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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    I'd personally have AK 1 at this point. He's got the pedigree to go with the gaudy numbers. His bat plays more than Lewis's I think. That said, his Babip was really pretty high last season. He probably needs a few more walks, to turn on a few more pitches, and to turn more of those doubles into HR in order to sustain his momentum. If his value is peaking and we see him as Kepler 2.0, well we've got a lot of tough decisions coming up.
  2. Jham
    Minnesota is absolutely one of the best places up play in the summer. Cool evenings. Great park. Somewhat loyal fanbase. Fogo. LM bass and hours of additional daylight. I think it's the ownership's reputation. Same as we assume Boras will play hardball. I'm sure other agents assume the Twins will low ball.
  3. Jham
    Maybe I'm overly cautious. Or maybe I'm frustrated that we never trade any of our prospects for MLB talent. If more of our guys panned out, perhaps I'd be less cynical. But I've gone on the record that I have reservations on Lewis and Kirolff as well. They're both awesome prospects. Both will have MLB careers if not injured. Both have a shot at stardom. Seth calls AK the most advanced hitter he's ever seen at that stage. Still, it's he a top 12 outfielder in baseball? Is lewis a top 6 ss? That's how fis you have to be to get to all star level. Buxton and Sano didn't hit like MLB Trout and Cabrera in the minors, let alone MiLB versions. Lewis looks like an adequate to good MLB hitter, Kiroloff looks like a good to great MLB hitter which at their positions make them fringe all stars. Not necessarily corner stones. Maybe there's no such thing as "can't miss", but just for example, look at what Vlad Jr has done before 20: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guerre002vla and tell me Lewis or AK deserve to be in that category.
  4. Jham
    As Mike said, it's only a "bad deal" for the Twins. It's a great deal for FSN who get the same broadcast rights for cheaper. I don't buy that theory other than having secure costs. A bad TV deal would hurt the overall value of the team while not likely to benefit the network value unless they were able to maintain viewership despite fielding cheaper teams. On the other hand... I thought I read multiple owners are in on this? Right before a new CBA? What this might allow owners to do is manipulate the amount of "revenue" they kick back to players by diverting profits to the media side of things and away from the team. Although, somehow owners are still allowed to come to the table without actually disclosing their books...
  5. Jham
    Why can't we ever have a Vlad or Tatis? Wander is an ok prospect but I haven't exactly understood the national hype. He signed for big money, so scouts were on him early. They give opinions for a living and aren't likely to change their minds for no reason so it makes sense that everyone is still on him. As I recall he got off to an incredible start then cooled significantly? I was also confused about the projections so early that he'd stay at ss. I haven't heard that he's vizquel or anything. And his frame, age, and bat suggest a possible bulk up power hitter corner type future if he wants it/ grows more. Our writers are all pretty high not only of his abilities and health but of a progression and break out. I'm going to have to see it first, personally.
  6. Jham
    So if 2 seasons in a row we've failed to lock up this supposed core... and if they've underperformed for the most part... should we at least be considering other options? Like say... sign a young star FA for (gasp) more than 1 season. And maybe trade some guys you a)won't extend, or might not want to extend. Then make a run with the others taking advantage of their rookie deals while they're still Twins. Thoughts?
  7. Jham
    Good pitchers are good pitchers. Failed starters frequently make good relievers. Failed relievers NEVER make goods starters. Start him in the pen. If he dominates and you need rotation help, stretch him out. He'll have more time to develop pitches ot of the pen anyway.
  8. Jham
    How does adding a "last piece" that would require an 8 year deal make any sense? Now is certainly the time to add a super star. If your window is opening, then why waste half of it waiting to peak? Fling those shudders open and worry about keeping it open down the line. This team's about to get expensive anyway. For years we looked to 2019. No Mauer. No Hughes. No Santana. No Nolasco. Sano, Buck, Rosie, Kep, JO, Polanco, Romero... Come on! Make a move at the deadline? You mean over pay for 2 months of a player? Get guys for a full year and play it out from day 1. Who wants to miss the playoffs by 2 games after taking away prospects when investing in February may have made up those games without losing the future? If you won't get Harper get Kimbrel. This is how we [perpetually rebuild].
  9. Jham
    That's not how price fixing works.
  10. Jham
    awesome
  11. Jham
    I need to read more carefully? You didn't even address my post. Just said it was wrong. This is not your normal business where if your margins aren't high enough people lose their jobs and families and investors suffer. The mission of an MLB club in some fashion, is to win games. Bottom line just isn't the concern it is in other industries because they're part of a monopoly where every business is almost automatically profitable. As for market disparity, there are revenue sharing agreements and especially escalating luxury tax penalties that seem to be helping to curb that. Now we need a floor. One thing I agreed with Steinbrenner on was the unfairness of having to pay into a sharing system without requiring the Twins and Pirates to reinvest into the product. You can disagree and keep suggesting they operate like Delta or Best Buy, but there's no need for condescension. We're arguing about how one of the richest families in the world should spend its "going out" money.
  12. Jham
    I agree as well. They're in one of the world's great investments. incredibly profitable. Exclusive, almost monopoly exclusive. Popular, fun, and generating both income and growth. That said, what is their primary objective?
  13. Jham
    I agree as well. They're in one of the world's great investments. incredibly profitable. Exclusive, almost monopoly exclusive. Popular, fun, and generating both income and growth.
