twinsfan34

Thanks for doing this Brock. I just sent you one ad. It was an "Abbott" (politician) ad, followed by another ad - was able to catch that. I had another TD page open too, audio was playing, but couldn't locate the ad. Have had a few that have done that - weird.

I like the Adam Brett Walker addition... I kind of error on pitchers not going unless they need the work, so for me Jones was an obvious choice. Kohl Stewart has 84-ish innings already...wouldn't mind seeing him against better competition, however is that at his 'quota' for the year. I had Rosario as well...however, as my question indicated, will the 'international kids' just automatically go back and play in their respective Winter league? If the competition is good enough, kind of like extra roster spots. If it's not as good of competition, then would prefer some of them here.

How did the most successful teams of 2013 make it to the playoffs? Was it through the Farm System/Draft, Free Agency, or Trades? Any guesses which was the most expensive of the 3 areas? And which was the most successful (regardless of salary)? Download attachment: Wainwright_Adam_champagne_US_720.jpg Below are the 2013 rotations which are ordered by post-season rotation order and then secondarily, for the #4 & #5 starters, by their contributions during the regular season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Boston Red Sox Jon Lester – Farm system – $11.625M – 15-8 W-L 3.75 ERA 213.1 IP 177 SO John Lackey – FA - $16.5M – 10-13 W-L 3.52 ERA 189.1 IP 161 SO Clay Buchholz – Farm system – $5.5M – 12-1 W-L 1.74 ERA 108.1 IP 96 SO Felix Doubront – Farm system – $519K – 11-6 W-L 4.32 ERA 162.1 IP 139 SO Ryan Dempster – FA – $13.25M – 8-9 W-L 4.57 ERA 171.1 IP 157 SODetroit Tigers Justin Verlander – Farm System - $20M 13-12 W-L 3.46 ERA 218.1 IP 217 SO Max Scherzer – Trade - $6.7M – 21-3 W-L 2.90 ERA 214.1 IP 240 SO Anibal Sanchez – Trade - $8.8M – 14-8 W-L 2.57 ERA 182 IP 202 SO Doug Fister – Trade - $4M – 14-9 W-L 3.67 ERA 208.2 IP 159 SO Rick Porcello – Farm System - $5.1M 13-8 W-L 4.32 ERA 177 IP 142 SOOakland Athletics Bartolo Colon – FA - $3M – 18-6 W-L 2.65 ERA 190.1 IP 117 Sonny Gray – Farm system - $490K – 5-3 W-L 2.67 ERA 64 IP 67 SO Jarrod Parker – Farm System (trade w/ ARZ as Class AA, #26 Overall Prospect) - $495K - 12-8 W-L 3.97 ERA 197 IP 134 SO AJ Griffin – Farm System - $493K – 14-10 W-L 3.83 ERA 200 IP 171 SO Dan Straily – Farm System - $493K – 10-8 W-L 3.96 ERA 152.1 IP 124 SOTampa Bay Rays David Price – Farm System – $10.1m – 10-8 W-L 3.33 ERA 186.2 IP 151 SO Matt Moore – Farm System – $1M – 17-4 W-L 3.29 ERA 150.1 IP 143 SO Alex Cobb – Farm System – $502K – 11-3 W-L 2.76 143.1 IP 134 SO Jeremy Hellickson – Farm System – $503K – 12-10 W-L 5.17 ERA 174 IP 135 SO Chris Archer – Farm System - $500K – 9-7 W-L 3.22 ERA 128.2 IP 101 SOAtlanta Braves Kris Medlen – Farm System - $505K – 13-9 W-L 3.21 ERA 204.2 IP 181 SO Mike Minor – Farm System - $2.6M – 15-12 W-L 3.11 ERA 197 IP 157 SO Julio Teheran – Farm System - $490K – 14-8 W-L 3.20 ERA 185.2 IP 170 SO Paul Maholm – Trade - $6.5M – 10-11 W-L 4.41 ERA 153 IP 105 SO Tim Hudson – Trade - $9M – 8-7 W-L 3.97 ERA 131.1 IP 95 SOLos Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw – Farm System - $11M – 16-9 W-L 1.83 ERA 236 IP 232 SO Zack Greinke – FA - $19M – 15-4 W-L 2.63 ERA 177.2 IP 148 SO Hyun-jin Ryu FA - $6M – 14-8 W-L 3.00 ERA 192 IP 154 SO Ricky Nolasco – Trade - $11.5M – 13-11 W-L 3.70 ERA 199.1 IP 165 SO Chris Capuano – FA - $6M – 4-7 W-L 4.26 ERA 105.2 IP 81 SOPittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano – FA - $1M – 16-8 W-L 3.02 ERA 161 IP 163 SO AJ Burnett – FA - $16.5M – 10-11 W-L 3.30 ERA 191 IP 209 SO Gerrit Cole – Farm System - $490K 10-7 W-L 3.22 ERA 117.1 IP 100 SO Jeff Locke – Farm System (Trade w/ Braves when in Class A) - $498K – 10-7 W-L 3.52 ERA 166.1 IP 125 SO Charlie Morton – Trade - $2M – 7-4 W-L 3.26 ERA 116 IP 85 SOSt. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright – Farm System (trade w/ Braves as Class AA, #18 Overall Prospect) - $12M - 19-9 W-L 2.94 ERA 241.2 IP 219 SO Shelby Miller – Farm System - $490K 15-9 W-L 3.06 ERA 173.1 IP 169 SO Michael Wacha – Farm System - $490K 4-1 W-L 2.78 ERA 64.2 IP 65 SO Joe Kelly – Farm System $493K – 10-5 W-L 2.69 ERA 124 IP 79 SO Lance Lynn – Farm System - $513K – 15-10 W-L 3.97 ERA 201.2 IP 198 SOSo if you were tallying, you would get this breakdown of the rotations by team: Download attachment: 2013 Playoff Starting Rotations Breakdown.jpg All but two had their ace come through their farm system. Bartolo Colon and Francisco Liarino have proved to be one-year wonders. And at $3M and $1M respectively, they were steals, but hardly predictable contributors. Apart from those two free agent finds, six free agents combined for a 61-52 W-L record, while having a combined price tag of $77.25M. Add Liriano and Colon back to the mix and it's 95-66. Here's a look over the past 4 years of FA starting pitcher to back up the post-season numbers from this year. Download attachment: Free Agency - Pitchers Breakdown.jpg One could run a little optimization application to figure out the optimal price to pay for Free Agent Pitching. (I'll run this later) Lesson: Don't overpay for Free Agents. Only in 2011 did the highest paid free agent starting pitcher, Cliff Lee, have the most wins. So what's the best method for teams, including the Twins, in 2014 (and beyond) to develop a pitching staff? Farm System Cheap FA flyers Continue to add more power arms via 2014 MLB Draft Trades that yield prospectsMaybe, just maybe, Terry Ryan doesn't sound like such a stooge anymore. Click here to view the article

