DocBauer

The moves the FO has made for Kepler, Polanco and Sano thus far are smart and beneficial for both parties. Reminds me much of when Cleveland seemed ahead of the game years ago to keep their core together. I don't think that is any coincidence considering our current FO. And while the $ will almost certainly be different for Buxton and Berrios...especially Berrios...I see them working the same platform. I love Arraez. He's still young enough I can still see some more POP coming in to his game, even if double digit HR totals are not a norm. What's wrong with 30+ doubles ever year with his hit and OB Numbers? Despite him being so young in his career, I don't think the Carew and Gwynn comps are so abstract. I also feel his defense is better than advertised. I don't watch every game available, but I watch a lot. Especially the last 2 years. Arraez was tossed in to LF and basically told to touch the wall and then take a certain number of steps in. Let's just say he was "credible". He was asked to play 3B and a few innings at SS and was again, "credible". In case you misunderstood, "credible" means you didn't absolutely stink or embarrass yourself. And there's something to be said for that, even at the highest level. We often become jaded about euphemisms like someone being a "ballplayer". But who and when was that decided as being a bad thing? Because somewhere along the line that term became regulated to nothing more than a scrappy utility type? When and how and why? Tell me Trout isn't a "ballplayer". Tell me Ballinger isn't a "ballplayer". Arraez is a "ballplayer" meaning he can not only hit, but he has good instincts on how to play the game. It means you can give him a glove and toss him out in the field and just say: "do the best you can". And he's done that thus far in his career. Hell, he played with a bad knee most of 2020 and hit well but everyone questions his defense and versatility. Except, he was at least OK wherever they tossed him out in 2019, unfair as it may have been. Kid IS a "ballplayer". All of this hyperbole, and the logic of the OP, there are other extensions more immediate than Arraez. There is enough control to warrant a wait until next year.

The truth is Buxton has never been and never will bet he high AVG/OB speed guy we originally envisioned him being. So what?! I know it's a completely unfair comparison, but that's what Puckett was supposed to be and was initially before his power emerged. Again, unfair comp, but there is a parallel there to consider. Buxton has been emerging as a real XB power threat who legs stuff out and can still steal a base while providing special defense. Doesn't mean he doesn't have room to improve aspects of hitting, contact, OB, etc. But we've seen what he is capable of the last couple of years. Unfortunately, the injury history is the very large elephant in the room. And right now, I can't give you a single example from memory of a player or pitcher that dealt with a number of early injuries before suddenly getting healthy except maybe Hunter. But I know they are out there. (I've sometimes referenced Robert Smith from the Vikings, but different sport entirely). In fairness to Buck, without being dismissive, some of his injuries have been "fluke-ish" in nature. And no way a FB to the helmet at the end of 2020 was on him. To the Twins credit, they have worked hard with him on everything from positioning to jumping for balls to helping him realize that sometimes running in to a wall at 26mph or laying out for an incredible catch may not be best for him or the team in the short as well as long term. To Byron's credit, he seems to be listening and learning. Also to his credit, he's been working hard the last couple of years to build muscle and strength for his body. The simple fact is, athlete or not, bodies grow and mature differently. He was a long, lithe speed demon initially but may have still been growing in to his frame in his early 20's. While losing little to no speed, he's really filled out his frame the past couple of years. Still only 27yo and already a difference maker when on the field, is he just ready to start reaching his prime both performance wise and physically? Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I think I'd take that bet. I am fine with Kepler as a fill-in at CF here and there. He'd probably start there for some teams. He's not great, but he's good. While his offense has thus far been "streaky", unfortunately, I was impressed with Cave defensively last year. He seemed to be much more sure of himself and his reads and quit trying to make amazing plays that would have him diving for balls out of his reach. I've gone from hopeful on Celestino to a believer. Whether a 4th OF or future replacement for Buxton, I think he's going to make it. And there are a few others behind him that have a real shot and provide depth in the system for sure. Still hopeful that the Tigers aren't going to find a way to keep Badoo and he will be returned. I'm in favor of an extension for Buck, even though there is risk involved. Much like Berrios, same age but different endurance situation, I feel Buxton may just be hitting the time and place where he's ready to take the next step. And I'd hate to risk being late to that dance.

