Jham

Another question is what is his peak, and when does his value peak...

On top of that. Sano has also always been precocious. He had the body at 19. He was a pro at 16. He has been groomed since what 12? This could be his worst year. He could be peaking. Save his first month in the league, he's looked like a streaky slugger with a good eye, very high ks, and a compact yet loopy swing which generates top spin instead of back spin. The swing won't ever change. He'll hit the roof of stadium he plays in, but fewer seats as result. Dozier has an outside shot at 40 hr from 2nd base. I just don't know if Sano will ever have that in him...

Not next year, the next 5. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that sano is at our close to his peak. If we get Dozier like production from Sano we'll be ecstatic right? Or we got Dozier like production from Dozier. For a little while... right now Dozier is much more useful. Next year probably. The year after probably. 3 through 5 meh. So what if Dozier can only bring back a Mike Fiers, but Sano can bring the next Arrietta. Then who do you deal?

Well I'm not convinced we're going to get 2 good years from Gibson, Duffey, May, or Mejia. I'll take Santana's next 2 seasons over any of theirs. And if I'm wrong... is that really such a bad thing? If our socks are blowed off by an offer, cool. If not, this year has proven one thing: getting younger does not necessarily mean getting better; better now, better ever. Speaking of... Important question. who has the better 2017-2021 Miguel Sano or Brian Dozier? Who will make more money over those 5 years? IE if you could only keep 1...

Yeah, but I've been on the consider trading Sano or Buxton side of thinking before, and it's so unpopular that i understand why someone would rather not go there. I think you guys hit the nail square. Trade for immediate pitching, or trade for future pitching. I've said we should consider both options and take the largest return. See where we sit then, and adjust our timeline accordingly. My sneaking suspicion is that sano brings back the most franchise changing return... if nothing we offer brings back a haul, I'm not sure what we can do. Ride out another season and cross fingers on gonsalves i guess.

Nick, I appreciate your well written article and thought you put into it. But you can see the issue with framing we have. 3.35 ERA, 1.32 WHIP are fine numbers for a young reliever. Well then what did the Twins do wrong? That's the difference between my statement and the premise of your article. We can disagree as to whether Tonkin is successful or unsuccessful (see my Sano numbers above). But there's a big jump from saying Tonkin is or isn't successful, AND the team is to blame! I offered an opinion (opinion as fact if you want to take it that way), but I didn't draw any even broader conclusion based on that opinion. Perhaps that's my issue more than opinion stated as fact. It's opinions drawn based on other arguable opinions... It just makes the arguments incredibly cumbersome and unwieldy. We can cite stats regarding whether Tonkin is good or bad, but you can't cite stats to combat an opinion of the Twins made a mistake making Tonkin pitch more than an inning.

You see, it's difficult to quote stats regarding whether there was any plan (my original post) or whether a decision is "bone-headed" (your post). So I'll state again, be as critical of the results as you want, but don't assume causation. People assume that every decision regarding the team was Terry's. They assume that the reason Tonkin has had little success was his usage. They assume May's back was injured due to relief pitching. They assume Sano's "struggles", if you want to argue he's struggled this year, have been RF related. I'm not arguing stats, which is why I haven't quoted stats. I'm arguing using those stats in order to outline an agenda. So, for example, Sano hit 11 HR in 38 games, 159 PA in right, 5 in in 30 games, 138 PA at 3rd. .864 OPS compared to .795 OPS. Those are facts via Fangraphs. I could say, hey we should move him back to right field. I could also say moving him out of the OF to 3rd messed with his hitting. I could go further and say that moving him to 3rd was a bone-head move. But alas, the stats don't tell the whole story. So I won't infer the causation. There are a multitude of arguments in both directions, and I sure to God hope our new GM isn't as quick make judgments as Leviathon, no offense. I just prefer a more cautioned approach, but I appreciate your fire and resolve. And if you think I'm relying to much on the Tonkin thing, I don't think you've read any of my posts. My beef is with the pitching in general. I think any other criticism threatens to distract from the enormous issue we have with the rotation and lesser extent bull pen. I've challenged the impact of May's relief appearance on his health, I've challenged whether Park or Plouffe changed the needle in either direction at all. So I'm not cherry picking Tonkin. I used Tonkin to point out that the article seems to be searching out additional reasons to bash the team, when what I perceive as actual problems lay right there in front of us. Last post about Tonkin. Promise.

You've somehow highlighted and missed my point at the same time. What opinion did I state as a fact, again? I believe I stated that the criticisms are fair. What I disagree with is the using opinions as fact, which then obviously leaves no room for debate, discussion or disagreement. 1 side is right, the other wrong. And this is exacerbated by emotional responses and raw nerves that come from losing 2/3 games. This is precisely when you need clear heads and not snap decisions. In my opinion, we need to fix the pitching staff asap. I guess I did state this as a fact, but no one has disagreed with that part. But really, a lot of the criticism amounts to choice of the color of paint in the guest room, when there's a hole in the roof and water in the basement. I'm questioning the productivity and focus of the article is all. Plus, NIck and others make valid points that can easily be glazed over because of the unnecessary attacks. IE counterproductive. We all want the same thing.

