twinsfan34

Jimbo, good comp with Nola. I was looking for an arm angle comp, Chris Sale comes to mind, but he doesn't quite throw that hard. Weaver is much better.

Not a bad draft. Early of course, but other drafts at this same point of glancing back haven't looked as good. Wasn't a fan of the Eades pick. Peterson, Stirewalt, Kanzler, and Christensen show some early potential to be late round gems. Garver is a surprise, I believe, to many. Excited to see what Navarreto becomes. Kid could be a hulk. And curious how Gonsalves will turn out. He was mostly just a fastball pitcher coming out of HS (something like 86% FBs). Wonder what the instructs will have done with him. Even with throwing almost exclusively gas he struck out 39 in 28 innings in the rookie leagues. Was kinda surprised he didn't get a shot at Cedar Rapids (A) by now.

Great question...or a question I've thought a lot about. If his career ended today. No. He'd end up in the Bobby Abreu, Tim Raines, Vlad Guerrero, etc etc category. Not winning a WS (0 for 2) hasn't helped him, though maybe not hurt him at much as it would an NFL player. I was surprised to see he only has 4 GGs. He's a guy who I think needs the 3,000 hits to get in. He's 35. He should finish around 2,600 by year end. So 400 hits shouldn't be too hard to get if he stays healthy. So maybe if no injuries by May/June of his age 38 season (2017) he cracks 3000. Either way, I hope he makes it.

Hicks is 2-for-4 day 1 as a righty only. Let's just string a few more together. thrylos was right...BALK! It's crazy how bad this team is playing, yet it's right around .500. Mauer is k-prone singles hitter with a huge contract. Our #3 hitter, well he strikes out 30% of the time, hits .250. Our cleanup hitter? well, whoever just came up from AAA. Our outfield? Or our outfield of infielders. I've never seen such bad instincts on fly balls before. I can't believe these guys didn't play multiple positions going up at least through high school. Lots of other tough spots. But somehow, we're competing here and there.

I find it interesting this community had wanted or thought this for a few years now (since TD began)...and now it's happening. Kudos to the TD community.

Yea, I'm with you guys on Gordon...if he can well, be something special. But it seems more like he's in consideration as a 'safe projection'...like...we're pretty sure he can be this - albeit it's not really special. Versus "we have no idea" type of scenario that seems to be attached to many pitchers. Maybe while Nola is getting more hype as high as #4 and #5. Just don't like a ceiling .270 hitter with 3-8 HR potential for a #5 pick. I don't care if he catches every ball West of 2nd base. I can't see 180 lbs on that guy yet...Dee is 165 soaking wet and they look similar. Tom was 5'9" 160 until his mid 30's when he started to put on some weight. I'd like to think at #5...we could 'fish' for something closer to a .300 hitter and 25 HR from #5 for a hitter (Jackson?) OR a pitcher who can have a career ERA at 3.5 or lower with a potential 180+ K type of stuff (Who?). This is supposed to be a strong draft too...compared to last year.

