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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Probably fair and about the best to be done at this point. But I have doubts Lugo can repeat his easily best career season at 35yo. And if Lopez can get in a groove earlier than he did the previous 2 years, I think an arguement could be made that he's possibly the #2 or #3 in the division.
- 14 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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With all due respect to the TD writers who are doing their best to provide content and context, and to TD members who share their opinions about the Twins current catching situation, I'm utterly fatigued at this point with the banter being presented. So here's an honest look about the depth. Jeffers and Vazquez provide a good game calling, durable, adequate defense overall performance behind the plate. Debate the value of each in regard to what they provide behind the plate as you will. Jeffers is far superior offensively, with upside, and Vazquez is what he is offensively, with hope he can be slightly better in 2025 if kept. Gasper is, pun intended, a last gasp for depth as what he is is a 1B contact hitter with limited power who COULD catch if needed. So then we come to the crux of an ongoing arguement about "who's next". That means, currently, Camargo and the recently acquired Cartaya. Ironically, both came from the Dodgers organization. And both are of similar age, Camargo is 24yo, and Cartaya is 23. Camargo was a secondary offering in a trade a couple years ago that nobody really paid a lot of attention to, and Cartaya was a top 100 prospect a couple years ago that fell on hard times when he hit AA. But for some reason, various opinions have Camargo as an easy drop from the 40 man if needed, and the recently acquired Cartaya as a potential steal of a prospect despite his downfall in prospect rankings and only being a year younger than Camargo. I'm not sure I understand the logic behind this. Also, to be fair, I have NO information to tell me that EITHER is far superior in game calling or handling a staff, which is the most important part of being a backstop. Nor do I have definitive information that either is just better behind the plate in regard to blocking the plate, which is a bit arbitrary depending on what defensive metric you choose to look at. But while "caught stealing" is open to interpretation depending somewhat on the pitcher and opportunity, Camargo has a MILB career % of 31% and Cartaya has a career % of 20. Cartaya pretty much raked at A ball levels with power, a great OB% and solid AVG. Meanwhile, Camargo began to perform better at AA. CARTAYA since 2022: .254/ .389/ .503/ .892 A BALL .189/ .278/ .379/ .656 AA BALL .221/ .323/ .363/ .686 AAA BALL CAMARGO since 2022: .262/ .310/ .483/ .793 AA BALL .259/ .323/ .503/ .826 AAA BALL .212/ .290/ .403/ .717 AAA BALL To be 100% fair, there are some splits in these seasons, but I've posted the combined numbers for both players each season and listed their levels based on where they spent the majority of their years/seasons played. Also being fair, it's been reported that Cartaya has had some back issues that might have affected his performance to some degree. If I'm not mistaken, to be fair, I believe Camargo had a minor injury that might have hindered his 2024 numbers somewhat. I am not in any way trying to discredit the Twins acquiring Cartaya as a flier who has potential to maybe turn around his career. It was a smart deal. Nor am I saying Camargo is a superior prospect. But the numbers do state, IMO, that Camargo is not to be dismissed as some easy cut if the Twins need a 40 man spot. In fact, i say "shame on the FO" for having a POTENTIAL backstop who they have too easily dismissed as a possible ML backstop. I chose 2022 numbers in comparison very deliberately. I did so not only because it was where Cartaya had his last good season, and Camargo took off, but because the Twins brought Noah Cardenas on. And then in 2023 they selected Andrew Cossetti. Cardenas is a quality catcher with a 28% CS in his young career but his bat disappeared at AA the same way Cartaya's bat disappeared. Cossetti needs defensive work, but his bat disappeared also in 2024 when he hit AA. There's hope for Cartaya to get his bat right. But there should also be some hope Cardenas and Cossetti will get their bats right. The Twins haven't ignored the catcher position the last few years, it just hasn't turned out right so far. Meanwhile, they actually have a possible ML catcher with a good arm and power and SOME bat potential they just keep ignoring. Dismissing potential talent on hand and giving them a legitimate opportunity is my one major grievance with the FO.
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It's my understanding they have a mid single digit investment. In other words, they are around 5%. That's not enough to have any influence over anything, nor is it an amount that couldn't be sold off easily. I can't imagine this will hold up anything in regard to a purchase at all.