Is Moli on any kind of job watch?

1) Do you even really believe that? 2) For a third time, my problem with the article is the stating of IMO ridiculous or at least arguable opinions as facts. 3) You have to pitch at least 1 inning to pitch multiple innings. Tonkin has had 3+ years to prove he's anything more than Jason Kubel's brother-in-law. He hasn't succeeded in any role.

I don't know why, but I blame Grossman for this loss... Hopefully his bags are packed.

Sano really has trouble with high fastballs...

Sugardale has to be the least appetizing hot dog I've ever seen, I mean based strictly on appearance...

How late was your swing? Hilariously late, I hope.

I've always wanted to see someone try swinging after the ball kicked away, intentionally striking out, but gaining first on the wild pitch or passed ball.

Wow... nice gun, Kep!

Not to nit pick, but Sano hits the ball with too much top spin. Likely costs him 5 to 10 HR/season... Of course his upper cut swing probably lifts a few out that normally wouldn't have gone which maybe gains him 3 to 12 HR/season.... meaning his swing either costs him or benefits him to the tune of negative 3 to 13 HR/season +/- 7.5.

Furthermore, Chief, having survived the actual Oregon Trail, will be able inform us on the historical accuracies and inaccuracies of the game.

Anyone else see a little Andy Miller in youngin Stephen Gonsalves?

When you're not paying super close attention, "A little Aretha" sounds an awful lot like "A little Urethra". I was wondering where ole Jack was going with that until he started spelling.

See, you have some valid points there, but you undermine them by making some downright puzzling corollaries. Tonkin has burned through all of his option years, and has been rostered the whole year, but somehow he wasn't given a chance to succeed....

Anyone watch games on FoxSportsGo? Downloaded on Roku, saw Twins v. Indians, authenticated my cable subscription, and now local programming is not an option....

I do think one of the biggest problems the organization has is an inability to discern right and wrong decisions. Terry Ryan called this a "total system failure". The more I really look, the more I see a "total pitching staff failure". Focusing on the aspects of the team that actually need improvement gets us better faster than assuming everything's broken and worrying about the things that didn't go wrong. Plouffe, Buxton, Park, Arcia, Vargas didn't hurt the team nearly as much Gibson or Duffey. I mean, Nick is claiming the Twins somehow screwed Michael Tonkin out of his big chance. He arguably shouldn't even have made the team this year. The Twins screwed up by putting him in lower leverage situations? He was lucky to have a job! We're going to what, throw him in there for the 9th? What on earth did he do in his last 3 years of promotions and demotions to earn that? Let's focus on real problems rather than inventing things.

Ummm... cuz he's not a doctor. If you want to believe every excuse given by every ball player as to why this or that went wrong, you can. As I stated, I'm willing to try May out as a starter again. I doubt he'll be any better or healthier, but I'm willing to see. What I have an issue with is people spouting opinion like fact. You say "give the benefit of the doubt" but follow it up immediately with "all the evidence you need." Anecdotal evidence from a biased source may be all the evidence you need. I take more convincing. "He knows his own body better than anyone else" sounds good and perfectly logical, but doesn't stand up to any amount of real scrutiny, scientific or otherwise. Truth is, many many many players play through injuries they should rehab, and use injuries they play through as convenient excuses for poor performance. IE players are poor sources of information regarding their actual health and abilities. I guess Byung Ho should save the doctors some work since he seemed to believe his hand and wrist were fine.

There's a difference between questioning moves and stating opinions as fact. Nick certainly has a right to question some of the moves in light of the results. Statements like "the team did not have a plan" are inflammatory and untrue. The plan did not work, obviously. And there are a number of reasons for that, but don't say there's no plan. In reality, we don't even know whether Terry Ryan was dismissed because he wanted to go young and rebuild, or rebuffed rebuild efforts and wanted to ride things out with vets. Would the team have been any better if Plouffe had been traded, and Sano was given 3rd base to start the season? I'm less than convinced. Would the team have been better if we had moved May into the rotation and cut Ricky Nolasco? I again ask this thread to find 1 piece of evidence that throwing out of the pen is somehow more stressful and more likely to cause injury than starting. I think it's ludicrous. I think May always had limitations. I'd move him to the rotation, but can't say keeping him in the pen was a mistake, per se. Would the team be better if we never signed Park? Extremely doubtful. Power hitters are expensive. We've got him for 3 more years. He's not hurting the team, and could still be a net plus i a year or 2. Anyone suggesting Vargas is a .950 OPS guy and that they knew all along might be lying. He got sent down as he was likely regressing back to his expected level. The biggest issues regarding the team's failures are all pitching related. The team apparently did the right thing not extending Gibson. Santana looks like a legit signing. We traded Nolasco. Millone had a career worst year. May kept getting injured. Berrios is a disaster, Meyer was a disaster, Hughes was a disaster. We have an ability to improve the rotation, but we have to trade Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Gordon, or Dozier. It sucks, but that's the truth. And we've done none of those things. If all 5 of those guys are still in the organization next season, I'll consider that a pretty big failure and a lack of planning. This year was not a disaster on all fronts. It's a disaster involving pitching and defense. All the other stuff is needlessly piling on.