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Everything posted by DocBauer
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The biggest question is do the POWERS THAT BE want to tear the whole damn thing down? (Which also doesn't always work). Or do they want to field a solid, possibly competitive team in 2026? While the pitching hasn't wholly stepped up the this season, or late in 2024, it's been the offense that has been the biggest issue. But Wallner and Lewis aren't throw away players. Buxton is great. Jeffers is on of the best offensive backstops in the game. Keaschall has arrived. Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper are so very close. And there are a handful of other position players that are really close to providing help as well. IF the Twins want to field a competent team for 2026, they will STOP the teardown and keep Lopez and Ryan. And I'll repeat yet again, if Larnach is moved, the payroll sits around $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan and arbitration numbers accounted for. I just don't buy in to moving Lopez and Ryan because it's silly to have front line, playoff caliber starters for a team not expected to compete for anything. We'll, yeah, if you trade away your best 2 SP, OF COURSE you won't compete for anything. Both are still controlled through 2027. And YES, the pen needs to be re-built. But you've accumulated so many good young arms, you don't think you can use them? With a payroll of $90M you couldn't add even a couple relievers to help with that re-build? And are you telling me that you DON'T believe in Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper??? IMO, Ryan should be an extension candidate rather than a trade option. Or, again, do you not believe in all of your pitching depth and the position players you have on hand, and prospects you have developed that are appearing or about to do so??? Sorry, but that was a reality check to the FO and ownership who are a complete mixed up mystery at this point. Might have just as well spit in the wind, but needed to state what I think is obvious. Ober is susceptible to injuries here and there because of being 6' 9". It's what slowed him somewhat in his early days, but the Twins corrected his mechanics and he became the very good SP that we know. He's looked better after his rest. And he stated all along his mechanics got messed up at some point. Might have lead to his hip issue. Could just be wear and tear that happens once in a while. But Lopez, Ryan, and Ober is a hell of a good 1-3 for 2026. After them, IMO comes Mathews as a virtual lock. The pure stuff and control is just too good to ignore. Other than game experience, what he needs is better "command" of his pitches. That means sneaking out of the zone more for whiffs, and to set up batters. The 5th spot is up for grabs between SWR, Abel, and Bradley. That's 7 deep. But let's not forget about Morris as the probable 8th arm. I think Rojas is only ready mid 2026. The recently promoted to AAA Klein shouldn't be ignored even though he's been largely left out of conversation. But he's also probably a mid season option. And what is the future of Raya? The kid gloves have come off the past couple of months and he's been throwing more pitches/innings and while as consistent as we'd like to see, he's thrown some of the best games of his career the past month or so. And what about Prielipp? Is he the biggest dark horse for the Twins rotation in 2026? Honestly, he's still "learning how to pitch" considering his lack of experience. I'd bet the Twins are going to tweak his repertoire with a 4th pitch soon, though I'm not sure what. Ready July 1st as a SP option next season? I believe ALL of these guys are 25yo or younger at this point. Notice I haven't included Festa, or Lewis, or CJ Culpepper? Nor have I mentioned LH Christian MacLeod. I WANT Festa to be a ML SP because it's a great story and I just love seeing "Thin Reaper" put away guys! But there's always been concerns about durability. He's been REALLY GOOD though an order the 1st time. Not uncommon for a young pitcher. The 2 seamer he's been working on is for RH batters as that's maybe been his biggest issue so far. MAYBE he continues to work on that, or maybe the Twins help him with a sweeper, cutter, splitter instead and convert him to the pen for 2026. The shoulder issues he's dealt with tells me he should pitch 1 inning 3 times a week instead of being a starter. His max velocity should jump to 98-99 ish with a good slider and change. Lewis was the Twins MILB pitcher of the year in 2023, IIRC. In 2024 he had an injury setback and it took some time to get his velocity back. He's had a tough 1st full year at AAA as they've also adjusted his mix, and tried to put his crazy good knuckleball more to the forefront. But maybe they need to put him in the pen for max velocity...probably mid 90's...maybe add a pitch...I'm spitballing a bit here as I can't recall his current repertoire...and use that crazy mid 80's knuckleball on 0-2, 1-2, even 2-2 counts and suddenly be an effective weapon out of the pen in the middle innings. Like Lewis, CJ Culpepper has shown great potential that has been interrupted by mild injury. He has a funky, short arm delivery. He has, I believe, 6 pitches he throws. Control isn't much of an issue. But from what I understand, all of his pitches are solid, but none or great. And his velocity tends to dip after a few innings. Again, what I've heard and read. None of that doesn't preclude him from being a potential ML SP at some point. But maybe he's Jax-like that he can crank up his velocity and throw a grouping of solid secondary offerings to befuddle hitters. MacLeod has slowly moved up the system as a LHSP who needed surgery after the Twins selected him #5 in the 2021 draft. Other than 1.2 IP in 2021, he didnt throw again until 2023. His MILB K numbers sit around 10 per. His WHIP is around 1.4, not bad. I've heard reports his FB sits around 94mph. He's just recently been promoted to AAA after an OK season at AA. But he's got to be about 12th-14th on the pecking order currently for ML help in 2026. So maybe an immediate conversion to the pen makes him a possible pen piece in 2026 at some point rather than falling behind other SP options ahead of him? The 2026 rotation and depth is just fine if ownership doesn't just blow the whole thing up. IF there is ANY faith on the players on hand...Lewis, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers, Wallner...and the prospects ready or nearly ready in regard to Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins, K Culpepper, GG, and maybe even Fedko and Olivar and Rosario not far behind, then the GOAL should be to adapt and use all of the talented arms you have, plus maybe a couple decent FA options to build a decent bullpen and look to the future while still having a potentially solid, competitive 2026 team that will still be building up for better things going forward. Remember "consistently competitive"? They CAN do that in 2026? There is a path to do so that doesn't require a HUGE increase in payroll. DOES the FO actually trust in the talent on hand, and most of their TOP PROSPECTS ready or nearly ready to create an exciting future? Or do they want to tear it all down and be the Dirty Sox, A's, and the Royals for YEARS and just try to sell hope for the future? Personally, I can see a hopeful path that starts by keeping the rotation in tact, with just a couple adds, moving arms around, and STILL keeping the payroll low. That's my opinion and rant.
