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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    No doubt injuries derail the best laid plans. The answer as to why they don't just sign guys that can hit both LHP and RHP is pretty simple. They are starters and they cost a lot more. It's also harder to get them on one-year contracts. Were there specific players you had in mind that would have been a better fit?
  2. Major League Ready
    It would be a big plus for this team if we get the same type of boost we got from Lewis/Wallner, and Julien last year. While I appreciate the depth provided by Farmer / Santana / Margot, their ceilings are not that high and they have no chance of contributing in the future. It would be very good news if a prospect crushed AAA and then earned their way on to the ML roster much like Lewis/Julien/Wallner. Kepler is a different deal if he is playing like he did the last 4 months of 2023. That rookie better be tearing it up and the return substantial. It could make sense with Thielbar if the BP depth turns out as good as we hoped, assuming once again a decent return.
  3. Major League Ready
    2B is still an up the middle / important defensive position. It's not as idiotic as picking Sabato in the 1st round and definitely not as bad as picking Cavaco over Carroll and Stot.
  4. Major League Ready
    What does this mean? Are you saying that defensive metrics like OAA and DRS should be considered more reliable than the eye test?
  5. Major League Ready
    Nothing would be made of a veteran player stinking in spring training. He is good enough defensively that they would not even consider waiving him unless he absolutely sucked offensively for two-thirds of the season and Camargo was crushing AAA.
  6. Major League Ready
    I am not sure I would characterize Farmer as a short-side platoon player. They have always used him for defensive versatility and the ability to back-up SS. The fact that he hits LHP very well adds to his value because he is starter caliber against LHP but I don't think it's fair to say his only value is as a platoon player. The same type of nuance is true with Sanatana IMO. He can be primarily a platoon player and also have some value playing against RHP because of his defense. I hope the equation is much closer to 1:1 as opposed to the 2:1 you have predicted. I would do that by playing Castro in some capacity everyday a RHP is on the mound. He can B/U LF/CF/3B/2B and even SS and let the regular starters DH. I would even DH him over Santana against RHP. Where the $$$ are concerned. The inference that the Twins failed in the challenge to bring in players at a low cost because those players are making a lot of money that is being paid by another team makes no sense. What difference does it make what the player is being paid if the team isn't paying it? You are as logical and fair as anyone on this site but you might want to reconsider this one.
  7. Major League Ready
    This is a good explanation. It only stands to reasons that the number of opportunities a player has to get an out of create a DRS, the greater the +/-. It’s a qualitative measure weighted by a quantitative measure. What do you make of Arraez vs Julien? Arraez had 433 attempts at 2B and had an OAA of -10. Julien had roughly half the number of attempts (220) and posted an OAA of zero. Theoretically, if Julien had double the attempts, the numbers would be precisely the same. This also makes sense when one of the players is average. Should we believe Julien performed better? If we disagree with the rating, the problem is not quantity in this comparison. It would have to be that the qualitative measures lack a level of accuracy that creates a false measure.
  8. Major League Ready
    Polanco was going to be a bench player. While he is a better overall player, Farmer is simply a much better fit for this roster. The primary role is platooning with Julien and Farmer has a career wRC+ against LHP 26 points higher than Polanco and Farmer is a viable back-up at SS. We also would not have gotten nearly as much in trade for Farmer. This was a no-brainer.
  9. Major League Ready
    Not sure where these numbers are coming from. He had 1.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR. What concerns me is that the 3 previous he produced a total of 1.2 WAR or an average of .4 WAR.
  10. Major League Ready
    That's a very good summation Doc. I would add Canterino as the wildcard. It sure would help now and our future if he is finally healthy and lives up to his great potential.
  11. Major League Ready
    How good he was and how good he is going to be at 38 are two very different things. He was a great player but he has not been that player for the past 4 seasons. I would be very happy if he can do the job he was brought here for which is to platoon against LHP where Kirilloff is bad. They would probably be better of having Castro as the DH against RHP or Castro spelling Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and even Correa while those players DH. To put it in perspective, Gallo's wRC+ was 10 point higher than Santana last year against RHP and Santana's numbers were up from the previous 2 years against RHP last year.
  12. Major League Ready
    I think there is merit in both positions here. Santana's last 4 years definitely do not instill a great deal of confidence for me and there is always the threat of further decline at 38. The potential for greater ceiling and a long-term contributor is also a consideration. On the other hand, the safest path is to start with the veteran and replace him when one of those options mentioned demonstrates they are ready. Of course, we know they will likely give the veteran a longer leash than most of us would. Perhaps the silver lining is that all of this should be worked out in time to construct the best team for October.
  13. Major League Ready
    I sure hope they don't pull Kirilloff from 1B against RHP on a regular basis to replace him with someone that has had a wRC+ of 75-94 for the last 3 years, especially when that guy is 38 years old. The odds of a degradation in performance are far higher than an improvement. Kirilloff's wRC+ last year against RHP was 138. The defensive improvement does not make up for a 40-50 point difference in wRC+.
