twinsfan34

The way I see Jeter is a heady player who played to the best of his abilities. I never once thought, he could be better than he is or he could have given more effort or been smarter in this situation or that situation. That I will give him. I will give him the fact he's a tough out too. "Clutch" is out there as far as if that's real (ask the SABR community). I think the fact he was in as many post seasons and arguably the best stretch of wins (be interesting to check career Winning % of players) as about any MLB player. Overrated as a SS, defensively, absolutely yes. I feel he was likely average to below average defender his whole career. But offensively...I honestly don't have a grasp of how good Honus Wagner was other than some metrics that help put some context to his stats, which are great. OPS+ to extra base hits to batting average and stolen bases. And it seems he was quite the defender. Add to that, players of his generation, say he was the best. I'm a big baseball card collector, so part of the 'mystique' of Honus Wager is the fact his card was/is the most treasured/talked/valuable card of all time. That said, I'd have to say Jeter is about as good offensively as anyone is at the position. I liked Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken. Ozzie was fun to watch. I never quite felt he was a great hitter though. Cal Ripken, just the hard worker, better offensively than Smith, but not as fun to watch defensively. I went to about 5-8 baseball games when he played at the Dome. Was definitely a game changer. Barry Larkin, now he was similar to Jeter (to me) offensively. A tough out, fouling off pitches to contact when contact needed to be made, but also a great defender. I honestly can't put A-Rod in there...maybe first 3 years of his career are steroid free. Not long enough for me to be considered for a top SS in the game. A-Rod also an overrated defender at SS. Even so, he only played SS until he was 27 (8 seasons - same as Ernie Banks). Banks by the way, hit 40+ HR 5x in those 8 seasons at short (steroid free), 2x MVP, and a better defender than BOTH Jeter and A-Rod. Robin Yount had 9 seasons at SS too...including a MVP and a GG. Luis Aparicio has to be considered...a HOFer, 9 GG's, first 9 seasons in the bigs he led the league in SB. Bert Campaneris?? Spirit of Dave...only nit-picking as you have the only list here - but I don't know how Ernie Banks doesn't make your top 9 at SS...??? If A-Rod had the same # of seasons - Banks was clearly the superior player during their tenures at SS. 1. Honus Wagner 2. Cal Ripken, Jr. 3. Ernie Banks 4. Derek Jeter 5. Barry Larkin 6. Ozzie Smith 7. Robin Young 8. Luis Aparicio Again, for me, A-Rod had at most 3 seasons steroid free and only 8 seasons total at the position. So put an (*) there for him.

The way I see Jeter is a heady player who played to the best of his abilities. I never once thought, he could be better than he is or he could have given more effort or been smarter in this situation or that situation. That I will give him. I will give him the fact he's a tough out too. "Clutch" is out there as far as if that's real (ask the SABR community). I think the fact he was in as many post seasons and arguably the best stretch of wins (be interesting to check career Winning % of players) as about any MLB player. Overrated as a SS, defensively, absolutely yes. I feel he was likely average to below average defender his whole career. But offensively...I honestly don't have a grasp of how good Honus Wagner was other than some metrics that help put some context to his stats, which are great. OPS+ to extra base hits to batting average and stolen bases. And it seems he was quite the defender. Add to that, players of his generation, say he was the best. I'm a big baseball card collector, so part of the 'mystique' of Honus Wager is the fact his card was/is the most treasured/talked/valuable card of all time. I liked Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken. Ozzie was fun to watch. I never quite felt he was a great hitter though. Cal Ripken, just the hard worker, better offensively than Smith, but not as fun to watch defensively. I went to about 5-8 baseball games when he played at the Dome. Was definitely a game changer. Barry Larkin, now he was similar to Jeter (to me) offensively. A tough out, fouling off pitches to contact when contact needed to be made, but also a great defender. I honestly can't put A-Rod in there...maybe first 3 years of his career are steroid free. Not long enough for me to be considered for a top SS in the game. A-Rod also an overrated defender at SS. Even so, he only played SS until he was 27 (8 seasons - same as Ernie Banks). Banks by the way, hit 40+ HR 5x in those 8 seasons at short (steroid free), 2x MVP, and a better defender than BOTH Jeter and A-Rod. Robin Yount had 9 seasons at SS too...including a MVP and a GG. Luis Aparicio has to be considered...a HOFer, 9 GG's, first 9 seasons in the bigs he led the league in SB. Bert Campaneris?? Spirit of Dave...only nit-picking as you have the only list here - but I don't know how Ernie Banks doesn't make your top 9 at SS...??? If A-Rod had the same # of seasons - Banks was clearly the superior player during their tenures at SS. 1. Honus Wagner 2. Cal Ripken, Jr. 3. Ernie Banks 4. Derek Jeter 5. Barry Larkin 6. Ozzie Smith 7. Robin Young 8. Luis Aparicio Again, for me, A-Rod had at most 3 seasons steroid free and only 8 seasons total at the position. So put an (*) there for him.