Got a question... Does the level of the player affect the Dominican, Puerto Rican, and/or Venezuelan players more or less than their respective homeland? e.g. Eddie Rosario was suspended 50 games...got a bit behind he's a AA prospect, would he more likely go back to PR or would he go to the AFL? The same logic could be applied to say, Miguel Sano, JO Berrios, and Jorge Polanco - all AA prospects who fit into that "AFL"-ish level prospects but also would, at least in years past, go back 'home' to play in say the Dominican Summer League... I would assume Buxton, if he can avoid getting hit by about 30 more baseballs in the next month - seems to be an issue of late - maybe need to send Vargas down to A+ to charge the mound after Buxton gets hurt, burry the pitcher carcass in the dirt, and return to AA with the presumed understanding hitting Buxton won't be tolerated. I don't think Sano will be healthy enough and they'll probably take it easy - so maybe wishful/hopeful projection on my part. So...they are... 1. Byron Buxton - less than 30 GP, needs more work to get rust off for ST 2. Eddie Rosario - 50 game suspension, still hasn't gotten back to where he was last year 3. Zach Jones (just back from aneurysm surgery, needs work) 4. Max Kepler (again) - some nagging injuries as well - 40 man roster guy - needs to get 'somewhere' 5. If a catcher is needed...either Turner or Garver, whichever they feel needs more work. 6. Mason Melotakis A big maybe, but maybe Aaron Hicks...to hit RH

weird..it says this was posted today. This is ST material.