- 27 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
- (and 5 more)
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*ADENDUM to any of my previous posts on this OP. If Larnach is indeed moved, as many/most of us expect, the payroll then sits around $90M WITH Lopez, Ryan, and expected arbitration numbers. Instead of just ASSUMING/HOPING Rodriguez is healthy and ready to go and debut at some point, if not immediately. And generally ASSUMING everyone else will also be healthy the majority of the year and play and debut as expected at some point...May-June-July 1st, whatever...there is still an opportunity to add a solid, veteran such as Josh Naylor to play 1B and DH and provide a quality veteran bat and presence to the lineup and club. He and a decent veteran backstop should cost approximately $18M. Not including a couple pen arms, maybe on the rebound, the total payroll would still be under $120M. Obviously, a couple decent veteran arms bumps that number somewhat. But a SINGLE solid veteran BAT doesn't create any sort of major payroll change. But it only makes sense if they want to put a competitive team on the field.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Not entirely sure if you are asking a serious question here or just having a little fun. (Haven't had time yet to read every post). But Clemens has probably earned the right to be on the 40 man going in to next season. Even if doesn't improve a lick, but can basically just repeat what he's done with the Twins this season, he could be a solid bench player at 4 spots. That shouldn't be dismissed. He has played some 3B in college, MILB, and 20 some games at the ML level. No clue how well, or poorly, he plays the spot. But it might be worth giving him some run there next ST to see if he can help at a 5th spot once in a while. As a bonus, he has one of his father's gloves and can "replace" Castro as the "emergency" pitcher if needed. LOL. *I'm only half kidding as he's done it before.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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A nice post, though I'm willing to give Keaschall the benefit of the doubt at 2B for a while. He's missed a lot of time in the field in '24 and this season while recovering from his TJ and then that broken forearm. IF Rodriguez is healthy, I'm still inclined to just give him a job and let him bat lower in the lineup and feel his way. But I agree on who plays what spot between he and Jenkins? But I believe Rodriguez is a little faster, so I'd probably put in LF because there's more ground to cover. Initially, I thought Lee to 3B and Culpepper at SS. But Lee has been looking pretty solid at SS since he's been there full time. So maybe Culpepper at 3B...again, Lewis at 1B in my scenario...and if Houston can follow with a decent bat over the next couple of years, his superior defense then replaces a solid, not great, Lee at SS? In the long run, I thing GG will have the better overall BAT than Fedko. But IMO, the older Fedko is still having the better season overall, and is knocking harder on the door for 2026 as the 4th OF.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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That's the OF I've been dreaming of for a couple years now. And it can be for real if Rodriguez can finally get on the "wellness good luck" wagon for a change. Jeffers has been in the top 5 OPS producers at catcher for the past 4-5 seasons. We have control of him through 2027, he's not going to be very expensive, and nobody is going to be ready from the system for another 2yrs. So I think he stays. How do you construct the best INF with Lewis, Lee, Kendall, and Culpepper? You put Lewis at 1B, Keaschall stays at 2B, What I'm not sure is if the left side is better with Lee at SS...at least until Houston potentially arrives...and Culpepper at 3B, or Culpepper at SS and Lee at 3B. Plenty of time later to be gloomy and pessimistic, but this lineup could be a really good one.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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I'm only mildly surprised Jenkins is up at this point as I thought AA still had another week or two to play? I thought he'd be up after that. No biggie. This just provides him additional time to see a new, higher level, and get a jump on 2026. I believe the power is THERE and will come out naturally the more he plays. I think the kid is going to be very good. But I also feel maturation for even a potential STUD of a ballplayer as he might be follows a natural course. And while I've stated I like the way the Brewers aren't afraid to take some chances on top prospects to learn on the fly and just live with some early struggles, I'm far more concerned with Jenkins growth and reaching his potential than some target ideal of him being on the opening day roster next season. His career doesn't hinge on being a Twin opening day vs debuting July 1st for example. In regard to other players mentioned, I'm still a big believer in Wallner. This season has really been messed for a lot of players, not just him. He's previously shown he can hit decently, carry a good OB%, and has a career .800 OPS, with tons of power. I'm more inclined to just give Rodriguez LF to begin 2026 than I am Jenkins because he's also super talented, has more time at AAA already, and has flashed between injury stints. Nothing against Roden, who hasn't proven anything yet in a SSS despite really solid MILB production, but the enigma that Rodriguez is has SO MUCH upside that if he could FINALLY stay healthy for a stretch, I'd give him LF and just say: "go get 'em kid! You're going to get a long rope. Just go do what you can do, because we know it's a LOT". Roden has a chance to be a good, solid complimentary ballplayer at multiple spots, providing solid defense, a little speed, a little pop, and to be a decent hitter. I don't think 136 ML AB should determine his future at all. I'm OUT on Outman because I just don't expect a sudden "fix" for him to suddenly recapute his 2023 season. I'm also OUT on Martin. With apologies to Martin fans...and I was HOPEFUL...he doesn't hit enough and doesn't play defense well enough anywhere to be a viable ML player. He's an athlete, not a baseball player. I'm IN on 25yo Kyler Fedko being a potential option as a 4th OF, RH bat who has always had a good OB%, provides defense and speed and some pop/power potential. He absolutely deserves a solid looksee. And he's actually younger than Martin. UNFORTUNATELY, the STILL Falvey lead FO is stubborn as hell to the point of paranoia in regards to depth. And I'd bet $ they will continue to hope Martin SUDDENLY turns it around to recoup past trade value. And they'll probably give Roden the primary LF job NO MATTER health and production from Rodriguez in ST. All in the name of depth and "no risk". Money says Outman takes the Keirsey job of seldom used 13th man to PR and late inning defensive substitution. Why? Because we traded for him and we need DEPTH. I honestly know NOTHING about Zoll except for some things in his bio and reports that he's been a "silent partner" in the FO previously in trades and contract negotiations. But now that he's been promoted to the actual GM chair, does he have any TEETH in making decisions? IF he really and truly IS the GM and Falvey is accepting his role as the MAN IN CHARGE of operations and business and keeps his fingers OUT of daily operations, Zoll may have a chance to put his own fingerprints on the roster. I have ZERO problems with quality prospects getting additional MILB time to honestly work on aspects of their game. It's only smart to do so. For their future, as well as the team. But in today's game, and being a mid market team or NOT, when talent is on your DOORSTEP, GIVE those guys an opportunity. That's Fedko soon...who you drafted....and Rodriguez...who you signed...and Jenkins, who you drafted.
