Jham

Of course, the market always swings like a pendulum. Traditional money ball only works if you're the only using out. The thought of exploiting market inefficiencies still remains viable, however. If the pendulum swings too far toward stars and prospects, then the ability to build a good team through signing really good players becomes easier and the demand for bell curve players will go back up. But the current landscape suggests that the inefficiency is on the fringes by design, intentionally or unintentionally. Prospects are absurdly valuable because rookie deals are so team friendly. Twins fans witnessed this last August when we shipped Jaime Garcia plus $4.5 million (3/4 of a Morrison) to the team that knocked us out of the playoffs for a B prospect. The market for supper stats creates competition which should help efficiency except that only a few teams really participate. But the biggest factors are luxury tax and roster size. Every team is limited to 25 major leaguers. Every team must have a payroll under $200 mil or be penalized. Teams consistently above the threshold benefit from longer contracts which spreads the amount of tax over a larger window vs teams who would either receive no discount or perhaps even be forced to pay in. If i were a gm, I'd save cash and horde prospects. Then break the bank for 1 or 2 stars. I'd front load the contracts and pay the luxury tax thought away. (First time offenders get a low rate. Get back under, and the escalators reset). I'd also have all relievers waive their right to refuse assignment. Thusly we'd be able to effectively roster a couple additional arms. Thus we take advantage of the market inefficiency. Anyway, twins have never been above the threshold. So they get could have perhaps a 10% to 40% or more saving on a Bryce Harper in comparison with a team that's been consistently over. https://www.forbes.com/sites/leighsteinberg/2018/02/19/the-mysterious-case-of-mlb-icing-out-its-free-agents/

League seems to be following a bell curve. A steep one. The dark side of metrics. Players that move the needle are rare. Elite players are truly rare. Pay like heck for super stars, pay almost nothing for guys near the center of the curve because if they don't take the money, someone else will. Thus the most important commodities in baseball are super stars and prospects. The players in between are just filler.

Without delving into the rest of the Rodney debate, Rodney threw a fastball up and in to Jones, an all star hitter, who pulled in his hands, shortened his swing, and barreled it up. Unlikely spot for a gopher ball. Great hitting. Actually a good pitch, bad result.

We better score some runs here. My doctor told me I can't drink for 3 months.

Midseason form. Save something for the home opener!

Musta been the wind... hey, does defensive runs saved count that as a full run? Probably should, right?

The Indians underacheived more than half the year. They showed how important pitching depth is. Still, their line up isn't better than ours. Interesting battle of top end arms vs depth and balance.

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2018/03/tigers_niko_goodrum.html Niko Goodrumsy to make the tigers? Neo punto or neo hocking?

Maybe all he needed was a fresh start.

This is a far far deeper group than were accustomed to. I like that the season isn't hinged to a prospect becoming an instant star or a has been returning to form worth plan b being aaaa roulette. Out of the 10 or so guys who figure to make starts, hopefully we can find 5 or 6 who pitch well and 2-3 who tear it up.

I'm a little concerned. Our success last year may or may not be sustainable. A lot of things broke right for us. We've added some pieces but our margin for error is still very thin. Psychologically, it's hard not to let down slightly after an emotional unexpected run. Culturally, the Twins have perhaps a bit of a history in coming out of the gates less than fully prepared. After an emotional run falling just short of the playoffs 3 years back, we came out the next season 0-9. Anecdotally, Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins would routinely come in throwing bp. Grossman claims he only needs 10 ab. We've routinely come out of the gates with pitchers less than fully stretched. Requiring early overuse of the pen often leading to roster moves and crunches. I don't think this team has enough track record to assume they'll be able to crank it up as soon as the games matter. Glenn and Nathan could do it somewhat, but I think that's the exception. Threat level orange, imo. I do not knoe if the team is preparing to battle against regression or just assuming they'll pick right up where they left off.