I'd be for Plouffe trying LF or RF. Might actually be an asset - his arm isn't so bad. Likely when Willingham is traded. I do think Sano will stick at 3B. I'm no scout. But I believe he's agile enough to man the position and will be given every chance to do so. e.g. this Spring Training there was no moving him off the bag. I'm not one to 'preach' platoon. However, I do think you can play to strengths and it should be done. Plouffe fits the stereotype of better vs lefties, but solid enough to warrant some ABs vs righties. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=plouftr01&year=Career&t=b The question would then be is much better (if at all) than say, Escobar or Nunez. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml Plouffe: 95 OPS+ L/R split vs LH .276/.345/.484 vs RH .228/.287.383, FA in 2018 Nunez: 87 OPS+ L/R split vs LH .265/.300/.392 vs RH .266/.315/.371, FA in 2018 Escobar is much like Nunez with an even split. FA in 2019 Then you have Polanco coming along...and will he be better than those options? Or enough to push Dozier to 3B or take 3B himself...at least until Sano would have a shot and/or lose the position. The semi 'scary' thing is, even Dozier despite his nice power/speed numbers only has a .230/.325/.418 statline and a .237/.306/.395 career line in 1429 career PA's. One way or another, we're going to need to find guys hitting in slots 1-5 that are .330 OBP and higher types to be successful. Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Escobar, etc would fit in slots 6, 7, 8, and 9 on a good team. Dozier may be a able enough at #2 though. So yeah, trade Willingham, see if Plouffe is able to play some OF. Hopefully trade Suzuki as well, and Pinto gets another 110-150 PAs to end the season.

Glad to see Gonsalves up and have a great start at Cedar Rapids. Any updates on Kohl as far as being shut down, precautionary skip, etc? Reading boxscores and readups like this remind me how weird things turn out than what I would have projected. To see Jorge Polanco, already have a few cups of coffee in the big leagues and at AA, while Byron Buxton is still at Ft. Myers. Alex Meyer still not up with the MLB club yet. Glad to see Tanner English back...maybe he and Max Murphy could end up in Cedar Rapids sometime soon.

