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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    It's already an underpay with Keaschall. Julien for Luzardo would be a trade vetoed by a fantasy baseball commissioner. You don't get top lefthanded starting pitchers for a 3rd option at DH.
  2. DJL44
    You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100. Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.
  3. DJL44
    Trading away Castro would make the infield really weak this season with a gaping hole at either 2B or 3B, depending on where they play Lewis, but this proposal is a net win for the Twins. The Comp A pick would return in two seasons when the Twins offer Luzardo a QO as a free agent. Nardi for CJ Culpepper is a steal. That means you're trading Keaschall for 2 cheap seasons of Luzardo. They might be able to find a prospect as good as Keaschall in a Castro trade. Miami turns this offer down, flat.
  4. DJL44
    Absolutely nobody thinks Randy Dobnak and Walker Jenkins are the same type of talent. However, if Walker Jenkins says he will sign for Randy Dobnak's miniscule contract they would have to be brain-dead stupid not to give him that deal. I would settle for the team giving long-term contracts to players like Jeffers and Duran who have already proven themselves. This front office has been paralyzed since before the 2024 trade deadline in July.
  5. DJL44
    I disagree that Laureano and Bader are "Margot level players". Margot was a below average outfielder and both of those guys can catch the ball. Bader was a Gold Glove winner and he's still pretty damned good.
  6. DJL44
    The upside for Helman and Keirsey is as well-known as it is for any other 28-year-old professional player. Expectations should be quite low. Martin was already tried once and was terrible. I'm not sure what he did last year that makes people want to depend on him this year.
  7. DJL44
    I would sign just about anyone I could find to avoid relying on Martin, Keirsey and Helman.
  8. DJL44
    You're not winning with mediocre AAA players either.
  9. DJL44
    Bubic is a lefty, not a great comp. Stroman is 5'7" tall so not a good comp physically and he's a sinker/slider groundball pitcher vs Woods-Richardson's 4-seam/changeup/curveball repertoire. Justin Verlander throws the same pitches as Woods-Richardson (though harder and better). Domingo German also has the same pitch mix. Those are the best comps I can find after searching for 15 minutes. Let's use those as bookends. If his career is somewhere between German and Verlander the Twins should be happy.
  10. DJL44
    Moving Royce to 1B means they have holes at 3B and 2B. Royce isn't a great fielder at 3B, but he's better than Miranda. The only player on the roster I would want to play everyday at 2B besides Royce Lewis is Willi Castro. A Lee, Correa, Keaschall, Lewis infield with Rodriguez in the outfield would be placing a heavy bet on rookies. That's the risk/reward play. Even with those players in those positions they could still use Laureano as the 5th outfielder.
  11. DJL44
    Exciting, young talent Keirsey was born May 13, 1997. He will be 28 next season. Over the hill, decrepit, aging veteran Bader was born June 3, 1994. Keirsey is younger, but not enough to matter. Both players should be considered finished products.
  12. DJL44
    Hope that they will amount to much with the bat: nobody Hope that they will amount to much with the glove: Keirsey High confidence they will be a great glove, no bat: Bader
  13. DJL44
    I agree. That's why they can't afford to give scholarships to Martin, Keirsey and Helman. They should already be passing over those guys in favor of Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez if they're looking for upside.
  14. DJL44
    Margot would have been a lot more useful if he could still field like he could at his peak. "Margot was a bad veteran addition so the team should never make veteran additions again" is a terrible knee-jerk reactionary take.
  15. DJL44
    Taylor kept the Twins from using Andrew Stevenson as their starting CF in 2023.
  16. DJL44
    Was it a problem that they had to roster Michael A Taylor for the whole season in 2023?
  17. DJL44
    Bader is one of the few CF who are good enough that it would probably make sense to move Buxton to a corner when they're both in the game at the same time.
  18. DJL44
    Like, a LOT, LOT, LOT better defense. Bader is a 95th percentile outfielder and Martin is a 5th percentile outfielder. It's like saying "Byron Buxton is basically Jorge Soler with better defense."
  19. DJL44
    Unlikely he does it as well as Bader.
  20. DJL44
    With Kepler gone there is a real need for another outfielder who can play defense. I see Laureano as a 2+ WAR upgrade on their current backup outfielder options (Martin, Keirsey, Helman) and they can probably sign him for $4M. There is nowhere else on the roster where they can upgrade that much for that little money. If they don't get Laureano they need to obtain someone a lot like him. Ty France, like Josh Bell, is another 1B option who is a downgrade on Jose Miranda. If he wants to try to convert to catcher in AAA then I'm good with giving him a minor league deal.
  21. DJL44
    Martin's defense can only get better because it would be really difficult for him to be worse than how awful he was last season. He's still unlikely to be as good as Laureano in the outfield. Laureano can catch the ball. That's why Laureano's worst full season in the majors is 2 WAR better than Martin was last season.
  22. DJL44
    Twins pitchers were terrible at holding runners. They didn't even try.
  23. DJL44
    You're not arguing with me. You're arguing with the Statcast baserunning metrics. Typically 10 runs = 1 WAR. The metrics say the difference between the best and worst baserunners is 0.5 WAR. That seems low to me, and it is lower than other baserunning calculators (including other calculators from Statcast) which see a 1 -2 WAR difference between worst and best over the length of a season. The standard deviation of this metric is really low. Most of value in baserunning is not running into extra outs. Getting caught stealing or trying to take the extra base is one of the biggest killers of rallies. Slow and fast players are regressed to the mean by the fact that you only have to be fast enough to make it to the next base and in most situations the player can't be fast enough to take two bases instead of one. Plus, with as much scoring by HR as there is in modern MLB the main thing that matters is being on base.
  24. DJL44
    When your worst baserunners are costing the team 2 runs and your best is adding 3 runs over the course of an entire season it's pretty easy to dismiss baserunning as a way to add value to the team. If a slow player hits 2 dingers more than a fast player, the slower player is worth more.
  25. DJL44
    It is quite difficult to be a major league GM and avoid dealing with Scott Boras.
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