I have real hope that Blankenhorn is going to be a valuable role player at several positions, hit decently, and bring some bench power. Just not convinced on the "hit" tool yet. Misael Urbina should maybe be on the list despite his youth. You want a dark horse candidate? Spencer Steer. His numbers improved across the board every year in college and he had a nice debut season.

Probably too close to Harmon, unless you allow some homage to be paid, but: Killer K

I'm a big Polanco fan. I believe he will adapt to 2B very well and that his offense will return with his ankle now, supposedly, fixed this time. But I would make this deal in a heartbeat. Which means it probably isn't viable. Matt, I fully appreciate your well thought out arguements as stated. Your points and proposal are well thought out and well argued. But they just aren't practical. The Reds could use Polanco at SS in their re-tool short term and then shift him as the Twins are doing. The collection of draft picks the Reds would have helps re-stock their system, but seems more like a re-build than a re-load, which is counter to most of your arguement. Assuming the Reds are even interested in trading Castillo, it would take Polanco, one of Duran-Balazovic-Canterino and then one of Kirilloff or Larnach. I know that if I were them that's what I'd be asking for. Could the Twins afford to do that without decimating their system and future? Absolutely. But it's a steep price to pay, and a bit risky, with Rosario gone, Cruz on what is probably his final year and 3 rotation pieces with expiring contracts. On my own personal soapbox, I'm just not concerned about some playoff jinx and poor run. Virtually every single player, manager, coach and FO personnel have nothing to with that streak except for a couple recent losses. And I couldn't give a ×#$! about the Yankees or anyone's perspective on them even from respected media. The Twins are a very good team that has been re-tooled top to bottom and inside out over the past few years. And over the next couple of seasons, we are going to see some re-tooling on the fly both in the lineup and the pitching staff. If the Reds would so this, great! Otherwise, I like what I see right now. Talk to me again mid-season if there are injuries, poor performance or surprise opportunity to add.

A wonderful perspective in to off the field lives of players and their families. And all three ladies were absolutely engaging and charming. Looks like you had a lot of fun with this Seth, and I found myself smiling often while listening. Positively one of the best Twins interviews that you have done! Thank you.

I'm interested in seeing part 2 in regard to the proposed trade scenario presented. Please understand I'm not opposed to the Twins trading for a high end pitcher or player. Nor do I mean to dismiss the talent of Castillo in any way. But forgetting for a moment whether the Reds even WANT to consider moving him, or any potential return they may receive back, I'm just trying to take a mile in the sky look at this idea. 1] Maeda is a very good pitcher who seems to have gotten better. Berrios is even more talented overall, hasn't hit a ceiling yet we all hope for, and is just approaching the ideal age of experience vs stuff. There are 3 other guys behind those 2 and some interesting depth and options to make this a potentially excellent rotation. Does 1 guy deliver the goods enough with that being said pitching every 5th day? 2] Is a trade for Castillo about a potential short series post season or making the post season? There is a difference. Making it is #1. After that, you never know what will happen. Think the Twins in '87 and the Rays last year. Also think the Dogers and years of futility making the playoffs only to lose. 3] Right now, before the season even begins, EVERY team is scribbles on paper. Even the FO running teams know this. The Twins are one of the best teams in all MLB right now, and have been the last 2yrs. Barring horrific seasons or cataclysmic injuries, they could almost stumble to 90 wins. They have built or re-built a system over the past 3yrs that is starting to produce some exciting young talent that is getting really close to contributing and maintaining an open window and "sustainability" if not improving on the product we've already seen. So, does one SP make THAT much of a difference in the scheme of things vs what is given up for him? Not saying yes or no. I'd love to have Castillo. I'm just asking?