It was announced on Friday that the Chicago White Sox signed Jose Abreu to a 6 year $68 million dollar deal. Download attachment: adam-dunn-strikeout.jpg Let’s not get our undies in a bunch over the Chicago White Sox signing of Adam Dunn, Part II. First a little on our midwest American League Central neighbors. Lest we forget, this is the same White Sox management that signed Adam Dunn to a 4yr/$56M deal. Adam Dunn. Jose Abreu. Well, that's another "donkey" in the stable in Chi-town. So let’s look elsewhere to consider if this is a worthy investment. Let’s look at the teams who throw money to the wind when the air of free agency comes in. The New York Yankees have $22.25M coming off the books at 1B/DH alone (Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis). Add another $15M if you count Curtis Granderson and 33% timeshare of his playing time at DH. Then factor in the retiring Andy Pettite’s $13M. The Yankees, believe it or not, have money to spend for 2014. That’s just over $50M cool annually starting in 2014. A-Rod's pending suspension could add even more to the pot. The Boston Red Sox, never a stranger to spend, also have a possible $13M in free money available in that Mike Napoli’s contract expires at year's end. You would think for $2M less they’d take a gander at Abreu, unless they think he couldn’t at least duplicate Napoli’s stat line of .259 AVG 23 HR 92 RBI in 498 at-bats. The Texas Rangers are not likely to bring back Lance Berkman and thus his $11M would be free to spend on Abreu. Wouldn’t Texas be a little more appealing to Abreu? A perennial contender to advance to the World Series, strong Spanish speaking leadership (Adrian Beltre et al), closer to Cuba, warmer weather, etc. But, they passed on him. A few other big money spenders include the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants. The Mets have $25.5M coming off the books in Johan Santana. The Giants meanwhile have $35.2M coming off the books in Tim Lincecum & Barry Zito (possibly another $7M if the team doesn’t exercise Ztio’s 2014 option). Even if they were to re-sign those players at half their previous salary that would leave over $20M per season to lure Abreu to the Bay area. So let’s consider the numbers. Unfortunately we don’t really have a full idea of how the Cuban leagues stack up against MLB. For perspective, most of the pitchers in Cuba throw between 80-85 mph, which is about the average speed of most high school starting pitchers. In the Cuban National Series (their baseball league) they had only two pitchers with a K/9 ratio over 7 (Alain Tamayo and Ismel Jimenez). Twins fans are very familiar with "pitch to contact" and that's exactly the type of league Abreu played in while in Cuba. Clay Davenport, founder of the Baseball Prospectus, and renown baseball sabermetrician, likens the “Cuban Serie Nacional” unto 'Low-A' ball competition. Byron Buxton finished in 'High-A' last year for the Ft. Myers Miracle. The next best option for comparison is this spring’s 2013 World Baseball Classic. Abreu did manage to hit .360 (9-for-25) with three home runs and nine RBIs. Those sound like decent numbers, until you compare them to the average performer at the WBC. The batting average of qualified players in the WBC was .374. That is, the average player hit .374 (368 for 984). The average player was .014 better than Abreu. Justin Morneau hit .636 (7 for 11) at the Classic. Michael Saunders hit .727 (8 for 11). Sure you can find other big leaguers who did better or worse than Abreu in the Classic. The batting average is something scouts can overlook as it's reasonable to expect a poor five game stretch. A better indicator for scouts than batting average is often a player's plate discipline and strikeout ratio. Download attachment: Jose Abreu WBC.jpg Jose Abreu in his 25 at-bats at the WBC did not walk even once. The rest of the league walked at a 10.8% rate. How about strikeout%? Other WBC hitters struck out an average of 13.9% of the time. Abreu? He struck out 20% of the time. He struck out 20% of the time despite not facing a single MLB pitcher during the tournament. (For those of you keeping track at home, Abreu whiffed in his only AB against Masarhio Tanaka. But then again, all six outs Tanaka recorded against the Cuban team were strikeouts.) Download attachment: Jose Abreu vs Chris Colabello.JPG Can Abreu be something more than Adam Dunn, Part II? Sure. So, even if he does end up producing better than Adam Dunn, those Twins fans pining for higher SO/9 from Twins pitchers can celebrate the 20 games of the year they will be pitching to Abreu, who is sure to strike out more than 20% of the time against 'real' MLB pitchers. I don't think Twins fans should be sad to see them pass on Abreu. In fact, this is where Twins fans should start to smile. Because in that very same World Baseball Classic, one Chris Colabello hit just as well. But Colabello did it against actual MLB pitching, including HRs off Edinson Volquez and Scott Mathieson to boot! And Colabello is not a liability in the field like Abreu. Also, as if this deal could not get any sweeter, we got Colabello under contract for $500k a year! Go ahead Twins fans, feel free to pinch yourself now. Click here to view the article

Great article on Gordon....but what stuck out to me the MOST out of that read was this: "the Twins’ pitching staff leading the league in strikeouts..." (ELZ Twins)

Acquired RHP Corey Knebel and RHP Jake Thompson from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Joakim Soria. That wasn't a bad trade. Knebel has closer potential. Thompson is 20 (Berrios) in AA. I think Perkins would bring more than this trade. And I felt that's pretty good value of 2 guys likely to make it in MLB and Knebel could be a closer. For equivalents, Burdi would have to be up by next by May 24th to be at the same level of development.

