DocBauer

I think Kirilloff is being targeted to be the probable OF, but he also has to earn the job. This could easily result in an "accidental" extra year of service time. Rooker is older, has successful AAA time and looked ready in his SSS. The team already knows what they have in Cave and Wade. So I can see a scenario where Kirilloff doesn't have a great ST and comes up later. But once he's up, I think he'll be up for good.

I have been rooting for Javier for some time. All the potential in the world! He showed some real potential his first 2 years. And then he missed 2018 due to injury. And he might be the #1 guy in the system who got screwed by no milb season to get back to normal. But I think you are thinking of someone else or looking at the wrong season. His quad splits in 2019 were awefull.

I admit to being a bit worried last year about him. But with no milb season last year and not being on the taxi squad at St Paul, would someone really bank on stashing him for a year? I know scouts and various FO are always working and projecting. But do you really think he's at risk this time?

I'm with you on Rortvedt. I would be STUNNED if someone selected him and kept him. He's just not ready. He needs at least another year, especially after missing 2020. But really good and interestingly catcher prospects are valuable. Someone could find a reason to stash him on the roster or the IL. I'd like to be safe and protect him. I like Garver and absolutely don't think the 2020 version of him is the real player. But I think Jeffers and Rortvedt are the future.

First off, just want to say this podcast was outstanding! It was well laid out from top to bottom with options and opinions and thoroughly entertaining. Just a couple quick points: 1] Payroll is just such a mystery not only for the Twins, but for everyone. It's great that the TD staff and ML Traderumors and others offer up speculated contract offers. And while some guys WILL GET PAID, I still think a lot of the proposed numbers are high, including some of the targets I've seen for RP. Hand is a perfect example of how crazy this market may be. For every team to pass on him at $10M indicates a drop in $ across the board, IMO. 2] I think the Twins FO and staff have a really good eye for BP talent. And I have faith they will end up with a solid to great bullpen in 2021 no matter what direction they ultimately take. Those things being said, the Twins are a TOP contender with a wide open window with talent on hand, options available, and young talent on the way. But one way to KEEP being a contender is to make sure the pitching staff doesn't regress. My PERFECT scenario would be as follows: Rogers: $6M May: $5M Clippard: $3M (maybe as low as $2.5M) Yates: $4M And there is more than enough depth to not only complete the pen, but to have depth on hand. But that's roughly $18M...not a large amount really...applied to the $37M available to spend to reach the proposed $125M payroll target we are speculating. That leaves $18M left for a SP and Cruz, while ignoring any decent 10th man utility player signing. That's just not going to work. Clippard may be too good, too dependable and too cheap to not bring back. I think you have to decide if May or Yates makes the most sense. Yates has the track record but is a health question mark while May is younger, healthier, and may have another level left in him. My best guess? Rogers is back, Clippard is back, SOMEONE in the May-Yates-Hunter category MIGHT be signed for $3-4M and a flier is taken on a milb/$1M deal like the examples of Kline-Jones-Robertson. (Incentives could be thrown in, but would gladly be paid out if performance earned them I'd think). Depending on the proposed 3rd signing, the Twins then have $24-28M for Cruz, SP (Odorizzi?), Adrianza and a solid 10th man utility option. That's cutting things really close, but is do-able. Really wish the $ was there for $130M payroll. The opportunity is present for the Twins to put together a hell of a team for 2021 if it were.

With all the craziness left over in regard to arbitration, FA, non-tendered players, etc, as part of the hangover from 2020 civic, crazy to realize rule 5 is also affected. With payroll questions and cuts, will anyone really want to spend money on a rule 5 pick? Or will teams be looking to spend a relatively small financial investment even if it means stashing a player for an entire year? Of course Balazovic is a given. I'm really not sure anyone would be willing to keep a AA catcher on their roster, but I'd be very tempted to protect Rortvedt just to make sure. I don't want to lose any of the guys listed. The system is deep and all of the guys listed have the potential over the next season or two to knock on the ML door. But are they really at risk of being selected and kept for a whole season? And while I believe there are some guys here who have a real chance over the next couple of years...as I previously stated...is there anyone listed who couldn't be replaced by others in the system? I think the givens are just that, with Rotvedt as the one question. Otherwise, we will need roster spots for whatever moves will be made over the next few months.