The only other season I could think of was by Campanella (1953) Bench (named for NL season), Piazza (1997), and Pudge (1999). Mauer is the only active player on either list.

Couldn't have said it better myself. I'd rather guess here and get it wrong at $5M-$7M per than Drew. I guess the question for the Twins isn't so much about money though, but rather how they feel about Danny Santana. I'm along the lines of having 2 bullets in our SS gun...can't count on Santana as a 'can't miss' prospect - unlike Buxton and Sano - who have 'floors' that would play on the Twins (and most clubs) any year. Buxton's is a floor Devon White, Torii Hunter, Cesar Cedeno, or Marquis Grissom type. Sano's floor is Dean Palmer or Mark Reynolds type. Polanco doesn't look like he'll be able to transition to SS. He's only going to be 20 this year and some guys add strength at that age. So still plausible. It looks like his bat will place him more than anything. I'm also fine with drafting Trea Turner...unless he had some glaring hole...if available at #5. SS's are at a premium. Hard to find. He has the speed, the arm, and the range. He may never hit more than 12-15 HR...but could hit .280 with his speed without much fanfare along with 35-55 SB a season. Works for me.

You have to be kidding...right? Where are the Brewers going to get 12 WAR more from their players while the Twins players do not improve at all??? The Brewers only had 8 Wins more than arguably the worst Twins team ever (2013). Central Detroit Tigers (93-69) F Cleveland Indians (92-70) F Kansas City Royals (86-76) F Minnesota Twins (66-96) F Chicago White Sox (63-99) F Central St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) F Pittsburgh Pirates (94-68) F Cincinnati Reds (90-72) F Milwaukee Brewers (74-88) F Chicago Cubs (66-96) F As far as off-season 2014. Brewers lost their leadoff hitter for a spot reliever from the Royals. They signed Garza. They get a full season from Ryan Braun. So Garza...maybe...maybe 3 WAR...Braun goes Mike Trout on the world? His best WAR season is 5.9 bWAR. And he's going to be 30 this year and coming off the juice. Which hasn't fared well for many players (Melky Cabrera, A-Rod, et al). Where does the 12 WAR come from? And assuming the Twins don't improve at all... But... The Twins signed Nolasco, Hughes, and get a 2nd year after surgery from Pelfrey. Willingham is coming back. Hicks could do better. Only player who could do 'worse' is Brian Dozier, every other player or position could only improve. Can't say that about the Brewers. 12 more WAR...from who? And the Twins have to NOT improve. Makes no sense. Add to that, the Cardinals and Pirates are only getting better in 2014. Wacha and Martinez will be up all year. Peralta is an improvement at SS. Tavarez may start with the club. A whole healthy season from Allen Craig? The Pirates...a whole season of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Gregory Polanco may be up by June. Jameson Taillon as well. Now for the AL Central: The Indians could lose their TOP 2 staters - Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir (already lost to the A's). The Tigers? They got Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder (downgrade). Lost Jonny Paralta to the Cardinals in free agency. They pretty much gave away a 200 innings #3 (Doug Fister) to the Nationals for a backup 2B and 2 relief pitching prospects. The lost their closer, Joaquin Benoit, but signed Nathan. Then they lost arguably one of the top 5 managers of the past 40 years in Jim Leyland. The Royals may lose Ervin Santana. Again...the Twins got better in their own division while the rest of the Division seems to be getting worse. As far as the Prospects I listed. Let's just go with "Top 100 BA prospects" instead of "great" it's more exact. I didn't even list the Twins pitching prospects for overall record, just for those who would help Nolasco get more wins than Garza. Twins have more pitching depth than hitting depth in the Minors. And it was for possibilities to affect 2015 (Nolasco's 3rd season - as the context of my reply is important). Of those prospects... Top 100 Baseball America Prospects: Oswald Arcia #41 (2012) Aaron Hicks #19 (2010) Byron Buxton #1 (2014) Miguel Sano #top 10 (2014) Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco may make a top 100 (my copy hasn't arrived yet). The Brewers: Taylor Juggmann #70 (2012) Jed Bradley #71 (2012) And honestly, it looks like neither of those guys will make the Pros. They don't have a top Prospect for 2014 in the top 100 for any publication. AKA...no help likely in sight for a minimum of 4 years. Advantage Twins for the next 4 years...easy. No contest unless they land a Buxton or two in the draft (not likely with their 20+ wins over the Twins though). Free Agency 2014? I'd say the Twins have the advantage unless the Brewers land someone better to give them the edge. 20+ Wins though...