- 14 replies
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- mat ishbia
- justin ishbia
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Disagree on Castro at 2B. He's the 10th man that most teams would kill to have. Agree that Lee's glovework is excellent, and maybe he's best at 3B with the more athletic Lewis at 2B. I don't think you lose any way you deploy them. Lewis's issue at 3B is a hitch he has throwing. Does he maybe have the better arm? I'm not certain. I don't think you lose any way. It's just finding the best comfort zone for each. But you're right about Lee hitting. I think a lot of expectation was placed on Lee as a surprise pick that a lot of people expected an All Star type of player. And who knows, he might be. I think he's going to be a good glove man wherever you place him. I'm not certain he's going to be a 20 HR type of hitter. IMO he's a .280 hitter with a good .340-ish OB with 30+ DBLS and 15-18 HR per season. He does better than that, he goes beyond GOOD to All Star status.
- 42 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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We're in agreement. But why does everyone focus on Camargo having a poor 2024 when he had a very good 2023? As well as a good 2022 when his bat started to come around? He had a .826 OPS for St Paul in 2023 with 21 HR. How soon people forget huh? And while I simply have NO WAY to compare how good, bad, better either catcher is defensively, the numbers show Camargo with a MILB career CS % of 31 vs 20% for Cartaya. Maybe Cartaya is just better blocking the plate and calling a game. Who knows? But he sure hasn't hit like Camargo in the upper levels, and he sure hasn't thrown like Camargo has. Ironic isn't it that both came from the Dodgers organization. One is way more proven, but the team who traded for him won't give him a chance to show what he can do. And we're debating the value of a younger player who's less proven as a viable option. And we're supposed to expect that our potential #4 catching option should induce the Twins to make a move. (Shudder). I have to wonder, if Cossetti or Cardenas suddenly rebounds in 2025, are we having a different discussion?
- 35 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- christian vazquez
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First, Jeffers is younger, less expensive, and a FAR better hitter with more power. We can agree to disagree on his defense...and many of us do...but he calls a good game and handles the staff well. Why on earth would they trade him and have ZERO ML catchers available for 2026? Second, I can't explain the Twins lack of using Camargo when he was brought up last season. A lot has been made of him having a down 2024 with the bat. But he was good in 2022, and even better in 2023. For his MILB career he's thrown out 31% of base stealers. I've heard he's a good teammate, and never heard that he's poor/lousy handling a staff, calling a game, or awful defensively. And his bat in the upper minors is far superior to what Cartaya has done thus far. So I strongly object to him not being a ML catcher option. What I object to is the Twins not giving him an opportunity! I think grabbing Cargaya on a flier is a great idea! I've read he's had a back issue of some sort recently. Is that part of the reason for the sudden disappearance of his bat? Is there more to it? Does he need to make adjustments? Has he just been exposed as a poor hitting bat once he reached the upper levels? I don't have the answers. But based on his earlier numbers and reportedly solid defense, he's worth working with for 2025 to see if he can take another step. While I really applaud most of what the FO has done since they've been in charge, my biggest complaint has been sticking with poor performing players too long instead of looking internally at options. I despise picking on individuals, BUT, an injured and poor performing Farmer and a generally bad Margot in every way except for a couple decent months against LHP instead of giving Helman and Keirsey an actual opportunity to see if they could do better is organizational malpractice as far as I'm concerned. The same with Camargo. Why in hell wasn't he allowed to start a few games and just SEE what he looked like when the opportunity presented itself? That's what you DO when you have the "next man up". How else do you ever find out what you may, or may not, have in your system? But in NO WAY does Cartaya make Vazquez suddenly more of a trade target. That's preposterous. He's not ready for ML duty at this point. What he DOES do is provide encouragement for 2026 if his back is good and the Twins can help him find his hit tool again. IF the Twins move Vazquez, it's to clear all of his contract, maybe with a sweetener, or most of his contract. They would then sign someone like Diaz or McCann or Grandal on a cheap deal and spend any savings on a LHRP or RHOF type of player. Cartaya is a flier with a potential for the future if his previously good bat at lower levels can be fixed. It's a smart move. But in NO WAY does he affect the 2025 team or any future moves.