Guess I'm a little later to this party than intended, but at the same time, haven't we already been her 2 or 3 or 4 times already? I WANT Kirilloff playing daily and mashing in LF/1B/RF on occasion, etc. I completely believe he is going to be a good to great hitter with solid OB numbers and probably crank somewhere around 60 XB every year. On a related note, I think Larnach is going to be the same and that Rooker can be a very nice ballplayer and have a good career as well, though he may lag behind defensively. I also think all 3 have a future, especially when we look at 2022 and beyond. From all reports he was impressive in St Paul last year and showed real growth despite not playing a normal season. And his first hit and sliding catch in the playoff loss to Houston was exciting. But we have to remember he's still never had a single game played at the AAA level and was in that playoff game because the Twins were short of bodies. YES, they believe in him enough to give him that opportunity, but he's not there if not for injury. And that doesn't take away anything from his ability or potential. Even with a season missed due to TJ surgery, had 2020 been a normal, full season, he very easily could have made his ML debut. But that's not the reality of what happened. Despite secondary sites, coaching, simulated games, etc, every single milb player lost a year of normal play and development. IMO, this FO and coaching staff are not looking to play service time games. They are looking to build the best roster they can with the idea of WINNING. If Kirilloff looks fine both offensively and defensively and appears ready, he probably opens with the club. But service time arguement be damned, there are real and logical and logistical reasons for him not to. There is a real arguement to be made that him getting a little more time to hone a few things and ramp up are a positive. For that matter, what did Rooker display in his career thus far and his SSS last year to indicate he doesn't deserve a shot at some playing time? I can easily see a scenario where AK opens 2021. But I can also see viable reasons for Rooker and Cave, maybe Arraez also, sharing LF come opening day from a purely baseball and roster situation. Personally, I disagree with Bonnes's thoughts that they will make an early decision on this. With about 2 1/2 weeks to go, I'd argue the best thing they could do for AK AND the roster is to let Kirilloff stick around for as long as possible for development and competition. Baldelli and his staff are going to make what they believe is the right decision, whichever way it goes. And I don't believe it will bave anything more to do than simply putting the best initial roster together.

IMO, should be Arrez when he plays. Especially if Donaldson is going to remain in the 2 spot. I like Polanco as an alternate if he's back to his old self. I appreciate the BOOM Kepler can bring to the spot, but I think his LH power needs to hit lower.

Maeda looking like how he finished last season. I have no problem with Colome. I like him. The Dirty Sox let him go because La Russa wants a traditional closer. Still say Robles just being his normal self is a key to the pen. In regards to Oddo, I wanted him back. I thought it was a given for so many reasons. I thought he and Pineda would give the team a tremendous 3-4 punch. But everything I have heard and read is he wanted a longer and greater $ value than the Twins were willing to offer. Good for him. And if he had been willing to go 1yr or 2yr we might have found a match. But Happ for 1yr would seem to equalize things with some really nice options being ready or almost ready. And there is depth. There is imminent potential. I don't feel we are at a disadvantage simply because we didn't keep Oddo. There's just too much coming up really soon and on hand to stress the rotation for 2021. I'd like to have Oddo. For 2021, I still like what we have.

He has to show more than what he's thrown thus far. (Yes it's early). He's also older than Wisler. Just because we are talking slider-centric doesn't mean he's directly comparable to Wisler. In fact, I would say Anderson and Hamilton are better comps. They are closer in age and pure stuff IMO. The primary difference being Sparkman has been a starter in the past and I'm not sure either Anderson or Hamilton have ever been such. But should that matter? Both Anderson and Hamilton appear to be better comps. Either, or both, could contribute this year. We traded for Anderson and he has potential, as well as being on the 40 man. But I keep reflecting on Hamilton and what his status was before an accident and a volatile ball to his face tbat further de-railed his potential. Over the last several months, he FINALLY is working for ONE team. And that is important. If there is any chance for him to find himself, there is no more waiver wire B.S.. He gets to work now with an established team. A competitive team with a new and progressive coaching structure. His arm seems to be healthy. Can he get over the mental hump of what he has had to endure? I'd like to think that he can being part of this organization. Not saying Sparkman doesn't have a shot. But these other 2 are much more comparable, IMO, based on youth and stuff.