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As I stated in a Forums article recently, I so very, very much want Festa to be a quality SP for the Twins. Not only is it a great story/accomplishment to find a late round arm and turn them in to something good...such as Ober and Varland...but the good velocity and solid stuff coming from all those lone arms and legs is just fun to watch. But as we saw with Duran, some arms/bodies just aren't built for 80+ pitches every 5 days. I agree with you, Greg, that Festa is still young and still developing. His struggles the 2nd time through and lineup currently, and his dual shoulder issues this season don't dismiss him as a rotation candidate. BUT, like Duran, maybe he's just built to throw 15-20 pitches 3 times a week in 1 IP situations. That just might be his future. I would offer some pushback on Festa's change as I think it is really good, but lacks consistency. His 2 seamer was added to make him more effective against RH bats. I think it stays, or they replace it with something else, but I think he might need a 4th pitch to achieve greater success, even in the pen. But the Twins need to look at more than a few arms and decide where they fit best "Hey kid, we're not sure you're cut out to be a ML SP. And instead of being 8th or 9th in line for a promotion, why not ascend more rapidly to MLB as a reliever for more $ and all the other benefits and future $ you could earn?" A quick addition if I might? I've been wondering about the pen and all the arms ready, or close to being ready at great length in my head. I still like the idea of Prielipp being groomed as a SP. I'd still like a 4th pitch to offset his good stuff. But considering he's still learning how to "pitch", and the recent additions of some other promising LH arms over the past 2 seasons, I can see a path for Prielipp to move to the pen. I also believe CJ Culpepper might be a very good RP with his large arsenal of pitches, but also a couple injuries, and reports his velocity doesn't always maintain. I've also wondered about Lewis making the transition. IIRC he was the MILB pitcher of the year a couple seasons ago. Then his 2024 was limited due to injury setback. His current 2025 has been a bit of a nightmare filled with horrible appearances mixed in with some solid ones. Not only has he been adjusting to AAA, but his pitch mix has been tinkered with greatly. So overall results might not really matter. But if he could go max velocity for an inning...or two...and toss in that CRAZY knuckleball, he might find real success as a pen option. Just me thinking a little beyond Festa alone.
- 24 replies
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- david festa
- griffin jax
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I don't want to hijack the thread, but is Larnaxh is moved...in whatever kind of deal...and I believe he will be...the payroll should be about $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan still on board and with projected arbitration numbers factored in. With $400 and possibly $500M coming in via the new minority owners, the $400+M debt is gone, or paid down significantly. (Maybe they keep a little debt on the books for tax purposes???). They have the ability to add a couple inexpensive arms to the pen for depth. Maybe guys on 1yr deals looking for rebound season? And you're still under $100M. No clue if the debt elimination and some non-Pohlads now involved will push the payroll back up to a still very manageable $130 repeat of 2025, but if it happens, suddenly you have room to add a 1B or DH for the lineup...maybe BOTH...and you can still be at this season's payroll, or less. I think you're on the right path. Just wanted to add a little.
