DocBauer

The thing I really like about Odorizzi is how well he uses the high strike to befuddle batters. And while I really like him, what he lacks is any sort of "whipeout" pitch to limit pitches thrown. Which is why he is a 5-6 IP vs a 6-7 IP. Let's face it. The game has changed. There are just so few guys out there who can be a 7 IP arm. Aggressiveness and launch angles as opposed to contact and opposite field hitting have changed the game. If Oddo had that ONE pitch he could really count on, his living high in the zone could make him a $25M guy instead of just really good. Not sure about "upside" as the OP teases. To me, depth and potential should have been a better topic.

Full confession, I don't follow other teams and the league as a whole the way I used to. (When i knew about everyone of note). What I know about him is spotty memory, once I pulled his binder from my mental library, and what has been posted here and 2 other articles/blogs. I am completely "meh" on this signing. But I, and most of us, expected a couple of signings like this, as fliers. They usually don't pay off. But occasionally, they do. It's only an invite and flier. There is a chance, healthy, change of scenery, he suddenly looks like the solid guy he was for 2017-2018. That would/could provide depth and insurance. Listening to the recent podcast of Gleeman and the Geek, Gleeman has the impression the Twins really like Thorpe and think he has a real future. (No knock on anyone else). And while Thorpe will not be handed a job, he seems to feel the Twins believe in him. I do as well. I also am of the belief Dobnak is not just a good/fun story. But every team signs fliers. It's just smart, normal baseball. Again, this is just that and depth and a coin in the fountain in case one of the young guys isn't quite ready yet. I'd rather see the kids get their shot. There appears to be something there. But I'm OK with options.

As Han Joelo pointed out when using OPS+, suddenly the Twins are #1. The Yankees do play in an absolute bandbox. My point being, there are various ways to measure subject matter like this. I think you did a good and rational job though. However, you do base everything on a position by position basis for a final outcome. Which I get. And you're not wrong necessarily. But how about Buxton for 140 games? Maybe he still finishes 2nd here. But the overriding impact is tremendous. Same for Sano at 1B doing what he did last year but all year in 2020. There is no #1 with a bullet attached to this ranking system, just position by position, not really the team as a whole. Great debate!

Simple truth is these things sort of work themselves out. One or two will be traded, one or two will just not work out, (but could bounce around and re-surface elsewhere), and Rosario may or may not be around past 2021. But, in theory and keeping the OP context in mind, Larnach takes over LF from a departed Rosario. Kiriloff plays 1B with Sano to DH, but not necessarily exclusively. Raley or Rooker could PH/DH and play 3 spots. Lewis is still an infielder, hopefully will stick there, and could still play some OF. Why couldn't he? Might be room for Cave or Wade as a 4th OF until Celistino maybe comes along. Room for everyone? Nope. But there is room. And again, these things tend to work themselves out.

I like Dobnak a lot. There is nothing electric about him, but his stuff is decent, he seems to really have the knack for pitching...which a lot of guys never really learn...and I agree he seems to have that "bulldog" demeanor. I think he's more ready and polished than Thorpe is...today. Not sure I want to make a prediction, but if I was going to, I'd say Thorpe will be the better of the two by season end and in 2021 and beyond. As was stated earlier, when you think about the time he missed, and how aggressive the Twins have been promoting him, he almost shouldn't have been up last year. Once his control gets a little better, he settles down a little more, I just have a really good feeling about him.

Really enjoyed this and the previous Dobnak article. Gills me with much hope, and I already liked what I saw from both guys last year. A shame we only have such a SSS though. Really wish each could have taken a few more of Perez's and Gibson's outings in retrospect.

Agreeing with you, for the most part. I never thought Archer was an ACE and deserving of a big trade package. I probably like him better now as a high velocity, 31yo bounceback candidate than a couple years ago when he was a hot comoddity. I think he absolutely maxes out as a #2 with a change of scenery and new coaching, probably no better than a 3. But there could still be real value there if gotten on the cheap side. I know Musgrove more in passing than anything. I don't know what his ceiling is. But I find comparisons and debates involving him, Alcantara and other various 26-27yo SP options as "Gibson" types and no better. But if you are the Twins, and you don't want to just sit and wait for prospects, you can trade for one of these young "Gibson" types and hope for development, or, you can trade through the nose for a top of the rotation starter, (if one is made available), or you take a flier on an aged and expensive Price type. It's the job of the FO and the coaching staff to develop what we have and what we have coming. And it's their job to decide which way to go via the trade route. But given the choice, I think I'd rather have the 26-27yo with a live arm and upside.