I always enjoy topics like this, filled with so much speculation. I was, and remain, a fan of Escobar. I really wish we still had him, and that's not a knock on our current roster or those acquired. I'm agreeing with Mike that's it's just too early to tell if anyone actually won the trade. IIRC, the Twins did offer an extension but it was turned down. Considering he re-upped with Arizona for a very manageable contract, the Twins offer must have been low, or, not good enough to Escobar considering Sano was still the expected 3B and Polanco was coming on etc. Did the Twins receive a good haul in return? Absolutely! Now, we don't know how good Duran will be. But the guy has the right build and great stuff and results to back it up. (At least at the milb level). I have yet to read a single opinion from anyone that doesn't like him and his potential. And big potential arms are extremely valuable. As to Maciel and Trinidad, well, we'll see. The Twins system is LOADED pretty good OF talent but not everyone makes it, and there are always trade possibilities. You need 3 really good ones, plus a solid 4th, and sometimes a 5th when talking about depth and even DH possibilities. I believe Celestino is definitely ahead of Maciel. That doesn't mean Maciel doesn't turn out to be quality...or tradeable...as a 4th OF. Maybe Celestino gets moved at some point. Or maybe he takes over for Buxton at some point and we need that backup CF option. (Not saying I predict or want that, but it could happen). Trinidad, I believe, can/has played some CF but projects as a corner OF with a solid skill set. Again, a possible 4th OF option? Duran is the key piece here. And we should see him at some point in 2021. When and how good he is immediately is impossible to judge at this point. If either of the OF's turn in to decent/solid players, or part of a future trade, it could easily be a "victory" trade for the Twins for sure. As MajorLeague stated clearly, Duran as a quality ML SP to possible top 2 SP option will give the Twins the win here. But we're at least a year from a decision.

I haven't listened yet but will. I've always had a soft spot for Blankenhorn since drafted. I always hoped he was going to be one of those really good athletes who just needed time to devote himself to one sport. I've been a bit disappointed, but he seems to be coming in to his own now. I'm not sure he's ready to fill the super utility role that Marwin held just yet, but I'm hopeful he could be soon.

Agreed! But 34yo, barely pitched at any level for 2yrs, I just have a hard time seeing $10M. I'm just guessing, but I'm thinking half that with incentives for GS, IP, etc. I am thoroughly intrigued! But I don't know that I'd sign him with the idea of being my #4 SP.

I like to pride myself on Twins knowledge and a good memory. But I have to be honest that I barely recall his initial time with the Twins. Looking at his stats, they were OK. Not great, but OK. When the Twins brought him back, and I read his story, and I heard about all his changes and increased velocity, saw what he did at AAA for Detroit, I thought "why not take a flier"? But honestly, I wasn't expecting much. What I saw this year surprised me. I DIDN'T see him sit around 93-94 as had been reported. Instead, what I saw was solid breaking stuff and great control. He actually reminded me of Stashak from the port side. I applaud his dedication! I really hope what we saw in 2020 was not a mirage. If it wasn't, he could be a solid middle innings guy for the next few years.

Cody, nothing inherently wrong with your roster. But I choose to disagree on a few points. 1] Ozuna is a real talent. You and MLB Traderumors agree at $18M per. He's probably worth that under normal conditions. But we are facing anything but normal right now. I see very few teams willing to commit that kind of $. And we have a whole roster to consider. While I'd love to have him, I reflect on the following ideas: A] Cruz for 1yr at $12-15M...tops...or something like $12-13M with a $10-12M option and a nice $3-4M buyout. You save $ for the roster, aren't handcuffed financially, and have some potentially great bats not only knocking at the door, but ready to break it down. B] Brantley doesn't have Cruz's or Ozuna's pure power, but is probably just as good of a "hitter" with proven veteran production and should come with a cheaper price tag than Ozuna. I'm reading $14M per, but I'm still not sure that will be reality when the smoke clears. 2] Blankenhorn, IMO, is a guy nobody should sleep on. He is athletic and versatile position-wise with a decent bat that has power and he can run a bit. POTENTIALLY, he can play 5 spots decently as a 10th man while bringing something to the offense. The Twins added him to the 40 man, added him to the taxi squad, and promoted him for a game for a reason. But to bank on him to begin 2021 as their 10th man? I don't see it. Even with this expected crazy and unpredictable off-season, the Twins are fortunate that there are a number of very interesting super-utility types available from Cabrera to Profar, etc. I have a tough time believing all of these various options will garner $6-7M contracts. Depth of options should allow someone to be available in the $4-5M range and give Blankenhorn a little more time to be ready. 3] I absolutely LOVE the idea of Kluber on a flier! But that's where I draw the line. He COULD be the biggest SP steal of the 2021 FA class. But at 34yo and injured and virtually invisible for 2yrs, I simply can't see a $10M deal. I think he is at best $4-5M with bonuses that could reach $12M. Again, LOVE to take a shot! But the Twins best rotation options seem to be a half season or so away. And I don't believe they, or most teams, would gamble that much guaranteed cost on a healthy flier considering current conditions financially. Odorizzi, for example, is a safer but lower ceiling bet.