- 24 replies
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- david festa
- griffin jax
- (and 4 more)
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This is not some crazy, WAY TOO EARLY, BLOW SMOKE pre-offaeason prediction opinion. Nor am I intending to be self-indulgent in any way. But A] wheels have been turning in .y head BEFORE the deadline craziness, B] the same wheels have been in overdrive SINCE that day, C] I've had a few different individuals that have asked me questions about 2026 and my opinion. The OP I'm referencing, of course, was on the front page recently. In a nutshell, it stated the Twins were closer to competing in 2026 than most/many believe. ALL they have to do is not trade any rotation pieces and fix the bullpen. And that's pretty much all that was said. And I was in a bad mood that day and got a little snarky, I'll admit, with my initial response. I don't have a TD Blog at this time, and ai didn't want to respond a half dozen times or more to the questions posed to me, and I didn't want to offer up an 8 paragraph response....which I'm known to do at times. LOL. So as a result, this is MY way to respond to all those that have asked for my opinion, and a way to hopefully slow the wheels in my overactive brain, and nothing more. Read on or not, your choice. It's going to be long winded. 😁 [and I'm going to rank a little] PAYROLL, AND STEP #1: With current players rostered, expected arbitration numbers, and a large collection of inexpensive players making minimum, or not much above, the payroll should be sitting about $90M with Larnach removed. The roster needs a shakeup and a few handful of desperately needed changes. (I'm not directly involving myself in the manager, the coaches, or the FO at this moment). I don't dislike Larnach. But he's the 1st change I have taking place. I don't know if he brings back MILB prospects only, or if he can be packaged with someone else to maybe bring back someone's #3 or #4 pen arm, but I believe there are teams in need of a LH DH/OF with a career .765 OPS against RHP. The changes now begin, and the payroll begins at $90M #2] ROTATION: KEEP Lopez and Ryan. (And Ober for that matter). Their salaries are already worked in to the $90M and all have control through 2027, so they still have trade value later if a move is warranted. But quality SP is the toughest thing to find. With that being said, based on pitchers currently rostered, who have been at AAA all/most of 2025, and AA arms who have been recently promoted, or have been fixtures in prospect profiles, you have the following list of options for the rotation, where from DAY ONE, or June/July 1st additions and depth: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, CJ Culpepper, Klein, MacLeod, and you MIGHT include newly acquired Rojas on the list as well, despite inexperience. That's 15 and maybe 16 arms for the 2026 rotation and AAA depth, even if some have had rough seasons, or might not be ready until mid summer-ish. That also takes us to.... 3] BULLPEN: There's just NO WAY to re-build the pen overnight. And NO WAY, the FO would have the resources to throw $M's of $ to do so. (It also doesn't always work that way for teams have tried either). But there are enough good/interesting arms from the SP options to make some interesting moves here. A] As an organization, you sit down and examine who you really and truly believe are arms that you think are rotation bound. As close to 100% as you can realistically believe/hope. And you go from there. B] You then decide who might be better in the pen vs being 9th-10th-11th, etc, in line for a ML SP slot. EXAMPLE: While I SO WANT Festa to harness all his stuff as a quality ML SP, maybe he's just not built to do so? Are the pair of shoulder fatigue issues he's had this season an aberration? Or is he just better off as a setup and potential closer arm? (Similar to Duran). EXAMPLE #2: CJ Culpepper has performed very well when healthy and has been a consistent top "teen" prospect in the system. But he's also had a couple minor injury setbacks recently. There have also been reports of decreasing velocity as the game goes on. He's also got a repertoire of 5-6 solid, effective pitches, but questions remain if any of them can be considered DOMINANT. Could he be "Jax-like" arm who could crank up his velocity for a single inning, maybe 2 on occasion? Is his arm better built for that role perhaps? I could go in to further examples with others, but won't, and don't need to. The point is made. Instead of being later in the pecking order of an arm that MIGHT make it as a ML SP, how about reaching MLB sooner, with more $, and better benefits, and solid future earnings instead of "languishing" in MILB hoping to "make it" one of these days. And there are always other arms coming up behind you in the system. C: With a $90M beginning payroll, there's room to a couple of FA arms to deepen/improve the pen for 2026 as well. And I'm NOT talking about spending BIG $. What about a mid 30's LH option like Chaffin? Or bringing back Coulombe again? We might be talking about a 1yr $3-3.5M deal...a pretty small deal...for a 1 IP veteran who is still proving in 2025 they can get the job done? JUST another example. Is there another Stewart out there? Someone who picked 2025 to have a down season before they become a FA? Someone who was coming off surgery in 2025 and didn't have a great 1st season back? It's WAY TOO EARLY to list a bunch of options when the season isn't even done yet. Maybe a Jeff Hoffman, who they SHOULD have held on to? Absolutely NOT saying you have re-built the pen overnight to anything of great quality. But might you end up with a "serviceable" pen with a good and still potentially deep rotation? Imagine Sands getting back to being closer to his 2024 form, Festa and maybe Raya...giggles and examples... in the pen with a PAIR of solid FA veterans, along with Topa, (still under control), and Adams and Ohl as middle options. MAYBE Hatch is worth keeping? MAYBE another Stewart surprise? But if they can move a couple young arms with talent to the pen, add a couple solid, experienced veteran FA arms, etc, to the pen, they might at least have that serviceable pen. It's a hell of a lot easier than trying to build or re-build a rotation! BTW, didn't Cleveland re-build/re-tool THEIR 2024 pen by trusting in some young arms? 4] LINEUP/POSITION PLAYERS: While I stated I wasn't going to get in the manager or coaching aspect, I simply HAVE TO at this point to some degree. There is some sort of IDENTITY FLAW in the current Twins system regarding positional players and offensive approach. The Bomba Squad days are done. That doesn't mean POWER should be dismissed. POWER has ALWAYS played and WILL ALWAYS play. That doesn't mean HITTING ability and defense, and athleticism, defense, and speed to some degree, don't matter. Drafts over the past few seasons haven't ignored power and they shouldn't. But the scouting department has also drafted pretty heavily on ATHLETICISM. But it takes a while for said prospects to get there. Keaschall is the FIRST of said prospects to arrive. Others are on their way. They let go a coaching staff they felt underperformed and replaced them with another staff. The results have been worse. I'm NOT BLAMING the current hitting staff directly. Again, I'm just asking, IS THEIR AN APPROACH THE FO WANTS TO TAKE? And if there is, what is it? Wallner's 2023 and 2024 had him with decent AVG, a .370 OB%, and an OPS hovering around. 