twinsfan34

Is it starting from scratch for 2014 or are prospects already adopted (e.g. grandfathered from 2013 adoption)?

My View of Reality/Optimism 1. I agree with this - I think the moves they made were well with reason. 2. The cuts for the Roster were the right moves - Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, and Pinto all made the roster. Those are top 100 propects from last year and Pinto (many of this year's top 100). All seemingly will end up being able to make contributions as starters. And likely could going into 2015, 2016, and beyond. 3. Just how good will those 4 guys be? What if we got, even 2 WAR out of each of them? That's 8 Wins...how many wins did they replace (subtract that value)...then add the Twins pitchers (Nolasco, Hughes)...again, WAR added, WAR replaced. I haven't been to Ft. Myers...I don't know the attitude part. Tigers are getting old...some injuries, new contracts might affect Scherzer's attitude as they have money it seems for Cabrera, but not for him? Indians lost Ubaldo Jimenez...and everything went right for them last year to win 92 games. Royals are getting better...and honestly, I'm happy for them. White Sox...I don't know what to expect. They keep adding power bats. Twins K/9 numbers will go up...as long as we can keep the HR/9 down, we probably can win some games there. 4. The minor leagues...how many 'new developments' or pleasant surprises did we have from our system last year? Well, how much better will those guys do? AND how about the class of 2013 and our guys that are 17, 18, 19 years old. If some of them start killing A/A+ and knocking on the all of AA ball. That's hope. I live in Texas...and even when I lived in MN...I was never a big attend the games in person guy. I attended 3-8 games a year on average. I watched parts of 100 games...and read every boxscore. I'll still follow the Twins. I make at least one if not both of the series they play down here in Texas for at least 2 of the 3 games each series. I don't see much of that changing for me. I admit, I'm more of a fair weather fan of the Vikings and the Timberwolves. As when they suck, I don't really watch them much. Timberwolves are especially tough to watch...I think Basketball quality in general is down, but that's another post. I think the Twins made good moves this year with what was in front of them. Looking forward to seeing the 4 young guys play.

Here's what MiLB.TV offers... Rochester is included...but none of the Twins other affiliates. http://www.milb.com/milb/multimedia/milbtv.jsp#teams EDIT: I should re-state. Those are home games - so you may still see some New Britain or possible Ft. Myers games as long as they are the away opponent for the home teams listed, as I understand it.

There's so many picks in the 10-30 picks there I'd love to have. Wish we could trade back from the #5 to get 2 picks in that range. Willi...I'd take the tailspinning Rodon or a tailspinning Koleck. Personally, I don't like Hoffman at all in the 1st RD. Or the 2nd for that matter.

Great post, I had been monitoring all the Twins affiliates for their rosters but forgot the past few days. What I find interesting is that Engelb Vielma is the only SS (or only one listed). He didn't hit RK that well, but looks like he's going to get all the playing time possible to increase that hit tool. It also makes me wonder about A+ concerning the SS position, which also affects AA. I get the feeling the Twins want to see, and for good reason, if Jorge Polanco can play SS. Ft. Myers had Aderlin Mejia, who hit .308 (no power though) in 78 games at SS - he did rather well. He got the position due to an injury I heard and it was expected to be short term, but he just kept hitting. Ft Myers also has Levi Michael on the roster, our 1st RD draft pick from 2011. He's a college player running out of time. Then you don't see Nick Goodrum on the Cedar Rapids roster...so he's got to be at A+ or higher too. He only hit .260 at Cedar Rapids last year. Any guesses how A+ and AA get filled out at the SS position? AA - Aderlin Mejia? Levi Michael? A+ - Jorge Polanco Niko Goodrum? And this is why, if it's not guaranteed already, that Danny Santana has to be at AAA. Suddenly, the SS position for the Twins is a position of interest as is pitching - both positions that are were very weak at the MLB level in 2013, giving some hope as early as 2015. On Chad Christensen, yes he can play OF as well, but then who plays 3B - this is where I was thinking (maybe more hoping than thinking) Amaurys Minier would make the team as I had no idea who plays 3B for them - and this revealed roster - I feel - still doesn't answer that question. Unless they have high hopes for Christensen at 3B and for that 3rd OF (Pineda - no idea who this guy is).

