twinsfan34

Kohl Stewart...#19!! The thing with Kris Bryant...great avg, power, but strikes out in 27% of his PA. Sabermetrically speaking that's the most consistent stat to continue...he'll likely strike out 30-33% of his PA in a season. So around 180-210 K a year. So maybe a little better AVG than Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds - but the similar 35-40 HR. Miguel Sano had 27% as well. Joey Gallo, the other 80 grade power prospect, is at 32% at A+/AA ball. To look back at other high HR high K guys, Chris Davis would be comparable. He had 199 K last year in 673 PA last year...he had 24% K rate in his AA/AAA season.

If Walker can lead the FSL (A+) in HR, it will be 3 straight years he's led the league he's in in HR. Pretty cool. He's been slightly younger than his competition too, not much, generally a half a year, but still. Not too shabby. If he does it again next year at AA...that would perhaps swing the needle over towards for many to have more expectation of a possible MLB contributor.

How often have teams made adjustments like this one in the past? PP* you mean LH hitters right?

I see your reasoning...curious why there's been so many guys who are JRs in college or HS that go back to college or in the case of the HS, go to college. Dustin DeMuth, Twins pick a year ago obviously got hammered. Phil Beckford to Mark Appel, etc. all end up much worse. So I get the logic, in fact I've gone about my employment this way. If I make $72K a year and take off 3 months to get another job...even if I now would make $96K a year ($24K raise) it would still take me 9 months to make up that lost money, even though I would not be making $24K per year MORE than I made before.

+1 Agree. Once the Twins decide they are out of contention, it's development time. And honestly, I don't think fan interest would wane if you had Vargas, Pinto, May, Meyer, Rosario, Kepler (hey, he's on the 40 man), etc would be on the roster taking at bats.

Well, unless he's Clayton Kershaw or Jose Fernandez he's still likely to take about the same time to reach the majors and thus his service time. HS Pitchers typically start in the Appy Lg maybe make it to A ball their first year. Soph, if they do well they finish strong at A+. Junior, if continuing to go well, AA. So yea...maybe a year? And then the caveat of the new contracts that star young players (Longoria, Trout, Polanco, Springer, etc trend) are getting. Would he really lose that money? Could he just go to Juco then and get ahead...be eligible FA altogether or would he just be eligible for the June MLB Rule IV draft again?

Every top publication has Stewart in their top 50 midseason rankings, most in their top 30. They talk to scouts, they scout themselves. Just saying. No worries here. Carlos Rodon struck out the equivalent of appy league hitters at 10.6 K/9 his Freshman season at NC State. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=carlos-rodon Aaron Nola struck out exactly 9 per 9 innings his freshman season. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=aaron-nola Jeff Hoffman as a 19 year old only struck out 6.7 hitters per 9 innings at East Carolina (think even lower than appy league competition). And he's considered a strikeout pitcher at age 21. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jeff-hoffman-2 Brandon Finnegan, considered a strikeout pitcher, only 8 k/9 as a 19 year old in college ball. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jordan-queja Jon Gray, Mr Velocity, Mr Strikeout pitcher. As a 19 year old at a juco college (Eastern OK State College), barely striking out 10 hitters per 9 innings. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=jonathan-gray Mark Appel, last year's #1 overall pick. As a 19 year old soph at Stanford only struck out 7 hitters per 9 innings. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Mark-Appel Andrew Heaney got destroyed as a Fr at OK St...only 7 k/9 as well http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Andrew-Heaney It's a bit like that Shakespeare play, "Much Ado About Nothing" Kohl Stewart is playing against much better competition and has about equal strikeout rates against better competition than 'top strikeout pitchers'. The scouts mostly rank him top 30 of all prospects and he hasn't even spent a full year in the minor leagues. Also, here's an article on top prospects and how they've fared. http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html

Aiken can just go to college. He won't have a pro contract for another 3 years, but he could likely make more money then. He should do just that. That's chump change to the Astros and they picked him #1...he already gave them a big discount for $5M. Bunch of jokers over there. And I hope in some way the Astros have to forfeit the pick. (if at all possible)

Yeah, it's more about MLB ready. Santana is a MLBer, Buxton is a prospect, even if he's #1 in baseball and the fact that in 3 years we'd likely not see that scenario. So, in the context, I think they're trying to get Rosario some reps at CF as well. Not necessarily that they don't have faith in Hicks. Just like the Twins have faith in Buxton. Maybe they have no faith in Hicks...but yeah, was in the context of 40 man roster and 'who else?' that I originally put him on the roster next year. One thing we've seen with Hicks...he's going to have a good spring training!

Not sure anyone is worth 4 years and 60 million. To me that's 'middle of the road' type that often reflects 'reaching'...there's Mike Trout FA's and then bargain buys. The only guy on that list I'd be tempted to throw 4/60 at would be Hanley Ramirez - and I would probably do that. I think he's still got enough for SS and would like him more as a DH, spot 3B over the next 4 years over Morales. Of the other guys I'd be more interested in seeing that money go in some form to: Nelson Cruz Melky Cabrera Nick Markakis Michael Cuddyer 2nd Tier: Ben Zobrist J.J. Hardy Torii Hunter I'm ok with the 1-year deal for Moralez, buys time for the guys to knock him out of a job (Vargas, Pinto, Arcia, et al) and to trade him on the high end to a contender type of piece. And I think Mauer will bounce back. He's had 2 sub .300 years and bounced back. I think his back issues (seen even by that oblique strain tweak) is more than he's let it become - still has that catcher's mentality.