880 combined. He was off to a good start in 2025 before injury. Since then, he's struggled. Is that injury and timing issue STILL? Lewis has been admittedly struggling with his body and a new approach. But nobody has been able to help him with that? Or Wallner getting timing back? There IS an issue with either coaching or approach and that HAS to be addressed. But that's where I'm drawing the line on coaching and the FO at this point. A] The Twins DON'T have a 1B. No offense meant to Clemens who I'd bring back in 2026 as a 3 day player, ASSUMING he could be the same guy again. I would jump on JOSH NAYLOR at 29yo for a $14-15M deal for 2-3yrs. Considering how undervalued 1B has been recently, maybe we get him a bit cheaper. But he gives us a SOLID 1B glove and a SOLID veteran player in the clubhouse and SOLID player at the plate who produces 20+ Dbls and HR consistently. And he's neutral enough in his splits that he doesn't have to be platooned. B] The Twins DON'T have a #2 catcher for 2026. This whole playing Gasper at catcher makes me feel like the the FO is playing him there "just because". ********! Come on Falvey! $3M for a Diaz/Jansen type for 2026 while Cardenas is waiting in the wings as the new #3. C] Ideally we see Lewis get his base and new stroke working and we suddenly have a potential All Star player at 26yo and Wallner becomes again the .880 type producer he HAS BEEN before this season fully.healthy And Lee just keeps being better. D] And Rodriguez suddenly stays healthy for more than a few weeks and the Twins follow the Brewers MO, and just toss him in to LF and just accept all of his potential and ups and downs and do the same with Jenkins in the near future. F] Fedko and Gonzalez are right behind E] There remains the option to add a full time DH to this team. I'm not crazy about that option as I still kinda like the option of keeping DH open for half days off. But there are options out there. I'm just more concerned about letting the prospects play and rotating through DH as necessary. AT THE END: 90M payroll to start with. Spend about $10-12M tops on 1-3 pen arms to help future transition. Spend another $15M for Naylor at 1B for a veteran bat and presence. So can the Twins be competive in 2026? Well, they might compete for the ALC or a WC unless ownership tears them down to nothing. But the $27M -ish I've proposed STILL doesn't reach the $130M spent last year. That leaves room for a 1yr DH, or an added arm for the pen. And while id be advocating STRONGLY for extensions for Ryan and Jeffers, MOST of those types of deals wouldn't even take affect until 2027. There's a lot of room to navigate 2026 IF the FO can be smart about a couple of BP options brought in. As well as being smart in regard to handling the internal pitching options on hand. And IF they have a $130M payroll from last season....well below league average...to work with. Smart decisions need to be made But also, a lot depends not only on talent on hand, but so many TOP prospects oh so close. Again, Keaschall is the closest. But we need to see better results SOON! But if you want to look at HOW the Twins might be able to compete in 2026 for an above .500 record and potential playoff spot, and not destroy the team for a 100 loss season, there you go!
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No, I absolutely think they can and hopefully will improve. We need them to. And we need more than just them to improve and contribute. But keep the rotation arms and rebuild an empty pen and we can compete? Not a word of HOW to re-build the pen? Not a word how they might compete with an underperforming lineup? That was my objection.
- 102 replies
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- taj bradley
- mick abel
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The Left Side of the Infield Going Forward
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Here is what I Know. While Lewis is no longer a speedy player, he is a STRONGER player with a different body since drafted. He's also continued to have muscle injuries since his body has developed. He's actually acknowledged that. Despite some amazing performances he's produced, he's admitted he's still trying to figure out his body and his swing. It's frustrating as hell for him, the Twins, and all of us. I'm not willing to give up a 26yo kid who understands he's trying to figure out his swing at this point. He needs time, work, and another season to figure out his body and stoke. Lee needs to avoid "Miranda Disease" and stop believing CONTACT by itself is a good thing. He SAYS he understands that. Will he do anything with that knowledge? He began this season BARELY above rookie status as a 24yo. There's a ton of potential still sitting there if he can get his eyes/,head right. If Lee can ONLY achieve a portion of what was expected of him...not saying he can't/won't be better, he could still be a really good utility INF player. But Royce is a different matter. He's either going to be a BIG BAT at 3B, and maybe transition to 1B based on team need, OR, his injuries will make him a very sad story of "what might have been". I'm still betting on Lewis figuring things out once and for all and having an impact full 2026. I sure hope I'm right -
Good call! I am Not a pitching expert by any imagination. And with Prielipp being a LH, I have to reverse my train of thought. I don't know how his change works directionally. And that might determine whether a curve or sweeper is better. And I'm trying hard to remember the videos I've seen from his STUFF. I want to say the curve makes more sense based on memory. I'm thinking it befuddles RH batters more and could be used against LH hitters on occasion as "look at this" offering.
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I just SHOULDNT post this. I really shouldn't. But I'm in a MOOD at the moment. When someone wants to propose an ACTUAL PLAN for 2026, with actual ideas and payroll numbers that makes sense, and any sort of PLAN ideas, then I'm willing to produce PARAGRAPHS about my opion. So DON'T TRADE Lopez or Ryan or Ober and build on the rotation you have in place and build around what you have. Sorry I can't write in crayon. Sorry, but again, I'm in a MOOD regarding the Twins right now, no matter how much I love them after 50yrs, good and bad. And if someone wants to object to me, or give me the 1st demerit I've EVER received in over 12 years on TD, I guess go ahead. But I honestly expect more than this.
- 102 replies
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- taj bradley
- mick abel
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That's what you have? I'm sorry, but what are you looking at? [Maybe I need to create a daily Blog or fill out an application) The Twins are between $90-95M right now with arbitration figured in. .A move of Larnach, which I expect to happen, trade possible, puts the Twins around $90M. And all you have is the Twins might be good and close to competing if they keep their rotation in check and rebuild their bullpen? Will wonders never cease? HOW do they do that? What about the rest of the roster and how to build a lineup? Oh, that's not part of the OP? I'm really sorry. I'm about the nicest person you would ever meet. And I bite my to tongue daily here on TD with some comments I see. But I'm about to draw a line on the product/society that we have where a PAID OP can simply say: "the Twins are closer than you think if they just don't trade away their best pitchers". I mean...I'm trying so hard to not be mean. That's not me or my style. But come on!