- 35 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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Hold Up! The Twins Might Not Cut Payroll After All
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins announced no further payroll cuts. Then there was a bit of an obscure quote like "we aren't necessarily looking to increase payroll either". My question has always been: " Does that mean not lower than $130M, but also NOT LOWER than the payroll looked at the end of the season with the team coming back intact WITH arbitration dollars and raises calculated in"? Because that would mean at least $135M and maybe $140M. Based on some rumors out there, and this recent comment, it would appear they are content to keep a status quo of around $140M. And why not? It's loose change with an impending $1.5B + pending sale. And if said sale goes through as quickly as possibly reported, the Pohlad's won't be making those payments anyway. In regard to no moves, and any possible moves, there are still some possibilities available. I think we all knew no MAJOR moves were going to happen until new owners came in. It's been my belief for some time that the BIG EARNING teams would still flash some big contracts. That's happened. But things have slowed to a crawl as of late. A lot of teams, including in the ALC, have sat pretty still so far. I've stated I expect some value signings to be available in January and early February as guys are just looking for a deal. Right now, that seems rather likely. The rumor mill has stated there are teams interested in Paddack, but Falvey is looking for a decent return value, and not just a salary dump. Maybe he's looking for a decent LHRP or a solid RHOF? Not sure about moving Vazquez unless they eat some $, or sweeten the deal to move him. It's possible they keep either, or both. IF either are moved, there's still a couple solid LHRP with good splits on the market that are looking for a home. There's a couple decent RHOF that fill a need that don't stink against RHP still waiting a place to play. There's even a couple catchers in wouldn't mind bringing in cheap if Vazquez's contract could be moved, or mostly moved. I seriously doubt any major trades or signings will take place this offseason. But I don't think we expected any. But it's still possible to work the margins for a needle nudge for the 2025 roster. -
Unless I've missed something, I don't believe any invites have been made public yet in regard to ST. So my comments are a "wish list" for them to do so. I just think they need to give Eels and McCusker legitimate looks and not a couple games and sent across the road to the MILB complex kind of invites. Neither may make it. Both could. But they had good seasons...excellent in the case of Eeles...and may potentially help the club at some point in 2025. Eels will be 25yo this upcoming season...not exactly old...and McCusker will turn 27 near the end of May. I think each deserves something more than a cursory invite.
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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I am very high on the Twins system and their collection of young talent. I also believe pre-arbitration players who have just passed rookie status should be included when ranking a system. I mean, Lee and Festa are not far removed from rookie status. Is the #3 ranking by ML Pipeline accurate? Maybe. I believe they rank in the top 10 by most pundits and publications. But at the end of the day, what matters is the GOOD ONES who make the team better because some will be traded, and some/most will never turn out for EVERY team. Personally, I think the Twins have a collection of high talent prospects as well as good depth. I say that because I still include Lee and Festa as potentially very good players, if not starts. Jenkins and Rodriguez have star potential. And Keaschall might not be far off. Were I in charge of the Twins, I say yet again I'd have Eeles and McCusker both in ST for a LONG look. I have more faith in Eeles, but your scouting department found a pair of interesting players who MIGHT just turn out to be good players, Eeles as a starter or utility player, McCusker as a RH 5th OF/DH. PLEASE stop dismissing potential on hand that might be good FO! The old adage for pitchers is have 5 or 6 in order to find 2 good ones, or something like that. Well, in addition to what SWR did last season, and Festa really looking good after his first couple of mediocre starts, AAA has Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, Adams, and lefty Nowlin, who probably ends up in the pen. Culpepper isn't far behind. And while he's lower in level at the moment, if the brace procedure on Prielipp holds, look out! I think where some might argue against the Twins having depth is they're short at the AA level currently due to a number of factors. Not saying Wichita is devoid of talent and some potential...they aren't...but most of the top talent in the system is recently graduated, at St Paul, or in A ball. And speaking of A ball, Culpepper and DeAndrade just might be heir apparents to Correa, though I'm doubtful he moves off SS for at least 3 years. There are a handful of arms at A ball not named Prielipp that offer the potential to make serious jumps in 2025, and while the Latin signings in recent years have really only provided E Rodriguez as a top prospect, Olivar as a RH OF who MIGHT be able to play some catcher, the aforementioned DeAndrade, J Rodriguez, and Mercedes offer intrigue. Soto has a ways to go, but the kid is impressive as an individual, and has all the physical tools and pure stuff/potential you could ever spit out if you did a "Weird Science" experiment to build a starting pitcher. And I can't wait to see the debut of LHSP Dasan Hill in 2025. Winokur has room to develop of course. And I'm pretty sure he's not going to stick at SS much longer just based on size and physical development. But IMO he's one of the most intriguing prospects in the entire system. He could be anywhere from a washout athlete who never gets enough "control" of the zone to make it, to an All Star slugger who runs well and plays solid defense at 3B, or either corner OF spot, maybe CF if he doesn't grow too big and loses too much speed, to at WORST a major slugger at 1B who runs better, and is a better athlete than any typical 1B. Since we're primarily focusing on young/future talent, I'm going to be focusing a lot on the 2024 draft class. And I don't mean just Kaelen Culpepper and Billy Amick...both of whom might make jumps similar to Keaschall, or Kyle DeBarge, who didn't impress initially in SSS. Diaw is a catcher/outfielder