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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Meyer, May, and Stewart were projected to be here when the rebuild began along with Gibson Hughes and Ervin. Then we added Berrios and Gonsalves and Romero and Jay... who'd have guessed we'd get a net negative value for starts by that group? Nevertheless, the Twins have some positional talent. If we're not contenders this year, why would we be contenders next year? Big FA signing? Yeah right. Our best chance at an ace is through trade. Why next year instead of this year? If not this year, then not next year either, so then why not trade Sano for a haul since he's literally the only player capable of bringing back premium arm talent. Trade them all and build toward kiriloff and Hunter Greene in 2021. If we stick around, play it out or add now. If Dozier and Sano got hot for a series, and Buxton gets it going... If you're good enough to luck into 88 wins, you're good enough to luck into 7 more in the playoffs.
  2. Jham
    Aha. THAT thread... I'm on it.
  3. Jham
    Htf was that a hit?
  4. Jham
    Really similar to the one that Joe 7 a few years ago...
  5. Jham
    Putting a seemingly healthy pitcher on the DL does seem like the Twins... but they'll wait until Phil gets hammered a few games. They're rightfully seeing if Hughes can make an adjustment with his repertoire to get hitters out. So far it's working more often than it isn't. It's also possible his velocity will start to return within 60 days and that pitching in games will help refine his other pitches while building arm strength. But the worst argument, in my mind, is to call up young guys to "see what we've got". Scouting is more advanced and public than ever. We should already know basically what we have before call ups. Even then, a season's worth of success doesn't really tell us anything either. Dan San, Duffy, and hopefully Berrios will show that initial success or failure in the Leagues don't really tell us all that much, or at least shouldn't be the basis of determining "what we've got."
  6. Jham
    Just looking at the SDI rankings for catchers over the last four years, I'm not sure it's a great metric for predicting future performance. There is a ton of inconsistency and variability from year to year. The SDI runs from about 7 or 8 to about negative 7 or 8. But the variation from year to year for the same catcher is frequently 7 or 8. This makes me question whether the SDI really effectively captures the defensive capability of catchers. If we try to remove the variability, it looks like Castro is a below average defensive catcher but still a significant upgrade over Zuke.
  7. Jham
    Why even look to 2nd if you're not going to throw if you got him stranded? Let's make 'em pay!!
  8. Jham
    And I'm happy he's on the team! Big double!
  9. Jham
    I may need to revise my prediction...
  10. Jham
    So does this mean we are expecting Glen back this spring? Santana seemed a given when Adrianza went down. Duffy and Mejia is ridiculous and Tonkin and Rule 5 is ridiculous. We tried this with May a couple years ago, and found that he didn't get enough work to be stretched out. If we're not committing to Duffy being a reliever he should have been optioned and stretched. If he is going to be a reliever he should have been optioned and shortened up. The fewer pitchers molitor has to manage the better. I get delaying decisions. But these guys are paid to make tough decisions.
  11. Jham
    I said that's possible. Only takes 1 GM who needs a slugger. Talent like Sano doesn't come along very often. We saw what Dozier would bring. Sano is more valuable. If Sano and Buxton go nuts, are we going to have enough pitching around them anyway? Where is the pitching going to come from?
  12. Jham
    Same reason twins gave up Garza for Delmon. Reputation, potential, and lack of 411. That's why i asked what other teams think of him. Our fan base is nervous. I bet other teams are still thinking machado or miggy. If they don't give up premium talent, you keep him and hope for the best. I think there is still a strong market for him. He's 20lb or a couple month slump leading to a .235 ba from getting the "potential bust" label across the league. At that point, it's too late. You're also right. It's possible it's too late already. But i don't have that feeling. I don't think anyone is writing him off, so I'm guessing teams aren't either. My thought is that it could be worth exploring if the league values him over his actual worth.
  13. Jham
    To me, Sano is 1 of 2 players likely to bring premium talent and a legit future ace in a trade. I would give him half a season to improve the k rate, put the team on his back, and show that he's ready to lead this team into contention. Otherwise i'd consider moving him at the deadline. The consensus here is that he's a good hitter, not great, and that k rate and defense and possibly health could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. If you had to bet one way or the other which way do you lean? Do we want to build the team's future around those question marks? How does the rest of the league view him?
  14. Jham
    I didn't think we had much choice. I'm not sure we have ant young arms good enough and certainly not deserving enough to break with. Other than maybe Mejia/Duffy who they want to stat, and Chargois maybe. If Jay is ready, I'd like to project his service time anyway.