- 102 replies
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- taj bradley
- mick abel
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He has pitched 65 innings in 2025 so far. That exceeds the 58 IP TOTAL previously between college and professional ball. He just needs to be healthy the rest of the season and keep working on his stuff. I've raised the point that the offseason would be a great time to add a 4th pitch to his repertoire. Some have said his current stuff is so good he doesn't need it. Maybe? But as good as his 3 pitches are, I can't image a 4th offering against RH batters being a bad thing. Maybe a cutter to give a different look than his normal FB and slider? Maybe an old school forkball or newer school splitter? The kid is still 24yo and won't be 25yo until January. Just BECAUSE he could be a dangerous and effective pen arm next season shouldn't dismiss the opportunity to be a rotation option. He's STILL younger than Matthews and Festa, and about the same age of SWR. DON'T let impatience affect your thinking. While I still believe he needs a decent/solid offering in addition to the tremendous STUFF he already has, he needs to work on command. With SO FEW INNINGS pitched as a collegian AND as a professional, he's STILL LEARING how to pitch! His BABIP is WAY high. That's because, much like Matthews, he's almost in the zone more than he needs to be. He needs to learn COMAND, not control, where he can move his pitches around the zone to get batters out. I'd be 100% fine if the Twins started him at AAA to begin 2026 and just SAT him there for at least a half season to work on COMAND, and maybe work on a 4th pitch vs shoving him to the pen as so many have called for. Hmmm...a LHSP that has top rotation upside in late 2026, or 2027, or a potentially stud BP LH arm in 2026? I'll pick the SP arm all day long.
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Jamie, I defer to you, Seth, and Tom in regard to expertise in regard to the MILB system, no matter how much I read, listen, and watch to a very limited degree. But a couple of points regarding Fedko, as I've been digging more in to his numbers. 1] You say his arm is around average, but he's spent more time in his MILB career in RF than LF: 153 GS vs 74 GS. I speculate he's no better than a 3rd option in CF, but he's got 51 GS there as well. So I'm a bit confused by his arm vs most of his time in RF. Just covering for lesser prospects perhaps? 2] He's never hit for a great AVG in his MILB career. But he also has a career MILB OB% of 111 points higher than his AVG. And yes, I completely understand the wildness of lower level pitching. But even ignoring his SSS at St Paul so far, his OB% at Wichita was 122 points higher than his AVG. While proof of nothing going forward, doesn't this indicate a kid who has bat control overall, and an idea of the zone? 3] I'm also a little confused about the mantra that he's repeated levels. It's certainly true to some degree I grant. But when drafted, he got 81 PA at Ft Myers. He did begin 2022 at Ft Myers, but after getting 109 PA appearances there, he got another 366 PA at CR to give him an ALMOST 3-1 profile of PA. I don't see that as out of place for a later draft choice in 2021. His numbers in 2022 were OK, but nothing to mark him as a prospect to follow. Here is where I get confused. To begin 2023, he was sent back to CR and had some really solid numbers, but only had 211 PA. Was there an injury that I don't recall? That's less than half of a full season, which he had in 2022. Am I missing something here? But regardless, he was jumped to AA in 2024 despite a short season the year before at CR. He basically TANKED in 294 PA appearances there. Was he still recovering from a previous injury in 2023 COMBINED with a promotion to AA? This is all from a MILB follower who thought he'd be released before 2025 and was SURPRISED he was still in the system when the season began! Maybe a depth piece only to begin the season? It's ONLY after the 2025 season began that I took a hard look at his career, his numbers, a possible injury that slowed his development, etc. I seriously doubt he's a legitimate 30/30 late bloomer while STILL only 25yo. MAYBE he's a good OB% guy who can be a 20/20 guy as a late bloomer. The fact that you state he's actually better against RHP is a GOOD thing since that's about 75% of what batters face. Or maybe he's just a 15/15 guy as a good 4th OF with solid defense at 2 spots, and can be a 3rd CF option. There are those who debate any prospect debuting beyond the 24-25yo threshold as being a viable ML prospect. I think there is SOME validity to that, but a very incomplete opinion based on history. And Fedko is still in his age 25 season. If Fedko is a quality defender, and has some speed, and has developed his power late, and has always managed a good OB%, shouldn't we be looking at him as a decent late developing prospect at this time? DID an injury affect him around 2022-2023 to slow his development initially? Again, I'm a guy who thought he'd just be released before 2025 even began. It wasn't until he SUDDENLY exploded this year that I took a serious look at his MILB career.
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There's no way to know right now what kind of HIT POTENTIAL Fedko might have at the ML level. But he's generally kept his MILB OB% 80-100 points higher than his AVG. And maybe his new found power and apparent speed that is leading him towards a 30/30 season might not be sustainable. But what if his power and speed are 20/20 capable? What if he's "only" capable of 15/15 with good defense and solid OB/OPS as a good 4th OF? That's worth something isn't it? I love me some Baseball Reference, but I admit to getting lost a little bit here and there when I try to dig deep. Does anyone have month by month breakdown of Rosario in regard to AVG and OB% numbers, if not the whole quad slash line month by month? Once again, MVP of the Midwest League in 2023 while only 20yo. Anyone remember that? He had an injury affected 2024 and didn't perform very well. He had a solid AFL after the season to "get back" some of the PA/AB he lost in '24. After just a HORRIBLE start to this season, for whatever reason, he's up to .252/ .365/ .474/ .839 with 22 Dbls-4 Trips-20 HR- and 25 SB out of 31 Attempts. Here there if you read and listen Rosario has a strong RF arm and isn’t a bad athlete or slow. His biggest problem defensively is ball tracking and route taking. And I have ZERO clue how much better he might or might not be in those crucial areas TODAY. I seriously DOUBT he has 30 SB ability at the ML level, and probably not 20 SB ability, but I don't care. That only tells me he's NOT a statue in RF, and NOT a statue on the bases. His consistently better OB% vs AVG tells me he has SOME idea of the zone. I honestly see a perhaps better version of Larnach here but from the RH side. As good or better arm. Maybe moves a little better. A DH who doesn't stink as a backup corner OF when needed. Barely 23yo at AA, I think he's been forgotten/dismissed by some due to his 2024 injuries and a slow start to 2025.
