twinsfan34

Good stuff lightfoot! Great resource here as well. I'll definitely be revisiting as the year goes along.

For one thing, we will definitely find out if the toll it takes on a catcher really is as signification as many say. If it is as they say, then Mauer's 2014, despite it being his age 31, Mauer should easily eclipse his career average of .323. And it's not like he's going into 2014 struggling, he's just come off .319 and .324. Bold Prediction: 155 G .342 AVG 23 HR 90 BB 85 K Floor Prediction: Given Mauer's worst full healthy season was .294 in 2005. I'll say 130 G .310 AVG 13 HR 80 BB 105 K

Just was curious top batting averages with guys having >= 100 K's in a season. Here ya go: I'd rather not Mauer get to 100 K's from a purist point of view, however, if he lands in this group, I think I'd find a way to overlook the 100 K's...

For context...RHP =====> A Meyer and Stewart at @ #19 and #21. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/position-by-position-rankings-righthanders/

Nice to see Kepler on the list...although, some context. The Overall 1B Grade =======> D+ It's a pretty sorry bunch compared to most positions. I would guess only 4-5 of those guys ever have a WAR season over 2.

People lover Winners and whoever is the iconoclastic symbol of winning often gets remembered the most. "Puckett's Catch." "Pucket's Homer." There's no doubt what I'm talking about. "Mauer's catch." "Mauer's homer." Ummmm... And I saw both guys get 5 hits in a game. So I remember those games, but you can't say the two phrases I uttered and there be that same 'ahhhh' moment for Mauer that would get (for the majority) that you get with Puckett.

Call me a skeptic...and the Twins have had guys from from A ball to the pros. Mostly in the early 80's with Eisenreich, HrBek, and Puckett (1 month at AAA after being at Class) - and all of them did pretty well....but I don't see Buxton starting in CF even if he's the clear cut best player ON THE TEAM sans Joe Mauer. I just think they'd play it conservative. Even if they think he'd hit .300 - who else does he have there to help him? And his service time just begins... Also, no reason to sell out every game of the season starting on Opening Day

I can agree with this...it's hard...and perhaps some sort of 'competitiveness should maybe be required'...though hard to enforce as $$ doesn't correlate to W's very well. On the losing side of things...not being all things terrible, I was reading the other day...scouts are saying Rodon (#1 pick in this draft) is a once in a generation talent... I have no idea what 2015 holds...unless that LSU SS comes out...he may be the #1 pick. But not sure he's on the Rodon level.

That includes outliers...the top 5 teams don't function like regular teams - they're statistically irrelevant. Do the Confidence Interval.

Drew is a rental at best...the Twins are not going to compete in 2014 for sure. And 2015 would be a stretch. Buxton and Sano would have to be everyday contributors from Opening Day 2015. With the way the Yankees, Cubs, Rangers and others are abusing the International Signing rules/money - the Twins have pretty much just the draft as a way to acquire premiere talent. The Twins aren't going to land the top 1-2 players at a position in free agency and we're not going to win in the playoffs with 2nd Division starter players.

or SS next year after Mr. Yankee retires.

You also need to more heavily weigh games post injury and most recent games. He's not 25 anymore and he's not pre-ankle injury. Those numbers are long gone...

HAs to be 2 years minimum under new CBA to get a compensatory pick + he has to refuse the qualifying offer of around $15M in 2016 for a 34 year old SS... I would bet against any team paying him over the qualifying offer in 2016 (likely $15-16M per) if they aren't willing to get him cheaper now for the next 2+ younger years of his career.

C: Pinto, Suzuki 1B: Mauer 2B: Dozier SS: Florimon, Bartlett 3B: Plouffe, Escobar LF: Willingham, Kubel CF: Hicks, Presley RF: Arcia 12 Pitchers If Sano is hitting like a madman...do they try to trade Plouffe? Escobar has the LH split thing going for him. How much better is Suzuki than Fryer/Herrmann? I don't think the Twins can trade Kubel right after signing him..or can they? What if both Willingham and Kubel hit well? Hard to justify either in the OF at this point.

As far as right now, if you told me we selected Trea Turner, I'd be pretty happy with that pick. I'd be not so happy with Hoffman. He doesn't miss bats, but he sure missed the strike zone often. A semi 'meh' with Beede. Seems to have overpowering stuff - I'd like to see him get his control under wraps this year (or at least some marked improvement). If we got Rodon, I'd crap a brick. The others I'd watch closely leading up to the June draft are: Tyler Koleck, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Schwarber, and Braxton Davidson.

