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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    I'm pleasantly surprised as to Kohl Stewart's stuff. I can see how he's out performed his peripherals at each level. But seriously. He's a relief pitcher. Concentrating for an inning is much easier than 6 or 7. Probably needs to use the 4 seamer up high more, like May and Gibby, to stay on schedule
  2. Jham
    Ostensibly, the position flexibility angle makes it easier to upgrade from Ryan LaMarre. Potentially you don't need a LaMarre OR a weak hitting utility infielder. Get the best bench bat you can regardless of position. Rosario then is your utility infielder. Roster spot saved. Money saved. Bench improved. Sunday matinee lineups worth watching. It's a bit of a catch 22. You need good enough players to make reworking lineups worth it, but position flexibility makes it easier to roster more good players. For instance, Ohtani has 1.2 bWAR in only 9 starts as a pitcher. He has 1.4 bWAR in only 234 PA. Impressive enough without extrapolation for health. BUT you also have to add in the value of the roster spot you're saving by having half of your DH duties covered. It's like constantly having a 26th spot for a fresh reliever, a defense only sub, a 3rd catcher for some reason if you're Gardy...
  3. Jham
    Of course, you can't be optioned off the disabled list. This is Byron Buxton we're talking about after all...
  4. Jham
    In fairness, most of the guys we got in return for those traded away are being termed "lottery tickets". I have to think that our chances of making the playoffs, even now for that matter, surpass our odds of winning the lottery. There's something to be said for not embracing a losing culture. Giving up every time the odds aren't in your favor doesn't really build character or winners, imo. Now if the guys we got move the needle, then it makes some sense. But to give up on multiple seasons for aaa filler and future rule 5 offers, not so much. There are odds of wining, and there are pot odds. The 2 are not the same. A horse going off as a 1/9 favorite is going to be the most likely winner of a horse race, but a live long shot would still be a better bet because of value. Less abstractly, if you bet $500 on the Twins to make the playoffs at 10-1 odds earlier in the year and I offered to buy the ticket off you at the trade deadline, you'd want an offer high enough that it actually makes a difference to you. If I offer 2 $1 scratch offs and a power ball, you hold out because for that offer, you may as well hope for the miracle.
  5. Jham
    We've also debuted guys in the past to get them an mlb paycheck as a reward for loyalty before cutting them haven't we? I'd have to think this is a possibility as well. Maybe we convinced him to not play football this year or something and feel like we owe him something.
  6. Jham
    He'd have to bring back significantly more than Chris Archer, right? Especially with the escalating luxury tax penalties? A bidding war between big spenders could escalate pretty rapidly I'd think.
  7. Jham
    Oh don't get me wrong. I'm excited to actually see him pitch after all these years. I just don't see how we could possibly make a 40 man decision based off what happens in the next 6 weeks in a role I seriously doubt he'll stick in.
  8. Jham
    But don't we have a pretty good idea of Stewart as a starter? And doesn't that make him completely expendable which is why he wasn't protected last off-season? If he's a 5th or 6th starter, what use is he to this team? If we agree that his most likely role on this team is a shuttle-reliever with options, then shouldn't we have committed to that? I'd rather see him in that role. It's similar to river Brian's position flexibility argument. Why not get him experience in a role where he might actually be of some use?
  9. Jham
    I don't get this exactly. Personally, I would have been converting Stewart to the bullpen a year ago. The chances that this is the beginning of a nice mlb career as a starter seems remote to me. Will we really feel ant better about his chances if he had some initial success? When he struggles and labors to get outs, particularly strike outs will we really know anything we didn't already know? Maybe he'll develope etc.. then why is he coming up now?
  10. Jham
    Anyone we could deal to generate a return like that? Buxton or Sano? Berrios? Rosario?
  11. Jham
    Probably should have included a link to Parker's article and thread where all of this is hashed out. It's a good point and counter point. All lift is not created equal. 100 mph two hoppers are outs as often as hits.
  12. Jham
    The Johan trade tree is almost too painful to chart out. it flamed out with Jim Hoey, I believe... But the original trade produced Gogo if only we'd a) been more patient or been better at developing players, depending on which half of total system failure you want to assign more blame to.
  13. Jham
    It would be interesting to add up all the WAR from that trade. I'm guessing it's pretty good. AJ didn't flame out like Delmon and did produce a ring for Chicago.
  14. Jham
    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24301269/delmon-young-trade-tree-how-flip-bust-15-years-talent Dear goodness, why are Minnesota sports always on the wrong side of these? For all the posters who say you can't trade controllable position player talent... this an alternative future for the Buxton and Sano era...