who they should STICK at catcher as long as possible to see if he can handle the position. He's raw as can be, but has potential and is a much better athlete than you normally ever see in a backstop. It's my understanding that 4th round pick Ferrer was a pretty highly regarded catcher coming out of HS, who Florida State moved to the OF. I'm hoping the Twins move him back behind the plate to see what he can do. You DEVELOP CATCHERS. You don't often get to draft a Mauer type of player. A pair of 3B in Peyton Carr and Jay Thomason are of great interest. Carr is from a smaller school and had injury concerns, but performed well when healthy. And Thomason, an Air Force alum put up tremendous numbers that makes me wonder why he was available so late in the draft, despite not coming from a powerhouse conference. While the Twins drafted more position wise in 2024, grabbing some bats and athletes that might be "position questionable" there's some real potential if they put them in the right spot. Again, I'd be focusing on Diaw and Ferrer as potential catchers. Carr and Thomason might be potential steals at 3B. But they all only got a small taste of pro ball. What might they do in 2025 now that they are acclimated and have a full season to play? And, typically for recent drafts, the Twins didn't ignore arms despite Hill being the only early pitching pick. They still grabbed a lot of mid round selections. As of RIGHT NOW the 2023 pitching draft class hasn't looked as good as the 2022 class. And that's understandable as the 2022 class has exceeded expectations I'd say. But there's certainly potential there. But again, as has been typical in recent history, the 2024 draft selections of arms have barely thrown, if at all. So I'll be looking to see who steps forward in 2025. Not every draft class works out. But Sean Johnson and his staff have been on a good roll for several seasons now, even if the Latin signings haven't gained a lot of traction in recent seasons. (Why the Twins made changes there that might take a couple years to bear fruit). And I love to make long posts about things like "the system" because I think Johnson has put the system in good ordinance. And I always love to ramble, because i apparently have a lot to say. LOL. There's room to trade talent to fill spots. And I think that will happen. The Twins haven't ignored the catcher position, BUT post the drafting of Jeffers, they've either guessed wrong, developed wrong, or been unlucky with development. But the system and young talent looks pretty good to me. A few TOP talent prospects, depth in pitching looking good, and a good looking talent group at A ball, with a gap at the AA level, and a BUNCH of 2024 draft choices that are WILD CARDS I'll be following this next season to see how they do.
- 42 replies
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- walker jenkins
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Twins 2025 Arbitration Deals (or exchanged numbers)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
OK, time out here. I don't recall the exact numbers, but Berrios and the Twins weren't exactly miles apart as I recall. Berrios stated he wanted to go through the arbitration process for himself, but also to help set a precedent for future players. He was traded because the Twins wouldn't offer him an extension beyond a certain number, $ and years. He wasn't traded because he went through arbitration. Gordon went through arbitration and was traded for a LH Okert. The Twins wanted pitching help and it wasn't certain if Gordon was even going to make the roster or not. Neither player was a fixture for either team and both ended up being cut. Arraez was traded in a deal to bring in a front of the rotation SP in Lopez. Tell me where and how why the Twins did anything negative or vindictive for any of these 3 examples brought up? Secondly, the Twins have seldom ever actually GONE to arbitration with their players the past several seasons. Only 3 examples brought up here: a SP, a borderline ML utility player since DFA by his team, and a quality hitter traded for a front line SP. Many comments have been made in various articles over the years by FO personel and agents that the Falvey lead FO was held in high regard for being open and honest in their dealings. This includes super agent Boras who I can't recall ever saying a single negative thing about the current FO. Lastly, while the Ryan and Lewis numbers are a bit surprising, most of the numbers listed here are pretty close to projected estimates. ESTIMATES. And also, NONE of these players WENT through arbitration. They were all OFFERED arbitration. These were numbers agreed to between the Twins and the players and their agents. Ryan or Lewis and their agents thought the deals were unfair and wrong? They could have GONE to arbitration and argued a case. They didn't. Is anger and frustration for the Pohlad's and their budget and the handcuffing of the FO so tremendous that we have to invent anger and angst toward the FO that we have to invent new theories of underhanded dealings? Ryan and Lewis can easily earn a couple $100K back, plus, with good, healthy seasons. Both may be in line for extensions with a new ownership on hand. MILLIONS easily make up a couple hundred K really easily. This was NOT arbitration. These were all agreements made between the FO and the players and their reps INSTEAD of going to arbitration. -
Just want to say that since I'm out of the normal market parameters, I'm able to watch the games on the ML package. While I have respect for defensive metrics, there's such a variance between who rates what in so many different ways, that I take it all with a grain of salt. Buxton's speed appears to be largely intact. What I saw in 2024 was, mostly, the same old fleet of foot, good tracking Buxton with a great arm. But what i also saw, at times, was a veteran player who has learned that risking his body the way he used to doesn't benefit the team as much as staying healthy. He still made some amazing plays! But he might be playing a couple steps deeper these days, and letting an occasional hit fall in order to keep himself in the lineup, etc. His knee isn't going to be perfect, but it appears to be "fixed" as well as it can be. I say again, if his hip is OK...a source of issues in the past while compensating for his knee...it's possible he's good for 120 games or so. I hope that's true. He makes a difference at the plate, but also in the field, even if he's less prone to abuse his body for tremendous plays as he did when younger. I don't care what defensive metrics say. I watched him in 2024 and he was still damn good in CF.