Just a little food for thought: Danny Hultzen has a torn labrun and a torn rotator cuff. He was dominating AAA before those injuries. So hard to 'knock' a guy who has those kind of injuries - he may be 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA this year if healthy for all we know. He has better stuff than Mark Buerhle and that's what he's doing. Plus he's in a pitcher's park in Seattle...so maybe even better numbers. Anyway. Radke is a HORRIBLE comp to Nola. Radke was a high school pitcher and learned a changeup with the Twins. Radke was also an 8th round selection out of HS. Note: Radke's career ended due to a torn labrum ate age 33 (see Hultzen injury). Aaron Nola has a different pitch arsenal and is a 3 year dominant pitcher in the #1 conference in NCAA. Arguably the strongest 'non-pro' (amateur) competition in the world. He's a top 15 pick at worst in a STRONG pitching draft. As far as comparing to Radke: They're right handed, they're white, they don't throw 100 MPH, they have pretty good control, then it stops. Totally different pitchers. Then there's pitching style/delivery. Aaron Nola's better comp would be Chris Sale. Similar delivery, just 2-3 mph difference. Ball has lots of tail on it. Then pitch repertoire. Think of pitchers with a fastball with as much movement as Nola. Radke doesn't come to mind. Nola is a 4S, 2S with a lot of tail, Curve...then developmental change, slider. Maybe he adds a cutter as well. Radke was spot 4S and changeup...and kinda added some other stuff as he went through the bigs. As far as the Twins selecting Nola at #5...not overly excited about the pick - but I don't know, depends on who's available elsewise. I was on the Koleck bandwagon last year. I find it interesting that he hasn't developed a 2nd pitch yet. As a high school pitcher, who was not a 'top prospect' by any means, I was directed to not tinker much with curve/slider for 'arm health' reasons. Maybe that's what's going on there - but you'd think he'd try to add a pitch given the chance to be drafted as high as he is. I could see a 87-89 MPH slider added. I don't even see mention of a 2-seamer in many scouting reports. So a little less excited about Koleck from the few clips I've watched and the lack of any secondary pitches being 'raved' about or called 'projectable' by scouts. I'm a little worried about the number of 130 pitch games Rodon has pitched the past 3 years. Still don't think he makes it to #5. Glad Hoffmann got hurt for the sake of the Twins picking him at #5. Talk about a guy who can't miss bats and walks guys and weighs only 180 lbs at 6'4"!! As far as Gordon...will he really be better than Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, Vielma...? If we want GG defense with 40-50 SB speed, it's Vielma. But can he hit .250+? Polanco, he'll hit .280+ with great plate discipline. But will he average 25+ Errors a season? Satana, he'll hit as well...not as great plate discipline, 30+ SB. How's his defense? Goodrum, more similar to Vielma, but not GG defense. How much will he hit? What's the best projection of Nick Gordon?? Would he be as fast as his brother (Dee)? Not even close - his brother is lightning. sub 4.0 to first. Nick is 4.1-4.3. 60 yd - 6.6 sec. How about defense? Is he even as good as his brother defensively? I just don't know how you pick a SS at #5, who best case scenario projects to .285 with 2 HR and 30 SB a season while his defense is not as much as Vielma. What's Gordon's ceiling? .300? 8 HR? 40 SB? He's not as fast as Dee - let's not get that mixed up. He's a 65 speed and the 8 HR is probably guessing way too much for a 5'11 165 guy. His 'hit' projects as a 55 though, so that's .262-270-ish. His best tool is his arm, projected at '70'... That's a #5 pick? Those projection are in place for him getting stronger... Unless I'm missing something. That seems a bit high for a #5 pick and one who is 4+ years away from the pro's with similar prospects in our system. The Twins are .500 this year and they have Meyer, May, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario possibly helping the team by 2015. Then the wave of pitching at A/A+ level. Maybe Twins, etc are hyping him up so we can get a different player. He's an interesting scenario by a Cubs writer, who projects Pentecost for an underslot deal. Honestly, I'd rather have JP Crawford, selected by the Phillies last year #21 overall instead. Plate discipline, 70 grade hit tool, etc. This draft is so weird to me. The past 2 drafts, I had my favorites and this year. I don't know. Maybe it's because the position players seem like reaches this year because the pitching is so much better?

As Thrylos pointed out...Hicks .331 OBP...as bad as he has been, he's still getting on base 1 in 3 times. And his defense is better than any other Twins OF. Fuld, meh. For the other stuff...Calobello is quickly approaching the Mendoza-Hicks line, .233 and falling. So I would keep Hicks above both of those guys. Willingham...I could care less...but if he can hit - he helps the big club. Only one way to figure that out. Arcia, IMO, is better than Kubel or Herrmann - both at the dish and in the grass. And he just turned 23...he just needs more MLB at-bats. We all know he can hit .300 vs AAA pitching. He's doing it again. I think his problem is similar to Hicks - understanding what MLB pitchers are going to do to them pitch strategy wise...and then working on hitting to that.

If Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera can be traded, Kevin Corriea can be traded. And perhaps even for a similar booty as the aforementioned trades.

As Thrylos said...or hinted at...heat and elevation help the ball fly farther so ballparks in elevated warmer areas favor hitters. A quick rundown... PCL: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=1b5c335f 5 r/pg, .272 avg, .91 hr/g EL: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=bc539148 4.41 r/pg, .258 avg, .68 hr/g CAL: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=2a5fd2d9 4.91 r/gp, .261 avg, .81 hr/g The CAL league is usually much higher, PCL and EL are about right. I'd like to see the Twins move their affiliates to warmer weather so they don't lose so many early spring games to weather conditions. I think scouts/teams are aware of how parks favor pitchers vs hitters - so not a problem if the Twins had teams that all played in Arizona for instance.

