Jham

And it's not like savings from 1 year are rolled over into payroll in subsequent years with this franchise. It's added to the profit line.

Seriously? You cite a team record payroll from 7 years ago as evidence we're not cheap? You cite a hypothetical payroll which is looking less likely all the time as evidence of not being cheap? You use losing as an excuse for being cheap even though you're saying they're not cheap? You're claiming that by reaching a figure that would shatter the prior team record payroll but only bring us to a league average payroll is evidence of not being cheap? You reference the tv deal but not the subsidized stadium? You neglect the quotes from ownership before and after the stadium funding deals regarding payroll and player contracts? Come on. There's a hidden cost to waiting. Could have signed pitchers or made trades the last few years and we would have had those guys at Yankee stadium. Or they would have had to come here. Now the last few years are wasted.

Will somebody teach Phil Hughes a knuckle ball already? Trevor May. Byron Buxton. Berrios. Same as last year. And the year before... fool me once...

Here's the conundrum as I see it: There can be only one champion at the end of the season. Although there are a number of ways to build a champion, there is no way to do it economically. You pay big time for elite talent. Either you pay in large contracts, blue chip prospects, or years of losing. Each strategy or balance of strategies has it's pluses and minuses. In addition, there are hidden opportunity costs: the price of doing nothing. Cheaper usually means riskier. Sometimes a new Maytag with a warranty is cheaper than buying a used washer which needs repair and replacement constantly. There can be a cost for going cheaper. Cost per fwar should also escalate. This is because of the shape of the normalcy curve. Ie average ball players are by definition much more common than exceptional. An fwar might cost $7.5 mil. But that's an average. That's actually brought down by all the average players. Elite talent should be worth even more because of scarcity. But top players don't make $50 mil a year, so they get more years.

That was the first 3 homer game for a Twin in decades. I remember we won the first game in a total blow out. Game 2 featured the 3HR from Justin, and I believe a near cycle from Jacque. But the most memorable part of the game for me was Jim Thome knocking Mike Redmond out cold with his vicious follow through in the first inning. Gardy had DH'd Mauer for the nightcap, and the Twins forfeited the DH for the rest of the game. Garza got a couple at bats and even laid down a sac bunt! 1 of 3 3HR games I've witnessed in person. 1, Dave Winfield in the Dome with the Angels. (also doubled off the plexiglass) 2. Justin. 3. Jose Bautista (went to left, center, and oppo).

I must confess, I rarely visit the blog section unless it generates a forum thread. I both applaud TD for asking for help and advice, and scratch my head at its apparent lack of self-awareness leading up to this point. As others have suggested, if you would like more featured blogs, then you must feature your blogs!! If the blogs were as popular as the Articles and Forum Threads, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Articles get front page status. Threads get constant dialogue and buzz. Blogs get... a spot in the dropdown box. Right now, your best threads, articles, and yes, blogs, are difficult to share on facebook, twitter, etc. That's not really acceptable if you're looking for greater exposure. My suggestions: 1) Determine whether a TD model based on free blog content is realistic. Don't ask us. Ask other sites you want to be like how they make their blog work. Is there an easier way to make things profitable? 2) The blogs need to be boosted. Getting some blogs to the front page and to the top of the thread list on the forum would be super-simple fixes. Reference the blogs in articles. Publish some blog postings as TD articles. 3) Boost the bloggers themselves. Nick, Seth, Parker, and John are on a first-name basis on this site. Spycake, Thrylos, and Chief, etc. are well respected posters on the threads. We need to get to know the bloggers. Understand their perspective and credentials. In short, we need to be told why we should read. Readers award attention on TD based on reputation and respect. Anyone can post on the forum. Anyone can start a blog. Not everyone can get article status. You've inadvertently created a second class of writer below the article authors and basically on equal plane as the forum posters. This provides little incentive to read or write. 4) Go read some of the other team forum sites out there, and realize how amazing the site content is and how special the community you've constructed is, and be proud of what you've accomplished. 5) Consider giving up the blog model entirely. Hire another writer to generate more content. Make this a pay site. I do not subscribe to ESPN insider, but I'd subscribe to this site... for the cost of a 2018 prospect handbook included as a free gift to you... 6) Don't ask us. Pay a consultant. There are people who know as much about building and promoting online publications as you know about Twins baseball and the media.