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5 Minnesota Twins Prospect Storylines to Follow in 2025
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Yes, Keaschall could fill the 2B spot, and probably fill it well. However, Lewis and Lee might just fill 2B and 3B right out of the gate. Keaschall might end up as a super athletic 1B. Nothing wrong with that. Or maybe he replaces Castro as the Super Utility player on the roster. Maybe Eeles takes over 2B and Lewis moves to 1B, or Lee becomes a Super Utility INF and Lewis sticks at 3B and Keaschall is at 1B? Miranda is a DH/1B/3B option? Sooo many possibilities to fill up the INF, with Keaschall and Eeles also backup OF possibilities. (I haven't even mentioned Julien getting himself right again). Now, health and actual production have to be considered. And trades may happen. But isn't it exciting to look at the INF and all the possibilities for 2024 and beyond?- 31 replies
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- walker jenkins
- cj culpepper
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5 Minnesota Twins Prospect Storylines to Follow in 2025
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Just a sticking point first, Miranda didn't have a bad season really. He was really, really good until he hurt his back. I could easily get carried away with who I'm excited about or watching, but will TRY to keep it brief. No more injuries has Rodriguez with the Twins by mid season, IMO. Just a SUPER talented player! I do expect a few growing pains, however, as he needs to strike a better balance between being properly aggressive and being overly passive looking for BB. AAA and ML pitchers are going to have better control than he's seen so far. Jenkins hopefully raking at AA and at least finishing the season at St Paul, if not being their by mid season, has got to be one of the more exciting players to watch. I'm also high on Eeles as what he did in 2024 was so good it's hard to believe he was a 1 year wonder. Future starter or really nice utility player is yet to be determined. I'm not as high on McCusker, but the guy has shown a steady rise and steady improvement. Might he be a RH corner OF/DH as a late bloomer? ASSUMING Paddack is moved...and he might not be...Festa is in the rotation. If Paddack ISN'T moved, one of Festa or SWR is in AAA. But let's say the Sheriff is gone. St Paul has Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, Adams and Nowlin all as rotation options. (I think Nowlin still ends up in the pen at some point). And what if the Twins make a deal with the Phillies to keep Castellano instead of keeping him stashed on the roster? That's 6-7 rotation arms not including guys like Headrick or Ynoa as fill ins. Or Culpepper ready to move up to AAA at some point. Whether it's now, or the deadline, or even next offseason, the Twins are going to be able to/have to move a couple arms in a deal for someone. Maybe a young catcher? Speaking of pitching, I'm SUPER EXCITED to see what a healthy Prielipp does in 2025! Breakout pitchers not already mentioned? Kyle Jones might be the best bet after being slowed a bit in 2024. But I'd keep an eye out for Christian Macleod, Tanner Hall, and Ty Langenberg. Looking lower in the system, I'm going to be watching Soto closely. What kind of a step does he take this upcoming season? VERY excited to see the debut of Dasan Hill. On the player side, is DeAndrade healthy and ready to go? He missed the AFL, but he could be in AA fairly quickly if his upward trend continues. And young OF Jose Rodriguez and Yasser Mercedes have exciting potential. Rodriguez had a poor 2024, can he take a step forward? Mercedes flashed. Is he ready for Cedar Rapids? And I can't fail to mention Winokur. He's one of the most intriguing players in the entire system. And i agree he's probably 3yrs away, but his combination of power, good speed, and surprising athleticism for such a tall/long prospect is crazy. As of today, he's a possible CF option. He might end up at 3B or a corner OF spot eventually just due to his body filling out. At WORST, he could be an athletic, powerful 1B who can move and run far better than any typical 1B. I'm leaving out a few guys of course, but that's more or less the key guys I'm looking at. There's a good 4 or 5 guys from the 2024 draft who have barely played so far that I'm not even mentioning that could jump up really quickly.- 31 replies
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- walker jenkins
- cj culpepper
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Only comment I'm going to make at this time is that that the Pohlad's made an announcement they had put the Twins franchise up for sale. Based on the potential expediance of a potential sale, I'd have to believe there were boardroom conversations before said public announcements were made. The hope is an ownership that will love baseball and the Twins and will invest in the team and the fandom to grow the franchise in a competitive nature and make it something we can all rally around and support. I think any negative thoughts about what Falvey has done and built or not done due to financial considerations should be shelved until any new owners are ACTUALLY in place.
