twinsfan34

Of all the SP who got $10M+ per year and for 2 or more years this past Free Agency: Ubaldo...leads MLB in BB's http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jimenub01.shtml Nolasco...leads MLB in Hits & ER allowed http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml Garza's shutout last week lowered his ERA below 4.00 for the first time in awhile... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml Arroyo's numbers... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml Ervin Santana...ERA just under 4 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml Scott Feldman...ERA just under 4 as well http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/feldmsc01.shtml Bartolo Colon...ERA just over 4. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml And the best of the bunch... Tim Hudson...ERA at 2.53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml Scott Kazmir http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml So at this point...that list would look something like this. 1. Kazmir 2. Hudson 3. Feldman 4. Garza 5. Santana 6. Arroyo 7. Colon 8. Ubaldo 9. Nolasco

Man...if you're this kid, you're getting slighted $3M...that's pretty ballsy for the Astros to low-ball him like that. Would he consider just going to college then? Or, is the risk so great on his elbow ligament, that hey may not recover fully?

Each year there's around 20-40 International FA signings per team and 40 rounds in the June Rule IV Draft. The June Rule IV has more players who make MLB, however, the WAR for the international FA's have higher frequency of 30+ WAR careers.* *Based on taking top 100 BA prospects since they started making the list. They have how they were acquired. You're looking at under 5-10% success rate (makes an appearance in MLB) overall. But exactness of Int. FA's that make MLB or have 30+ WAR per season per club...I haven't found a data set that would enable that sort of metric. But if you sign one Miguel Sano and you flop for 3 straight years of $15M (way over pool)...so $45M would you consider it a success to have spent $45M to acquire a hitter who hit 30-35 HR each year?

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward? I can Willingham or Morales being traded quite easily. Not sure about Suzuki...kinda have a feeling he may want to stay and the Twins may feel the same. I'm fine with listening to any offers on anyone besides Dozier and Hughes.

What the Red Sox, Rangers, and Cubs have done...and what they Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are doing - I wouldn't call it cheating. But definitely compromising the integrity of the rule. A rule that has 'penalties' is supposed to prohibit teams from straying far beyond that line. For instance...after the 25% exceeding the cap rule, NO signings (or my 40-man roster spot idea) would just be a concrete wall in the sand vs a line in the sand. When a rule gets blown by with regularity, it just becomes part of the cost of doing business. Not really a rule. So no, not cheating, as they're paying the 'penalties' enforced by the rule - but the rule isn't doing what it was supposedly set out to stop.

I agree here. Have to believe the Yankees feel this group of Int FA's is worth being locked out except for max bonuses of $300K of their pool, and as many $50K fliers (they're except from counting against pool) as they can sign in 2015 and 2016. It's a diminishing cost to 'blow it up' one year, whether in FA or Intentional FA. Kinda surprised they [MLB] didn't do some consulting before instilling this rule. I'm a Developer, so we unit test the crap out of things with given scenarios. [i actually believe they weren't ignorant.] And the rules were clearly put in place knowing that someone 'may exceed' the % thresholds. MLBPA likely had some weigh in on the regular FA. As they don't want their players getting less money in the event a team would lose 1st RD picks for each player. I think it should be 40-man roster spots. For free agency and perhaps for Int Free Agency, say any signings over $1M, you lose a 40-man roster spot. So if you're the Yankees this past year, you sign McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran. I will say they did lose their middle round compensatory picks (e.g. losing Cano...) They also signed Tanaka, but no penalty there. But if no 1st RD or compensatory/sandwich 1st RD picks are available to lose...for both FA and INT FA (every player signed over $1M or for each $1M over their pool allotment) they lose a 40-man roster spot. So if the Yankees only have one 1st, McCann signing loses that pick. Ellsubry and Beltran would cost roster spots (also count their spot, so 'double counting') and they'd have 38 roster spots. Then the Yankees blow past their pool, say, by $15M, they'd lose those spots. It would then free up the back end of their MLB/AAA/AA team for the 'lesser' teams to pick from. It would seem they would then way acquiring a potential 'greater talent' to make available a slightly lesser talent that other teams can then pick up...vs a 'hoarding' type of approach.

Yankees signed 8 out of the top 30 prospects (according to BA)... Curious how much $$$ that amounts to. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-prospects-signed/?sm_id=social_20140703_27185166 The top SS (Dermis Garcia, #1 in MLB's list) still has not signed...rumored to be $3M bonus. Yanks pool is only $1.7M. So it looks like the Yankees (and possibly the Indians, Red Sox, and Rays...so far) will all be limited to not being able to sign a player for more than $300k the follow two international signing periods. -- courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/2014-15-international-signing-period-primer.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-spending-rises-despite-bonus-pools/

The Twins got their 2nd major signing....$450K. Jean Carlos Arias, OF, L/L, 5'10'' 150. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/twins-sign-dominican-outfielder-jean-carlos-arias/

Sounds like Mike Trout.

'16 years old' and 'consistent'...in the same sentence? Not likely. Wonderful 'lotto pick' if you will. Looking forward to a few more $500K+ signings and many of the $50K fliers. I was 5'10'' 135 lbs as a 16 year old. I was 6'1'' 180 as a 17 year old. Lots can change at that age.

If they're 5-9 before the All-Star break...I'd expect we'd be 12 games or so out of 1st...and then the FO would likely be very open to trades. Especially since Morales & Willingham can leave the following year without us getting anything in return.

