IndianaTwin

Over the past five years, an average of 12 pitchers have started games each season. A handful of those were used as Openers, but there wasn't a year in which less than eight starters were used with some regularity at some point in the season. The average number of guys to serve as true starters was around 10. With that in mind, I don't mind heading to spring training with full rotations for both the Twins and the Saints. However, given the reality of the rest of the roster, I'd consider turning one into a bat as seems to be the inclination of folks on the related string that's going right now.

TD: The Twins are going to trade Ryan, Lopez and Buxton. The Athletic: The Twins are not going to trade Ryan, Lopez and Buxton. TD: Okay, let's try an article on how the Twins are going to trade Garver...

Right -- but they don't have to make 26-man decisions at this point. So I'd gladly add a Coulombe to the 40-man at the cost of using an option to send Kreidler or McCusker back to St. Paul now. And if they magically make it through spring training without injuries and have to make a 26-man decision then, optioning Ohl isn't an issue. You're right on Jackson likely cutting Pereda from consideration for the Opening Day mix, but I have to assume they see enough in Jackson to view him as a step up from Pereda if both are healthy. And if one (or Jeffers) is hurt, the IL resolves the question.

I think "cutting" from the roster is a relative term when McCusker, Kreidler, etc., are on it.

Below the median, technically. 🤣 I'm curious about your choosing different plate appearance minimums

I think the accusations were that he was letting the other team know what pitches were coming in hopes that his team would lose a playoff game to have the season come to an end more quickly.

Fat-free Ranch? They make that?

I'm not going to bet the house either, RB. First, there's the issue that I don't tend to bet, and second, I don't think the HOA guidelines allow it. And NO WAY am I betting Mrs. IT. She's too awesome. The kids are amazing as well. We do have a 2004 Honda Accord that I'd consider. But I'm with you in saying I'm willing to bet some hope, or at least have some willingness to be in the boat with you. I'll nuance my take a little bit. I've liked how you've used Ty France as your archetype for the type of player you don't want them to sign, so I'll use that as well. Starting pitcher: I feel really good about what's currently on the roster. Outfield: They've got Buxton. I like your analogy of flooding youth through the filter. I see Wallner, Larnach (both not fully youth, but not vets either), Martin, Roden, Outman, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Mendez, Jenkins and I think there's enough talent to flood through the filter to make a pretty solid, maybe even good to very good, outfield. I don't want them to sign a Ty France here (or a Michael A. Taylor). 3B/SS/2B: They have started the flooding. They are still in the growing pains, but I'm willing to read something into a 1-1 draft pick playing something like 64 out of the final 66 games and doing so at something like 27 HR/29 SB pace (Lewis). I'm willing to put some stock in a rookie cranking out 2.0 bWAR in 49 games with an OPS+ of 128 (Keaschall). And yes, I'm willing to put some stock in a guy who hasn't yet turned 25, was very recently being seen as a Top 50 prospect and who was suddenly thrown into the fire as a full-timer at the toughest non-catcher spot (Lee). I haven't seen Culpepper, but folks on here seem ready to flood the filter with him as well. I wish there were a couple more guys to consider flooding so they could have the little more room for error that they do in the outfield, but I don't want them to sign a Ty France (or a Kyle Farmer). I want them to ride with these guys. 1B: Here's the primary place I slightly differ from you. I don't see Clemens and Julien as flooding the filter. I don't see others in the pipeline. I value 1B defense, particularly when the rest of the infield is so young. I agree that Pete Alonso isn't coming to save the day, but here's where I'd like to see them spend $5M and get this year's Carlos Santana to play great defense and bat 7th or so. I don't know who that is, but between Santana and France, they've found some guys. C: I like Jeffers getting more games and feel good about that. Instead of an every-other-day pattern, methodically give him two games out of three and that's a manageable 108 games. They aren't ready to flood the filter with Tait and the other guy that I can't remember. I would have liked to shoot a smidge higher than Jackson (think Victor Caratini at $3M), but I'm not sure they still couldn't. And if not, I'm okay with them trying to unleash something in Jackson and maybe stretching Jeffers to 120 games. Bullpen: The huge unknown. There's a small handful of guys in Sands, Topa, Orze and Funderburk to start with. There's a couple that have gotten coffee (Adams, Ohl). There seems to be a plan for some transitioning of starters. I don't think they are far from flooding the filter, but it takes a LOT of bodies to do this on the mound. I'd like to see them spend $10M on three relievers on one-year contracts (Coulombe is my archetype) to give some sense of stability, particularly at the beginning of the season. And probably some guys on minor league contracts. It may start the season as a 30th-percentile bullpen, but they've historically done a better job of improving the bullpen over the course of the season than people have given them credit for. If they can turn this into a 60th or 70th percentile bullpen with a rotation that's top notch, that's a pretty good overall staff. I'm willing to take Falvey at his word that he's more interested in adding than subtracting. I did my upgrades with a very modest $15M-18M. Is that a 95-win team for the season? No. Is that a 90-win team? Probably not. But is that a team that can play the first third of the season at 76 win pace, the second part at 83 win pace and the third part at 91 game pace and play meaningful games in September. I'm willing to believe it can be. And if it doesn't happen, this year's France at 1B and three relievers can still get something at the deadline that will supplement the rest of the flooding that has been happening as they further gear to 2027 when the only pieces on this entire page that they lose are Jeffers and the France/relievers quartet. Meanwhile, they've done a lot of that sorting you've been talking about, including a sorting out of owners, and are very well positioned for next offseason. But yes, all that changes with a trade of both starters and Buxton.* (I actually think they can withstand trading ONE of the starters as long as they get MLB talent back. And by MLB talent, I don't mean another MLB-"ready" talent like Jenkins. I mean two actual major leaguers who will be locked in at 1B and a bullpen spot on Opening Day, for example. If nobody offers that, no can do.)