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I'm with you 100% on Eeles. I GET that he's a bit of a flier from the Independent leagues and has ONE season in the Twins system. And it might just be ONE single season, magical ride and a good story for an underdog who got a chance. BUT, we're talking about a kid who RAKED in college at a lower level, and then RAKED as a 5th year senior at a well respected program. I think it's obvious his physical stature and a single season at a top program kept him from being drafted. Kudos to the Twins scouting department for finding him in the first place. ONE season probably should keep him out of the top prospect listings. I get that. But IMO you just DON'T ignore what's right in front of you in regard to a prospect. And it's my one major complaint with our FO, placing too much emphasis on ML Veteran status and accepting poor production vs giving a younger player, maybe a late bloomer or surprise player, a real shot. Were I in charge, I'd have BOTH Eeles and McCusker in ST as non roster invites as more than a cursory invite. I want to see if McCusker MIGHT be a late blooming bat that might help in the future. I have my doubts, but he's done well, grown, and done well. Is it at all possible he might be a ML player? But good story or not, Eeles wasn't just good, he was DOMINATE at every level, including AAA. He might be short, but he isn't small. He's got some speed, some life in his bat, a good eye. And he's reportedly a hard worker. I understand "show me twice" considering being undrafted. But the FO is just wrong if they don't give him a good look in ST.
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- griffin jax
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What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't disagree with your sentiment. But the problem wasn't just injuries...though that played a part...and it wasn't regression of Julien or the adjustments/injury that held Lee down...that also played a part...it was a lack of offensive consistency that was a major issue. The Twins were in the top 10 in total run production...maybe 4th or 5th??...but it was the up and down inconsistency that held them back. They'd score 7 runs each game in a series followed by 1-3 per game the next series. A quality opponent and a good SP can make you look bad of course. But too many poor series, and too many wasted opportunities with runners on base and in scoring position and sometimes we couldn't even get a decent fly ball to score a runner from 3rd with less than 2 out was maddening at times. If you read between the lines from comments made here and there, it felt like there was a disconnect between the "game plan" that was laid out and what the players did or didn't do. I think the talent and ability to hit, get on base, hit doubles, hit HR, score runs, is there. You don't finish near the top in runs scored and NOT have that ability. I don't know if it's better planning, better communication, or something as simple and old fashioned as "choking up on the bat with 2 strikes" that has been the issue. But if the new coaches can just "unlock" a better approach in situational hitting, then greater consistency should hopefully come. I've just seen way too many well pitched games turn in to losses due to a lack of clutch hitting the past couple of years.- 94 replies
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- derek falvey
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Granted the primary issue is just keeping his stuff out of the middle where it can be pounded. Even if he does that, like all pitchers, he's going to offer up a mistake or two. It just happens. But what I always saw when watching his games, or reading the box scores the next day if I didn't, his runs usually came in bunches, usually in the same inning, and often after he pitched 2 or 3 or even 4 successful innings. I'm not sure what the answer to my observation is, other than I think perhaps his stuff just got timed and perhaps better "recognized" after going through the lineup once. I can see him being a very effective 1-2 inning reliever with high K totals. He keeps the HR numbers down, he might even fit as a setup man. I think he's probably one of the Twins best 8 pen arms. It's a little disappointing/unsettling that he'll probably begin the season in St Paul in order to keep as many arms as possible as some guys don't have options any longer.
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Really liked what I saw of Festa. A little strange to me all the applause SWR has received for a quality 2024 that saves the rotation, but the even more talented Festa always seems to have a question mark attached to him. Because of his first couple of starts not going so well? If his control doesn't go bonkers, I think he surpasses SWR for the #4 spot, especially if his curveball can be at least a decent offering. Gives the batter something else to think about. I'm not sure what Lee's ceiling is. But I know the glove is there and he does seem to have the baseball instinct gene. Do we make a big deal out of a rookie struggling while dealing with a bum shoulder? Or do we focus more on the college and MILB numbers that all show a really good hitter? On the floor side of things, I see Lee being a consistent .270-ish hitter with a solid .340-ish OB% while being a consistent 30+ doubles and mid teens HR producer, all with a good glove. I'd take that. That's a really good ballplayer. He hits better than that, with an even better OB%, and even just a little more power, he's a borderline star player. Agree with @tony&rodneythat Eeles is being overlooked somewhat. Not by everyone. And with only a single season on the organization, I wouldn't put him on this list either. But if he's not in ST getting a long look for 2025 and the future after what he did last season, someone is being very short-sighted.