Another tremendous podcast with outstanding thought and evaluation. Sorry I could only listen and not message in. My thoughts: I'm intrigued by Smyly if finally healthy. Injury history has me intrigued, however, as a 5th SP option. His arm talent, again if fully healthy, is there. And further removed from past injury makes him look all that much better. BUT, can he replicate 2020 results over a full season? That's why I view him as a 5th SP idea. And with payroll considerations, $4M with other young arms available and maybe other fliers may not make a fit with the Twins. Gausman is one of those guys I always seem to forget about, though I recall some momentum for him here on TD over the last couple of seasons. I think he could be an ideal choice at 29yo for a multi-year deal, especially with Pineda only signed for one more. Not convinced the $10M is right as I'm still expecting bargains to abound. But he could be a bargain at that rate. Robbie Ray HAS to deserve some extra love just because he's LH! I don't believe a staring staff is defined by having a quality LH option, but it sure is nice to have that option in your rotation! While there are a few pluses and minuses here and there, Ray and Gausman have almost identical career numbers across the board! And they are the same age. My choice? Does it matter? The FO and Johnson know what they know and see what they see. I'd be happy with either of these two, but I would LOVE to see a quality LHSP option in the rotation so I'd like to see Ray as a choice here. It's the Stoman vs Odorizzi debate where I get confused. Stoman has been connected to the Twins for some time now. And I wouldn't have a problem with his signing. But he and Odorizzi...as I posted in a different thread previously... are VERY similar to one another. They are only 1yr apart age wise. And if you insist on using WAR, Stoman has a slight advantage. But virtually EVERYTHING in their career numbers mirror one another from ERA to WHIP to BB/SO numbers. There is little separation between any of their numbers, except Oddo does have a higher K rate. I have to lol a bit at the OP comment, sorry Seth, that Stoman is an "innings eater". He has averaged about 1 more out per over Odorizzi in their career. Just don't see how Oddo is limited as an IP per start pitcher but Stoman is an innings eater. Somehow, someway, in a mystery payroll for 2021, the Twins need to add at least one more quality arm to the rotation. This could happen via trade. And the trade with the Marlins OP is very, very interesting. The idea that so many seem to be down on Odorizzi is surprising to me. And I will absolutely bow to the Twins management to make the final determination. But seems to me Oddo, Stoman, Gausman and Ray are all excellent choices to compete with Pineda for the 3/4 spot in the rotation for 2021. My hope is, of course, they will pick the RIGHT ONE, and sign them for more than 1yr. Despite unknown financial situations, it seems to me any of these 4 could be great additions and may well appreciate some sort of financial security. And it would seem all 4 could be had for $10M TOPS for a 1yr. I'd like to hope the RIGHT ONE might consider the security of a reasonable 2-3yr deal.

To be fair, May isn't gone yet, despite being a FA. There are those who believe some team will offer him 2-3yrs at $5-6M per and he will be gone. And it only takes one team to like him that much for it to happen. But we are already seeing quality ML players being let go despite very reasonable $ numbers. I have reasonable hope and expectation...IMHO...that May's best offer will come in around $4M per. As much as I like him and want him back, as much as I believe at 31yo he has anotherlevel in him with just a bit more consistency, he's not a BIG TIME, PROVEN fireman, much less a closer. I think is a very good chance be comes back to the Twins still. As to your comment about Clippard, I'm sorry but I think you are very wrong in your statement about him. He is a strange enigma as a RP. He seems to have built a career of bouncing around the league on short term and reasonable contracts, but has put up very consistent numbers most of his career. In fact, his career numbers are borderline sparkling. But he's never really been the high velocity 9th inning guy who grabs the headlines. All he does is perform. I ABSOLUTELY want him back for around $3M per.