I'll take no more injuries and lay off the weed until (if it ever) is legal in the US/MLB. New Britain was supposed to be the best ticket for a Twins baseball fan. Buxton Rosario Vargas Sano Instead it's been a one man show - Vargas. Well, Rosario returns next week. Vargas' injury doesn't appear to be serious. And maybe Buxton will return in 2 weeks. Anyone know any updates on Sano's recovery? The scenario in which I believe Sano could start or by mid 2015 actually make it to MLB is if he is healthy enough to play every day in the AFL. If he plays there, then maybe the DWL and has enough momentum in ST - he could make the team. Buxton needs to hit .300+ at New Britain with plate discipline. And at least 50 games of that. Then I could see some contingencies for him being in MN by May 2015 - elsewise I'd believe it'd be late 2015. I think Arcia should be up soon. IMO, he's a better option than Colabello and just as good as Kubel. They both strike out 30% of the time (Arcia is similar) but Arcia is a better defender and has more power. I also think his 'moxy' would help the team in those close games. He believes he will win mentality.

Welp...puzzling as ever...other than Drew won't be offered $15M this offseason - is the eventual signing of Stephen Drew by the Red Sox... http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24568006/stephen-drew-signs-with-red-sox Did he not have a better offer than a total of $10M...?

Good stuff here.

And Arcia slugged another HR today (3)...with no K's.

I've seen both he and Plouffe take A LOT of outside fastballs in 2-2 and 3-2 counts. They gotta lead the league, 1-2, in upsidedown K's (watching strike 3).

Some great discussion going on here, love getting the updates each night from this thread. Can definitely tell there is lots of research, watching games if possible, and the like going on. And just so we don't confuse Kevin Correia, Jeff Hoffman, and Aaron Nola. Here's their college stats below. Sure, these are college stats, but is there really any comparison that says Pitcher #3 is nothing like the other two in terms of walks, hits, strikeouts, less wild pitches, etc etc etc etc. Innings per start. Two guys were in the 5-6 IP per start, the other guy was 7-8 IP per start. Then if I told you Pitcher #3 played in against the best competition, what would you say? I will say as I've said before I've never liked Hoffman. He doesn't miss bats for the 'stuff' he supposedly has. He's not 18 anymore, he's 21 now, 22 in January and 23 before he even throws a baseball again. Most 1st and 2nd RD college pitchers need 2-3 season in the minors to make the pros. That means he's 25-26 (Kyle Gibson age) before he does well...whatever is left of him after TJ. And he isn't a guy who misses bats in college, why will professional hitters do worse? The only reason he gets any strikeouts now is lack of discipline from college hitters. I've watched Nola a few times and while I don't think Greg Maddux, he works ahead in counts, and you know he's one step ahead of the hitters. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. Hoffman is a thrower. Correia, I have no idea what he is. BP instructor? "Here, hit this..." Some excellent points on Wacha and Rodriguez in that article. I do think MLB guys can 'tweak' something and add 1-2 MPH to a pitcher. You can't predict Tommy John, yet. As they start to gain stats on if the pitchers were "one sport" athletes and if possible gain their high school stats and then have 1000's of data points to start to show a path of early use that leads to TJ - then so be it. But otherwise, it's still a bit of a crapshoot. Why hasn't Tim Lincecum had TJ 4 times yet? We will never know. He pitched like Rodon in college. Tons of innings. Also, again, my 2 cents, I don't think Hoffman should be discussed before Tyler Beede. Played against better competition, more strikeouts, just needs command. Granted, both guys were only going 5-6 IP per start in college. Here's Beede's stats: Minus the walks, add some strikeouts, that's Hoffman. Beede and Hoffman are both 6'4", however Beede is listed at 210-215 and Hoffman is listed as 185-192. Is it a wonder he's due a TJ yet with no lower body base to throw from? It seems to be a lot of Jeff Hoffman's hype is build on a sandlot type curveball and a great performance in the Cape Code League. But here's the top pitchers from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. How many of those top guys do you recognize? Who do you recognize? Joe Saunders in 2000? Tim Lincecum killed it in 2005 (2 K's per IP!!). Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow in 2007. Chris Sale in 2009. Sean Manea killed it in 2012. Kyle Freeland was the best in 2013. If you didn't find Jeff Hoffman's stats in 2012, here's his player card. And just for fun, some of the top college pitchers career stats piled up. So personally, I would lose all hope in the Twins if they chose Hoffman at #5 just be merely sick if he's their pick at #46. I don't know much about the HS pitchers. Aiken and Koleck, I would think, would surely be gone by #5. Touki, in the number of clips I've watched, has a poor catcher, electric stuff, but is wild. Hard to tell how much a decent catcher would do. He (the catcher) is all over the place, drove me nuts watching him. You'd think someone would help the guy and let him know there's 20+ college and pro scouts at every game Touki pitches.