- 52 replies
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- griffin jax
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It's pretty rare to draft a 1B in the 1st round of the draft unless said 1B is pretty special. Well, if you look at what Sabato did in his first two seasons at North Carolina, optimism was warranted for a bat first, 27th selection. He hit, he got on base, and he flashed great power potential. Unfortunately, his sophomore season was cut short, and the reality is there wasn't enough information, apparently, to tell the Twins there was a hole in his potential. I didn't like the pick when it was made, but at least there was logic in the potential he offered. IIRC I wasn't crazy about Soularie as he seemed more athlete than ballplayer. But in a short draft and a lack of information to work with, I guess drafting athletic potential wasn't a horrible choice. But it sure didn't turn out well. Raya was easily my favorite selection. He wasn't the biggest guy in the world, but he had some good stuff for his age and seemed to have a competitive fire in him. Rosario has been promoted pretty aggressively, and being his league MVP following the 2023 shows his potential. He's probably more DH than OF, but he's reportedly got a strong arm. Hopefully he can polish his OF skills enough to play there. But a powerful DH isn't a bad thing either. Not a good draft for the Twins. Raya remains the one bright hope. But with only 4 picks in 5 rounds and limited scouting and performance to draw from, getting even a single difference maker could mark the draft as relatively successful.
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- aaron sabato
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Personally, I'd like to keep Paddack for the same reasons I think he's valuable to other teams. He's under 30yo, not overly expensive in the least, he's further removed from his surgery so the hope is for greater consistency in his velocity, and if his feel for his change comes back, he's potentially as good as a #3. I'd rather open with him, have Festa and SWR battle for the final spot, and the other begins the season at St Paul as Ober did in 2023. Fair? No. But the depth for the entire system just got better. All that being said, he's the most logical trade candidate to free up $ to add SOMETHING to the roster. Word has it he could be moved at any time, but Falvey wants more than a salary dump and is holding out for a decent return. My guess would be Paddack and a lower level prospect for a cost controlled 4th OF or possible, controlled LH pen arm.
- 68 replies
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- chris martin
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Two comments have been publicly made. 1] The Twins stated they were not looking to cut payroll any further. 2] They also stated they weren't expecting to add to payroll. The gray area is the fact they've never stated $130M or the proposed end of 2024 season and expected cost of bringing the team back as is, which pretty much puts the expected payroll of $134-140M. Since, to my recollection, and actual, firm $ amount has yet to be stated, conjecture varies with $130M being the starting point based on the 2024 opening day number.
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- chris martin
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What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Am I content? No way. I wanted to be the team to sign Goldschmidt for 1yr and $13-14M hoping for that one more good year in the sun. Another $8-9M ish on a proven LHRP and RHOF with good career splits. (No more platoon specialists). The $ wouldn't have been outlandish. And it sure would be nice for the outgoing ownership to spend a little as a "going away present" when they are poised for a $1.5B + payday in the future. But am I desperate or despondent? No. The collapse late last season, IMO, often clouds an honest view of the team as currently constructed. Yes, health is an issue. This is a different team with Lewis and Correa healthy for the season. Could throw Miranda in there as well considering how good he's looked when healthy. Buxton? You take what you can get, which is hopefully 100 plus games. There are questions. There's also talent, and more talent on the way. I like the rotation, I'm encouraged by the depth, and I feel the same about the pen. Better health...and they're due...and just more overall consistency from the bats can make this offense pretty darn good. Do they win 82 or 92? I don't know. But there's real talent on this club. How healthy that talent is over a full season and how well the younger guys step up will make the difference.- 94 replies
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- derek falvey
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Not saying he's a lost cause and shouldn't be looked at. But he hasn't hit or shown much if a bat at all in 2yrs except for a little power flash. And while I don't know about his defense overall, his CS% had fallen off a cliff to 20% or less at the same time. I wouldn't spend much to get him. But if the scouting department loves him, than a low A or rookie level prospect would be OK.