If Stewart is a top prospect, I've ran some queries for high school pitchers and it would seem if he's going to be a 4+ WAR a year type of pitcher, he'll be up in 3.7 years or less. If he's going to be below 4 WAR it'll take longer than the 3.7 years. If he takes more than 6 years, he'll be lucky to put up 8 career WAR and would most likely be a reliever/spot starter. The 6 years also factors in lost time to injury (left it in as it often affects pitching performance). 3.7 years is May 2017 for those of your keeping track at home.

I'm with you Joe. I feel more confident about Nolasco getting 180+ innings all 4 years than Garza getting 150+ innings all 4 years. I also feel the Twins in year 3 of this arrangement will be considerably better than the Brewers. The Brewers don't have a farm system with any talent in sight. The Twins have the following possible contributors offer an improvement over what was on the field in 2013 to help out Nolasco in 2015. C: Pinto, Turner 2B: Rosario, Polanco SS: Santana 3B: Sano OF: Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Kepler I don't know if these guys ever become starters: Travis Harrison, Kennys Vargas, Dalton Hicks, Adam Brett Walker, Niko Goodrum, JD Williams. And these guys who almost assuredly won't be ready, but might be starter worthy: Amauris Minier, Brian Navarreto, Lewin Diaz, Position player from 2014 and 2015 Drafts given he's top 2 Rounds, and others TBD.

Just checked... Fangraphs hitters and pitchers = 2.2 + 1.7 = 3.9 WAR Baseball-Reference = 5.4 and 3.2 = 8.6 WAR Houston Astros 51 Wins... so Fangraphs would come out the winner there... How about the Angels, who have a big time player in Mike Trout...does that mess with the stats? Fangraphs = 26.3 + 10.4 = 36.7 WAR Baseball-Reference = 25.6 + 9.0 = 34.6 WAR Angels had 78 Wins... Fangraphs WAR would say they had 84 wins, B-R 82 wins. How about a team like the Cardinals, with a lot of wins... Cardinals...97 wins.. Fangraphs: 23.3 + 16.8 = 40.1 WAR or 87 Wins... B-R: 19.9 + 21.5 = 41.4 WAR or roughly 89 Wins...

Another factor is that some players will have positive WAR and others will have negative WAR instead of it just 'zero-ing' out. So the Astros probably had guys who were negatives as well as a few guys who had positive, but probably pretty close to 4 or 5 WAR to add to that 47 WIN mark. But yes, agree, it's an impressive stat, but not without it's 'flaws' as far as perfection goes.

One... Santana or not...and well, even if Sano or not (90% sure he's there to start), it's definitely going to be fun to catch some Rock Cat games. Envious there. I imagine Santana will likely go to whichever place (NB or Roch) that has a chance for him to play everyday SS. That said, he did plenty well at AA (.297/.333/.386) to warrant a jump to AAA. Terry Ryan seems high on him as well. Though, he and Radcliffe maybe just like Shortshops with the recent news on Engelb Vielma. Not to say TR likes Vielma there. Polanco likely starts at A+...what if he's raking it? Will he continue to get time at SS? What aif he's ready for AA by June/July. AAA doesn't offer much more than AA, in fact, it's usually lower velocity, more control type of players. Very few 'prospects' spend more than a month or two in AAA. So sure, there's craftier pitchers, but I would say the level of the stuff may even be lower. And definitely by late July when anyone who's done well in AAA is likely called up to the bigs.