- 12 replies
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- kalai rosario
- kyler fedko
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Additionally, not surprising to get a newly acquired or promoted pitcher a chance to throw on the side and let the staff there take a look at him and also let him just get his bearings for a couple of days. For instance, Gallagher got shelled at Wichita in his first start and has looked pretty good his last two.
- 12 replies
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- kalai rosario
- kyler fedko
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Good call I guess. But I would have turned to AC/DC and Metallica maybe to rock so much dysfunction away. 😁
- 12 replies
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- kalai rosario
- kyler fedko
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"Free Kyler Fedko! Free Kyler Fedko!" But seriously, he's always done a good job of keeping his OB% about 80-100 points higher than his AVG. So he's got some plate discipline. With a little over a month left for AAA ball, he's got a shot at a 30/30 season. And he's still only 25yo! The Twins need a solid RH OF bat for 2026. Having a mix of speed and power and the ability to play a couple different spots is valuable. Why not Fedko? Prielipp just needs to stay healthy and keep throwing. Considering how little he's thrown to this point...something like a combined 58 IP between college and professional ball COMBINED...he's really still learning how to pitch. I wonder sometimes if he's too much in the zone? Might explain his BABIP being so crazy high. Langenberg on a roll! Definitely on track for AA in 2026.
- 28 replies
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- kyler fedko
- ty langenberg
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There were rumors the Astos were interested in Larnach. I'm betting there are other teams that would be interested in a power LH bat with a career .766 OPS against RHP. His career numbers against RHP and being an OK OF with a good arm still tells me he's enticing enough to bring a solid prospect back. I'd package him with a decent prospect for a solid BP arm for 2026. But Larnach by himself is not an indictment of poor development of the Twins MLB system. Lee has been a disappointment so far despite the fact he's a virtual rookie. I'd argue Wallner is a successful story DESPITE his injury this season, and a RIDICULOUS demotion in 2024 after a limited number of AB and then SITTING TOO LONG before bringing him back up. Keaschall is looking like a potential star. A HEALTHY Wallner is a potential great player, and has been. And MAYBE Lewis has dealt with so many injuries that nobody knows how to get him right at this point. How much blame on Twins development when Larnach hasn't developed to what we hoped for, or Lewis not being a STUD at this point despite injuries.? Lee entered this season as a virtual rookie. That he doesn't look like a future STUD player is WAY too soon to declare him a BUST at this point. I AM confused and frustrated and pissed off the FO doesn't seem to have an actual DIRECTION going forward. But other than Larnach, and Lewis TRYING to get his crap together, I'm not sure what the coaching staff could do. Oh wait! The fired batting coach is in charge of a lineup leading MLB in runs while the Twins sit at 23rd in ML following his firing. Tell me this FO has actuall plan in place !!!
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Nick, I usually love your perspective and just about everything you post. You generally seem to be logical and provide a wide lens. A LOT of us were and are still emotional about the trade deadline, as well as the announcement of the Pohlads still being in charge. I think you still need a step or two down from your emotional mountain. The title SHOULD have been something more akin to: "Is the Twins culture a reflection of ownership or Rocco's clubhouse? And is there a plan in place"? To at any point blame Correa for wanting a better, more clued-in and competent team on the field makes no sense. That's akin to saying Gray's leadership asking all pitchers to watch bullpens and discuss approach was a bad thing, even though other pitchers stated it was a welcome change and they embraced it. Correa has stated over and again how he wanted the Twins to WIN, and he wanted to be a part of it. He was so invested, he knew the MILB system as well as most posters here on TD. Now, if there is something under the surface that we as the public don't know about regarding Correa in the clubhouse, I'd sure like to know about it. On record and off record, there are reports of Rocco assuming blame for the failure to end 2024, and the failure of 2025. That's a man stepping forward. But whether anyone likes him as a manger or not, HE ultimately doesn't make the roster. That's still the FO, albeit with some input from him. Whether Rocco is a good manager, a mediocre manager, or a poor manager is up for debate. But regardless of his talent level as a manager, he has to do the best with what he's got. Rocco has stated that he's tried to be calm and daily focused on positives. He's also tried to be angry and curse and try to shake things up. For the past 365 days or so, nothing has stopped a tumble for a team that was WINNING in 2024 before a collapse that suddenly happened. I'm not going to assign blame to ownership to FO to Rocco and his coaches with any sort of percentages as that would be misguided at this point. I will only say, crap still rolls downhill doesn't it? But what is the plan??? We can debate all day long about the talent on hand vs the Blue Jays, but the fact is Popkins was dismissed at the end of 2024 and immediately grabbed up by the Jays. They currently lead the AL in runs scored. NOT saying Borgshulte is a poor hitting coach...a few players have previously commented on help he provided them...but the Twins currently rank 23rd in runs scored. They were around 11th place in 2024. So the offense has TANKED by changing whatever approach they previously had. How much of that is on the FO, the coaching, and the players? Again, does this organization actually have a plan? To anyone who hasn't been paying attention, 2 things have been taking place the past few years. #1] The pitching pipeline might not be flowing as freely as some would like, but it's produced an improved Ryan, and Ober, Festa, SWR, Matthews, Duran, Jax, Varland, and some very intriguing prospects on their way up. Some close. BTW, Cleveland's valued pipeline ALSO includes TRADED FOR options. They simply DIDN'T draft all of their arms. #2] While the scouting/drafting department hasn't ignored POWER...and they SHOULDNT...they've also been drafting more athletic, speed, and defense players the past few cycles. Keaschall is the 1st to reach the