  15. Jham
    So this seems to support not clutch... hitting with risp, 2 outs, bases loaded could all happen whenever. Up 10, down 10 first inning, 12th inning... Of course late and close often includes careful pitching, lefty specialists, and top relievers. It would be nice with all the data we have if we could analyze expected outcomes against the particular pitcher and see how often a player exceeds those expectations. That said, the late and close numbers seem significantly lower than expected even against great competition, batting in mind that pitchers can get nervous in big spots as well.
  16. Jham
    "Hi, my name is Thad and I'm a Belisle-aholic." "Hi Thad!" "I was Belisle free for seven months before relapsing. I'm currently starting on the Belisle patch. I'll let you know in 10 days if it works."
  17. Jham
    I think this is more of an execution over strategy argument. You can argue that the strategy is sound, but the execution is puzzling to some degree. Twins could have offered Belisle if they really liked him after last season and no one would have batted an eye as long as we weren't planning to have him close again. But they didn't even try to sign him, then picked him up after he was the worst pitcher on the worst bullpen staff in baseball. Randy Rosario was good enough to get a call last summer, but not good enough to keep this winter. Shaggy and Burdi were let go to roster a Rule 5 flop and a host of guys who won't get a look even in a lost season. No idea what's going on with Duffey... Maybe they were all seen as organizational filler that is equally expendable and drew names from a hat. But that's not how it has played out on the field. Personally, I'd have liked to see the guys with options make the 40 man and funnel in and out weekly, essentially giving us a 9 or 10+ man pen. On the other hand, if we should have rostered Shaggy and Burdi and Rosario, should we have DFA'd Duffy, Curtis, and Boozy or Moya? Even Hughes got a return. When you draft a lot of failed starters and college relievers, you're likely to end up with a bunch fringe MLB relievers.
  18. Jham
    There's times I'm not sure what my point is... I think what I was trying to convey is that chemistry does make workers including players more focused and productive. And that science and numbers support that idea. Even though it's impossible to measure on an individual basis.
  19. Jham
    And here, the downside of the analytics movement: "the we don't have a stat to measure it, so it either doesn't exist or doesn't matter" argument. If only someone had studied workplace productivity in comparison to job satisfaction, compiled the data, and published the result. Oh wait, that has been done. Hundreds of times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/opinion/sunday/do-happier-people-work-harder.html Just because a stat isn't a baseball card stat doesn't make it not analytics. Every major Corp spends huge dollars on team building, workplace consultants, and hr because chemistry does matter. Baseball still has people playing it, not zips projections or algorithms.
  20. Jham
    I'd add that once resentment starts to set in, it begins to erode at the structure of any relationship. It spirals because the natural reaction is to get defensive when confronted by warranted and unwarranted criticism. Buck, Kep, Berrios, and Rosario were approached with k extensions prior to the year. But not Sano? The FO wouldn't pick up the phone for Doz. Those guys all turned down offers, and still no money for Doz. No offer for Esco. No offer Sano. More FA pick ups, and no money. The problem is every side has some reason to be upset. When both sides are "right", you can get some pretty explosive confrontations.
  21. Jham
    So we got a worse version of Daniel Paulka to drag around for a couple years before not protecting him, and proved to the league that we can be pushed around in trade talks. Gross.
  22. Jham
    The trade market for Dozier is probably a pretty decent indicator of what his free agent value will be: disappointing. Compare to Logan Morrison with a pedestrian track record coming off a great season to Dozier with a great track record coming off a pedestrian season. He may sign a cheap free agent deal or a one year prove it. The Yankees, with Judge's wrist being an uncertainty, would seem a perfect spot for a cheap rh DH with pull power and a short porch. The twins also have shown the willingness to eat contacts for the Yankees. That he wasn't included in the Lynn deal maybe says a lot.
  23. Jham
    I think what he's saying is that if Plouffe and Dozier were bad enough SS that they would submarine a season playing there, then why were they played almost exclusively there in the minors? Then if they could so easily transition to 3rd and 2nd, why not left or right? Why waste their entire Minor league experiences at positions they're not good at rather than embracing that truth earlier on and finding multiple positions they might not suck as badly at. Basically, unless you're an elite defender, you should be a utility player because you're not that good anyway.
  24. Jham
    Twins don't really ever talk contracts mid season. And players rarely sign extensions 2 months from free agency. An extension happens this of season or never. He's a number 1 pick with serious success in the minors who struggles as a sinker pitcher in the launch angle revolution but reinvented himself as a strike out guy. He's got 2 pitches that are among baseballs most swung and missed. Hint: neither are the 2 seamer he once relied on. It is doubtful he'll be viewed as 1 of baseball's best starters in terms of return. I'd extend this off-season if it can be reasonably done. It's hard for me to imagine wining a playoff series in the next couple years without "good Gibby" playing a role.
  25. Jham

    SELL!

    Jham replied to mudcat14's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Good and depressing point...
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