Wow, me too. Totally forgot about the Aussie Winter League...despite having just visited there a few weeks earlier. Thorpe's game log: http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l595&t=p_pbp&pid=626929 Other Pitchers in the Aussie Lg: http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_pit&sid=l595&lid=595

I didn't know that! Good stuff. Guess I need to watch more Nationals games vs. Harper's ESPN highlights

I'm on the Thorpe bandwagon too. The numbers at the GCL, the quality of his pitchers, the BB/K rates - all nice indicators to at least be aware of the guy, even if the best some of us (me) can see of him is a few YouTube and scouting videos vs an actual game or in person game. I wonder this, how many players who played in the short season rookie league the season before, who were not a top round draft pick (1st or 2nd RD) and not a college athlete, have made the top 100 Prospects list? You probably see a few of the Miguel Sano's...but then, take out top international signing and it's gotta be a pretty small number. I know Oscar Taveras and Hanley Ramirez were big time 'finds' (cheap IFA's) but they were noticed after A-ball. Seems like Thorpe would be in a pretty small list of players who had no pedigree, young teen, and flat out impressed from what they did in the Rookie League. e.g.Appalachian League, Arizona League, Gulf Coast League, & Pioneer League

Agree with most everyone here, in that I like it for both teams. The Twins weren't going to have much of a difference for keeping Span and it would/could make a difference for the Nationals. Meyer has enough upside to even if he does 'better' (WAR) than Span, the timing of it made it a good trade because Meyer couldn't give those 2-4 Wins that Span could at that time. It's why I'm not so hot on Stephen Drew at this time. I don't see the necessity of spending $10-12M per for a 1...maybe 2 Win upgrade over a $500k a year player and when his timing of contribution to a winner, 2015 and beyond, is very slim.

Good stuff Parker. Yeah, when I heard Law say that about his foot, I was like "whaaaaa?" as I saw Buxton highlights from Ft. Myers and 2 games in the AFL, and he still seemed to pull the back leg off the ground before contact. Harper's swing shows a great 'coil' and weight transfer, as you eluded to, he's not loosing power. Watch his BP and you'll see 430-480 ft shots with regularity. But his weight is fully uncoiling. The shoulder facing the pitcher tucks towards the back hip, and then the straightening of that leg and uncoiling (opening up) that shoulder away from that back hip, and the hands following through uncoils the power and lift. I don't quite see that for Buxton yet, what he has is tremendously quick hands/wrists. If (when?) he gets his base...and, in my humble and unprofessional opinion, that front leg straightens to allow the weight transfer to go through the ball - he'l add a lot more power. The only problem with Harper's swing (weight transfer is fine)...is I see it more limiting in that it commits his power to a 'shorter range' of pitch timing. Once he's committed, the stars have to align so to speak...and when they do, he hits it a ton. If he can keep a longer (better?) balance...would seem he would increase the likelihood of his power impacting more balls through the zone as the power trigger of his swing can 'wait' longer. The 'great hitters' seem to have the barrel of their bat in the swing zone for longer than others...and are able to still keep some 'weight transfer' back for almost any ball they hit even if they're 'late' on the ball...and it just flies over the opposite field wall. I think this was more of an emphasis in hitters pre 1990's. Better contact ratios...perhaps more line drives (don't have the stats to prove that). But the difference is in the Vlad Guerrero and Henry Aaron types to the more prominent fly ball (lift/pull) hitters we see today. Another curiosity, and there's likely a great many factors affecting this (pitch velocity, fence distance on the LF/RF porches on classic stadiums, etc), but on home runs...is there a trend towards more pull home runs vs opposite field home runs? Here's Hank Aaron bringing his foot up just after contact. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/Hank%20Aaron%20Batting%20Practice.jpg You can also see a little as well (swing starts at 1:05), but, much like Harper, you can also see that leg straight and torque through the contact of the ball. But he's able to stay back much longer than Harper So...again...not a professional batting instructor...I'd say that front leg is maybe a little bit more indicative of the power transferred or lost on a swing than the back leg. Frank Thomas is a lot like Bryce Harper, but his weight isn't shifting forward as quick, and then and the torque/whips through the hips.

