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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Here's the Angel's forum's reaction: http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade Interesting takeaways: 1) Halos fans think they won, or at least tied in this trade. 2) Angels fans are more frustrated than Twins fans somehow. 3) They hate Santiago, his walks, and his pitch count. 4) They love Meyer's upside, 1 poster even suggesting that Antony got fleeced and taken advantage of. 5) The Angels have one of the worst ranked farm systems in the game, Busentiz was unranked, and despite their lack of prospect talent, Meyer ranks only 12 in their system. They make a good point about our salary dump. If we arbitrate with Santiago and pay him $8-$10 mil next year, along with $4mil of Nolasco, we didn't really shed any salary at all. They speculate that our intention is to non-tender Santiago after the season. Basically both sides got rid of frustrating players and are snickering waiting for the other to realize their mistake. Sort of funny actually. From a homer standpoint, I think they don't know how well they had it with Hector.
  2. Jham
    Per the fangraphs xFIP explanation page: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/ Most often a pitcher's ability to outperform xFIP exists because they can limit HR. Particularly HR/FB%. Additionally, some pitchers tend to give up solo blasts while cruising with a 3-5 run lead (common for aces) which obviously hurt less than 3 run blasts. Those pitchers would be expected to have low walks. To me, this explained a lot of Trevor May's under-performance last year. He limited walks and HR to a degree he never had before, but still gave up big innings and 3 run HR at a larger than expected rate for his walk and HR totals. Nolasco seems to fall into the big inning trap as well. Anecdotaly, he is pitching somewhat deep into games but is giving up a lot of runs. He may be sacrificing hits for walks which will look darn nice in FIP or xFIP terms, but as the few remaining BA fans out there will tell you, a single produces a much better outcome than a walk. Without reviewing the stats, my hypothesis is that Santiago is really good at limiting HR or giving up solo HR, a skill that Fangraphs acknowledge exists that throws off xFIP. It also appears Santiago walks a lot of guys. But the walks must hurt him at a less than expected rate which could mean he doesn't give in to guys, has a knack of following up with a K, or has above average ability to convert 1 base walks into double plays. Now I need a team of interns to check the stats.
  3. Jham
    The moves aren't supposed to make us competitors next season. Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Berrios are.
  4. Jham
    Except in reverse... Maybe the Twins analytics team is using a projection other teams don't have, or maybe the Angels fell into the same trap the Twins did waiting for Nolasco to "rebound" to his FIP numbers... My favorite part of analytics is figuring out what variables lead some players to break the mold, so to speak. In a modern game where everyone is looking at stats, correctly assessing the outliers is the only way to stay ahead. One question I have regarding FIP and xFIP is how much steadier they are than ERA as a stat from year to year and even throughout the year. Like it's pretty much agreed that it's a better stat than ERA in most cases, but HOW much better?
  5. Jham
    Milone is relatively cheap, modestly effective, and requires almost no commitment. He's the perfect pitcher for a rebuilding team waiting for someone to replace him. It's not his fault we have 4 other replaceable starters being paid more and for longer.
  6. Jham
    How Buster Olney analyzes the Nolasco deal: "At its heart, Twins' deal with Angels is essentially Meyer for Busenitz, with Angels getting an additional year w/ Nolasco vs. Santiago." We also pay $4 mil to Angels next year. Busenitz is more than a throw in.
  7. Jham
    Just in time to block the Twins rebuild from ever making it out of the Wild Card round... (again)
  8. Jham
    Well I've always thought stadiums should start playing "For the Longest Time" every time Pelfrey started rubbing the seams off a new baseball, walking around the mound, or shaking off the catcher.
  9. Jham
    I thought someone shot him with his own gun outside a New Orleans restaurant or something... Not a bad return for a deceased defensive end with average pass rush abilities and a penchant for political corruption.
  10. Jham
    Oh ho ho, this is your lucky day. Thanks to the magic of Twitter, we know he's for it! Only the good die young!
  11. Jham
    @Pat.Light - "The sinners are much more fun"
  12. Jham
    I just went on his Twitter. No mention of Santana. (Smoke dissipating)
  13. Jham
    I'm not sure it was really their intention to trot those guys out. No one really distinguished themselves enough to replace them. Milone was already waived. Nolasco beat out Duffey fair and square during Spring Training and again this season (battle of futility). I'm sure we'd trade Nolasco for about anything would there be any takers, and that's without a ready replacement. I'd probably hold on to Milone, just in case we need an extra starter next season.
  14. Jham
    Lou Brown: [to Temple] "We better teach this kid some control before he kills somebody."
  15. Jham
    Apparently Bruce to the Mets and Puig possibly to White Sox according to Olney.
  16. Jham
    Aside from the guys discussed, I'd consider shopping Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Alex Meyer. They've got the pedigree based on their draft positions, teams might not be able to fully investigate their struggles with a short deadline, and they've seem to have been passed in the organization by Melotakis, Hildenberger, Chargois and maybe even Rogers. 2 of the 3 have had injuries. Their best value to the organization may be as trade sweeteners at this point.