86 to 88? Wasn't he around 92 earlier this spring? Velocity for some pitchers doesn't come back until into real games. (E.g. Joe Nathan) If he doesn't get the velocity back, diagnose tired arm & continued thoracic outlet syndrome and send to the 60 day dl. He's under contract for 2 years. It's entirely possible he's done. But it's not that unlikely he could bounce back once 100% or develop a knuckle ball.

It's actually very smart. We're sending them by Delorian back to a time when we really needed young pitching prospects.

Or maybe Ryan was more innovative than other GMs. He low-balled an inflated market before collusion was cool. Truly a GM ahead of his time. Just needed the rest of the league to play along.

Byron shouldn't and won't be paid like trout or harper. Obviously any reasonable extension should be considered. Hopefully Buxton is smart with his money, but few young baseball players are. It's more likely that he could use the raise.

Victims of our own humanity... better to care for a minute or not care at all?

TK would say something to the effect of, "every season you'll automatically win 50 and lose 50. It's what you do in those other 62 games that defines your season." In short, it's a long season. The small percentages add up. A nice that increases your chances of winning by only 1% is worth 1.62 wins in the end on average. If you go from a move costing your team 1% to gaining 1%, that's over 3 wins difference by season's end. No one is doubting Dozier's productivity. Just whether batting him first maximizes that production in the search of those extra percentage points over the course of the years.

I think we're done. Sano missed a loot of time last... every season. Morrison is a fine insurance plan to replace the bat. I don't think it's good business to bring in Sanchez on an MLB contract only to pull any chance of making the team out from under him. Unless we told him ahead of time he only gets a chance to compete with whoever we bring in. Don't need a bad rep worth players and agents.

Minnetonka Bay Rays.

Is Sanchez on the 40 man? It could be that a stipulation was made with Sanchez and or Aybar that a roster spot be held open so they feel they have an actual shot of making the team. Sanchez would need to make the 25 man as well. Polads have 2.5 mil reasons to cut him.

They should have started surrounding the core two years ago. Bit by bit. Then you don't habe to go all in for 1 season.

I think the concern about the weight stems from the team's concern. If his bosses weren't concerned we wouldn't be either. At least not to the same extent. The team actually talks to the kid. So public concern from the fo is a thing. Probably not a big thing. But it's there. Way behind the k's but still there.

FTW!

I agree that Mauer has an important year coming up. I disagree that fans and especially posters are overly harsh. First, posters like Mike are using actual stats and comparisons. Granted stats don't tell the whole story. But what does Joe do that doesn't show up in the stats? 2nd, the contract. Of course people are frustrated that by far his best ever season came the year before he signed good contract. He missed April that year. He hit 11 hr in May. 8 or 9 in June. And 8 or 9 the rest of the year. What was he doing in April? 3rd, a lot of what is considered criticism of Mauer is just not agreeing with posts that praise him. Greater than Puckett? Depends how you look at it, but a statement like that is only really asking for Mauer-bashing. I'm sorry, but although I don't blame Mauer for not being a leader, and I personally question whether he's a winner, it does play into perception. Like Wiggins for the Wolves, it too often is difficult to tell whether he cares whether the team wounds or loses. Wasn't his first ever game winning hit last season? Better than Puckett?

First, it's not like posters critical of Sano's shape are cheering against him. They want him to reach his full potential. Same as those defending him. Whether or not weight is a factor, it certainly could be. Wouldn't we want a player with the potential for greatness to give himself every opportunity? Second, strike outs, not weight, is Sano's biggest problem and biggest obstacle. I'd he doesn't solve for k, his eating habits don't matter that much. He'll always be a power only 2 outcome hitter. Finally, people need to stop using the word elite for his bat. And stop with big papi and cab comparisons. It does him no services to compare him to players who were and always were better all around hitters. 30 hr is nothing with the new balls. He had darn well better got 30 if esco is going for 20. Sano has never hit for average. His k rate isn't comparable to anyone from any era. The comparisons only fuel the fire when he can't meet the unrealistically high expectations. If the scoring report was plodding slugger and not future mvp, there wouldn't be this much discontent.