Any of you guys insider members? I am, but I can't seem to find Keith Law's top 15 Twins list. I see where it casually mentions "#11 Engelb Vielma and #13 Danny Santana" but not the others who round out his top 15. Would appreciate the link if anyone has it. Thanks.

Seth, will you be putting together an organizational depth chart? Or have you? I realize, we all can wait until April 4th and the affiliate websites should have the rosters by then.

Pretty crazy. As much as he's making, if things were to continue to play out as they are, he's likely leaving a lot of money on the table in place of more money than he'd normally make the next 3 seasons.

In this Edition of 2013 College Pitchers... There were 132 college pitchers taken in the 2013 Rule IV MLB Draft. Five were injured and never had a chance to pitch in MLB (e.g. Manea, Stanek, etc), leaving 127 eligible pitchers to be placed among the minor league affiliates. 89 of them pitched in A- or higher last year. So, in the same year college pitchers were drafted, about 69% pitched in A- or higher. 2 in 3 of those drafted in the 1st-10th RD. Could we apply this further? Perhaps to where the Twins college pitchers should land in their 1st full season of pro ball? e.g. the 2012 college pitchers class (1st-10th RD) 1 pitcher, Josh Conway of the Cubs, has been injured and has yet to accumulate a minor league stat, leaving 110 pitchers meeting the criteria. So 87% were at A or higher. 51% at A+ or higher - applicable to the Twins as we don't have an 'A' club - not sure which/how they (TBC) classified "A" Source: Thebaseballcube.com Used: MS Excel 2007

I'm pretty happy about these decisions. The Bartlett thing, I think I get. You know what Presley is...and well, if Florimon is healthy or whatever - even worse than normal, Bartlett is an option there. So I get that. He can probably adapt to any of the positions fairly well. And a 'utility' guy isn't a guy getting a lot of at bats - so no big deal. Just glad they kept the kids up on the club. Hicks, Arcia, Colabello, and Gibson - when it seemed at times like any one of them may not make it.

Dear God...to even utter the world 'blocked' in consideration of those two guys...oye! I'm with the crew Arcia has to play and play in MLB everyday he can. And overall...like this, until those on the higher end prove they can't cut it. To which Arcia would really have to tank for that. Arcia > Colabello > Parmalee > Kubel

Afraid of "losing Parmalee"....what are we losing again? I hope that's only rumblings...vs actually happening. And we're sending down Arcia...to make room for that? Oye.

Where's the link for this? Thx.

Given that Rohlfing is going down. My feeling is Bartlett has to go...just hasn't done anything and the 2 years away. Just can't see it. Not much upside here. If he takes the AAA demotion, hits .320+ bring him back up in May. I like Thielbar over Diamond. Colabello has to stay, one of the best bats we have. No one is locking down the DH or LF jobs, problem is he's similar to Willingham, but can play 1B. My best is Willingham hits decently well, any injuries to teams needing a guy, he's deal for a Sulburan (for Butera) like prospect as soon as it's available. Parmalee is the other problem, in that he's a lot like Kubel. But Parmalee can play some 1B. In both cases, Colabello and Parmalee aren't as good as Willingham and Kubel respective to right now. But are younger, offer more potential, and can play more positions respectively. Keeping both of them on the roster might tell a bit of the direction the Twins will be going in 2015. They'd likely want to figure out if Colabello and Parmalee have any future with the Twins this year. 2015 will offer the likes of Vargas at 1B/DH and maybe Buxton in the OF which could squeeze any superfluous room. If Gardy's a platoon guy this year, he'll keep the some LH/RH options. Colabello makes sense over Presley/Kubel as we already have quite a few LH hitters with Hicks and Arcia. Kinda see Presley as expendable if they like Hicks. Presley's glove isn't that great. It's better than the others, however everyone else: Willingham, Arcia, Kubel, Colabello offers more bat than Presley. All in all, kind of a crapshoot I guess. I do think Hicks won the position though...after Rob Anthony wanted someone to step up. Albeit, he's had a few Puig like moments on the basepaths.

I don't think those projections are anything 'unusual'...as your question was that. The difference with some is they feel he won't get there. Keith Law feels he will. I do too. Torii took a little time to turn around, as did Gomez. Hicks is 24 this year. Hunter was 25 before he finally 'got it'...and Gomez was 26 before he hit .260 for a season with "some" plate discipline. And finally enjoying a great season at 27. So Hicks...has this year...to do basically not much, and he'd still be on par to meet Hunter's production in 2016. And another 2 more years...to get to where Gomez is. Do I think he makes it? Absolutely.