  17. Jham
    Hey, it's happening. Vargas in, Sano at 3rd. Mauer sitting out. Maybe he's being dealt to a world series contender playing in a dream world. https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/759120674166300673
  18. Jham
    Adalberto Mejia’s Mahalanobis Comps Fangraph's Chris Mitchell's top 10 comps and projections... Rank Name Mah Dist Projected KATOH+ WAR Actual WAR 1 Victor Santos 0.28 2.3 3.8 2 John Thomson 0.36 2.4 13.7 3 Zack Greinke 0.49 2.3 32.0 4 Jeff Karstens 0.66 2.0 3.4 5 John Johnstone 0.76 2.1 1.3 6 Ricky Nolasco 0.82 3.4 16.6 7 Jeff Housman 0.90 2.0 0.0 8 Peter Munro 0.97 3.5 3.3 9 Pat Misch 0.99 2.1 1.0 10 Wil Ledezma 1.02 2.9 Let's hope for Zack Greinke! But of course, the 2nd MOST successful comp based on his MiLB results is Ricky Nolasco... Expletive.
  19. Jham
    Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be mad if Sano is given a chance to stick at 3rd, so long as Mauer is not inked at first until his contract expires. I actually like Vargas' defense. Park's got 8 HR in 10 games in AAA. Given the state of our roster and positions of strength or at least depth, I don't see how Mauer can be relied upon, and I don't see how we can keep all of the K prone power at 1B/DH. I think the transitioning of Mauer to reserve or at least less than full-time player is easier if we make him a full time DH. To respond to the discussion of Mauer v. Sano on defense, you haven't seen how Sano would play with a large mit. I mean, I'm trying to think of a single player who was a capable 3rd baseman, but couldn't pick it at first. Regarding picking up short hops, third basemen almost never have the time to choose to take the ball on the rise or fall. So I have no doubt he could pick short hops. Basically, if Sano can't even play 1B, he shouldn't be on the field at all. I think we can forget about Mauer to 3rd, which is why I suggest he DH's, BUT, Mauer was a pitcher in HS, a 4 star QB, and had a rocket behind the plate. His arm rivals Sano's.
  20. Jham
    Assume 3rd > 1st > DH. As of right now, Sano = 3rd, Mauer = 1st. Therefore Sano > Mauer. Proof. Now assume Sano # 3rd. We've already proven Sano > Mauer. Then the only option left is Sano = 1st and Mauer = DH. Proof. I can't be more logical. Otherwise we have to change our initial premise, that 3rd base is more difficult and important than first. Or if it's as you state, Mauer > Sano, then Sano should DH (not ideal for a player his age and skill), or Mauer should play 3rd (not ideal for his age/ hitting ability). I actually think it would be worth seeing if a switch to DH would help extend and boost Joe's productivity. This season is about the future. I don't believe Sano had future at third. I don't believe Mauer has a future at first. In the next 2 years we should see Sano at first and Mauer DHing or phased out.
  21. Jham
    So, this is what I don't get. If Mauer's a better fielder than Sano... Why would Sano play 3rd and Mauer 1st? Wouldn't it be the other way around? Isn't Mauer's arm every bit as good as Sano's? If Mauer keeps hitting the way he is, he isn't much good to us as a 1st baseman or DH. To me, the only way Mauer can give us some value is by switching to 3rd to take advantage of his supposedly better-than-Sano defense or DH and hope that he hits better as a designated hitter. If Sano can play 3rd, he can play 1st. In a season that has become about the future of the organization, keeping Mauer at 1st where he has virtually no future in my mind, seems silly. The transition to DH to part-time DH will be a lot smoother now than in a playoff run.
  22. Jham
    In a discussion of the future Twins in-field, no mention of Joe Mauer. Mauer simply can't hit enough to stick there. He probably can't hit enough to stick at DH either, but I'm willing to see if that helps. Polanco should play 3rd until Plouffe returns or Dozier is traded. Sano is very likely to be a 1st baseman in the next few seasons, and could possibly be a good one. He should play first. Mauer is showing age, can't concentrate for a whole season, but can be dangerous when rested. He's a natural DH at this point, at most. You simply can't build much defensive value at 1st. Escobar has been fairly productive despite sporadic playing time. He deserves to play the last couple months. We might have to extend Plouffe also... ish.
  23. Jham
    Here's him turning on 92 mph fastball inside and pulling it down the line... http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=959460383&topic_id=26478508&c_id=t534&sid=t534 This appears to be a fast ball away that went over the batters eye in center. http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=982080883&topic_id=26478508&c_id=t534&sid=t534
  24. Jham
    Lookouts are 54-49, not 54-59, 5 games to the good of .500.
  25. Jham
    Personally, i feel a winning culture is really important to player development. Young players tend to have fragile confidence and take losses too hard/ blame themselves for losses. If you take losses too hard, and lose alot, eventually your head tells you to stop caring so you aren't mad all the time. Losing also brings out the worst in personalities and often causes conflict in the club house. Kids also eventually learn that they get paid win or lose, so why get frustrated over mounting losses. I think Hunter tipped to that when he returned to a changed twins culture. Other than prospect scouting and development, i think our biggest problem is the perpetuation of a culture that emphasizes that players are paid to play, not paid to win.
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