I thought I remember thinking this too...but maybe not? Do you recall which play? I know in the rundown that caught Adrian Beltre off of 1st...but that was Esocar or the Pitcher not coming in behind him at 2nd. Not a great throw and he needed to run Beltre down a little closer to 1st...but nonetheless, would have been fine if someone had been backing him up at 2nd base.

yeah...faced 4 guys, walked 4 guys. So bascially, he's unhittable.

In the age of stupidity...continuing along the likes of Stephen Drew et al, but in regards to the Rule IV Draft. I give you Dustin DeMuth...the Twins 8th RD pick from a year ago. Drafted in the 8th round (230th overall) by the Minnesota Twins in 2013 (did not sign) Draft Report [+] http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/architecture/images/premium.gifDrafted in the 5th round (146th overall) by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014 (signed for $50,000) Draft Report [+] http://www.baseballamerica.com/architecture/images/premium.gif Source: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/3306/ Who likely would have gotten more than $50K had he signed with the Twins. Looks to be a good hitter...hate to see that he got away. Twins slots this year as #5 slot, they were #4 last year. 5. Jake Reed - $356,400 - $350,000 6. John Curtiss - $266,900 7. Andro Cutura - $199.900 - $175,000 8. Keaton Steele - $161,300 - $115,000

And he (Tanner English) had 4 hits in his debut...including a home run. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_06_26_elirok_brlrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

And Cederoth is starting tomorrow (or today)! Gordon...gotta demote the guy...another 0-fer!

Always been fascinated by Nate Roberts' numbers...never seen him play though. Best case scenario for him...would be ______ ?

I have been wondering on Garver as well... What's the feeling on Koch (age 25) and Knudson (age 26) at AA? May sound weird, but due to Garver's bat maybe playing better than Turner's, would/could a jump to AA be of value?

They might end up having the same amount of development time if Correa misses the rest of the season. Not sure which injury is worse, if "only" a major ankle sprain. Correa is a year younger though...as was likely about to hit AA.

Here's what some of the penalties are: "There are penalties in place for teams exceeding their spending limits. Teams that exceed the pools by 0 to 5 percent have to pay 100 percent tax, and teams that exceed the pools by 5 to 10 percent are not allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the next signing period and also have to pay a 100-percent tax on the pool overage. Teams that exceed the pools by 10 to 15 percent are not allowed to sign a player for more than $300,000 during the next signing period and have to pay a 100-percent tax on the pool overage. In the most severe penalty, teams that exceed the pool by 15 percent or more are not allowed to sign a player for more than $300,000 during the next two signing periods in addition to paying a 100-percent tax on the pool overage." Last year the Cubs went Hog wild signing IFA's. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-07-04/sports/ct-spt-0705-rogers-cubs-chicago-20130705_1_erling-moreno-gleyber-torres-jed-hoyer According to that article, they spent about $8M (guessing not exempt, as contracts $50K or lower are exempt as I understand it). So they're pretty much out of this year (2014) and next year having exceeded that 15% - unless they were able to trade for more pool money. So...the Yankees could go hog wild this year...and just handcuff themselves for 2015 and 2016. Sorta, they can still sign players for up to $300K bonus. So the strategy, sorta go heavy one year, then just miss out the following 2 years. Thus it's strategy in a way...not cheating. Just have to believe the scouts in saying the following 2 years aren't as worthwhile. Or can find a few guys for under $300K (max per signee) and not go over their pool. Be nice if the Twins could go for one or two of those top prospects...and well, just play out their allotted bonus pool. Play all the lottery tickets they can so to speak. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/2014-top-30-international-prospects-list?ymd=20140620&content_id=80379210

Darren WolfsonVerified account ‏@DarrenWolfson Buxton wrist update: progress as he's been able to hit off a tee two days in a row. BP coming soon. Shouldn't be a lost year. #mntwins 1:00 PM - 15 Jun 2014 https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/478235549191241728/ So would seem since June 13th he's been able to hit off a tee. No consequent updates of course.

Good stuff. Appreciate the research on this rather obscure information.

So there's a pool of money...but you can exceed it...and the penalties are what? Because...of the top 7 prospects listed there, 4 of them, the Yankees are listed as the favorite to sign. They also are favorites for 9 of the top 25. Again...no way they could stay under their pool allotment. The Yankees are listed at #17 overall for pool money at $2,193,100. It's highly unlikedly they could even sign the top 2 prospects for that individually. That said, a lot of prospects have comfort with teams due to the relationships of scouts make (or agreements) with managers of these young kids (these managers get paid off handsomely). But I would think MLB could still put a kabosh on that. Be nice if the Twins could snipe in on a few of those Yankee favorites... Slot Values: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-15-mlb-international-bonus-pools-and-slot-values/ Top IFA prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_players#list=int

Also thought this was interesting... "wins scouting director Deron Johnson has a rule that the team always pick a college shortstop within the first 10 rounds of the draft..." Probably why they were so high on Gordon. He's not a college SS...but a SS anyway. Maybe why Levi Michael was a forced pick. IT hasn't quite been 'by the book' as Nelson Molina (PR) was taken in the 11th RD in 2013. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2013&draft_type=junreg& LJ Mazilli was listed as a 2B...didn't sign...9th RD in 2012. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2012&draft_type=junreg& Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, and Adam Bryant were all picked before the 9th RD in 2011. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2011&draft_type=junreg& Niko Goodrum, HS SS...2nd RD of 2010. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2010&draft_type=junreg&

Great article... From the Blue Collar fit of the organization...to his many talents. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140620/brian-dozier-minnesota-twins/