In the running for a GG each year defensively. He'll never be a leadoff hitter for long in this organization with Buxton's permanence in MLB probably starting in 2016, if not sometime in 2015. He was awful last year and he had 8 HR and 9 SB (12 tries). Imagine if he got a little more good contact...that's 12-13 HR for that half season, so I wouldn't have a problem saying he could have seasons that land in the 20-26 HR range as well as that many SB, but tailoring off as he gets older and bigger (he put on some muscle/weight this past off-season). Average...anywhere from .260-270ish. I guess, that fits Thrylos description, aka Torii Hunter/Carlos Gomez. Not as good of an arm as Gomez, not as good of a stick as Hunter, more BB's that both of them combined.

I don't have as much hope for May. But I think Meyer could be peak at a 140-155 ERA+, that is the 3.20 ERA with lots of strikeouts. But we'll see. I'm no scout. Revere had as low grade power as there is in MLB and his arm wasn't much different. Speed and defensive range. I'm not sure what they saw in May, maybe thought they could straighten out his command and he'd be a #4? We didn't give up a lot and based on the ascension of Aaron Hicks, probably thought Revere was expendable and worth the risk to acquire an arm.

I think there should be some context to 'platoon'...if you're a 88 to 92 Win team or in that 'range', then platoon is maybe something you should consider (Read: You should!). If you're a 66 win team, I would think your hope is to try to find guys who can hit both RHP/LHP. There's only so much room for platoon with a team. If MLB had a rule for team with less than .500 records could have say, 40 guys on the MLB traveling team...then platoon away for a competitive advantage. But the Twins, would have to platoon...what...6 positions? So, as someone else said up top. Hicks (or anyone else in a similar level) need to hit both sides. Is he a regular or not? that's the question. Find the regulars. But platoon in the sense of some day to day matchups...or a 7th innning, put the LH bat in against the lights out RH reliever, absolutely.

My thinking is along these lines too. I think Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, Pinto, etc should start in MLB, assuming they all start. I would put Kubel, Bartlett, and any of the poorly performing fringe-make-the-roster types in AAA. Why? This seems backwards... Well, here me out. Many teams try the veterans out in MLB and if they stink, well honestly you lost good development time for the rookies and just plain put a poor product on the field. If the rookies rake in AAA, it's still not MLB. So you haven't really solved anything, A LOT of guys rake AAA, but not MLB. Objective: if a hitter, Hit MLB, or if a pitcher, beat MLB hitters. If the rookies don't rake at MLB, well, they have data points to go back to AAA to work on. The opposite doesn't really work. Raking at AAA doesn't matter and if the veterans suck at MLB, that's wasted time/opportunity and learning experience (actually facing MLB pitching/hitting) for the young guys. It's rather simple logic and I've seen many times where teams tried old/aging veterans for 1-2 months that hit .220 and struck out 40% of the time or pitchers who brought BP to MLB. It's not productive. This is especially in Hicks' case. He needs to be the opening day CF and play. If he doesn't do well, he can go to AAA. But Bartlett, Kubel, etc...they need to rake now (they haven't) to get a MLB spot. Honestly, they've looked awful. I will confess Kubel's ABs have seemed better, but still not 'there'. So if they go to AAA and earn a spot in MLB, great, they need to hit .300 plus. If not, the context of the 2014 team isn't needing guys who are 31 to 34 years old who can hit .265-.275 (or worse) at the MLB level. Not going to put a dent in the old ironsides (aka the Win column) for 2014 and much less beyond (age factor/multiplier will continue to apply). I don't think Hicks' service time will be that great big of a factor. I'm not a GM. But 3 years down the year (service year 5) if Hicks is hitting well and playing well, try a long term deal in year 4. There's so many other factors, Buxton's hitting .340 and playing great CF...Arcia is hitting 35 bombs, and little Max Kepler (or whoever) is hitting well and is cheaper, then do what the other small market teams do (A's, Rays) - if Hicks has value and isn't signable for salary that works - he will bring value back in a trade. Don't sacrifice a bird in your hand for two in the bush. Hicks needs to play now, and the young guys need to see MLB competition. AAA data points/competition won't work out MLB competition issues. MLB competition will. The only time AAA helps is if you're at AA/A+ level and if it's actually a step up. (I consider AA to have better talent than AAA - ask MLB vets, they'll say the same - from David Ortiz to Giancarlos Stanton, etc etc etc. Manny Machado). Especially after June, as at this point AAA prospects who raked and have passed the super 2 date are in MLB and AAA is mostly 26-32 year old AAAA players. If the MLB guys rake at AAA...and the rookies need some confidence boosters...then do the switch. But this season, for all intents and purposes, is really trying to make 2015/2016 a better reality.