  15. Jham
    Dozier started last season asleep. He was maybe the best player in the league after that. If he spent less time building houses this off-season, he should be able to tear it up this season. I Think he'll flirt with mvp for most of the season before hitting the wall. .277/.389/.515 39hr 110 scored 90 driven in. Hits 3rd for the all star team with a .315 avg and 24 hr at the break.
  16. Jham
    http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/28/minnesota-twins-reliever-michael-tonkin-polishing-a-new-cutter/ Tonkin apparently throwing a cutter now. He says he can't throw it for strikes. I suggested I was done with him last year. I dunno. He's relatively close to being effective. I'd keep him for a little while I guess. Or keep an eye on the waiver wire for final cuts. We should definitely keep a roster spot available for that.
  17. Jham
    Wait, aren't you always going on and on about playing young guys? If the trend is that players aren't going to improve with MLB experience, then aren't the Twins wise to make players beat the door down to break into the league? I mean, if Vargas is as good as he'll ever be, is it really vital that he plays? Or anyone who isn't really ready to be better than league average? Mauer will continue to guess more, and K more. Swing rate will be similar, walk rate too. Average will be down, power up. .247/337/404 480AB, 31 2B, 14HR.
  18. Jham
    I think it would help if the Twins had truly elite pitching prospects so that fans weren't so invested in Berrios and could see how true aces actually dominate in the minors and beat major leaguers. You'd have thought we'd have learned from Alex Meyer and Gibson experiences. Legit middle rotation starters put up ace-like numbers in AAA. It doesn't make them MLB aces. I have no doubt Berrios will be an effective major leaguer. But there is a reason that despite his quick success in the minors, he was still projected as a middle rotation piece or possibly a good to great relief pitcher.
  19. Jham
    I don't want to be Debbie does Downer, but Buxton didn't improve his K rate despite his power surge last year. The HR were nice, but lack of power was a relatively small part of the problem compared to his ability to make contact. We may want a Plan B ready to play just in case he struggles. I'm not sure Kepler's return to earth gives that much more confidence... or Rosario's for that matter. Hoping for lots and lots of maturing.
  20. Jham
    The Twins won 8 spring training games in a row, signaling that we are truly post season contenders. Let's stay positive.
  21. Jham
    Molitor likes that he's staying inside the ball and striking out 70% of the time... Either he see his half-empty/full glass is overflowing, or he's meddling with a young hitter again. Sano has always had power to all fields and the ability to use all fields. He's late on the fastball as well. Staying inside the ball will only make him later. Focus on timing and catching the ball in front where you can see the ball better and drive it, and yes, pull it. If this is a work-ethic issue, the team should have known about it. There's been grumbling for a long time. If it's the case, they need to fix it fast or trade him for pitching before his value dips.
  22. Jham
    The Kohl Stewart apologies are starting to sound more and more like the abw3 blind faith. Higher rated prospect, but eventually how he acheives is as important as that he adhesives if he's going to continue to acheive.
  23. Jham
    I'd say the scouting and projection game has changed slightly since then as well...
  24. Jham
    Yeah, I'm not saying it's not possible. I just really think that would be poor negotiation on their part if they actually wanted Dozier. If a lawyer negotiates a settlement, not showing all your cards can make sense because you can always use litigation to force or leverage opponents. In this case, there is no forcing, so not giving your best offer and saying straight up, "this is my best offer, take it or leave it," makes no sense. If it would embolden the Twins to ask for a 3rd prospect, the end result is the exact same: no Dozier. To not take your best shot at your number 1 guy because you were afraid how team C would view the offer, if they ever even heard and confirmed what that offer was, then you shouldn't get in the trade game at all. Even if the trade were strictly viewed from a prospect ranking perspective, our scouts and FO may have had different grades. I mean, the last thing we want is a DSpan - Meyer trade again, even though most of us would take that risk again even though it looks like the Nats knew exactly what they had. It did not seem that the Twins were nearly as high on De Leon as many of our posters and that they were already settling by making him the centerpiece. We've got a whole year to year and a half of prime trade time left. I doubt the return at the break or next off season will be so dramatically different that it would't fall within the highly variable margin of error for prospect projection to begin with. IMO.
  25. Jham
    This would make the Dodgers front office horribly incompetent. If Dozier was their guy, and Forsythe was always an available second option, why would they withhold their best offer? That makes zero sense. And literally, that's the definition of low-balling which would imply the Twins did right to walk away, and the Dodgers got what they deserved. There is no possible advantage to withholding your best offer regardless of whether you think it will be fruitful or not.
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