I don't know that Pittsburgh is the proper port for the Twins to conduct a trade or not. That's up to Captain Falvey and his first mate Levine to decide along with their various officers and crew. But there are intriguing reasons for either of these 2 to be brought on board. No question it's an opportune time to strike and the Twins have a powder keg of ammunition available to make something like this happen. It's also possible, more so than last with experience in regard to the hard deadline, that the trade winds could blow more favorably in the Twins direction come mid season when more teams hoist the white flag of surrender. The Twins sit on a treasure chest of opportunity and available talent at the ML and milb level. Is it too early to fire our guns? I don't know. I'd rather be aggressive and make an early move to avoid being broadsided later. I don't know which coarse they will follow, and I will trust them, but I hope their long view through scope is true and they strike with all hands on deck when the opportunity avails. This could be the perfect time and target.

Not to pile on anyone, but was fascinating to listen to Plouffe on the podcast talk about how his hitting instruction in his first couple of years of milb were so ridiculously restrictive. No names were mentioned, of course, but WOW.

Hrbek is one of my all time favorite Twins. Loved every part of the interview and wish it had been longer. But the Plouffe interview might have been even better. He needs to be part of the broadcast teams.

Matt, not going to lie...while I understood all the stats you there out, there comes a point with every hitting metric, and every defensive metric, combined with every pitching metric, including those you listed here, when you have to just step back shake your head, and watch the game. I know you stated the positives for Pineda as well, but if all the metrics we are inundated with were 100%, MLB would be Dungeon and Dragons for baseball and dice would be rolled in regard to player character sheets and the outcomes would be as such. What we have here, plain and simple, is a veteran guy who has been around who "knows how to pitch". Period. He's learned, grown and adapted. Like Splash45 states, baseball is littered with guys who have tremendous velocity but never turn out. With no disrespect to Pineda, in an ideal world, he would be our #4 SP. But I'd take the current version of him as our #3 without fuss. BUT, in regard to velocity, now a full year, (more or less), removed from surgery, I wouldn't be a but surprised to see at least a small uptick in velocity. NOTE: Fully appreciate his ERA and all final numbers for 2019. But let's not forget he was OK initially, but once he got his legs under him, he was a much better performer from June 1st on.

I am not being dismissive to those who warmly embrace defensive metrics. But I just feel those measurements are so bard to accurately quantify that I remain skeptical and still buy in a ton to the eye test. A healthy Rosario is a quality defensive OF despite a few hair pulling moments. Buxton for 120-140 games in a difference maker in many ways. Included in that is just allowing Kepler to stick in RF daily. (I wish Cave could take his athleticism and exuberance and just learn to track the ball better to be a more natural alternative in CF on an occasional basis.) Good ankle, a full year with his new throwing motion, and another year of experience, I feel Polanco will continue to improve. Donaldson being to his right won't hurt him. Arraez settling in to 2B, with experience of 2019 under his belt, will settle down to be at least OK. The infield defense will not be great. But I think it will be improved.

No answers, just some things to ponder: 1] If Romero, even later in the season, had started to round in to form and show real potential, would Graterol still be penciled in to the bullpen to begin the upcoming season? 2] If Romero NOW rounds in to form in 2020, does that speed up a return of Graterol to the rotation? 3] From various basic reports, Graterol's 3rd and 4th pitches would seem to be better than Romero's "extra" offerings. Is everyone better off just keeping Romero in the pen? Or does he go back to the rotation in Rochester for another shot if he doesn't blaze a trail in ST to make the pen? Just some thoughts to debate.

I don't pretend to know how the Twins farm system and depth compared to Arizona. So, naturally, I can't accurately state if Celestino and Enlow is fair or an overpay. Gut reaction is that might be a slight overpay. It's hard to compare Marte and Archer due to the CF/SP diconomy. Both are 31. But Marte is coming off a quality year and Archer is clearly a bounceback candidate coming off some decline. Archer is someone I've mentioned before because he is a great candidate, with a change of scenery and coaching, to reverse his trend and become at least a mid rotation option again. But recent trends should make his prospect cost less.

If he's hurt or has no velocity, then pass. But a former top prospect And only 27yo is exactly the type of flier a team like the Twins should be looking at. From Walker's perspective, you get to join a competitive, winning team with real post season aspirations, a wide window, a respected new pitching coach, and there is real opportunity here.

You beat me to Poppen! I would have replaced Stashak with him or made this a 4 man list. And when I say replace Stashak I mean he pitched enough and well enough that I'm not sure he qualifies as a breakout candidate. Kind of feel he already broke out. Romero could/should be wicked out of the pen, but he can't continue to be so wild and walk so many. Obvious! No idea if it's a repeatabilithnissuemor a confidence one but here's hoping Johnson can fix him.