I have a feeling of Colabello is hitting and the OF is full...he'll DH a bunch, but if say, Pinto and Suzuki hit, then maybe Mauer will find more work at 3B (he already takes a few ground balls over there). But those are things that probably have to fall into place before there's really any urgency to try to get those guys in the lineup that much. And that's a problem, I'd be glad for the Twins to have. But it has to happen first.

Again, fine reporting Thyrlos. Totally on board with you on Kubel and Bartlett. Time to let them go. Or at best...send them to AAA where maybe they get their swings on line and hit .330+ to earn a MLB call up. Hicks has looked great...only seen 4 games (on TV) but the Box Scores are pretty solid when I haven't been watching. Then the Defense...he's already a borderline GG defender. Presley sucks... I'm more hopeful from your report that Hicks will make the MLB roster and should be starting. Also more hopeful we'll see Alex Meyer sooner than later. My feeling is when Alex Meyer pitches, it will be Alex Meyer vs Alex Meyer, that is, he will more likely beat himself (through mistakes, control issues) than the other team beating him with his stuff being on.

Statistically, those are what you call independent events. And if you take a look at WAR created by draft class or international signings year by year, you won't find a correlation where one GM or team is likely to achieve success the next year.

Yeah, you're absolutely right - and I do get what he was trying to say, but his inference/deduction was actually saying Correia's value is NEGATIVE as a Twins 15-20 prospect is not equivalent to a Braves top 15-20 prospect. A Twins Top 15-20 is a Braves Top 3-8 prospect. So Correia would have to drop that value to make it work out. Outside of Sims and Bethancourt, I like Peraza (SS), Caratini ©, Hursh (P), and Parsons (P), but otherwise you're looking at a LOT of guys who are 21 in the GCL to 23-25 years old in low A to AA and not dominating those leagues. Whereas the Twins have teenagers dominating the GCL/Appy/Low A leagues. It's just an entirely different landscape thus why Gilmartin, who's struggled at AA/AAA and is going to be 24 in May was the Braves #10 or better prospect.

This. Yes. Same with Ryan Doumit. A catcher who can't catch. And semi-injured, yet, yielded a #10 prospect from another organization. Granted, he was fading, but still 'worst case' among all major publications (or any others I can find)...he was at least #10 or higher. Trades also economically favor the team that's being inquired of. Just like the Royals 'overpaid' a bit for James Shields in the Wil Myers trade. Correia isn't as bad as people think. Let's compare him to recent traded pitchers. Matt Garza. He was only a 1.5 WAR pitcher last year before his trade (and negative WAR afterwards). Granted, he has more 'lights out' possibilities than Correia, but he's not statistically that much better. Actually, Correia was better last year, he was a 1.6 WAR pitcher. Fangraphs: Garza 2.2, Correia 1.3. So either case, less than 1 Win difference if you have Garza vs. Correia. Garza got a top prospect in return, C.J. Edwards (as high as #28 BA). There's a bunch of other pitchers traded at the deadline. Which I will say, could possibly create a more economic imbalance (need)... I don't know if the Braves feel that internally. Either way, Correia is a pitcher who can eat 180+ innings, relatively cheap, and provide 1-3 WAR in doing so. FA WAR cost $7M per WAR. So he's worth (or meets) his $7M contract... I'm not saying Correia is worth a lot, but a prospect at #10 in the Braves org has a greater chance of never making the bigs than one in the Twins org even at #15-20. And Correia is a big league pitcher who can get 180 innings. He's the same WAR as Garza who yielded a top 80 prospect (according to any publication) and other prospects. Corriea doesn't have the sex appeal of Garza, but I'd say a top 120-150 prospect is within reason. For the Braves that'd probably start with La Stella to another '50 grade high (risk)' type of prospect in return. I'm sure there's a decent chart (if I had more time) that is out there or one that can be made from analyzing the pitcher-prospect trades of the last 10 years.