ML level. And while only a small percentage of players will ever actually reach the ML level and be quality starters or solid bench players, they HAVE made a deliberate effort to go away from pure power to athleticism. But what is the plan going forward? The FO COMPLETELY destroyed the pen in order to shake up the roster...and that includes the $ saved from Correa...because that was a strength position to deal from. There is a method to all the madness if the Twins FO NOW KEEPS the ONE STRENGTH of the team, which is the rotation, and builds around it. Is there a plan in place? IF Larnach is moved by himself, or part of a package with another solid player/prospect in place, they might add a solid RP. Then, they have to look at all the arms currently in play as options for the pen. Plus, of course, a couple of fliers that might be the next Stewart or Thielbar. Offense and defense, they need Lee to improve. They need to get Lewis RIGHT. Wallner, despite his flaws, is a .800÷ OPS performer. Jeffers is a solid catcher and amongst the top 4-5 offensive catchers in the game. Can Rodriguez ever stay healthy enough to just take a spot? How soon might Culpepper and Jenkins debut? IMO, Fedko needs an honest look as a 4th OF.. Right behind him is Gonzalez as a DH/corner OF, even as a player as platoon player...but he might be better than that. But these guys are CLOSE! I'm deliberately ignoring bench options like Schobel if he's healthy and figures it out at the ML level, or DeBarge, or Winoker down the line. Or even Clemens as a solid bench player for the immediate future. There's actually a lot of PLAYER talent on hand that needs a step forward, or is just about ready to debut. So what is the plan? IF we really want to compete and re-tool for the future then the WORST THING the Twins could do is trade Lopez or Ryan. Those 2 and Ober lead the rotation with Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, Morris, and others right behind. And Ryan should be a priority extension signing. WITH arbitration $ figured in, the Twins are only sitting about $90-95M. Even if Larnach is moved for something else, the Twin are sitting $92M-ish. This means the "luxury" of spending $20-25M on a bat or two, or a RP or two, and STILL have a payroll below 2025 for the Pohlads. But it still comes down to Falvey and Zoll...though I wonder how much control Zoll has at this point...in regards to change and/or additions. A new deal for Jeffers for 2 additional years and Ryan for an additional 3yrs DOESN'T blow up ANYTHING for 2026 as their extensions wouldn't even take affect until 2027, assuming there is a season to be played. Once again, IS THERE A PLAN IN PLACE? I'm looking at YOU Falvey. I think Rocco and Twins fans would love to see some top prospects given a chance to build an exciting contender team with a great rotation and the ability to score runs, play a small game once a in a while, close out games you can win, and be a contender because the Twins have a good staff with more arms coming up. And while I still have concerns about COACHING our top prospects, I want to see them ASAP. IF the FO suddenly decides to trade away Lopez or Ryan, then I'm all about torches and pitchforks. Falvey should resign at that point and just state: "this isn't what I signed on for". It's ALL ABOUT IS THERE A PLAN IN PLACE?
- 144 replies
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- carlos correa
- rocco baldelli
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That we have a nice collection of options to debate is exciting! When I rank prospects, I try to balance proximity of level/closeness to MLB as well as potential/ceiling. Keaschall is currently my #2 prospect behind Jenkins and I don't care that he will "graduate" from "legal" rookie status fairly soon. I find the MLB rookie status numbers to be arbitrary and quite debatable. At 185 PA Lee was BARELY out of rookie status to begin 2025. And Matthews at only 37 IP was no longer considered a rookie due to roster service time. So Keaschall remains my #2. I have a serious dilemma beyond them, but I'm sticking with E Rodriguez at #3 for now. I know he's a super talented enigma who has missed SO MUCH playing time. But he's 22yo at AAA and still holding his own. The ceiling is still very high. And he brings defense, speed, and power/power potential with solid OB skills. He's also frustrating as hell due to the injuries! Is he snakebit? Has he just been growing in to his body a bit through natural maturity as such a young player? Is he DUE to just be healthy again come 2026? (Goodness knows he's due)! If he's actually healthy to begin 2026 I'd follow the same path the Brewers did with Jackson Chourio and just GIVE HIM LF to begin the season, bat him low in the order, and let it fly and let him develop. To say he might be Gallo-esque in his potential career would be slighting his potential. But with a mediocre AVG and solid OB with lots of HR and XB power combined with speed and excellent defense, he could be a very, very good offensive and defensive player even if he only HITS in the .230-.240 range. #4 is Culpepper. He plays a premium position and it seems he will stay there. He's Keaschall...more or less here and there...but a better defender as a solid SS. #5 is Tait for me. He plays a premium position but is just too far away based on my personal evaluation preference. Unless he's a statue behind the plate, and his arm suddenly goes wild, or he just can't comprehend the subtitles of being a game caller/controller... all of which I doubt will happen...if he's Jeffers quality as a backstop, he's a potential STUD. I mean, really, if he ONLY hits .220-.230...not saying he will ONLY hit that...but is solid behind the plate and cranks 20-30 HR a year we're talking about an All Star caliber catcher. I'm not ignoring the potential of Abel, who others rank higher, and who has been a top 100 prospect in multi years, I just can't place him above these others right now based on THEIR ceiling and HIS ceiling. And my opinion might look stupid down the road. And I accept that. I just feel pitchers take more time to reach their ceiling, while position players seem to usually reach there's quicker. Which is why Abel is #6 for me. I hope he proves me wrong!
- 37 replies
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- eduardo tait
- walker jenkins
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Personally, I believe they'll sign an OK, 30+ years old veteran catcher who's not expensive, is solid behind the plate, and won't embarrass himself behind AT the plate. A Jansen, Diaz type. Cardenas will probably be the #3 option on St Paul to give his bat a little more time to catch up.
- 24 replies
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- eduardo tait
- khadim diaw
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