  14. Jham
    But it is just money. Savings aren't carried over. The team isn't in financial trouble. You talk about the team like it's a normal business which it isn't. It's closer to a non-profit. If you've ever served on a church or charity board you'd understand that the mission guides what you are doing. If you can't fiscally follow your mission, then your organization has no purpose and you dissolve. The Twins have ever stated that their mission is sustainable success, not necessarily championships. But it seems that their real mission is to make money. If that's the case, they aren't good for the sport and they should pick a new business.
  15. Jham
    Well that's the way it has worked. The league is changing. Maybe after the next CBA it will change again. This isn't that different than the Hicks scenario. We just need a better result. The young controllable and effective player has always mattered to small and mid market teams, but it's even more valuable for teams that plan on exceeding the luxury tax and need to dip down for a year. I'm seeing the same thing happening again. Graterol an "ace". Lewis and Kiroloff are future MVPs. They're all nice prospects. But I don't think Lewis is a Correa or Machado type or that Ak is a Bryce Harper. I'm not saying they should be traded. I'm saying no one is off limits. We need to do a better job of evaluating our own talent. And if we're still committed to the Buck and Sano window, then invest in this team now. Waiting does nothing. We're walking toward a cliff where if they're good they walk and if they're not good we lose trade value by the minute.
  16. Jham
    So why did we play them into almost no value? Those that suggested that they be traded previously while offering more promise and more cost control were chastised and told that position prospects are too valuable to trade. Well guess what, even if they're all good we won't be able to resign them all. So why not trade at peak value and trust your own scouts and reads? Just like under Ryan. Vastly overrating our own prospects. Also the are significant counterpoints of skepticism as to whether Kepler's "breakout" is sustainable. Swing path, trajectory, and shifting for example.
  17. Jham
    I don't get the lack of k's with his velocity and breaking ball. control must be pretty inconsistent. His velo and curve are major league level. but control is part of "stuff". a big part.
  18. Jham
    They should show his no look pick off too.
  19. Jham
    That's precisely what I was saying. We're arguing the same thing. I think many are learning on WAR without considering the fact that it's an estimate of intangible "value". It's most accurate when comparing players of the same position. Posters are using it as proof rather than reference. My only point on Palka was that he was a rookie. I didn't make a point on Buxton at all. Some are saying he can still help the team by being a glove only CF based on WAR. when the correct phrase is "he can still post a positive WAR in cf". similar but different. Literally my only intention was to show where I thought the posters' disagreements might be originating; ie overvalue of cf defense.
  20. Jham
    Not what I said, Mike. just the position adjustment seems arbitrary compared to the other factors they're using in calculation. Like you said. It isn't perfect. I simply pointed out 1 way it's not. Doesn't mean we shouldn't use it at all.
  21. Jham
    I'm not disagreeing with the premise of position adjustment. Merely the execution. You're basically saying you can say who is a more valuable fielder between 2 different players by looking at their uzr then adding the adjustment. I don't think it's that simple. I think the adjustment seems arbitrary. There's enough players like Kep that play multiple spots, it shouldn't be impossible to check. But every team has to field every spot including DH. If you could field 9 Byron Buxtons, they'd all have different WARS with CF Buxton indeed getting an award for showing up. Again, I'm not referring to any specific player. I'm certainly not saying use WAR without the position adjustment. My point as was Ewen's is that WAR itself has some gaps and flaws. CF defense seems to be 1.
  22. Jham
    Ok. fWAR uses uzr (also positional). I get that. I'm just saying that I've seen no explanation as to how they came up with the positional adjustment that doesn't look arbitrary. I don't see how being bad at your position can be better than being good at another position (other than flexibilty, Riverb). Ball hawks, are also rewarded as I stated. Most outhogs are cf. I'm not suggesting that Palka is better than Hicks. But he hit 27 HR as a rookie. I just don't think WAR is a perfect stat for comparing them.
  23. Jham
    But defense is also factored in. So you're factoring it twice. Putting Palka in center wouldn't make him more valuable. He'd be a liability there. That's not more value. It's less. The defensive metric would bear that out. Does Kepler really need a different WAR calculation when he plays CF than RF?
  24. Jham
    Hicks v Palka... Buxton v blackhole all based off the ubiquitous "bwar". Look how it's calculated and you can pretty easily determine where the most likely discrepancy arises. "position adjustment". CF are given a 2.5 runs bump just for showing up. Corners are docked 7.5 runs. (Explains Kepler's elevated war as well). Where's the basis for the adjustment? Not actual defense, since that is calculated separately. If Buck and Kepler traded spots, would Kepler be the more valuable defensive player? No. If Rosie moved to CF instead of Kep last year, what would their WAR have been? The idea that it's harder to put up runs saved in CF than the corners isn't well founded IMO. and neither is the position adjustment. This is compounded by the fact that good cf are ball hawks who run down many balls that the corners might be in perfect position to catch. Thus it is harder for Rosie to increase his radius while Buxtons catch radius looks huge. The actual amount of runs saved is skewed for both. As is their WAR.
  25. Jham
    Hilde's change up is almost unhittable when he's on. Very few pitchers have a pitch like that. I'd give up on the adding new pitches and deliveries, and work on placement and rest. His MiLB record and MLB success suggests closer upside. We screwed up Duffey having him develop another pitch. How about throw your good pitches more often, to start.
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