Can any of those HRs be traced to actual MLB pitching, instead of guys just trying to make it? e.g. a HR off of Adam Wainwright matters more than 5 homers off AAAA talent. Be curious how that translates. Even so, a very small sample size.

AAA is largely an irrelevant step for getting to the bigs. It's a place holder often for marginal MLB talent. If you asked all 30 MLB teams out there if they'd rather have their roster of AAA guys or their AA guys, almost all of them, if not all of them, would choose their AA teams. If a player has any shot at contributing to the MLB level while at AAA...he's usually only there until his super 2 status date is up (often middle June).

Can't give up on Hicks. And as Thrylos said, the Twins need Hicks to be successful for them to be successful. He's been a top 15 prospect. He's a stud in the OF, I dare say he's got a solid chance to win a GG at some point. He seems to make adjustments (historically). I think even if he's only a .265-.280 hitter with 15-20 HR and 15-25 SB with that solid defense he's a great addition to the Twins. Better value than Jacque Jones, but a shade below Shane Mack. I think BA got it right. [TABLE=class: width] 72 Aaron Hicks [TD=align: right]of, Twins[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3]Age: 23. ETA: 2013.[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3]Bat: 55. Power: 55. Speed: 55. Defense: 65. Arm: 70.[/TD] [/TABLE] AVG = .270 - .285 HR = 15-20 SB = 15-20 Defense = Plus Arm = Plus-Plus

With the pending retirement of Derek Jeter after the 2014 season the Yankees appear to be happy with the possibilty of Brendan Ryan being their backup plan for the Yankee's captain in 2014 as well as the STARTER in 2015, despite Stephen Drew being available. Brendan Ryan being a far inferior hitter to Pedro Florimon and by SABR standards, an inferior fielder. ESPN - Source: Yanks still not interested in Drew

With the pending retirement of Derek Jeter after the 2014 season the Yankees appear to be happy with the possibilty of Brendan Ryan being their backup plan for the Yankee's captain in 2014 as well as the STARTER in 2015, despite Stephen Drew being available. Brendan Ryan being a far inferior hitter to Pedro Florimon and by SABR standards, an inferior fielder. ESPN - Source: Yanks still not interested in Drew

Pinto has a great arm and pop-time according to a few sources. Saw that in his CS% last season. His game calling (like any minor league catching prospect) is in question as is his 'framing' (which is still something to be worked out metrically). Suzuki is what he is. I'm in the play Pinto as often as you can and days off as needed. Probably a 120-40 split (Pinto-Suzuki) in starts.

Well...honestly, I was just going by the averages. I don't even think that's optimism A little bit of 'Did you know?' Since 1990 Baseball America has been ranking prospects and since then they've had 18 position players ranked #1. Joe Mauer and Bryce Harper were ranked #1 twice. Of those 18 position players, all but two made the big leagues that same year. The two? Josh Hamilton, who had a car accident and a sever back injury that kept him from making the pros. And the other was Bryce Harper, who was only 18. By the 3rd season after being ranked #1 only three players did not have a season with a WAR > 4. Jurickson Profar has two more seasons (2014, 2015) to try to get that WAR above 5. I wanna say he does. Cliff Floyd was another, he had injuries and never saw more than 116g in any one season. The last? Delmon Young. He had 0.9 his rookie yer and wouldn't get higher than than the following 2 years. So to put that in perspective. Byron Buxton is ranked #1 for 2014, his '3rd season' would be 2016. The average high season by a #1 ranked prospect by his 3rd season? 5.4 WAR. That includes the injury shortened years of Cliff Floyd and the incomprable Delmon Young. Take those guys out, the average WAR is 6.0. 13 players had a 5 WAR or better by their 3rd season following being ranked #1. That's 72% of the players had a WAR above 5 by the season I predicted Nolasco would be better off than Garza. If you want to speculate on Byron Buxton and 2014, try this. Of the 18 ranked #1, nine broke with the team in Spring Training. All but two of the 18 played in the big leagues the year they were ranked #1. That was an 18 year old by the name of Bryce Harper and the injured/drug suspended Josh Hamilton being the two. But that's 89%. So historically, about a 90% change Buxton makes his debut by September 2014. Injuries aside, only Delmon Young, Ben Grieve (4.1 WAR), Cliff Floyd (injuries), Jay Bruce (4.8 WAR), and Jurickson Profar (has 2 years on his timeclock yet) have yet to get a 5 WAR season by year three after being ranked #1. So really, only 4 of 17 guys who've played out their 3 years did not get a 5 WAR season. The number #1 prospect thus has a success rate of 76% to get a 5 WAR year by year 3. Optimism? Meh, I think it's just going with the flow of averages. Then there's the players who are teenagers and had an OPS higher than Buxton at A+. Only Jesus Montero has struggled out of that bunch. I should probably just write an article and put it all together. Just been too lazy, honestly. It's just the history, any one data point (or player) can defy history and history still have a fairly good correlation. But not many of those #1 prospects by BA were consensus #1. It's hard to find consensus before 1990 as there weren't publications on record. But after that, position players, you have a few. Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton. Pretty solid company, and baring steroids for A-Rod, and well, Mauer at least maintaining his current production for another 3-5 years - all would be HOFers. That's not optimism. Just saying it how it is. I personally don't quite buy into the peak of 25-30 HR potential that many scouts and prospect gurus (Parks at Prospectus, Callis at MLB) say Buxton has. I'd expect the 15-22 HR range. I found it amazing that the guy who's going to hit .280 with 25 HR at a premium position (SS) and win ROY in the AL this year wasn't even in consideration for #1 prospect in baseball (Xander Boegarts) among any of the publications. That's absurd to me - just as bad as optimism if you ask me.