No, no, no. Simply putting any ballpark food into a plastic helmet erases all the calories. It's also an established fact that any food tastes at least 40 percent better when served in a plastic helmet.

Dead on. And on your last sentence, one of the things that I've appreciated about the front office is that it has seemed to be pretty transparent with players behind the scenes. They seem to be in regular contact with the top-end players and their agents. I think that's good. Overall, I try not to do much psychoanalysis on what players are thinking based on a comment or two here and there. It was just a few years ago that much of TD was convinced Byron was on the first train out of town when he got the opportunity because of the Twins having sent him to the minors when he was hitting .156. Then surprise, surprise, he signed a seven-year deal.

I've had the same reaction to the "fire sale" language. Trading five guys who are going to be lost to FA at the end of the year isn't a fire sale. While painful in its own way, trading four relievers (one of whom isn't arb-eligible and one who will barely get above the minimum) isn't really fire sale either. As you note, that only leaves Correa,

You're a lot higher on Varland than me, but that's okay -- that's part of what comes with being a fan. I do think you're on target in that the Varland trade has seembed to be the biggest lightning rod move in the batch.

Brevity? Mrs. IT would suggest I’m not familiar with that term.

Concise!

I think we're actually reasonably close on our takes, though I may not have been as clear as I could have been. I didn't go as far into 2027-28 as you have; in fact I didn't even go as far into 2026 as you did. My primary point was that it's not that helpful to look at these on a case-by-case basis, but rather that they need to be looked at in aggregate, because one move always has an effect on another. And that it's way too soon to declare whether they won or lost. And @bunsen82adds another variable, the difference in draft picks, that adds a level of complexity that makes these things even tougher to evaluate.

Trades always have a context. And I don't think it's that helpful to use how someone did for another team as the reference point. Their usage elsewhere can be different than what it would have been in Minnesota. Take it to extremes -- say Duran, Jax and Varland all turn into closers with their new team. That wasn't going to happen in Minnesota. With that in mind, I view the trade deadline as: Correa, Duran, Dobnak, Jax and Varland (assuming that all the FAs were gone at year-end). for Mikulski, Mendez (No. 25 in Twins system), Valloria, Tait (3), Abel (MLB), Jimenez, Gallagher (14), Armstrong, Horn, Bradley (MLB), Outman (MLB), Rojas (5), Roden (MLB) and $70M over three years (plus a projected $13M saved on Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak). --------- At this point, it's hard to argue it as a win for the Twins. The effect on this year's roster is that they lost their top three relievers and the starting shortstop for no one who's really guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster (and only Abel, Bradley, Outman and Roden realistically have a shot). There's also no inclination on how this year's $36M savings on Correa/Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak will be spent. BUT, it has the potential to be a huge win for the Twins if they use the money savings well and even a few of these guys pan out.

Have you thought of changing your name to Betterbury?

And the 2024 he was off to before injury. He had a 124 OPS+ and was on pace for 33 HR, etc. He's not quite 26 yet.

In my previous post, the example that I considered using was Ryan or Lopez for Casas and a position player (Mayer?). (When you get the GM job, can I be your assistant? We seem to be on the same page.)

I get what you're saying, but... To be competitive I think you need to have a couple studs amongst your young guys. You have the studs in place in Ryan, Lopez, Buxton. Trading them and Jeffers gives you more prospects, but you then have to assume that several of the prospects are going to become the studs. If you're going to assume that several of the prospects are going to become studs, you might as well pair them with the existing studs you have. I would listen to offers on Ryan and Lopez (and only trade one), but I'm only trading them for two players already in the majors. I'm not sure other teams will offer that. You can say that I'm a dreamer...

Overall, they've cast themselves with youth, which I think is the right call. If the youth don't come through, signing Kyle Tucker and Pete Alonso wouldn't be enough to put them over the edge. But if the youth do come through, a Santana-level 1B along with 2-3 Coulombe-level relievers would go a long way in shoring up the gaps you've named.

All in all, this FO seems to make a higher than average number of moves. I hope that's the case again. I think the challenge (both for the FO and for fans' patience) is that most of the moves are likely to be what I call needle-nudgers rather than big splashes. Signing Orze and trading someone with little chance of playing for a potential backup catcher in Jackson are both needle-nudgers.

I like the thought, but with ownership uncertain, I don't see it happening. If his arb salary is the MLBTR-projected $6.6M and ownership would give the blessing for 3 years at $10-$12M per season, if I'm the front office, I would stay with the $6.6M on Jeffers and use the extra $3-5M on a bullpen guy.

Implied here seems to be the encouragement for folks to not get their collective shorts in a wad when not every need has been addressed by the end of the winter meetings.

I'd agree with you on this batch of seven. My DFA order would be McCusker, Kreidler, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Outman and Pereda as needed. I assume your roster is four columns by 11 lines in order to accommodate the current roster, but it looks like filling the three reliever blanks would be a good fit! Let's start with McCusker for Coulombe.