the player has spent a year in the system and they've had a chance to gather data. It seems logical that they would prioritize keeping the highest-regarded guys closest to their structure, which seems to speak positively as to how they view Prielipp. His results weren't top-notch at Wichita, though he did have a 4:1 k:bb and struck out 10.7/9. But given that they finished him with four starts at St. Paul, it seems to point to beginning the year at St. Paul and being near the top of the SP list after whatever's left of Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR and then Bradley/Abel/Matthews, etc. If that puts him somewhere around No. 10, that points to him potentially getting the call for at least a couple starts if effective in St. Paul and a potential Liriano treatment if he's banked good starts and the team can get some effective innings out of him in a pennant race. I could live with that for 2026.

I was once going through the rack of game-used jerseys at the team store, lamenting that they cost too much for my budget. Then there was one that had my surname, thanks to the roster presence of a middle reliever with that name. I bought it and wore it to Puckett's HOF induction ceremony, where a guy said, "You must be related to (said reliever), because nobody but a family member has one of his jerseys." It's not an uncommon name, so I'm guessing I could wear it to a game these days and hardly a person there would know it's an actual player.

Reminds one of the Uecker story, from his days of doing games with Cosell, who apparently didn't appreciate Uecker too much. Uecker: Some story contradicting Cosell. Cosell: Don't be so truculent. You probably don't even know what truculent means. Uecker: Sure I do. If I borrowed your pickup, that would be the truc-u-lent.

You had me at "went to college in Iowa." -"FromIowaButLiveInIndianaTwin" was too long to be a screen name. But seriously, Indian Hills is a top-notch program to have been part of the journey. From Wikipedia: Now known as the Warriors, the baseball team has made 12 appearances at the JUCO World Series in Grand Junction, CO. Since the program's inception in 1961, Indian Hills has totaled more than 120 alumni who signed or were drafted to play professional baseball. As of 2022, 10 alumni are either playing or coaching at the professional level.

First column is 2024, second is 2025. Raya may indeed end up in the bullpen, but he's been lengthened as a starter. I suspect the last number of outings in 2025 were about "load management" as they were about a transition to the pen. The last games were very structured. First it was 2.2 innings (the 30-pitch game and then five days later, then several outings spaced four days apart and then three games spaced three days apart. I do agree with your takes on the others.

Blue Jays? Orioles? Cardinals? I love trains, and I live in a town with multiple tracks because it's near a major yard, so I'm used to having to wait pretty regularly. But I love riding them. Mrs. IT and I are finalizing a trip on the Southwest Chief from Chicago to L.A., timed to coordinate with Iowa basketball games at UCLA and USC. I guess that means my favorite birds to watch are Hawks. And yeah, the art. I've wondered too how people pull off putting paint on train cars. I'm not smart enough to know where there are gang markings or other inappropriate stuff, but it sure looks like some of those folks are pretty gifted artists.

I would consider a split contract that pays on the scale of $1.4M for days on the MLB roster and an above-average rate for days on the minor league roster. If I'm understanding it correctly (and someone will correct me if I'm not), that doesn't tie up the 40-man spot, but keeps him as the known-quantity option for addition later. If he has comfort with the organization, that might be the guarantee he needs. I'm not sure that he'd get a major league offer elsewhere, so the above-average minor league rate could be attractive.

I didn't go to the work of checking this, but it would be interesting to see how many debuts happened after July 31 compared to previous years. Like you, I'd assume there were significantly more. Comparatively speaking the bullpen makeup seemed relatively stable in the first two-thirds of the year.

Which is why I've never been so overly anxious about there being too many LH batting outfielders on the roster. All else being equal, as long Buxton is in CF, my preference would be for the two best hitters among other outfielders to be LH (or switch hitter). (That's not a Larnach-specific post, but rather one about the overall angst people seem to have on this topic.)