I think "regression" is the operative word here. I'm not sure I expect Wisler to put up the same numbers over a full season. If he threw 50-60 innings in 2021, with 2020 numbers guy would be an All Star. But the former top prospect is still relatively young for a RP and seemed to find real life with the Twins. Only partially in jest, I have commented previously, that he might be a young Romo. A guy who brings something very different and something very effective. Regression of some sort would be expected, but he could still prove to be very useful as well as effective. I'm less certain about Thielbar. He absolutely re-invented himself. I'm still surprised Detroit didn't keep him. And again, I'd expect regression as his 2020 numbers were just outstanding. But I'm not sure he won't still be useful going forward. But I have less belief/faith in him than Wisler.

I regret I wasn't able to watch live, but I listened twice, lol. The jist of what I heard is what I believe; without Cruz or similar type of bat, there is no reason for a DH only player. Now, 15 teams only, and some of them with a DH on hand, and some teams that will absolutely not spent $ on a 41yo DH...no matter how tempting...Cruz's market is not large, especially post 2020 financial implications. The smart move is a 1yr deal for $12M with the Twins and an option for less in 2022 that triggers with incentives around 120-130 games or an AB scenario. Possibly with a nice buyout. And if he performs well enough to warrant the 2nd year, then you are happy and hopeful and talking about a 1yr deal. And there is no such thing as a bad 1yr deal, right? You just can't lose BOTH Cruz and Rosario in a single year and trust in rookies only, no matter talent and potential. So again, everything just screams for a workable contract for Cruz back for at least one more season. Brantley or Bradley make sense. They make almost too much sense. And contract wise, either replaces Rosario and Cruz financially. But even in a depressed market, do we spend high $ for 3yrs for another player after signing Donaldson? Are we handcuffing ourselves financially too much the next few years? With or without Cruz, the only guy mentioned that makes sense is Pillar. He SO way too much. He is not great as a hitter. But he could be a perfect option as a decent hitter with power and speed as a great glove 4th OF who can cover for Buxton as well. He fits with Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. He also fits with Rooker because of his CF ability and depending how the roster turns out. Remember, we don't know how big the roster will be, much less a loss of both Cruz AND Rosario and trusting on top young talent. He should come relatively cheap. He fits. He can play for a contending team. I LIKE Cave and Wade for different reasons. But there is room to improve on both. And Pillar brings something different from each to build the 2021 roster. I think he's a perfect fit as a 4th OF who plays a lot for $2-3M. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I'm old enough and smart enough to know a few things and have a few connections in my life to have access to knowledge that few people do. The first is that Nicholas Tesla, and his associates, have knowledge for unlimited power potential that has been subterfuged by political power and and that an unknown and burried author by the name of Walter Olacandor has found a formula that equates to proven WS success in baseball. Media and MLB ownership has suppressed this research for decades since attempted publication in 1973. And Walter has spent the remaining years of his life working for TMZ and stringing together mad networks or string and and printed articles in his attic like a Hollywood writer working on the next Morgan Freeman thriller. I'm told he is dis-barred from the writers guild. But dark web research has informed me that his original thesis for a WS championship is based on a team that hits better and pitches better than the other team. So let us let fun and sarcasm lie and die there. The Twins have no curse the same way the Cubs and Bo-Sox had no curse. No matter how the WS turns out, it will remain an amazing diconomy how the wealthy battle the frugal. And our Twins remain somewhere in the middle of this battle of have and have not. I have no answers to payroll, or how to slay the beast. Of course, despite their payroll, the Dogers haven't had the answer since '88. But I DO BELIEVE in trying to build the best and deepest team you can. That is where you get your chance. 2020 didn't offer up the chance we hoped for. The FO has already stated they are looking to tweak some things. And no question $ play a part. But they do for everyone. But to blow things up and put on dark glasses is ridiculous. There is no secret formula. There is only building the best and most competitive team you can.

By no means an absolute, but something to consider. In anything approaching "normal" and in contention...even hopeful contention...the Twins payroll would probably rise 5-10% putting them at or close to $150M which has Belen about the ML mean the past couple of seasons. I say this not only due to some posters stating here there is obvious opportunity to NOT drop payroll and instead add a couple pieces to the roster as replacement options, much less keeping certain players, but because John and Aaron brought it up on their recent podcast. So in theory, NOT cutting spending actually accounts for a 10% cut already. It's a nice thought. It's a thought I wish the FO would embrace, cut their losses for 2020, keep the most important players they can, re-tool a few spots, and let it ride with the same payroll as this past season. And maybe they will surprise and it will happen. But I still expect everyone to cut, at least a little, and I'm still thinking the $125M mark is about right.