I'm a little late to the party but need to comment. A key quote from the OP is: "Before 2017, when the soon-to-be-chronic issue first emerged, (his calf issues obviously), the slugger had made three straight All-Star teams and been a top 10 MVP finisher in four straight years." Go ahead and re-read that quote. His 2017 and 2018 seasons get largely washed out due to repeated injury dealing with his calf muscles. (To be honest, I'm not certain if it's both or one leg). It stinks, but injuries of various sorts happen. He then adopts a new training routine with the help of a specialist, from Minnesota, and has a tremendous rebound 2019 in Atlanta. Then he signs with the Twins. Now, we all know 2020 was a bizarre season in the world of MLB. I was grateful to have baseball, even an abbreviated version, and enjoyed every moment. But we saw an odd display of career seasons, split season's of success and failure, and some downright ugly years. And I don't mean just the Twins, but all across MLB. So coming in to 2021 there is element of "I don't know" about a lot of things. This includes Donaldson. If 2020 had somehow been normal, with a said normal ST ramping up to the regular season, does Donaldson have a healthy and great season like he had in 2019? We don't know. I'm sure he continued to work out and do what he could to be ready, but did the short ramp up affect him? If there was more time available, could he have re-habbed and been just fine after? The answer remains the same, we don't know. Even though EVERY team was affected by 2020 in different ways, including injuries, speaking solely of the Twins, they were on a 100 win pace until a small slump had them finishing at around a 96 win finish. This despite injuries to Polanco, Arraez, Garver and others along with un-even season's. Not 100% sure I can call Donaldson's issue "chronic" at this point after 2019 and the weird season that was 2020. Does he warrant some caution and continued maintenance in regard to routine and preparation? Absolutely! But so do a large number of athletes, if not most. IMO, 2020 is a mulligan for just about everyone who had a bad year. Look no further than FA BP addition Robles who has been a fine RP for his career until 2020. Some look away from 2020 and some focus on it. The Twins are being smart to bring Donaldson along slowly. But they are doing the same thing most teams do with established veteran players. Get them there time, but they know at this point how to get ready. Yes, I'm an optomist, but I also think I'm a realist. I will be surprised if "doomsayers" don't look up recipes for crow before the year is done in regard to Donaldson. As for the depth issue, I'm focused more on the future. My gut feeling is Blankenhorn has a chance to be a decent 5 position role player with a decent bat that provides power. IF he can settle down defensively, he has a shot to be the next 3B. Were I a betting man, my money would be on Miranda 2yrs from now. I get Cavaco as a very young and athletic option who continues to grow physically and might become a great 3B option in a few years. The dark horse, and it pains me to describe him as that, is Wander Javier. STILL only 22yr old, he is no where near the 165lb teenager listed on his milb profile. In fact, I've long thought that part of his injury situation may have been him growing in to his body. IF he can stay healthy now...and he is one of the Twins prospects hurt most by the missing 2020 season...I could absolutely see him begin to mature as a hitter and be in the 3B mix in a few years.

My response is no. But I like what they do have.

Rooker, a talented and younger prospect, should get the selection before Garlik initially. Not sure when Braxton's opt out takes place. Typically it's a month or so in the season from what I've seen in the past. I'd really like to see him stick around for a while. Tons of talent and still potential, but a good week vs a poor past few seasons doesn't put him above Cave. Won't find a bigger fan for Thorpe and Dobnak than right here, but not sure there is room for both. But the obvious caveat is the health of Thielbar. Really hope Thorpe gets that 4th option year for both team and player. I am a HUGE believer in Kirilloff and his future. I think he's going to be a hitting STUD with decent defense regardless of final spot. But regardless it's up to him to earn his spot. And he can. But with no games above AA except for his one playoff game experience when injury practically forced a promotion, I'm still flabbergasted in regard to all the angst that he might spend a little time at St Paul to better transition.

I'm a sucker as a fan for LH pitchers and the various prosoects that have been signed from Down Under. So no big surprise I've been following Thorpe closely for years and rooting for him. I saw glimpses of his potential late in 2019 and was excited for him in 2020. So you can imagine my disappointment when things unfolded as they did. Because of how last season went, I think a lot of people forget how good he looked before injury and illness wiped out 2 full seasons, and just how good he looked when he came back. We may never know the ful story of what happened to him last year, and maybe it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is how he got his head and body RIGHT again. Did he really gain 30lbs? I doubt it. I believe he re-gained weight he lost and then packed on a little more muscle with his new-found dedication. Regardless, good for him! I really hope he gets tbat 4th option year. Not just for the Twins and roster flexibility, but because it allows him a more linear progression of development in 2021 to perform and be sent back and brought back again if and when he just needs a re-fresher. A 4th option is a blessing for both team and player.

So if things work out this summer, my dad and I are planning on a "double header" where we get a game in ST Paul and Target Field. Also hoping to catch the Kernals at some point. And living here in Omaha, really Excited to catch the Saints here as well. So fans in general is kind of a big deal. But so is number of fans.