I wanted Buxton. Had read numerous articles on him, then the SI article. I was hooked. I thought Appel would go #1 - it didn't even seem (to me) like there was any other way to look at it. Correa was a surprise. So for me, I didn't have anyone outside of Appel and Buxton for the Twins pick. But I was worried about the sign-ability of Appel. I was just hoping for days prior the Twins would get Buxton, and they did. Luis Giolito and Andrew Heaney were sorta interesting, but still was only hoping for Buxton. I typically like HS pitchers to college pitchers. For me, college pitchers, you pretty much know what you're going to get. They're more likely to make the pros and be average. They'd have 3-4 more years of development (entire minor league career) and I don't see a whole lot of change coming from them. If the guy has struggled with command another 3+ years in college, why will rookie league and A-ball correct that? I just don't like losing those 3 years to college when I could have had them in my system. For the 2014 MLB Draft: I'd take Rodon #1 this year....and I'd consider Aaron Nola at #5 for the Twins. Not a fan of Hoffman, he doesn't miss bats, but he sure misses the strike zone. Beede? Maybe. The others I'd watch closely leading up to the June draft are: Tyler Koleck, Trea Turner, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Schwarber, and Braxton Davidson.

Pythagorean W-L - isn't too bad when looking at one team. But when you compare individual teams against each other, it's not that accurate. The average error was 3 games per team. It also doesn't factor well for extremes. If you compare the Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Tigers, Pirates, Cubs or Rays you'll be anywhere from 11-13 Wins off. That's almost 25% of the MLB teams. So 1 in 4 teams, you'll be off by as many as 11-13 wins in any given season +/- the outliers of high scoring lobsided results of any given team season. That said, I don't see the Brewers getting much better this year, and other the NL Central teams will likely be better. Garza didn't help the Rangers at all - I don't see him helping the Brewers much (if at all) either. He's a 2 WAR pitcher. The Twins were bad...really bad. They'll still be bad this year. But they'll get better. The Brewers have to sign at least a 5+ WAR OF (another Braun ) and at least a 3+ WAR 3B (young Aramis Ramirez) to combat Buxton/Sano (estimate for 2016 seasons). How many other Twins Minor Leaguers arrive in the pros and are contributors after 2 more full minor league seasons... Hicks and Arcia will have become what they will be by then. Meyer, Gibson...will have panned out one way or another. Rosario, Santana, Polanco, and Kepler will also likely have been decided as well. Then there's the '2nd tier' guys...Vargas, Harrison, Walker, Jones, etc. Probably sill ranked higher or on par with the top Brewers prospects except they're closer to the pros than their prospects. You can't say the same thing about the Brewers concerning optimism. By any publication I can find the Brewers don't have a top prospect in the top 150-ish. And have about 3-4 guys who are 18/19 years old who may be able to make a debut come 2016, but they only project at most as 55-60 grade (average player). Jean Segura was a great trade for them (4WAR). Gomez, blossomed into an 8 WAR player. I don't think anyone can expect anything more from Gomez, Seguar may get 1-2 more WINS. (shrugs)

Seth, you care to venture a list? If I'm reading it right... 1. Ripken 2. Jeter 3. Wagner Banks > A-Rod