Boston's AA team is solid and nice to see Vargas get 2 hits off the toughest pitcher to hit in AA (Owens), including a grand slam. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&sid=milb&gid=2014_07_24_prtaax_nbraax_1&mode=box&c_id=milb

Iowa, James, et al. Great points. I was definitely aiming 'strong'...right or wrong. The 'overall direction' would be that it seems that the Astros are attempting to go 'cheap' and not in good faith in dealing with their players and putting a competitive product out there. For context I will 'divulge' that my strategy does involve a point where it's 'time to sell' in it, namely each year when my team(s) are beyond competing, I'm very much for try the youth movement and in essence 'giving up'...or at least 'sell mode'...but I do believe that's being competitive still as you're trying to be better (next year). But I do believe I would need to put up a spirited fight/team together at first, or at least to the best of the abilities and assets allocated to me. Application: At this point with the Twins, I'm in 'sell mode'...but I do believe they gave an 'honest effort' to be competitive at the beginning of the year vs a "doormat to the West" like I believe the Astros have been doing the past 3, now 4 years. The Astros should have had Springer up Day 1. He honestly should have gotten a few AB's in Sept last year, if not solidly in the mix on opening day. I understand Super 2 as well as anyone. But at $26M last year and the $50M this year, $60M in 2012...they'll have plenty of money saved up to pay Springer that money going forward. The 'average' team salary is around $78M NOT counting the outliers of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees... Astros Salary Info: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/ http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2013.shtml

Trying to find similar precedents. The closest case would be the curious case of Benjamin Button, er Travis Lee. And I don't reference this as a jaded Twins fan. It's just the most comparable case. Albeit, this was on the client/agents/player's side of things. As best we know the agent requested the Twins not begin negotiations (btw, isn't that beginning negotiation?) with Lee until after the Olympics. The Twins should have covered their butts, one way or another - I can't believe they didn't know the rules. The college part of this equation is tricky. What if they (Aiken and Nix) aren't allowed to enroll at UCLA or JUCO? Does baseball then, rid itself of a precedent, but rather, in effort to protect those wishing to play MLB respond in a way (perhaps why they're waiting) that would be protecting the interests of the players (Aiken and Nix...and Marshall(?)...) The crazy part is the $3.5M to $5M (already a big discount from his slot of $7.9M)...why would the #1 overall pick take a discount - well, so he could be the #1 overall selection as the #2 guy was slotted for $6.8M. So Aiken's camp likely decided, why not go #1 and get the equivalent of #2 money...instead of going #2 and getting #2 money (or less). He may have gone #3 as well - no doubt team Aiken had talked to the top 3-5 teams as that's where he would fall. The Astros have clearly been not honoring MLB, they're clearly tanking, they're clearly not trying to be competitive (payroll several standard deviations below the average) and they're clearly being cheap here despite making $$ and being in one of the largest markets in the US. Whether you go here or Forbes, the Astros made between $186M and $196M last year. The case of $1.5M should be season as an investment in Nix...even if they "lose" $6.5M and Aiken doesn't throw a pitch in MLB. It's a risk you take in MLB, otherwise, put it in a Vanguard ETF or a coffee can or whatever. There's always some risk. But they haven't acted in good faith of the game by competition standards or by revenue standards. And unless MLB wants to see more of the same down the road, they need to make Houston an example. You can't tank on purpose (psuedo salary cap) and you can't play the draft (may lead to allowing trades for those willing to take the risk). The Astros have been cheap all the way through (add the Springer contract scenario too!) and it started with hurting the fan base (MLB revenue) by tanking the past few years to not being competitive when needed to this Draft. And for that reason, I believe MLB needs to drop the hammer. If they take away their 1st RD pick(s) it will stop them from the incentive of tanking for the season and foreseeable future. Can't enforce the salary/cheapness, but can take away the incentive to tank.

Good share. "Failure to sign the top talent in the draft class over $1.5 million? Check. Lose the ability to sign your second or third most valuable draft asset (measured by bonus amount)? Check. Draw the ire of one of the most successful agents in the game as well as the further scorn of the MLBPA? Check. Leave open the possibility that the commissioner’s office will force you to honor an agreement with your fifth rounder that will effectively cost you seven figures in draft tax and the loss of your next two first rounders? Check."

Wow. We won something. This ain't your dad's Timberwolves!