Heard about the opening schedule in April and glanced at it just now. It's very different than what we've seen before. The Twins play the Brewers on April first, have an off day, then play 6 straight games. After a 2nd consecutive Friday off, they then play 13 consecutive days. And there is where there could be an issue. But with 3 1/2 weeks left in ST, the couple early days off to stagger the rotation slightly, I'd like to believe the rotation could function normally during that crazy 13 game stretch. In fact, were Happ to be the "5th" rotation option he could throw on the side and pitch with a full 5 days rest between his 1st 2 starts. So unless there is some injury or setback, I think the rotation could be managed those first few weeks without having to go to a 6 man rotation. Things seem to normalize after that and I really dislike going with a 14 man staff and shorten the bench. (You might refer to my post about a larger roster post and comment if you haven't already). Considering how well the Twins adapted in 2020 with injuries I'd like to think they can stagger things well enough during the first 3 weeks with their chosen rotation and an 8 man pen that we would be OK.

Fully appreciate your arguement. But, respectfully, I'm going to disagree. You're right he is a very good pitcher. And you're also right he hasn't reached the mythical true ACE status. And he may never do that. But year to year, you have to appreciate there are only a handful of truly dominate ACE pitchers. But there is a difference from being a quality #1 SP vs being that special ACE. In all my years watching baseball I have seen a handful of the Clemons or Blyleven or Ryan or Hernandez types. Some were studs from day one. Many flamed out before reaching late 20's or 30. Most were good or even very good before stuff and experience, maybe a new team and coach, took them to a different level. Only a few were THAT GUY for YEARS. I think about Stieb and Key from Toronto. I think about Randy Johnson who was very good but not what he became until his late 20's. Despite 1 great season with Pittsburg, Cole never found his greatness until later when he went to Houston. My point is Berrios may never be that GUY, but you very seldom draft or sign an international FA who is that very special #1. Most need time to harness their stuff, learn their craft, and turn in to something special. Again, Berrios may never reach that special level, but he's already good. And he's at just the right age at this time where he COULD be ready to explode in to a true #1, MAYBE a true ACE. I'd rather hedge my investment at this point from what we've seen and what could be rather than risking losing what we already have and what could be.

I'm commenting on this AFTER commenting on the recent Buxton extension idea, so forgive any repetition. The CBA could blow up how things are negotiated contract wise in the future, of course. And I don't want this to sound pro-ownership, because I'm not in either camp, but I think the financial world of MLB has changed even without the whole bizarre covid situation. But analytics are not just part of the on the field product any longer, they are part of the financial structure. While there are, and always will be healthy players who hit their ceilings early and demand huge $ returns, teams are far less likely to hand out massive and long term deals any longer with the return being based on the first few years of a massive deal while "over paying" the final years. Even in the crazy world of professional sports and dollars, there is a wall to be run in to of dimished returns. While the actual yearly $ is variable, I think the types of contracts signed with Polanco, Kepler, Sano and "proposed" by John in his Buxton article may be the new way for teams and players to find fair and common ground. Fair GUARANTEED $ with financial security that exists regardless of production or injury while still allowing for FA around age 30+. Yes, a player could explode and be "underpaid" as a result, but that is also the equitable tradeoff for their guaranteed earnings. Teams are risking floors vs ceilings, much less regression or injury, but hedging production vs cost as well as maintaining roster stability. Berrios is, agreed, in uncharted waters as there simply may not be an adequate comp for his situation. He's very good, young, talented, been a stalwart, and has potential to be even better. In fact, he's just coming to the age where I have always stated experience and talent meet when a pitcher achieves his peak value. Possibly even the rare ACE status that so many yearn for. But despite all he has done, there are at least SOME questions surrounding his full season endurance. That might have been answered in 2020, had it been a normal year and because he began to make some training adjustments to finish 2019 stronger, but it didn't turn out that way. He's never had a significant injury. Hopefully, he never will. I applaud Jose's work ethic, determination and belief in himself. I'm a fan/believer who thinks we haven't seen the best of him yet. And I'm sure there is a part of him, beyond just loving playing, that would like to earn $200M+ in his career. But he also strikes me as an intelligent young man who KNOWS he could, unfortunately, have an injury tomorrow or just never achieve the financial status he might hope for, for whatever reason. And 5yrs of a GUARANTEED $100M+ and still be a FA at age 31 would have to give him pause, IMO. Be gains incredible security for he and his family, while still betting on his future and a second major deal at a still young age. The devil is in the details that I won't get in to here. But between salary, bonuses, etc, 5yrs and $100M is something I'd really like to see both sides as being very fair and just get it done.