[TABLE=width: 610] Year BA Rank Player POS Age Grade Consensus?? 1985 N/A Bo Jackson CF 22[TD=align: right]80[/TD] Consensus 1988 N/A Ken Griffey, Jr CF 18[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 1990 29 Frank Thomas 1B-DH 22[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 1990 76 Mo Vaughn 1B 22[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 1999 1 J.D. Drew RF 23[TD=align: right]80[/TD] [/TD] 2001 1 Josh Hamilton CF-LF 20[TD=align: right]80 consensus 2002 10 Mark Teixeira 1B 22[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 2003 12 Miguel Cabrera 3B 20[TD=align: right]80[/TD] [/TD] 2004 10 Prince Fielder 1B 20[TD=align: right]80 consensus 2005 27 Ryan Howard 1B 25[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 2009 16 Giancarlo Stanton RF 19[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 2010 8 Pedro Alvarez 3B 23[TD=align: right]80[/TD] [/TD] 2011 1 Bryce Harper CF-RF 18[TD=align: right]80 consensus 2011 60 Miguel Sano 3B 18[TD=align: right]80[/TD] consensus 1990 4 Juan Gonzalez RF-LF 20[TD=align: right]70[/TD] [/TD] 1990 33 Dean Palmer 3B 21[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1990 40 Tino Martinez 1B 22[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1991 18 Tino Martinez 1B 23[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1991 60 Dean Palmer 3B 22[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1993 4 Carlos Delgado 1B 21[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1993 13 Manny Ramirez DH 21[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1994 1 Cliff Floyd LF-OF 21[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1994 5 Carlos Delgado 1B 22[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1994 6 Alex Rodriguez 3B 18[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1994 7 Manny Ramirez DH 22[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1995 1 Alex Rodriguez 3B 19[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1997 2 Vladimir Guerrero LF 22[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 2000 24 Drew Henson 3B 20[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 2000 56 Adam Dunn DH-1B 20[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 2012 10 Wil Myers CF 20[TD=align: right]70 [/TD] 1990 9 Greg Vaughn LF 24[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1990 42 Larry Walker RF 23[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1991 73 Tim Salmon RF 22[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1991 93 Jim Thome DH 20[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1993 5 Tim Salmon RF 24[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1993 20 Javy Lopez C 22[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1993 30 Phil Nevin 3B-1B 22[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1994 17 Javy Lopez C 23[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1995 38 Paul Konerko 1B 19[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1997 19 Richard Hidalgo RF-CF 21[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1999 13 Lance Berkman 1B 23[TD=align: right]60 [/TD] 1999 29 Russell Branyan 1B 23[TD=align: right]60 [TD][/TD] [/TABLE]

So I did some research, mostly looking through grades on found on the Top 100 Prospect lists at these websites: http://scouts.baseballhall.org/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-scouts-saw-roy-halladay-and-todd-helton/ Baseball America archives of players (Scroll to the bottom, click on prospect rankings/tools archives) These are not necessarily 'consensus 80 grade' prospects, For instance, Pedro Alvarez and J.D. Drew had multiple reports that went like this 65-70-75-80, depending on the scout. I left some players in the 60's and 70's to show players I found, in case there was some wondering if they were 80's or not (they may be by some scout), but wouldn't be a consensus like Sano and the others where I found it seemed to be a consensus across multiple scouts or scouting services. I found the ages to be of interest too. A few guys, like Cabrera and Teixeira, it didn't specifically say "80 grade" however, a few sites (BA), said "expect 35-40 HR a season" to which, if you take the grade projections, that would be an 80 by any system I could find. Some systems have 80 grade as 35+ others have 39+, either way, that'd be an '80' grade. So I didn't put consensus for them as a few other indicators said '30+ HR a season'... There's 13 '80 grades' here, counting Drew, Alvarez, and the others that didn't seem to be consensus. Joey Gallo is not a top 100 prospect by many publications...and also, not an 80 as they're not sure he'll ever make that much contact. Sano said, if he gets 150 games, he'd hit 40, 45...55. Bo didn't make it, yet, his high was 135 games and he hit 32 HR. JD Drew hit 31 in 145 games. I'm not sure either would have hit 40 HR though, at any point. I'd take Bo over JD. Stanton hit 43 HR in 2010 splitting time at AA and MLB. Leaving Bryce Harper and Pedro Alvarez as the only guys left who haven't hit 40 HR. Pretty cool. It's not perfect system - but it was a good question of guys with '80 grade' and how they fared as far as hitting 40 HR. Most managed to get it. And as far as Pedro Alvarez, I bet Sano could better Alvarez' numbers in MLB in 2014, no problem. I'd take the bet. I doubt the Twins would be happy with that kind of AVG/OBP/SLG though. But I could be wrong. .233/.296/.473 36 HR and 48/186 BB/SO. And because of character limits...I'll post the list in the next post...