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- jair camargo
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This is exactly what I saw last season. I saw a player that didn't know who and what he was. I'm not picking on anyone, but I never understood so many posters proclaiming the idea that Martin was ready for regular ML playing time after a good AFL and barely a half season of good production at the AAA level in 2023. There was a reason the Twins were trying to alter his swing and approach to add a little more power to his game. It wasn't about being a HR hitter. It was about being able to hit the ball HARD for singles, doubles, and yes, SOME HR power. I'm confounded by reports that if he didn't stick to the INF, he was a "natural" OF. Except for a couple good plays, i saw a poor OF who couldn't read the ball off the bat. As a 2B, I saw a mix of a couple good plays, some really bad ones, and was average at best The graphics and explanations tell me he CAN see the zone and make solid contact. But he's got to find an ability to DRIVE the ball better, or he's just not going to make it. Defense isn't just athleticism. It's recognition of the ball off the bat. If he can learn that, he's got a future as a utility player defensively. If he can't he's a 2B only who has a TON of talent that will quickly burry him unless his bat suddenly exploded. I'm hoping his defense improves big time through hard work. I'm hoping his approach and confidence takes another step forward and he starts to drive the ball and make things happen. I understand his development has been a bit unusual. But at some point, his natural ability SHOULD take hold and start to show through. And a disappointing rookie season shouldn't be held against him. But he's just got to show SOMETHING in 2025 to prove his draft status, and brief AFL and half season in AAA in 2023 wasn't an illusion.
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So I'm the kind of "idiot" fan that LOVES recruiting season, spring ball, the NFL draft and preseason, spring training and the MILB season, and even the MLB draft. I'm the guy who scribbles depth charts and lineups for my teams. Yes...I have a sickness. LOL. So this kind of talk is something I love and live for, even while the Vikings are enjoying a WONDERFUL season! I actually made a rather long "docbauer" post months ago concerning 2025. So here goes nothing! Lol. I don't want to make this about Darnold, but I must to some degree. After watching the post Packers win locker room scene from the team, I'm really starting to wonder if Darnold isn't "the choice" for the entirety of the team. No slight to the potential of McCarthy. Darnold is the elephant in the room in regard to the immediate future of the club. Without him, the Vikings have a TON of $ to spend on FA and the resigning of current Vikings, and a staff and system that would probably turn McCarthy in to a very good NFL QB. WITH Darnold, they still have $ to spend on FA, and resigns, but it shrinks quite a bit. They might franchise Darnold and keep McCarthy for a year, or hitch their wagon to Darnold and move McCarthy for picks. VERDICT...to be determined. Now, simply getting that out of the way, as good and deep and talented as this team is, I can see room to make additions and changes for 2025 and beyond. It would be great to just bring back the current team as is and make a few additions. Problem is, the team has a lot of good players on expiring deals. And that kind of goes back to the whole Darnold speculation/debate. I see a 2 year plan with an as of yet undetermined amount of $ to spend...Darnold again...and a limited 2025 draft choice situation. NEEDS: CB: Resign Murphy. Then sign the best CB you can to team with him and the retuning Blackmon. But you also need to draft or sign ONE MORE CB to really establish depth. It could be via the draft, or another FA, or it might be as simple as keeping Gilmore for one more year. Griffen wouldn't be a bad alternative. SAFETY: At some point, Smith is going to hang it up. I'm not convinced he's done after this season. Either way, they need to keep Bynum and add a safety in one of the next 2 drafts for depth and potential. OLB: What an embarrassment of riches. I'd love to resign Jones, but it might not be possible. But there's enough here to absorb his loss. ILB: Just keeping what they have is perfectly fine. DL: They need at least ONE DL to take this unit to another level. Is that through FA or the draft? It could be a NT to let Phillips slide outside, or an outside guy and keep Phillips inside still. I'd probably resign Bullard, and make that ONE add. Redmond looks like an exciting keeper, and LDR and Taimani look like potential steals as depth pieces. WR: There's really no need here. The depth is so good there's practice squad players that would be on the roster for many teams. TE: Bring back Mundt and we're set. But I still like the potential of Muse. RB: At some point, we need a RB of the future. Recent history has shown you don't have to select one in the 1st round to get a good one. I'm betting Jones comes back, and I really like Akers as a backup, but they need a young back soon. OL: I actually think Risner's run blocking this season has been as good, or better, than his pass blocking. He's good, loved by fans and teammates. Bradburry is OK, but certainly not great, and has one more year on his current deal. They need a STUD at EITHER G or C to take the OL to another level. I think I'd keep Risner, work he and Brandel at both G spots next preseason to find the best fit, and draft a top center to be Bradburry's replacement. NEEDS OVER 2025 AND 2026 FA AND DRAFTS; IOL DL CB× 2 RB S IF they can keep most of the current roster intact as is...and that's not necessarily easy...that's what's needed to keep things going. I'd love to speculate on what to do with the limited picks we have in 2025, but how can we until we have clarication on the whole Darnold/McCarthy situation?