It's more along the lines of..who else in the Twins system would get the nod over him? Daniel Ortiz? Wilken Ramirez? Chris Rahl? (Rochester's OF) Rosario isn't on the 40 man...or I'd a put him there. True, and Buxton is deferring to Danny Santana now too at Ft Myers. Buxton is in RF when Santana's in the lineup.

Yep, here's a good article Regarding Service Time & the 40 Man roster, using the Cardinals as an example. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/goold-the-rules-regarding-september-promotions/article_fa9eec14-f12c-11e1-9256-001a4bcf6878.html

In addition to being mostly a DH limitations...not much value added at 1B there. But is he even seen as a clubhouse guy? (If so, I don't know that he is) He doesn't look like the most fit guy. And thus the 'follow me' or 'train with me' type as the other guy who someone other players want to be like type. Also, I would think you'd want a Cuban/Latin player (much like David Ortiz) who's as equally affective at speaking English as Spanish. Morales speaks through an interpreter: Man, listening to that interview again...to sign Morales...Terry Ryan..."The Pohlad's were kind enough to try to free up some money to allow us to make this move." Like wow...I have a lot of respect for Terry Ryan (may not be shared by many), but I'd love to see him with many of the freedoms that other GMs have. But I'm with the youth movement. DH is a nice place to keep a guy here in the bigs, getting at bats and being around MLB guys if he isn't necessarily good in the field. Candidates include Josmil Pinto, who I believe would have hit better had been consistently in the lineup. Vargas, as others mentioned is an option. Arcia is a guy who's looked a lot better in RF, but he's also a guy who when (if) he gets his pitch recognition act together, could need some time at the DH role. I don't know who all is going to be back, but of the guys who I am pretty sure will be back for 2015 of the position players, they are: C: Pinto 1B: Mauer 2B: Dozier 3B: Plouffe SS: Santana LF: CF: Hicks RF: Arcia 7 guys... Replaceable/Utility Guys: IF: Escobar, Nunez OF: Parmalee, Colabello My guess is Escobar and Nunez stick. Likely gone: Willingham, Morales, Fuld Possible extensions: Suzuki Possible farm additions: 1B/DH Vargas 2B/LF Rosario 3B Sano So basically going to need some FA's to come in...especially at the OF spot(s) unless Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia can make them believers before Opening Day 2015.

Correct. "AAAA Player" at best.

Yeah, he's interesting guy for sure. No power, not much speed, but good plate discipline. I don't know if he'll be a MLBer. But who knows...at age 27/28 you might see him in Oakland's lineup.

One thing on Dozier...no idea the market for him. Plus his value to us (blue collar guy who buys into the Twins idea, loves MN, hunting, fishing, etc type) might be higher than to potential suitors. But will he ever hit over .250 as a hitter? Does that matter? Is he Dan Uggla with speed? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml

Yes. You sell high. Billy Beane, etc...or anybody in anything, you sell high. And the thing is, he's a FA at the end of the year. Handle him right and you can go back after him after the year (if he goes to STL). So he gets to play in a positive clubhouse, a chance at a WS ring, and then can still come back to MN if he wants to. This is something you have to do.

yeah...Herrmann isn't the answer. Here's there "top 20" prospects according to MLB.com http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=stl

Bowden is right though...Molina's age and contract says they only need a rental for the rest of the year. Suzuki makes the most sense. Highest value with only a 1 year deal.

Because I doubt they'd be willing to move any of their starting pitching or starting pitching prospects... IF they came to us, I'd start the conversations at Piscotty (RF) from AAA and a low A ball slash Rookie league prospect or Marco Gonzalez. Albeit I believe that price is a bit high for Suzuki...but that's where I'd start the asking. Throw in a few players to get a player like that though would be the idea. They might part with Piscotty because they have basically 4 OF guys at AAA that have decent potential as MLB players and having 3 guys on the MLB roster already (Tavares is up now). So maybe due to abundance, could get more value than normal. Good hit tool, canon for an arm RF...also played some 3B at Stanford I believe.

Buxton isn't on the 40 man...would love to see it. But yea... I hope Meyer comes up sooner...he's going to be 25 next season, be nice to get him a few big league starts before he turns 25. I believe May should be up by/in August sometime as well. I think Vargas is on the 40...so he should be coming up as well. Is Gilmartin on the 40...if so, can see him getting a cup of coffee. He's also going to be 25 next season.

Here's a link with a few more years to add to the sample size. http://www.mlbprospectguide.com/p/international-signings.html 2010 and 2011 was a bit better...a few other years as well. Still hit and miss. Not quite enough data out there to compare vs the MLB Rule IV June Drafts. I ran some comparisons using the Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list and players who were international signings were more often "Stars" (War over 30, War over 40, War over 50, etc) but College/HS drafted players more often made MLB. BA's lists go back to 1995: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time

Dunn gets a few too many BB's for my Walker comp. My comp: Half-Caff Jose Abreu http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml

I'm qualified sans the JS (backbone? Angular? either way, JS is some voodoo magic!), and wife would never leave the DFW for MN Winters. Very similar to the job that the Texas Rangers posted a little while back... Except less analytics focused and more developer focused. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/job-posting-texas-rangers-programmer-analyst/

Could potentially soften the likelihood of Suzuki being traded...or at least gives said team a shot at another catcher before they'd get 'desperate' to try the trade market of Suzuki...