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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Except in reverse... Maybe the Twins analytics team is using a projection other teams don't have, or maybe the Angels fell into the same trap the Twins did waiting for Nolasco to "rebound" to his FIP numbers... My favorite part of analytics is figuring out what variables lead some players to break the mold, so to speak. In a modern game where everyone is looking at stats, correctly assessing the outliers is the only way to stay ahead. One question I have regarding FIP and xFIP is how much steadier they are than ERA as a stat from year to year and even throughout the year. Like it's pretty much agreed that it's a better stat than ERA in most cases, but HOW much better?
  2. Jham
    Milone is relatively cheap, modestly effective, and requires almost no commitment. He's the perfect pitcher for a rebuilding team waiting for someone to replace him. It's not his fault we have 4 other replaceable starters being paid more and for longer.
  3. Jham
    How Buster Olney analyzes the Nolasco deal: "At its heart, Twins' deal with Angels is essentially Meyer for Busenitz, with Angels getting an additional year w/ Nolasco vs. Santiago." We also pay $4 mil to Angels next year. Busenitz is more than a throw in.
  4. Jham
    Just in time to block the Twins rebuild from ever making it out of the Wild Card round... (again)
  5. Jham
    Well I've always thought stadiums should start playing "For the Longest Time" every time Pelfrey started rubbing the seams off a new baseball, walking around the mound, or shaking off the catcher.
  6. Jham
    I thought someone shot him with his own gun outside a New Orleans restaurant or something... Not a bad return for a deceased defensive end with average pass rush abilities and a penchant for political corruption.
  7. Jham
    Oh ho ho, this is your lucky day. Thanks to the magic of Twitter, we know he's for it! Only the good die young!
  8. Jham
    @Pat.Light - "The sinners are much more fun"
  9. Jham
    I just went on his Twitter. No mention of Santana. (Smoke dissipating)
  10. Jham
    I'm not sure it was really their intention to trot those guys out. No one really distinguished themselves enough to replace them. Milone was already waived. Nolasco beat out Duffey fair and square during Spring Training and again this season (battle of futility). I'm sure we'd trade Nolasco for about anything would there be any takers, and that's without a ready replacement. I'd probably hold on to Milone, just in case we need an extra starter next season.
  11. Jham
    Lou Brown: [to Temple] "We better teach this kid some control before he kills somebody."
  12. Jham
    Apparently Bruce to the Mets and Puig possibly to White Sox according to Olney.
  13. Jham
    Aside from the guys discussed, I'd consider shopping Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Alex Meyer. They've got the pedigree based on their draft positions, teams might not be able to fully investigate their struggles with a short deadline, and they've seem to have been passed in the organization by Melotakis, Hildenberger, Chargois and maybe even Rogers. 2 of the 3 have had injuries. Their best value to the organization may be as trade sweeteners at this point.
  14. Jham
    Hey, it's happening. Vargas in, Sano at 3rd. Mauer sitting out. Maybe he's being dealt to a world series contender playing in a dream world. https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/759120674166300673
  15. Jham
    Adalberto Mejia’s Mahalanobis Comps Fangraph's Chris Mitchell's top 10 comps and projections... Rank Name Mah Dist Projected KATOH+ WAR Actual WAR 1 Victor Santos 0.28 2.3 3.8 2 John Thomson 0.36 2.4 13.7 3 Zack Greinke 0.49 2.3 32.0 4 Jeff Karstens 0.66 2.0 3.4 5 John Johnstone 0.76 2.1 1.3 6 Ricky Nolasco 0.82 3.4 16.6 7 Jeff Housman 0.90 2.0 0.0 8 Peter Munro 0.97 3.5 3.3 9 Pat Misch 0.99 2.1 1.0 10 Wil Ledezma 1.02 2.9 Let's hope for Zack Greinke! But of course, the 2nd MOST successful comp based on his MiLB results is Ricky Nolasco... Expletive.
  16. Jham
    Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be mad if Sano is given a chance to stick at 3rd, so long as Mauer is not inked at first until his contract expires. I actually like Vargas' defense. Park's got 8 HR in 10 games in AAA. Given the state of our roster and positions of strength or at least depth, I don't see how Mauer can be relied upon, and I don't see how we can keep all of the K prone power at 1B/DH. I think the transitioning of Mauer to reserve or at least less than full-time player is easier if we make him a full time DH. To respond to the discussion of Mauer v. Sano on defense, you haven't seen how Sano would play with a large mit. I mean, I'm trying to think of a single player who was a capable 3rd baseman, but couldn't pick it at first. Regarding picking up short hops, third basemen almost never have the time to choose to take the ball on the rise or fall. So I have no doubt he could pick short hops. Basically, if Sano can't even play 1B, he shouldn't be on the field at all. I think we can forget about Mauer to 3rd, which is why I suggest he DH's, BUT, Mauer was a pitcher in HS, a 4 star QB, and had a rocket behind the plate. His arm rivals Sano's.
