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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    The Twins can still beat most of our predictions, which were mostly in the lower 70s for wins. My last calculation was around 78 wins and I'm standing by that for now. We'll see though!
  2. Doomtints
    "If it pleases you, sir, I know I barely deserve to be in your presence, but if I avert my eyes while I address you, could I please ask you to not infect my computer with viruses?"
  3. Doomtints
    I turned on an ad blocker and shockingly the redirects have stopped, the page is no longer loading constantly and slowing things down, etc. etc. I know you make (probably some) money on ads, and if you can treat this seriously I will be happy to disable the ad blocker on your site. Until then, the safety of the files on my computer > your cash.
  4. Doomtints
    A few things: - Before last year, the sample sizes on him were very small. Can't use any numbers before last year to determine his worth. - He was also terrible until June of last year. - Regarding point #1, it may just be that he is only good for 10 innings a month, at most, before things go south. I admit I know nothing about Pressly's pitching arsenal or tendencies, but I will add that if the Twins used him sparingly for 2 years, there was probably a reason. If anything 'happened' it is either that he is a slow starter, is overworked, or has been exposed. We are probably overthinking a guy who was just medial reliever.
  5. Doomtints
    It would take only a couple of minutes for the webmaster to figure out which ads are doing it. Disable one, turn them back on one by one until you find them. When I visit this site in Chrome, the pages in the forums reload constantly. Watch the refresh button and the page load icon on the tab. I have already brought up the viruses/malware/browser hijacking that happens here. Your ads suck, mang, and I doubt you're making any money from them because everyone ignores ads these days. Find some ads that don't destroy your site's reputation. You realize that Google can see this sort of thing when it crawls and will lower your site ranking, right?
  6. Doomtints
    The Twins don't have enough worthwhile prospects to start shuffling them off for relievers. Do you remember a guy named Bill Smith? if the Twins won't play Melotakis after him being on the roster all these years, why the heck would anybody else? Dumping him off would be great but the Twins would get the same type of player in return. If the Twins want to build the bullpen they'll have to do it with good old fashioned cash.
  7. Doomtints
    Nah. Grossman has been starting many games with Rosario being a late innings defensive replacement. Rosario is essentially the 4th OF right now. There is no need, or room, to call up anyone. And to address who you are responding to, people aren't talking much about Rosario because of the above....
  8. Doomtints
    Bullpen got a bit overworked after a long game -- which was their faults mind you, though they played mostly OK in extra innings. They had a major meltdown in the next game, probably due to fatigue/confidence issues from the previous game. Regarding the Astros game, this was the first time in Astros franchise history where they managed to come back and win when down by 6 runs in the 8th. We are starting to see the types of problems that originally sank the Twins last year. Decent starting pitching followed by bullpen meltdowns. Later came the starting pitching meltdowns. Not a great sign, but for now it's best to assume the bullpen just needs some rest. On the plus side, the Twins are hitting well which can't hurt, something which the Twins lacked when they tanked last year. Getting some bullpen help can't hurt, but it's a bit early for panic moves. The Twins should not move any assets to get bullpen help. Trade with cash, move up minor leaguers, trade pointless assets (of which there are not many), or just pick up a free agent.
  9. Doomtints
    #5 pitchers are irrelevant. Throw a warm body out there and if you find one who can keep his ERA under 5, marry him. Don't waste any resources trading with the goal of filling the #5 spot. Stuff like that was what got Bill Smith canned.
  10. Doomtints
    Mientky, at the time, said that losing Guzman was too much for the team. They felt they could not do it without him.
  11. Doomtints
    Yeah, that's an article warning about snake-oil supplements and vitamins making claims that were never tested. Good advice from the FDA. This does not mean we should not do a study.
  12. Doomtints
    You don't know what a mirage is?
  13. Doomtints
    The problem with the 01 Twins wasn't pitching, the problem was the offense fell off a cliff. First half 55-32, 450 runs scored, 387 runs allowed. Second half 30-45, 321 runs scored, 379 runs allowed They peaked at 56-32, 5 games up. Cue gruesome Guzman injury and Lawton trade. Within 2 weeks they lost the division lead and within a month they were 5 games back. The 2017 Twins probably won't be 55-32 at the mid-point, but we'll see. And hopefully they won't shock the team by trading off the top player on offense if they are!
  14. Doomtints
    Hm. So under Ryan, the clubhouses were full of sodas and Twinkies? I'm not sure I buy it. The Twins have nutritionists on staff, right? Seems truly surprising that junk food became less accessible just this year. I'm betting the clubhouses last year were mostly full of protein shakes, protein bars, and gatorade, just like this year. Sugar is important in youth for brain and nervous system development, which is why children crave it so much. But for adults sugar over a very small amount is poison, and children get too much of it as it is. On another note, it's worth studying if a short-term, high-sugar diet might help concussion victims. Athletes these days stay away from sugar and have high protein diets, which may be the opposite of what the brain needs to recover from a concussion. Compounding the problem is concussion symptoms can become permanent or semi-permanent if not treated the right way early on.