On Gallo: Curious, did he make any Top 100/101 lists? I don't think he made Keith Law's 100. MLB.com had him #92. He didn't make Baseball Prospectus top 101. He struck out 37% of the time...at Class A. Progression that's like 55-60% of his MLB at-bats. Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds....strike out a lot...and hit around .200, well, Gallo would be worse than that. Both of those guys did quite a bit better than he did against A level pitching. Here's an article by Conor Glassey on Gallo and strikeouts. Lots of precedents to overcome.

Ditto!! I'd a paid Roy Halladay $6M a year to be on the IR and be around the clubhouse. I think the Cardinals having Chris Carpenter "on staff IR" all year the past few years has helped those young guys tremendously. If he can get Meyer to where he sees him ("Ace"), it's $500K + $6M for an Ace end cost. Sounds like a steal of a deal to me.

Law is hilarious....check this out... http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/49921/mlb-insider-keith-law [h=6]Adam (LA)[/h] Can you actually answer questions about players on the list rather than just the people whining about guys who didn't make it? [h=6]Klaw (1:21 PM) [/h] Maybe, if you stop hitting the Submit button repeatedly like a crack-addicted rat in a lab maze. [h=6]Devon (Some mountain)[/h] How in the world did Edwin Escobar not make your list? [h=6]Klaw (1:17 PM) [/h] Because 100 other prospects were better. Seriously, that's a clown question. Give me a reason why Escobar belonged.

I don't know enough about Lindor, though he might have the highest WAR out of the bunch. He projects as Ozzie Smith, the BB/SO ratio to the great defense. Not many people realize that Ozzie, in a 13 year stretch, had 10 seasons of 5 WAR or more. Position adjusted of course helped, but still impressive for any position. For me, Baez, poses the biggest flameout of the bunch and more risk than Sano. I think Russell and Correa will be great. Not sure I'd trade Sano for either though. As much as a "good shortstop" is in this league, a 3B who can hit 35+ HR is pretty rare (Cabrera, though now moving to 1B).

Wow... Addison Russell, #3. Well, he was 19...and he A+ ball pretty well. Interesting, he only has 5 Twins on the top 100, but yet, felt they were neck and neck with the Astros for the #1 overall farm system. Astros had 9 guys?

For 1991, Baseball America top 100, position players only...who are the '70-80' grade power guys? I see Mo Vaughn getting some 80 grade powers, he did hit 40 HR. Tino had a 70 grade by some. Palmer, in one scouting report says 'power bat'...but no grades. Couldn't find anyone else, by minor league stats or reports to be any sort of power prospect. Klesko has a 60 grade in one report. [TABLE=width: 256] Rank Prospect Name Pos 2 Andujar Cedeno SS 3 Ryan Klesko LF-1B 4 Jose Offerman SS-2B 7 Ivan Rodriguez C 8 Reggie Sanders RF-LF 9 Mark Lewis 2B-3B 10 Mo Vaughn 1B 11 Bernie Williams CF 12 Wil Cordero LF-SS 13 Rondell White LF-CF 14 Raul Mondesi RF-CF 17 Tim Costo RF-1B 18 Tino Martinez 1B 20 Jeff McNeely CF 22 Eddie Zosky SS 23 Royce Clayton SS 25 Mark Whiten RF-LF 28 Tyler Houston 3B-C 29 Henry Rodriguez LF 30 Hensley Meulens LF 31 Marc Newfield LF 32 Jeff Bagwell 1B 35 Rico Brogna 1B 37 Willie Greene 3B 39 Gary Scott 3B 44 D.J. Dozier LF 45 Jeff Conine 1B-LF 46 Tim Naehring 3B-2B 47 Brook Fordyce C 49 Chipper Jones 3B 51 Ray Lankford LF 52 Steve Decker C 55 Wes Chamberlain RF-LF 59 Todd Hundley C 60 Dean Palmer 3B 61 Leo Gomez 3B 62 Carlos Garcia 2B 64 Greg Blosser LF 67 Kerwin Moore CF 68 Pat Kelly 2B 70 Dave Staton 1B 72 Chuck Knoblauch 2B 73 Tim Salmon RF 74 Tom Goodwin CF-LF 75 Kenny Lofton CF 78 Reggie Jefferson 1B-LF 82 Ricky Gutierrez SS 83 Steve Hosey RF 85 Greg Colbrunn 1B 87 Earl Cunningham OF 88 Carl Everett CF-RF 92 William Suero 2B 93 Jim Thome DH 94 Eric Karros 1B 95 Dan Wilson C 96 Willie Ansley OF 99 Bret Boone 2B 100 Dan Peltier RF-1B [/TABLE]