  17. Jham
    Assume 3rd > 1st > DH. As of right now, Sano = 3rd, Mauer = 1st. Therefore Sano > Mauer. Proof. Now assume Sano # 3rd. We've already proven Sano > Mauer. Then the only option left is Sano = 1st and Mauer = DH. Proof. I can't be more logical. Otherwise we have to change our initial premise, that 3rd base is more difficult and important than first. Or if it's as you state, Mauer > Sano, then Sano should DH (not ideal for a player his age and skill), or Mauer should play 3rd (not ideal for his age/ hitting ability). I actually think it would be worth seeing if a switch to DH would help extend and boost Joe's productivity. This season is about the future. I don't believe Sano had future at third. I don't believe Mauer has a future at first. In the next 2 years we should see Sano at first and Mauer DHing or phased out.
  18. Jham
    So, this is what I don't get. If Mauer's a better fielder than Sano... Why would Sano play 3rd and Mauer 1st? Wouldn't it be the other way around? Isn't Mauer's arm every bit as good as Sano's? If Mauer keeps hitting the way he is, he isn't much good to us as a 1st baseman or DH. To me, the only way Mauer can give us some value is by switching to 3rd to take advantage of his supposedly better-than-Sano defense or DH and hope that he hits better as a designated hitter. If Sano can play 3rd, he can play 1st. In a season that has become about the future of the organization, keeping Mauer at 1st where he has virtually no future in my mind, seems silly. The transition to DH to part-time DH will be a lot smoother now than in a playoff run.
  19. Jham
    In a discussion of the future Twins in-field, no mention of Joe Mauer. Mauer simply can't hit enough to stick there. He probably can't hit enough to stick at DH either, but I'm willing to see if that helps. Polanco should play 3rd until Plouffe returns or Dozier is traded. Sano is very likely to be a 1st baseman in the next few seasons, and could possibly be a good one. He should play first. Mauer is showing age, can't concentrate for a whole season, but can be dangerous when rested. He's a natural DH at this point, at most. You simply can't build much defensive value at 1st. Escobar has been fairly productive despite sporadic playing time. He deserves to play the last couple months. We might have to extend Plouffe also... ish.
  20. Jham
    Here's him turning on 92 mph fastball inside and pulling it down the line... http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=959460383&topic_id=26478508&c_id=t534&sid=t534 This appears to be a fast ball away that went over the batters eye in center. http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=982080883&topic_id=26478508&c_id=t534&sid=t534
  21. Jham
    Lookouts are 54-49, not 54-59, 5 games to the good of .500.
  22. Jham
    Personally, i feel a winning culture is really important to player development. Young players tend to have fragile confidence and take losses too hard/ blame themselves for losses. If you take losses too hard, and lose alot, eventually your head tells you to stop caring so you aren't mad all the time. Losing also brings out the worst in personalities and often causes conflict in the club house. Kids also eventually learn that they get paid win or lose, so why get frustrated over mounting losses. I think Hunter tipped to that when he returned to a changed twins culture. Other than prospect scouting and development, i think our biggest problem is the perpetuation of a culture that emphasizes that players are paid to play, not paid to win.
  23. Jham
    That being said, 1st base would be the single easiest and cheapest spot to upgrade on the entire roster. The league has many guys who can hit, but can't field, but can pick a little 1st base. You can get those guys cheap and possibly even just fill from within for pennies. There are many ways to construct a roster. You can have a high OBP guy at first and have a slugger at short. Again, slugging first basemen are cheap slugging short stops or catchers are like Mauer expensive. Regardless of the contract, the team improves if we put a slugger at first since we don't have to find a slugger to play up the middle (hard to find, super expensive vs. easy to find and relatively cheap) in order to balance the line up. Basically, the argument should not be whether or not Mauer has value. It should be whether or not we can improve at that position. That should be the review for everyone on the team.
  24. Jham
    Ok, baseball players play for a living, like that's their job. I don't think a single owner in sports owns their team as their primary stream of income. Few players are set up for lucrative careers once they retire. Most owners are independently wealthy. Put it this way, if you have enough money to own a team, you can live super easily off draws from your investments without your investments even losing money. In fact, you will pay 14% capital gains on the stocks that increased in value. Compare that to the 40% players will pay in income tax. So yeah there's a pretty big difference from that standpoint.
  25. Jham
    I'd consider trading for a haul including a potential ace and prospects closer to the Majors. If we have no potential aces other than slim possibility of Jay, and we're not realistically signing one, I don't know how we acquire one without having to give up an arm and a leg later.
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