I would love to see analytical studies in bullpen usage. And rate of diminishing returns. Bounce back is a huge variable in determining a relievers success, yet we don't necessarily track that as a stat. Similarly, we don't really track cumulative fatigue. All bodies are not the same. All deliveries are not the same. Yet the rule remains, no more than 3 appearances in 3 days. 5 man rotations good pretty much everyone. Some arms can handle that or more. Some can't. Durability can make up for lack of electric stuff over a full season. Belisle strikes me as a guy who flourished in clean 1 inning stints. Struggled when over worked. Ditto with May and pressley. I think going forward, full usage of 40 man rosters for competitive teams will be really important. Relievers with options who can be recalled when fresh may be the next evolution of bullpen management.

I thought that was a cool story.

Actually the arrow is an homage to his home town in the Dominican,a fishing village nicknamed "la fletcha", the arrow. His father, who passed 6 days before his MLB debut was a fisherman who wore his hat that way to keep the sun out of his eyes. https://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/introducing-fernando-rodney-cap-arrow-numbers-120716

If this is all it takes to get Cole why wouldn't we have traded for him at the deadline last season? Sheesh. I don't think Cole gets value. I'm willing to be patient on Archer and wait for the price yo drop.

The pot is 4 months of games and 100 mil payroll. Many are ignoring the point of comparison. Any team at that point of the season is below 30% to win it all. Maybe less. Successful seasons don't always end in world series championships. I think the odds that prospect x or y contribute in a meaningful way to get us to a even the same position we were in at 5% with Kintzler or Garcia.

Ok, it's just an analogy, but your logic is slightly off. You can't just say the odds say to fold because the odds were 5%. You left out the size of the pot and the size of the bet. If there's a $100 pot and its $1 to stay in, by all means call with a 5% chance. 4.5 months of baseball and $100 million payroll, to throw away your 5% chance for a prospect that probably won't improve your chances in total over his career by as much as he damaged their chances (admittedly small) this year. I don't necessarily see it that way, but that's how it should be analyzed. I do not see either trade as a clear error or success.

His upside is R.A. Dicky. Learn a knuckle ball stat.

To those who inquired as to my questioning whether he has a sense of entitlement, it's only based from the very unique position he's in. (In some sense, entitlement might be an issue for this whole generation of non-impoverished prospects). I've just never heard of a free agent or draft pick asking for recruitment letters. It's different. People questioned the Rays pick for allegedly telling teams not to pick him if they weren't on board with 2 way status. I get that Ohtani is the prettiest girl at the dance. It just seems that a 22 year old kid calling all the shots even in regard to his future boss doesn't fit the humble narrative. Of course is possible to be a humble diva. LeBron is one. Let's hope he's LeBron. Eventually he'll struggle. This is a big step, and it doesn't seem like he expects any struggle. When it happens and he's in a strange country with media and fan pressure and older players who he might take at bats from... how will he handle that? He is asking teams to evaluate how he'll fit. That shows self awareness. But if he doesn't see that his attitude and recruitment might well effect how he's received by his new teammates, that shows lack of awareness. It's refreshing to see a kid who loves the game more than the money. How will those values play in club house filled with very diverse financial backgrounds? Many players grew up poor. Money matters to them. Vets don't like being showed up. Many feel that they earned their big bucks and the right to enjoy that guilt free. He's just a different kind of kid. It could make him special. It could make him am easy target.

Personally, I have a few reservations regarding Ohtani. The guy seems to have a huge sense of entitlement. It makes me wonder how coachable he'll be, and what sort of a team mate. I have huge concerns about how he'll deal with adversity and real struggle. It seems like he's coming in expecting things to be easy. $20 million is a relatively small investment for a talent with that upside. At the same time, we're entering an important stretch for our organization. $20 mil can go to a big FA, a number of useful pieces, absorbing a contract in a beneficial trade, or extending a current or potential trade piece. I'd be looking hard right now while everyone else is chasing the hype train. BTW, asking teams to write you love letters does not scream, "I want the small market and quiet life." But I will say, he'd instantly be one of the biggest and most loved celebrities in Minnesota if he came here.

I was just going to say, it looks like the gophers are suddenly in the market for a qb!