I agree. May is on the 40-man...I don't understand why he hasn't gotten even so much as a spot start while Darnell, Pino, and Johnson have. He's 24 this year, 25 before next year. Another guy, Chad Christensen, like the guy a lot. Tons of versatility. He's in A-ball and he's 23 now and turns 24 this Fall. So...25 at A+ next year...maybe gets to AA at 25...turns 26 that Fall. 2016...starts at AA...maybe AAA...he's 27 before he even gets a cup of coffee? Have a feeling May and Meyer are on paths to get turn 25 before they get 5 MLB starts in. I'd be curious how many pitchers were successful in MLB who didn't have 5 MLB starts by age 25.

+1 Closers can be had pretty easily, e.g. the Street package and SABR will show they are about as impactful as the SB. And you can easily just take a failed SP (eg. From Eckersley to Perkins, Balfour, etc) and make him a starter. Voila. If Street can get the package he did, Perkins can get the equivalent or more and in the same regard, if the tWINS are competing one year, they can also acquire a guy just as easy. Also...the impact of a 9th inning closer hasn't had much of an affect on winning the game. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-flawed-importance-of-the-closer/ http://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/09/27/eighth-inningrelievers [h=1]MLB W-L When Leading[/h] [TABLE=class: alt-rows] Year After Seven Innings After Eight Innings [TR=class: last] 2013 (entering Thursday) .897 .945 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 2010 .917 .955 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 2005 .904 .955 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 2000 .900 .950 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1995 .898 .947 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1990 .914 .955 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1985 .906 .948 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1980 .897 .946 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1975 .903 .949 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1970 .895 .944 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1965 .901 .950 [/TR] [TR=class: last] 1960 .899 .947 [/TR] [/TABLE] Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Hoping they move: Willingham Suzuki Correia Perkins Burton Morales My bets: Suzuki Willingham

My bad... What I meant to say was: a 19 year old in a league where he was 3 years younger than his competition who had a stat line of 9-4 W-L 2.94 ERA and 112 IP 101 K with only 3 HR allowed. But honestly, if that's not dominating A-ball...what is? I didn't say dominating AA prospect or MLB prospect. 3 years younger...

I'm kinda relieve they're far apart - as the Twins aren't going in with the one-year wonder that is this year in Suzuki. I don't think anything more than 2 years would be beneficial for the Twins. Pinto lacks confidence more than ability. And he played sparingly, so likely set him up to dwell on a few mistakes versus work it out. Offensively, we can't expect even a .265 season next year out of Suzuki, being realistic about it. Possible, but not likely. Pinto would likely offer just as much offensive value (HR, BB's while hitting .240) and if there's 'defensive metrics' that are meaningful...Suzuki is the "Worst" defensive catcher in MLB among starters. Turner, our defensive catcher, is hitting .240-ish at A+. Garver is hitting well at A, but not sure on his defense. If Suzuki doesn't find 2 years for 7/8 worthwhile...well honestly, I hope they trade him - and perhaps, let the FA market work itself out in the Fall...and if they find the value to be worth the $$...offer him that deal then. I'm kinda excited to see what he could bring in return with the 'coupe' we got for Drew Butera last year. Would think if Butera brought in a 19 year old dominating A type of prospect with some potential, couldn't Suzuki bring in a AA/AAA player who's doing well...?

Boy that Rickey Henderson card brings flashbacks. Add that to the barrel chested shirtless Kirby Puckett in that series too.

Tim Belcher AND Travis Lee... (sighs)

So...they lost Mac Marshall as well (21st pick), if I'm understanding this correctly... Though hard to say 'lost' as often times HS and JR's taken after the top 10 rounds go back to school to improve their draft position/bonus compensation. So really they're just getting the #2 pick overall next year. Kinda stinks for Nix, as they didn't have to honor a contract he agreed to - but must not have been able to sign it. IF he had, it appears they'd lose the next 2 first round picks if he had...and would have been 3, if Aiken had not signed. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/sources-astros-aiken-unable-to-reach-deal?ymd=20140718&content_id=85103476&vkey=news_mlb

Without a doubt, no. Not even if he was given to us for no prospects, just pay his salary. "Return to Sender."

Lightfoot, you're probably right. But gosh dang...yeah...if he does 4 for 4. That's something.