As with the other poster, kinda wondering what's up with Felix. If he doesn't figure it out sooner than later, when Lewis Thorpe graduates in a few weeks he'll likely swap places with him at EST.

This is for Wednesday's probably starters...not Sunday...correct(?). Sorry to ask, Parker's article mentions Bartlett, released long ago, so woke up in a time-warm thinking it was May 14th, but reading things that may be think March 27th.

Great question Brandon.

I don't see benji21 as pessimistic. We were ranked 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best minor league system by pretty much anybody who put together a list. It's a pretty big downer when you have no production from #1, #2, and wherever you rank Rosario. Meyer has shown a few night games and Vargas is doing well enough he could get a promotion (AAA or MLB) by as early as late July... The other top farm system teams? Just a few small samples... Pirates lost Taillon for the season to TJ, however they have the NL's ROY hitting .395 in AAA. The Cardinals are struggling hitting and Tavares and Piscotty are hitting .320-ish with great plate discipline at AAA. The Astros brought up Springer after he was killing AAA. Singleton, also at AAA, is leading the ML's in HRs and will be up with the big club by mid June/early July. The Cubs would be the other 'top farm system' in the mix. Baez has struggled, however Bryant is killing it at AA as are other top prospects in their system. He gets his K rates down a little and he'll be in the bigs soon. So some of it is we'd have guys knocking on promotions. So far the only promotion is Santana. And I hope it isn't short lived. I guess I feel that's more of a report than a downer/pessimism. But I suppose it could be taken that way too.

this is my projection... but I didn't think you'd miss that kind of thing.

this is exactly what I spoke to...projections. All generic stuff. Most people in the Bible belt are not Christians. Most people in Mississippi are not Christians. Why do people project? Just the other day there was a Mississippi man who killed someone. Did he fit the Bible belt Mississippi man description? And he did share, that it was a struggle to share in public. Again, that's different than the Tim Tebow and other types of Christian. Let's not put projections of Dozier or Michael Sam or anyone we know onto them if we don't know them. Let each person speak for themselves and be distinctly themselves. Did you know Dozier was a Christian before this? I don't get post-game stuff on MLB.TV so I haven't seen that many interviews of Dozier. He's been with the Twins for almost 3 years....and I didn't know this. Doesn't seem to be 'over the top' as some are. He doesn't even go as far as the Kirby Puckett 'sign of the cross' before his at-bats or anything else like that. But to your 2nd point...or Larry the Cable guy...it's usually just out of left field, and if you 'share' in that moment, it's everyone's projection of Christianity - and personally I can't handle the dialogue of most people who claim to be "Christians." It's not the right time to 'share' and people are only going to project what they know of Christianity upon you. Good and bad. That's what my initial post tried to speak to.

TOTALLY taken out of context. Read the whole thing... So to prove it... What's the future career WAR of each players on your list from AA or AAA? And then specifically, what are their contributions in 2014 or 2015 to the MLB club? As the 3 players I listed (Sano, Rosario, Buxton) were to likely make appearances in late 2014 and many expected to be contributors in 2015.

There's a lot who say faith and don't do it. Most often when we hear someone say they're a Christian or anything really, a woman, a European, a man, an 80 year old, a banker, a professional athlete - in all of those things we often throw our projects, both favorable and unfavorable upon them as if we actually knew them. Dozier is fun to watch and seems to be a genuine guy. There's much expectation that faith and behavior should go hand in hand. Just like a young prospect coming up through the minor leagues, for some, it takes a lot of time to overhaul what they knew previously. Faith won't give you win's and tons of money, it's not what it's about. The Bible says there was no greater man born of a woman than John the Baptist (Matt. 11:11). He was beheaded on request of a stripper (Matt. 14). And Jesus was crucified. Good behavior doesn't necessarily equate to 'life results'...Sabermetricians agree. To bring all this to a close. Thanks for sharing Seth. Glad Dozier is humble enough to show how it was not easy at first and the more people he shares with the more it weighs with him. If you're not nervous, it probably doesn't matter that much.

Very thankful the parent club (Twins) have had a season somewhat worth watching this year. Because the minors this year has STUNK! No Sano, No Rosario, and No Buxton so far. May has been horrible. Vargas and Meyer respectable. But otherwise...nothing at AA level or higher within earshot of the big club. I guess Santana is up...and in a few at bats, even down 0-2 today vs Scherzer, he didn't look one bit fazed. Far cry from our other shortstops.