I really like this idea. There is mutual and equal risk/reward for both sides. Buxton is protected from further injury lowering his potential earnings while still gaining a great deal of financial security. Meanwhile, the Twins are betting he will be healthy enough to earn that $ and perhaps prove to be a bargain. The recent contracts with Polanco, Kepler, Sano and this idea with Buxton is very forwarding thinking and may be the "new way" contracts will work in today's game. Of course, a new CBA may blow this idea completely up. And there will always be guys who put up insane numbers and are looking for and probably worth max dollars. And there will always be those who want to bet on themselves. But in a new financial world where teams no longer wish to hand out huge dollar values over 6-7+yr term deals...really only gaining a reward in production the first few seasons...this may be the smart play most often for both sides.

NOT going to freak out about Robles at this point. Just a veteran getting stretched out and working on a few things. We should all know this by now. Deliberately not going to debate AK at this point. His future is BRIGHT! Frankly, tired of talking about him. Can't we just let things play out? I don't care it was some B.S. appearance in a ST game, Padulo will NEVER forget the time he got to be on base. KUDOS to Rocco for that!

Excited for the potential of this kid NEXT year. Why does every prospect have to be the "next" whoever? Oh yeah, we want the next future MVP and Cy young to debut at 21yo. I lost the memo. How about this talented kid gets a chance to play a full season of ball and work forward and get called up when even close to ready?

A painful reflection...pun intended...of history of some top prospects having to overcome injury. I hate to sound flippant in any way regarding Lewis's injury, but I'm just not worried about his recovery. I have complete faith in his youth, modern medicine and recovery, as well as his athleticism and attitude. What stinks is the timing of his injury in regard to already missing a milb 2020 season, despite his participation and hopeful/reported improvements at St Paul last year. I truly think he's going to be OK, but set back a full season. Twins history, however, I think most of us will forever wonder how good Kubel and Liriano may have been without a pair of rather devastating injuries. For that matter, if you really want to go down a dark path, why does it seem the Twins endured more concussion injuries to top players more than anyone else? Koskie was pretty special until his. Both of the M&M boys saw their careers curtailed. Oh what might have been without a couple of those unfortunate injuries. I just don't believe in curses, even though a part of me has the "of course, Minnesota fan" angst that seems to be built in being a fan. But I do believe "bad luck" just happens sometimes. But Sano's injury, Arraez and Kirilloff the same, has not come back to derail their careers. I expect the same for Lewis.

I tend to agree. The power is there and so is the sweet swing. I call a mulligan first a lot of guys concerning 2020

While I can see several variations to the daily lineup...and we will because Rocco mixes it up often...its time for Max and his power to slide down to a "better" RBI slot with his XB power. Arraez and Polanco should/could be at the top of the order based on past history of just being good hitters, decent OB, and good bat control with few SO. Now, I like Arraez a little better, but both can do the job well, IMO. Personally I'd like to see both at the top of the order most days and have Donaldson move down from the 2 hole. The caveat being just how many days will BOTH be in the lineup? And also, how much do they like Donaldson hitting 2nd, and how much does he really WANT to hit there? I want/believe in having an OB table setter of some sort ahead of the best bats, even in what could/should still be a very deep lineup. That brings us back to a combination of Arraez and Polanco in the #1 spot. If Donaldson hits #2, there are arguements to be made for Cruz and Kepler in the 3-4 spots either way. Sano probably plugs in at #5. An interesting thought brought up on a recent Gleeman/Geek podcast was Kirilloff hitting between Donaldson and Cruz if Kepler continues to bat #1. Again, interesting. But I'd rather see him face less pressure as a rookie hitting 6th or so. Still confused and wondering about Arraez playing at least SOME LF despite rumors they aren't really looking at him there. I think that's a mistake as you need/want him in the lineup most days batting leadoff.