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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    With hindsight, this move was probably inevitable after the trade deadline. Levine says he's the risk taker and Falvey is risk averse. They didn't make any deals which implies they aren't listening to Levine anymore.
  2. DJL44
    He needs to be able to learn from his mistakes. Make sure players are prepared to play defense. Quit pinch hitting early in games and giving away the platoon advantage. Pay attention to the opposing team's baserunners.
  3. DJL44
    The MLB minimum salary already sets the floor. If you want a minimum salary of $2M I'm sure the players would agree to that. The players would make less money with cap and floor than they do now. That's why they haven't agreed to it. Fix the revenue sharing incentives so winning is more profitable than losing and filling the stands is a priority.
  4. DJL44
    Miranda seems like a perfectly adequate first baseman. I doubt the Twins have the budget to find anyone better to replace him so I expect him to play a lot at 1B next season. He's not a good fielder at 3B and shouldn't play there except when someone else is injured and unavailable.
  5. DJL44
    Somebody is digging deep in the archives. It's easy to be wrong about prospects. Most people are, including major league front offices. I am very happy with how the Lopez/Arraez trade worked out even though Salas has not turned into anything at all. Arraez has turned into a DH who only hits singles. If he was still on the Twins they would non-tender him this offseason.
  6. DJL44
    If they were "focusing on hitting HR" then they were awful at it. The main reason they stopped scoring in September is they hit fewer HR. HR by month: April 31, May 31, June 37, July 29, August 34, September 21 Runs by month: April 133, May 121, June 150, July 111, August 133, Sept 94 The difference between their hitting in May and September is mostly explained by hitting 10 fewer HR.
  7. DJL44
    I wish Martin's defense was mediocre. He was terrible. He needs a lot of work on his defense. If he can't get better defensively, he's going to wash out of MLB. I don't think Keirsey has the speed or arm strength to be elite on defense. He's certainly better than you would expect given his tools. Good person to stash in AAA and use when Buxton goes on the IL.
  8. DJL44
    It's even more expensive to have TWO crews follow a team around. This is one of the first costs I see getting cut - MLB will likely shrink to a single broadcast crew for each game. Each team will provide one on-air announcer for the booth and the video crew will be locals.
  9. DJL44
    I don't want any of these guys on the opening day roster next season. They're fine for minor league depth but none of them has really earned a spot.
  10. DJL44
    They shouldn't want exclusivity. That is the old, dead model and it isn't returning. Sell the broadcast rights cheaply, increase the audience size as large as you can and make as much money possible on advertising. They should want Twins games available on basic cable packages. They had a model that was 100% subscriptions and 0% ads. They need a new model that is 20% subscriptions and 80% ads.
  11. DJL44
    So $10M off streaming, plus whatever they're still making from cable/satellite.
  12. DJL44
    100% revenue sharing of broadcasting. 0% revenue sharing for local ticket sales, concessions, etc. That's the model that encourages teams to put fans in the stands.
  13. DJL44
    They're making $4.5M in subscriptions. How much are they making selling ads to those subscribers? The real money is in selling the viewing audience to advertisers.
  14. DJL44
    Less than half of people subscribe to cable/dish. Among people 18-30 it's 30%. Those numbers are 2 years old, and cable is shedding millions of viewers each year. Many of the people who have cable subscriptions were unable to get Twins games because BSN was so bad at getting the games broadly distributed. Dish Network hasn't had games for years and Comcast was blacked out for the entire summer. The latest estimates had the Twins reaching 15% of their audience through BSN.
  15. DJL44
    Sports are still great at generating cash on TV. They command high ad rates because people are much less likely to skip the ads. Old model: People with money who don't watch baseball pay MLB a lot of money through cable subscriptions for games they don't watch. People with less money who want to watch baseball can't watch their favorite teams play on television. TV audience actually watching baseball shrinks every year. New model (hopefully): People who actually like watching baseball are able to watch the games of their favorite team without restriction. Number of people watching baseball games on TV increases by 2 to 4 times. Advertisers have a larger pool of people available to watch their advertising. The new model may not make as much money, but it will still make plenty of money. Easier access to games on TV might even grow the sport as more people follow their local teams.
  16. DJL44
    The new coach is going to be judged by how well they work with Royce Lewis.
  17. DJL44
    Every year at least a dozen starters worse than Paddack end up with a spot on an opening day roster.
  18. DJL44
    Edouard Julien OBP in AAA this season was .395. K% was 31%. He doesn't have a problem with OBP, it was his batting average that dropped. He has had to start swinging at pitches he used to just take and wait for something better. He didn't swing at those pitches before because he didn't hit them very well. This is not easy stuff to fix, it takes a complete change in approach. It is very hard in today's MLB to string hits together. League batting average is .243. Your chance of stringing 3 consecutive hits together in an inning is 1.4%. Guys should feel better about hitting a double or a HR than a groundout. If you're going to hit the ball, you want to hit it hard. That is what advances runners. BTW - the Twins were #2 in baseball in doubles. They actually had the best offense in their division and were 10th in OPS+. They were 2nd to last in Total Zone Fielding runs and 25th in DRS. Firing the hitting coaches isn't going to improve their defense.
  19. DJL44
    The entire Marlins coaching staff is available. John Mabry has a decent reputation as a hitting coach.
  20. DJL44
    Looks like the Athletics don't have a broadcast partner either. The Diamondbacks, Rockies and Padres were already handled by MLB. That's 15 teams MLB controls. Astros own their RSN with the Rockets. Blue Jays owned by Rogers Communications. Braves are the last Diamond Sports team. Cubs own Marquee Sports Network. Dodgers co-owners of Spectrum SportsNet LA. Giants co-own NBC Sports Bay Area. Mariners own ROOT Sports Northwest. Mets have a deal with SNY. Nationals and Orioles co-own Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. Pirates co-own SportsNet Pittsburgh. Red Sox co-own New England Sports Network. White Sox have a deal with NBC Sports Chicago. Phillies have a deal with NBC Sports Philadelphia. Yankees own YES.
  21. DJL44
    I am hoping the solution is MLB Network for cable/satellite and streaming on MLB.tv.
  22. DJL44
    They'll probably sign a bunch of pitchers who weren't DFA'd 3 times but only because they pitched the whole season in AAA. Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed in December. If they sign someone better they can cut him. They can also say "we offer $1M, take it or leave it" and then pick him back up off waivers in May for a higher price.
  23. DJL44
    Interesting developments there. Diamond Sports is giving all their rights back to MLB except for the Braves. MLB can figure out a broadcast solution for the Twins, Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Rangers and Rays as a group.
  24. DJL44
    It's a little the fault of the pitchers. They're really bad at holding runners.
  25. DJL44
    Maki got an All-Star caliber season out of Griffin Jax and turned Woods-Richardson into an effective 4th starter. I'd give him a C.
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