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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Target Field was the first stadium set up with Statcast. I don't buy it for a second that Falvey walked into a front office full of people who had never looked at it, who didn't have it integrated, etc. Target Field was the statcast pilot, for chrissakes. The MLB would not foot the bill to set this up in an organization incapable of looking at the data!
  2. Doomtints
    There are no solid 4/5 starters. The few teams in the league who have solid 4/5 starters actually have multiple 1/2/3 starters in the 4/5 roles. If Hughes is a 4/5 guy now, he is nothing but a warm body and his salary is a bust.
  3. Doomtints
    Nevertheless, it were for the Twins! I was talking about apples, your response is about oranges. The next obvious part of your argument is, then, if the Sox and Royals had not yet played the Twins, then the Twins would also not have yet played the Royals and Sox. The Twins record would likely be around 14-21 instead of 19-16 based on their winning percentage against everyone else. Personally, I prefer the premise that they can beat up on crappy teams. Without that, the Twins are on pace for only 70-71 wins with the assumption that the Sox and Royals records are flukes.
  4. Doomtints
    For the sake of argument, let's assume these will be the consistently "crappy teams" this year: Jays Royals White Sox Athletics Mariners The Twins have 41 games left against these opponents. Assuming they play well against these teams (.600 win %), they can count on 24 wins. Against the rest of baseball the Twins have a .409 winning percentage. They have 86 games against everyone else. Assuming they stay at a .409 W% v. everyone else, they can count on 35 wins. Using the above premises, the Twins are due for 59 more wins the rest of the year, which will give them 78 wins. This will be a great year for the young team, out-performing the most sensible predictions by 4-6 wins. Of course, we still have a small sample size. The Twins have yet to play many teams. They could end up better or worse than this. We will know more when we have more information.
  5. Doomtints
    It's pretty easy to see what's going on without even talking about lofty things like "regression." The Twins have feasted upon a couple of bad teams. Luckily for the Twins, these teams are in the division and we are in an the unbalanced schedule era. The Twins have 19 wins total, and 10 of them are against the White Sox and the Royals. 10-3 v. two teams. 9-13 v. everyone else. Will they "regress"? That's not even the point. How many wins can they get from crappy teams going forward? We know they'll be .500 or worse against good teams and probably mediocre teams as well.
  6. Doomtints
    Not exactly, but close.
  7. Doomtints
    Someone named Bill James defined #1 and #2 pitchers over a generation ago, when discussing the 1987 Twins championship season in fact. His data lead to the following conclusions: Essentially, #4 and #5 pitchers have abysmal W-L records, almost never anywhere near .500. #1 and #2 pitchers tend to have W-L records well over .500 and are where the bulk of team wins credited to the SP come from. #3 pitchers are around .500. (Bill James went on to say that the Twins pitching staff was typical in 1987 -- the only thing missing was a #3 pitcher. The other pitching roles were normal for WS champion teams). Of course, in this era we are told by some very loud people that W-L for pitchers is irrelevant. Bear in mind that I am just putting this definition out there for everyone to digest and not defending it. Nevertheless, using this definition, yes, Ervin Santana is a #1 or #2 pitcher. Probably a #2 but this year, so far, a #1. I prefer using my own stat to determine the worthiness of a starting pitcher -- the "meltdown ratio" which is the opposite of a quality start -- lasting less than 6 innings or allowing 3+ runs. Most of you will be surprised to learn that the best pitchers in the game still have "meltdowns" 40% of the time, with the worst having them 60% of the time. When the Twins picked up Santana, I ran this for him and he was at the top -- right around 40%. Take this as you will.
  8. Doomtints
    I have found that Twitter is the one place to keep up with the resistance. Parker added another tweet later saying that he looked at more footage and Berrios has always been adjusting his cap this way before stepping on the mound. To me it makes a lot of sense that a pitcher who rubs his hands in the dirt and then touches his cap in a ritual manner in the same place each time is going to end up with a dirty cap, but perhaps to other people this is less obvious.
  9. Doomtints
    Feel free to argue that the rest of your life if you want to. Your best hope to avoid that is that the Twins collapse.
  10. Doomtints
    No clue why a guy who has worked so hard to be a trusted Twins source would do this. And yeah, it's an accusation. Maybe he was having a bad day. Maybe his blood sugar was low. Maybe he needed more coffee. Maybe he just doesn't like Berrios. Who the hell knows. Until he speaks up this is just guessing, and he has not spoken up in spite of surely reading this thread. Whatever the case, without evidence this was the wrong thing to do. We all make mistakes, it's OK to own up to them.
  11. Doomtints
    You may not like the assertion but nevertheless history will be written that way. Of course, it's a big assumption at this point that the Twins will not fall apart before the end of the season. They are feasting on a couple of very bad teams and it's a long season.
  12. Doomtints
    Likely everyone will dismiss this as the poor joke that it is. Welcome to Minnesota, Berrios.
  13. Doomtints
    Hughes may still fall off a cliff. Offense has helped him. As for Gibson v Mejia, I don't know why a team would mess with Gibson unless Mejia fails in a larger sample size or gets injured, especially if the stories are true that Gibson was ignoring coaches. Go with youth, use Gibson for emergency depth.
  14. Doomtints
    Berrios has had his share of bad outings already. This start should help him tremendously -- he has now proven to himself that he can do this. Sure there will be ups and downs but we should all be encouraged by what we saw and be worrying a lot less about "bad outings" (even Cy Young had his share of them) or thinking silly things like how he only has a 5% chance of being above average.
  15. Doomtints
    We heard a lot over the past few years about how TR wasn't pursuing free agency or trading because he was keeping the minor leagues fresh. Seems this wasn't quite working out either. Water under the bridge, there is fresh blood in management who can work on building the team again instead of doing whatever it was that Ryan was doing.
  16. Doomtints
    There are no words. This accusation is inappropriate to put it mildly.
  17. Doomtints
    The other point would be if the Twins keep it up, the narrative of 2015 being an outlier season is false. 2016 was the outlier season.
  18. Doomtints
    Santiago is, so far, fulfilling his role as a good #2. Kintzler is, so far, fulfilling is role as a good closer. Breslow and Duffey are doing a great job in the pen, but there are more arms in the pen who are not good enough. On the offensive side, everyone is within striking distance of mediocre apart from Buxton. A couple are better than average, most are a bit worse. It has been written that with a good #1 and #2 pitcher, a team can be competitive as long as the rest of the team is competent. If this lasts, I think we are proving this to be true. But if true, this means WAR is a red herring and it's not about incremental contributions at each position, it's instead about a couple of top contributors in key roles.
  19. Doomtints
    The Twins are doing well thanks to two players playing at MVP levels and the rest of the team being close to average. But how long can this last? Are we shaking the WAR model to the core? http://i64.tinypic.com/149mn3m.png
  20. Doomtints
    The snark is strong with this one.
  21. Doomtints
    One wonders why you would believe otherwise with a small sample size?
  22. Doomtints
    Great game.
  23. Doomtints
    I imagine the org has him working on something and he will be up when they think he has it figured out. Not worried about it and it's WAAAY too early to draw conclusions about him based on last year.
  24. Doomtints
    Like everyone else, I'm not sure what the point is with this move. I could only guess as to what they could be thinking....
  25. Doomtints
    We know, which is why they were brought up in this convo.
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