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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I agree, except for his $8.5M price tag. He's worth it but the Twins aren't going to want to spend that on a backup.
  2. DJL44
    The league batted .243 this season and that's with a full-time DH in the NL.
  3. DJL44
    If they can't find a placeholder shortstop better than Palacios they aren't looking very hard. I think it is 100% certain Correa will opt out but there is still a good chance he returns to the Twins. Need intersects with opportunity. They will find a spot for Royce Lewis.
  4. DJL44
    No, but they're making decisions (this pitcher is unavailable today) like it does have that certainty. Analytics can tell you trends but there is so much noise around athletic performance on a given day. With insufficient data, assume the base rate but be prepared to deviate from "the plan" if a pitcher is having a good day. Data analytics can't tell you about individual performance on a certain day.
  5. DJL44
    There are weirder moves they could make. They once played Miguel Sano in the outfield.
  6. DJL44
    That's the same as a non-tender and a free agent offer. I understand wanting to "punish" a player for performing badly by cutting his pay but a 1 year $3M contract for Pagan isn't going to make a bit of difference in next season's budget. If you want him pay him, if not cut him. The real cost of Pagan is he fills a roster spot which might be better used on a different pitcher.
  7. DJL44
    Do they still exist? I thought all we had left were bloggers and game recap software bots.
  8. DJL44
    Remember this in a few years. No managers from this era deserve the Hall of Fame. They're just following orders.
  9. DJL44
    This is partly because the same organizations told all of their batters to continue pulling the ball to try to hit dingers. Nobody was willing to be the contrarian and use speed to bunt to beat the shift.
  10. DJL44
    The spreadsheet says that everything about athletic performance being related to attitude, desire and determination is complete ********. I would say there has always been some ******** when it comes to mental attitude determining who wins and loses an athletic contest (you want me to believe the other guy didn't want to win?) but it isn't ALL ********. Athletes can rise above their median level of performance with focus and determination. A player who isn't prepared on a certain day isn't going to do well. More importantly - weird, unpredictable stuff happens ALL THE TIME in baseball.
  11. DJL44
    But they have already said they aren't changing anything about how he'll be managed in 2023. Find another team even more absorbed in the spreadsheet and convince them he's a stud based on the last 2 months. Trade him to that team for someone else.
  12. DJL44
    There seems to be a lot of decisions made based on broad overall trends that don't acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in the data. Managing a bullpen based on how the average reliever performed with a certain workload in the past without figuring out that the relievers in your current bullpen aren't all average. Athletes are not dice, they're not as predictable as people want to believe. There is a lot of "special cause" variation that isn't related to "common cause" trends. One simple example - the manager is going to know which guys partied all night last night and are hungover. The spreadsheet won't.
  13. DJL44
    I believe that's how it works in the expansion draft, not the Rule 5 draft.
  14. DJL44
    Buxton is a righthanded batter.
  15. DJL44
    Cardinals - Astros could be a fun series. Those franchises are not fond of one another.
  16. DJL44
    He made an adjustment. The league will catch up eventually but they might get some good innings out of him in the meantime.
  17. DJL44
    It is interesting that the pitcher who cost the least contributed the most down the stretch. Focusing on getting years of control of a relief pitcher is kind of dumb given the volatility of relievers. Just find someone who can fill in for the rest of the season. If they want to bring Fulmer back next year it just costs a little bit of money. Having control of Lopez cost them 4 pitching prospects. Fulmer only cost them a pitcher they probably weren't going to protect in the Rule 5 draft.
  18. DJL44
    If you've just hit what might be the only major league home run of your entire career I bet you would enjoy it as much as possible.
  19. DJL44
    I don't know why their infield defense numbers are so bad this season. Urshela and Correa dropped compared to previous seasons. Polanco had the worst season of his career.
  20. DJL44
    It's called the Hank Aaron award. Hank Aaron Award | MLB.com
  21. DJL44
    If Judge is traded for Ohtani the Yankees win the division and the Angels don't make the playoffs. Value isn't determined by how good your teammates are.
  22. DJL44
    A Twins loss and a Red Sox win and they move up a spot in the MLB draft. That seems to be the goal the past few weeks.
  23. DJL44
    Nobody needs to front load a deal. Always better economically to back load it. Money costs less tomorrow. MLB luxury tax will be higher later. If nothing else you can put the "front load" money in the bank and draw interest on it until you have to pay it later.
  24. DJL44
    Most teams want 5 outfielders on the roster. If you only have one a lot of balls fall in for hits.
  25. DJL44
    He's a free agent. If they don't sign Correa they should absolutely try to sign Contreras.
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