Not 100% convinced Hernandez, Profar, etc get $7M based on dropping payroll, losses, drops in the market even before covid, and a possible saturation of DFA. I'd rather spend a little more and keep May over Romo. (And I respect Romo and the job he's done). Just my humble opinion, I don't see May getting more than $5M/$6M tops. Why pay Romo $5M? Smyly or similar for the 5th rotation spot is intriguing. I've been thinking more along the lines of someone cheaper, more a flier to compete with Dobnak and other internal offers. You're right about some tough choices. The map you've put together here is smart. I'm just not so sure a couple of your figures aren't a little high.

Now I like these trade ideas more than others presented thus far. Youth and upside for the long haul. However, it could make them more expensive prospect-wise in a trade. And that's where you have to look at your own internal talent and speculate when and how good, how much prospect capital will it take to acquire a veteran trade target or young trade target while balancing the payroll and just spending $ on someone for the time being. In short, keep Odorizzi or sign Stroman and hold on to your young talent to start filling in various spots over the next season or two and have future trade options. But if we're going to trade young talent I'd like to acquire young talent back.

arby58 did the numbers so I don't have to, lol. Thanks! He absolutely has to be added back to the 40 man. He is 24yo and has ddcent stuff witb good results initially. There are/were 2 different scenarios taking place for his previous removal: 1] He's hurt worse than we know at this point and surgery remains a possibility. 2] In the midst of a short and poor 2020 the FO gambled he would slide through to create a roster opening. It was a gamble that worked.

NO disrespect to Cruz here! Love him and want him back! In fact, I see NO WAY the Twins have much of an offense in 2021 with BOTH Cruz AND Rosario gone. But the problem with all of this is speculation financially. The good news for the Twins is an competition for Cruz's services have been cut in half. Furthermore, I'd be willing to bet at least half the teams in the AL either have their DH in place, or a plan/rotation they are happy with, or are re-building and have no interest in a 40yr old DH. Cruz is absolutely worth $13-15M for a 1yr. I think an arguement could be made he's worth a 2nd year option for something like $10-12 with a decent buyout. But that's based on a normal season, which we don't know if we are going to have, much less coming off a financial loss season. So all the numbers I keep seeing appear to be based on a normal platform. NOT saying this will happen, but I could absolutely see the Twins signing Cruz to something like 1yr at $10-12M with a similar 2nd year option and a $3M buyout. Tell me I'm wrong, or who the competition is for more? in the reality we swim in today, this makes way too much sense for everyone involved.

First, another great podcast! Sorry I wasn't able to join in for this one. There are a couple key points that just make this exercise maddening! 1} of course is final payroll number. 2} what affect will 2020 and financial losses for the season combined with the unknown for 2021 mean to the FA market? And, obviously and of course, all of this is connected. It wasn't stated in the podcast, but I HAVE to believe the numbers discussed and posted here are based on normal parameters and a normal season. If not, then I have real questions about some of the salary numbers listed here. Has anyone tried to build a lineup without BOTH Cruz and Rosario and not felt their knees get weak? I understand we haven't had a podcast concerning OF/DH yet, but it's not hard to project. Sorry, but unless there is a really nice bat to be brought in cheaper than Cruz, how does the lineup possibly compensate for both? And again sorry, but with the NL now not having the DH for 2021, plus a depressed market, I don't see Cruz getting $14M. I just don't unless the Twins scoff at a payroll reduction and just keep status quo. (understanding possible pro-ration). Catcher: Avilla is probably a milb invite with a split contract. He might make the most sense. Vogt was the guy I wanted last offseason. $2M sounds right, OK and affordable to me. I'm OK with Castro as a second option for the same $2M. Otherwise, Avila with a split deal, coffee invite, and maybe an opt out clause. i DO very much like a veteran 3rd option for depth and experience. Makes so much sense we shouldn't even have to debate it/ Infield: Easy part is bringing back Adrianza as the #2 guy. We need someone who can bring a good glove anywhere he plays, especially SS. I see no better option than bringing him back at $1M+. How is he suddenly old at 31 when his glove was just as good last year as ever? Offensively, 2 decent, solid years followed by an awful year. 2020 is a curse. I'm betting a return offensively to something a little more decent in 2021. And he provides a fill-in for Gordon and maybe Lewis. The BIG discussion here is the PRIMARY utility guy. You know, the Marwin replacement who plays multiple positions and brings a solid bat as a 10th starter type. All the options presented make sense for different reasons. But I still question the $ values assigned. There is NO WAY I'm paying any of the guys listed $7+M per! Marwin was signed for better yearly average before the world went nuts. So again, can we assume the numbers being proposed are based on "normality"? If so, hell yeah! Sign the best option you like for $7-8M per! If the Twins bite their thumb at reductions and decide to stay status quo, PLEASE offer Hernandez or Profar or La Stella the kind of $ presented because they offer offense and versatility. But if we are talking reduction and payroll crunching, and despite an expected FA crunch we still can't afford those guys, I'm kind of excited about Cabrera as a veteran bat/player who can fill that 10th man roll on a 1yr deal for $2.5-3M. Like Adrianza, we are buying veteran experience and decent production on the cheap while allowing guys like Gordon, Blankenhorn and Lewis to get little more time