BA top 100 list for 1990. Position players only. [TABLE=width: 258] Rank Prospect Name Pos 3 John Olerud 1B 4 Juan Gonzalez RF-LF 5 Sandy Alomar C 7 Todd Zeile 3B-1B 8 Eric Anthony RF-LF 9 Greg Vaughn LF 10 Jose Offerman SS-2B 12 Delino DeShields 2B 15 Robin Ventura 3B 17 Marquis Grissom CF 19 Ray Lankford LF 22 Ty Griffin SS 24 Mark Lewis 2B-3B 25 Wes Chamberlain RF-LF 28 Reggie Jefferson 1B-LF 29 Frank Thomas 1B-DH 30 Tom Goodwin CF-LF 31 Bob Hamelin 1B 33 Dean Palmer 3B 34 Braulio Castillo CF-RF 37 Moises Alou LF-RF 38 Willie Ansley OF 39 Travis Fryman 3B-SS 40 Tino Martinez 1B 41 Mickey Morandini 2B 42 Larry Walker RF 43 Donald Harris CF-RF 44 Earl Cunningham OF 49 Glenallen Hill RF-LF 52 Steve Hosey RF 53 Deion Sanders CF-LF 54 Felix Jose RF 55 Andujar Cedeno SS 57 Rico Brogna 1B 58 Tom Redington 3B 59 Manny Alexander SS-2B 62 Wil Cordero LF-SS 63 Eric Wedge C 65 Todd Hundley C 66 Willie Greene 3B 67 Carlos Baerga 2B 68 Scott Cooper 3B-1B 70 Rick Wilkins C 71 Darren Lewis CF 72 Derrick May LF 74 Dan Peltier RF-1B 75 Derek Bell RF-CF 76 Mo Vaughn 1B 77 Bernie Williams CF 79 Mickey Pina OF 82 Kevin Belcher CF-RF 83 Phil Plantier LF-RF 84 Eric Karros 1B 89 Thomas Howard LF-CF 91 Paul Sorrento 1B 92 Tyler Houston 3B-C 93 David Segui 1B 94 Scott Coolbaugh 3B 97 Brian Jordan RF-LF 99 Jose Vizcaino SS-2B [/TABLE]

Small, yes. But this needs some context. As Sano isn't just any random MLB player and his odds of hitting 40 HR. I think Sano said 40 HR this year (joking, but serious) and wasn't persay at the MLB level, though I imagine some of his 40 total would include MLB level. But a more contextually relevant comparison is 40 HR for 'power prospects' who were top 10 Baseball America prospects (longer history than BP or MLB, more data points). Maybe look at top 10 prospects, top 20 prospects, top 100...given they are 'power projected' prospects. And this is 40 HR in the majors, or just in a season? e.g. Stanton in 2010 (21 at AA, 22 at MLB, 43 total) I've seen 70 grades go for 27-34 HR...and some weighted standard error with SD's that would give a 70 grade 30-38 HR. Here's some prospects from BA's 1990. I've seen some scouting reports on Frank Thomas while at Auburn, most gave him a 70 or 80. I can't find anything concrete on Juan Gonzalez, whether 70 or 80 power grade at that age. I see one scouting report for Greg Vaughn saying 'plus' power potential, which is only a 60 grade...but he did hit 40 HR. Clearly power was seen there, but maybe not a 'power prospect' Cant' find anything on Eric Anthony. Reggie Jefferson, Bobe Hamelin, Dean Palmer, Tino Martinez, Larry Walker, Glenallen Hill, Phil Plantier might be potential 70 grade power guys or 60. Maybe include them all? This is a very curious study...might be higher than one might think. Jefferson and Hameline never were healthy for a full season. Palmer hit 38 twice. Martinez and Walker both hit 40+. Hill only had 31 in the minors, 29 in the majors. Plantier hit 34 in his only full season in the Majors. So out of 11 'power-ish' guys, 5 managed 40 bombs in a season, and Palmer had a few seasons of 38.