Don't want to just echo some of the previous comments and be redundant, but probably will anyway. But first, I want to comment about Sano himself. Despite his freak accident and some poor initial care, the guy worked really hard to come in shape last season. When cleared to play, he hit, then looked lost, but continued to grind, work, adapt, and then took off! By all reports, he continues to be working this offseason to remain in shape and be ready to go. He not only signed his extension while knowing the Twins were working to sign Donaldson, but made a video plea for him to sign and come on board. What did he say, something about being more than willing to move to 1B to make room for him. I don't think it's far fetched to say we have been witness to the maturation of this young man. As to his defense and potential acumen: 1] You don't have to be a large individual to play 1B. Hell, we've seen various short 1B previously, even as fill ins. Adrianza can even fill in OK there if you need him to. But presenting a larger target with length to reach for balls is nice to have. 2] His strong arm is necessarily wasted at 1B, as previously mentioned, when making throws to 2B for a double play or even a throw to home. 3] He has gone from poor to fine chasing foul balls, he'll just be doing so on the other side of the diamond and a regular basis now. 4] I have maintained for some time now, and still believe, that lateral range was his biggest issue at 3B and not his hands. The guy charges and fields bunts and slow rollers well. He usually secures what he gets to with no problem. 5] A baseball career from teenage SS to ML 3B has allowed him to see thousands of hot shots and ball skips on the turf/dirt. There is no reason he can't dig out throws. In short, there is no reason he can't be OK to good at 1B defensively. But there are footwork nuances around the bag and taking throws from the pitcher, or catcher, much less the rest of the infield that will take time to learn and polish. He will not be a finished product immediately, and that has to be remembered. I am very optimistic for his future there, but am really hoping Morneau will be in ST and impart wisdom to him.

I hesitate to ask as it's an unfair question, and a very new procedure with little track history, but what would be the best "guesstimate" for success?

Wow. I feel like I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night! Great write up! Really hoping for the best here. Very smart signing with no risk, high reward. 100% if he's not ready until July.

I gotta be honest, I was thinking he had already been elected in. Very deserving!! One of my all time favorite Twins. Ahhh...what might have been.

I could get behind Pillar if Cave were traded. Veteran RH bat and quality CF option who would allow Kepler to pretty much stick to RF, even with Buxton out or taking a day off. I wish Cave were more natural in the OF, particular CF. He makes some really nice plays and also has some ridiculous flubs. It almost seems like he just can't always judge/track the ball. But I'd still stick with him over Pillar at this point. He's younger, has a better bat, and there is still room for modest improvement. It's got to be him or Astudillo for the last spot.

The depth is there, overall, to be sure. Cave is a really nice 4th OF, though Marwin could be the first choice, depending how the initial 26 man roster turns out. Of course, he can also fill in nicely at 1B and 3B, SS and 2B in a pinch. Of course, Adrianza can play the entire INF and still play LF if you need him to. Surprised you didn't mention Wade for the OF. Still unsure how good he could be, but shouldnt be dismissed. Really nice to think about the top prospects rising up, but shouldn't dismiss what is on hand/roster either. Despite a love/hate relationship, Astudillo just shouldn't be dismissed. HEALTHY, he has shown hit ability with contact and some pop. Versatility and being a "ballplayer" are NOT negative terms. When healthy, he has looked solid. Gordon has the potential to step forward and help. Honestly, before he got hurt, he was probably the guy to be promoted before Arraez. I remain a mix of confused, frustrated and opptomistic about the staff and their use of Graterol. I also feel frustrated and opptomistic about Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer. I absolutely 100% get SSS. I absolutely am scared about the first month and a half to next season in regard to depth, performance and results. And who knows, maybe there is anything from a minor to major move yet to take place. I sure hope so. But no matter what happens, I will say this, I honestly don't know how far back I would have to look to see 3 guys, even with SSS, that looked like any or all could be viable ML pitchers. Really, really hoping Duran, by the second half, has a lot of people saying; "oh yeah, that guy, almost forgot about him".