  15. Doomtints
    Although I am addicted to stats and granular analysis, I also have a soft spot for the simpler, immeasurable theories. I think the Twins improvement with defense this year coupled with Berrios's arrival might just make the difference. The Twins have a bullpen and defense that can bridge the gaps after the two good top-of-the-rotation starters. If Berrios and Santana continue along with an ERA in the lower 3s, good things will happen -- and falling to the 3s leaves a lot of room for regression and some bad outings. But don't forget -- an untimely trade (Lawton) and an untimely injury (Guzman) sank the rising 2001 Twins faster than one could have imagined. Not saying this team is like the 2001 Twins, mind you, just pointing out that young teams can collapse when seemingly small things happen. Still not completely sold, and I don't think I will be until pretty late in the year, but it doesn't matter. This is a great year to be a Twins fan.
  16. Doomtints
    I must admit, what they did in Baltimore has started to get me a bit excited. I'm still skeptical that they will finish .500. At what point do we start to treat this bag of rugrats as serious contenders?
  17. Doomtints
    One thing that works is that you can take two smaller sample sizes from the same data set and combine them into a larger, more trustworthy data set. Try that with Duffey and let me know what you find. Here's what we've got on Duffey: 1) Scouting reports that always predicted him to be a good bullpen arm. 2) Him being a good bullpen arm, as predicted. 3) Him being initially called up for an emergency start, but by doing well and surprising the team, the manager went on record several times stating things like, "I'll keep him starting as long as he defies the odds, but we think he's a bullpen arm." 4) A two-pitch repertoire that typically does not work for starters, but can be just fine for the bullpen (see Glen Perkins). 5) A guy who, as a starter, was OK for 2 innings but whose ERA ballooned to 5.57 in the 3rd, 7.67 in the 4th, and 6.43 in the 5th -- a predictable problem for 2-pitch pitchers. 6) A guy whose ERA as a starter on 4 days of rest was 5.51, and on 5 days rest was 7.11. As a reliever he has a sub-3.00 ERA. 7) In his miragey 2015 campaign that people are calling great, he exited his 10 games with a total of 11 runners on base, including a couple of bases loaded jams. He paper stats benefited from the bullpen.
  18. Doomtints
    Which he did not do.
  19. Doomtints
    It's the motion involved with curveballs/sliders that cause the problem. I'd like to see a 100 MPH curveball.
  20. Doomtints
    1) Duffey is 26. He is middle aged by baseball standards. 2) Duensing failed quickly as a starter and that whole debacle killed Slowey's career. I notice you're not using Slowey as an example of a guy moved between SP and the pen. 3) We can save time if you just say, "No matter what anyone says, I want Duffey to start. The fact that there is an easy counter to every point I can make on this topic does not matter." Then we can agree to disagree and move on.
  21. Doomtints
    Liriano was 22 in 2006 and blew out his arm in the same year and was never the same again. You are literally using a player as an example who the Twins destroyed in his rookie year. No one was expecting Liriano to become a 99 ERA+ player for his career. What a tragedy, from ace to #5 in 16 starts. Duffey is 26 and doesn't have the same velocity or repertoire that Liriano had, regardless, nor does he have the same potential.
  22. Doomtints
    Is anyone calling him a "failed starter"? I'm calling him a successful reliever. The two things are not mutually exclusive. Leave him where he is, jerking him around won't help anyone.
  23. Doomtints
    "Berrios was the youngest Twins pitcher with 11 strikeouts in a game since a 22-year-old Francisco Liriano did so in 2006, and he was the first Twins pitcher to reach that mark within his first 16 career games since Bert Blyleven on Aug. 4, 1970 at age 19." -- Sarah Langs, ESPN Stats & Information Some of the fears around Berrios forgot his age and the normal development cycle of any good pitcher.
  24. Doomtints
    The Twins are not coming from a position of strength when it comes to trading away prospects. This is purely an academic conversation because if they did this they would be gutting themselves. As much as it sucks, TR left the Twins pretty thin and the organization needs to be acquiring prospects and not trading them, and they must explore free agency at the same time. Sure we heard this for a long time. The difference is under TR it was a BS excuse for not wanting to put in the effort to explore free agency or the trade market. Right now stocking the minors is a need, and the Twins can do both as any successful team does. The "we can only do one of these things successfully" was a dumb narrative that none of us should have ever accepted.
  25. Doomtints
    So it's an interesting conversation, then. Cool. We can always use more of that.
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