Genetics (metabolism, hormones, etc) certainly play a role. For the record, the rumors I've heard about his work ethic have been more regarding his dedication to right field before 2016 season and his willingness to work on his game during batting practice more than working out. I've heard general concerns about his weight, rumors about his eating, and the one comment I related regarding loving to eat. Some of the questioning, I think, regarding the BP HR Derbies and the preparation for playing 9 seemed somewhat fair. Bottom line, whether he has an eating problem, a gland problem, or an elliptical aversion, the undiscriminating and sometimes cruel equalizer of Major League level competition will identify the weakness, highlight, and attack it. The end result, weight, may well be a limitation for Sano, whether in terms of productivity, longevity, or durability. I suggested that if some organizations still think he's the next Miggy Cabrera, Giancarlo, or Pujols, we should work a trade. Ultimately, I really like the kid, and I hope he does get to that level wherever he is. Especially if it's with us!!

Nick, I think we've all heard the allusions to weight. Weight is pretty universally related to activity and diet. He's a pro-athlete. Activity isn't the problem. He's also at an age where this shouldn't be a problem. If there is an issue, it will only get worse without change. Your asking for specific sources is fair, but the posters are just the messengers. You've read the numerous vague accounts same as everyone else. You can say there is reason for concern without having 100% proof. For instance, I remember distinctly reading an article on the team website a few years back where he started his interests are fishing and eating. It made me nervous. Don't know if it's an issue or not, but my concern is real, and it's based on my wanting to see him succeed. Not because I want to pile on or shame. Lastly, what if... our expectations were skewed from the beginning. His k's and contact never suggested Cab or Pujols. He's put up great power numbers but not elite. And his k's and contact are where you'd expect given his history. I think it's far more likely that a player will gain power with age than contact and average. This limits his potential and has been a limit from day 1. I'll still cheer for the guy. I still love the guy. He just makes me nervous!

That's my thought as well. You should be able to purchase a solid prospect for $4 mil plus a legitimate starting pitcher from the team you ultimately battled for a home wild card game. In retrospect, international signing pool money may have been better than the prospect if we were set on trading Garcia to the Yankees.

Shaw and Kintzler for me. I think Shaw's weight and build and Kintzler's K rate keep people away from these very effective and mentally tough arms.

I get what you're saying. I'm not even sure we disagree on anything except team expectations. We're in agreement that May shouldn't be inked in to the rotation. The plan should be to get him back in at some point if he's ready and we feel he can make a difference. Regarding the World Series, I'm not sure we are title contenders either. But we can win the division. That's a reasonable goal considering that this group will probably NEVER be good enough to be World Series favorites on par with last year's Indians, Astros, and Dodgers. You have to get incrementally better. The Astros weren't true contenders the last couple years, but they came close enough to see what more they had to do. The Yankees this year got that experience. A lot does have to go right for us to be World Series contenders this year. But if you break it down over the next few years, and take some steps each year, it's not so intimidating. We have to start putting the pieces together now including, most likely, a division title and/or playoff run in order to set us up for a WS run. We only have so many years of this core remaining. I'll say the same thing I said last year. If this core in its prime is not able to contend, then what's the point of building around this core? Trade Sano for a haul and point to 2021. They showed they're good enough, imo. Push now. If it doesn't work, and the core flops, they should still have enough trade value to start again.

See, you're depending on peripherals turning into results. That's my problem with depending on May as a starter. He had decent FIP but his xFIP wasn't as nice because he wasn't giving up HR despite lots of hard contact which could have driven the high BABIP. I'm fine with letting him compete. I'm saying I don't plan around him in a year we should contend.

It did make sense. Expecting him to produce for a season as a 3ish starter did not.

I thought it was foolish to depend on May last season. He's never shown sustained success as a starter. His peripherals were nice but rarely transferred to on field results. Similar to Mejia, his swing and miss stuff was offset by erratic control, inability to get deep into games and in May's case, some very hard contact mixed in. He also has a bad back. I like the guy. I think he's going to be successful in either the pen or starting rotation. But in a competitive year, his production should certainly not be relied upon.

I think your probably right. I think the issue Cheif and I have is that a bad day can really skew the metrics. I think Rosario had that this year. A few bad throws and drops negated a lot of solid play. If hee caught a few of the balls that he clamored after a long run, his metrics probably look much better. Sort of like a bad inning to a reliever.