Makes you realize how important the taxi squad in St Paul was for the prospects there, and just how much of a setback no milb season has been for everyone else. To think Enlow would have seen AA last season, and that's understating it, and would be ready as a 22yr old for Rochester at some point in 2021, but is now looking to begin the season at AA AT BEST is regrettable. It's almost like everyone was injured for a season. Not only is there a chance the missing year could jeopardize someone's development, but I wonder if there could end up being a full year gap for the Twins and all teams in regard to system help.

The rub remains the same. The Twins need a quality 3/4 SP to team with Pineda. While the FO may find another Odorizzi steal or quality Maeda deal to add to the rotation, is it the best move? We gave up a great young BP arm for Maeda but it appears to have been a great move, especially considering cost control. But quality SP with cost control usually comes with a price. Got a little lucky with Maeda. Most of the time, you are giving up a couple top 20 prospects to do so. Are the Twins willing to do that right now with a wide open window and an influx of talent on the way to keep that window open? Especially with weird and unknown financial implications? Would you be willing to trade Larnach/Rooker and Enlow/Sands/Colina as a package for a quality 3/4 SP with control and hopeful upside? Or maybe payroll decisions would allow a FA and keep all the other options in place for promotion. Didn't we already see the FO is ready and willing to promote from within? Stroman makes TONS of sense for the Twins as a viable and possibly affordable option. And he's been tied to the Twins more than once over the past couple of seasons. But is he the right choice? Odorzzi...and I'm sorry I sound like a broken record...is only 1yr older. His QO in 2020 is something Stoman didn't fit. But it allowed Jake to almost double his 2019 salary. (I'm ignoring pro-rats for both guys). But as quality as Oddo is, despite his 2019 season, he was never going to get $25M+ that Wheeler got. I doubt, IMO, he would have received $20M. He got, at least close, to what he might have received if he chose the FA route. Right now, the playing field for these two is about equal. Look up their career numbers, 1yr different in age. If you believe in WAR, Stoman has the advantage, 14.7 to 12.4. Without going deep in to analytical numbers, Stroman has a slightly better career ERA, but lags slightly behind in WHIP AND BB/SO ratio with Odorizzi a bit over a SO per over Stoman. Stoman has averaged about 1/3 more IP per appearance, which is pretty negligible. So Stoman is an innings eater? Nope. Each of these guys are quality and each of them has warranted an All Star appearance, FWIW. Their career numbers are virtual mirrors of one another, with Odorizzi having a better WHIP and SO numbers. Oddo is also a known quantity within the system. I like Stoman. I'd be happy to have him. Injury to a torn calf vs a stiff back...even if it happened before 3yrs ago...I think I'd take the stiff back. And I absolutely believe these two are on equal footing when it comes to the crazy FA we will see. I'd take the known quantity of Odorizzi at this point.

I don't know. I wouldn't be opposed to Gray if the deal worked out OK from the Twins side. In other words, fair but no overpay. He's young enough that a new team, a new pitching coach, and being away from Coors Field could provide some upside. I think I'm still partial to the Musgrove trade idea with Pittsburgh. A year younger and just a feel the upside might be better. Just a bunch. NOT opposed to a trade option and the FO seems to have an eye for arm talent. But right now, I'm still sold on a healthy Odorizzi back.