What I find so fascinating about how the discussion has turned here is how everyone is not only so respectful of everyone else's option...and I would expect nothing less...but how everyone is really stating almost the same opinion, but from just slightly different vantage points, which means we are really splitting some fine hairs here. Which, of course, means I have to toss in my own perspectives and opinions. I'd like to say I'll be brief as I can, but Chief will just tease me about that if I say it. 1] At this point in time, I don't buy that Marwin and Adrianza and others are automatically gone next season. You keep guys who are good and contribute to your success as a team. Just way too early to speculate about 2021 payroll. 2] I'm not picking on a player, but I'm going to accidentally do so. The tiny, split hair debate Brian is having, goes back a couple of seasons to when Molitor was the manager and LaMarre made the club as the last man. Note: the roster is absolutely different then than it is now. If LaMarre was good enough to make the club, then he was good enough to play. And if he wasn't good enough to play, then he shouldn't be on the roster and someone else should have been promoted and given opportunity. The Morrisson signing, unto itself, was a smart move. It turned out terrible. So rather than just continue to play him, SOMEONE, ANYONE, should have been given a shot instead, rather than just beating a dead cat against the wall. (Monty Python fans will get that, God Bless Terry Jones). Now, I get a team, a poor team, that is shallow in talent not having options just hoping for luck and a turnaround. That is NOT our beloved Twins. But the context remains. I hate to state the obvious, but on even the absolute best teams with a roster of 13 position players...lets say a team coming off a 101 win season (wink)...it's pretty damn doubtful that you have 13 position players that are so high quality they could/should/can start and provide maximum value. There will always be someone who is flat out a better player than the guy behind them. To argue semantics that someone is a "reserve" or "bench" player is kind of ridiculous. Witness Cave and Adrianza. Adrianza, right now at least, is probably a better defensive SS than Polanco. But his overall contributions to a winning team don't match Polanco as the primary SS. That doesn't demean Adrianza as a viable and contributing part of the club. In the same way, Marwin is a very talented player in many aspects. He can be very solid as a "starter", but is best served, and provides greater value, as a multi-position "reserve". Semantics again. Cave? Cave is a really nice ballplayer who still has some potential. But some guys, lime Adrianza, get an opportunity and run with it. Cave has done really well, but when opportunity arose, he didn't just grab opportunity. At least not yet. Hence, despite numbers and production, he is a "reserve" or bench player or alternate at this time. Maybe, given a daily shot with the Twins, or someone else, he could/might turn a corner and escalate. But we are going to get caught up in semantics of roles with a manager who plays everyone and let's them have opportunity? Again, we are splitting fine hairs here. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Raley...opportunity will come. 3] I love this FO, despite a few flubs. (Including some bad PR moments). Since day 1 they have talked about building the organization from top down for a sustainable, competitive franchise. IMO, they have had 2 1/2 years to build the system. I include the half season because no matter how informed you'd like to think they are/we're, you are still joining a new franchise and simply don't know everything you have, or all the variables in play, until you punch that clock. There have been MAJOR changes from the top on down since they took over. There should be no need to go over this again. Are they COMMITTED to prospects? Honestly, I don't know. Do you know? If they were, would that be a terrible thing? Or are we still stuck in our thinking regarding the past way of doing things? Just because they haven't made a major prospect move in a trade thus far, does it mean they won't? Despite being pleasantly surprised and stunned by the Donaldson signing, weren't we also elated/surprised by the Cruz and Marwin signings last season? How did those turn out? Remember how up in arms we were, me included, when we didn't sign one of the RP FA available last offseason? Just because we haven't seen a thing doesn't mean we won't see a thing. Now, mid-season, or next off-season, we could see depth of the farm moved. Point of fact, a few minor injuries curtailed Rooker, Lewis and Kirilloff. Young as they are, talented as they are, could an additional half season of positive results make any of them even more desirable in future trades? Just spitballing. Just because we haven't seen a thing yet doesn't mean we won't see a thing.

Again, my initial thoughts are for him to start, either for the Twins or in Rochester, and transition to the pen later in the year due to IP. But I'm wondering now if the plan is to work out if the pen, use and work on his secondary stuff in games and on the side with Johnson, keep his IP under control, and look to join the rotation later in the year. Sort of an ongoing development program at the ML level, where you still contribute, but get to work with the top staff.

Harper is probably gone as soon as the Donaldson signing is made officially. (Wouldn't mind him sticking around in a milb signing). Any other FA signing means Wisler is gone the same. Does that matter? Or are the Twins of the belief Johnson can teach him a FB to go along with his slider and truly hesitant to dump him before trying? (Never thought you'd here that, right?). Walker is the only guy I see here worthy of a ML deal and 40 man spot. Will he get that? Would he be willing to jump on board right now for a milb deal and an invite...with obvious opportunity...with some really nice incentives? This is the perfect time to bring in a couple of these guys on milb fliers. Again, opportunity is there. Nobody, other than Walker, really intrigues me much. But it's the job of the FO to identify which of these guys are worth it and have a chance. But unless an actual ML trade is made, it would be borderline misguided, if not stupid, to not bring in a couple flier options. Is Collin McHugh still available, or did he sign recently? TwinsO'Holic had a recent blog post that made some sense to consider him as an option.