  14. Major League Ready
    Bellinger was not a one year deal. It was a 3-year deal. You also assume he would have come here instead of the Cubs which is very likely a false assumption. If your logic is he opts out if things go well, that kind of logic is how people responsible for a $300M P&L get fired. That is absolute incompetence in the real world. Now after dozens of posts on they should just do it this year, you are changing the entire premise to that it does not have to be a 1 year thing now that it is evident it's not feasible to be a one-year thing. It's also not a good idea to negate the potential of signing our young core to extensions. Don't BS me about not having the energy to debate this after a spending hours upon hours over the course of a couple hundred posts ranting about spending. You don't want to debate it because you know you can't reasonably illustrate how the spending could have been a one-year thing. Our differing goals have absolutely nothing to do with the viability of containing the spending to one year.
  15. Major League Ready
    It would be an equally big deal if the arm slot gave him better command.
  16. Major League Ready
    What free agent of impact could they have signed that only impacted this year? Those players get 3 or more years and the real impact players are 5+ years. They are going to be at roughly $127M next year with departures, salary increases, and arbitration increases. They would have been over $150M next year as well if they did not spend one dime replacing any of the departures or filling any new holes. How could this have been contained to this year? We should also consider if it's a good idea for a below average revenue team to spend $60M or more on 2 players or 85M on 3 players with Lopez or $100M with Buxton. We should ask if there is a single example of a below average revenue team being successful while spending $100M on 4 players. If you can't come up with a single example, you might have your answer as to why they are not following the strategy you endorse. Do you have an example? Of course, you know that I have the data for every 90 win team going back 25 years and there is not a single example. The far better strategy would be to use the money to extend a couple of our young players and that's not really not possible while pursuing the practices you insist upon.
  17. Major League Ready
    Very few people follow baseball the way you do. I have a VERY hard time believing you don't have a good idea of where the Twins profitability ranks. If you don't understand their relative profitability why would you complain? How do you have a basis to judge? I do believe you don't care. You simply don't want to acknowledge the truth. The complaint looks pretty silly if you acknowledge they are one of the lowest ranking teams in terms of profitability. We see the relative merit of players backed up by very good evidence. NEVER does someone complain about spending and then provide any proof as to the twins relative spending. I can't imagine how many posts you have made complaining. How about just one with hard numbers that show the Twins don't spend commensurate with revenue.
  18. Major League Ready
    Lots of people in baseball are making a lot of money regardless of performance. Several teams made much more while sucking. Prince Fileder made almost twice that much and produce negative WAR Ellsbury, Bumgarner, Hosmer and several others were so bad the teams paid them to quit or play elsewhere. The fair question is how does that $114M over 10 years compare to the other owners in the league. I mean that's what we are really talking about here. Scherzer, Verlander and many others will make this much over a 3 year period, not 10 so the profit number needs context. The fair questions is how greedy are Twins relatively speaking. Can you be objective enough to put this in perspective by actually responding how this level of profit compares to other teams over that period? Give us rank even if it’s a guess. 1-30 how does the $114M compares to others. It’s in the bottom 7 for certain and probably ranks around 25th overall, right. Give us a number.
  19. Major League Ready
    Wouldn't you say this is a deep team?
  20. Major League Ready
    Insure like it did for the Padres or Mets or like it insured we would get a player that produced far more than 1.1 WAR like it did with Carlos Correa or Christian Vasquez or Anthony Rendon or Carlos Rodon, etc. We got 2.8 WAR total from our 3 highest paid players ($58M) last year so it's far from "insured". Our six highest WAR position players made a total of roughly $14M and produced 14.9 WAR
  21. Major League Ready
    If you bother to look at my statement, I said it was repeatedly ignored entirely. Article after article and poster after poster did not acknowledge it. What you think is the appropriate level has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I was validating the concept of what is required to make up for revenue loss not trying to prove if it was more devastating to an individual. The math does not change if it's a corporation. I will use payroll directly. If revenue is $300M and payroll is $150M payroll is 50% of revenue. If revenue goes down by $50M, a $25M reduction in payroll does not cover the lost revenue. The fact that payroll was 50% of revenue has nothing to do with the calculation of what's required to compensate for the loss. This is about as simplistic as finance metric get. I at no point suggested the Twins could not survive. I said that people that insisted the payroll only need to be cut by half of the revenue lost simply did not understand the math. You are arguing based on a belief. You are welcome to that belief. I might have a different belief but that is not the content of my post. My post suggests there has been perpetual misrepresentations and flawed financial constructs. You want to focus on those beliefs instead of the financial constructs that were the subject of the post.
  22. Major League Ready
    I did not know this history. Thanks to those of you who took the time to present an informed point of view. The informed and misconstrued rants featuring inaccuracies and misrepresentation have gotten out of hand.
  23. Major League Ready
    From Steve Adams chat today ... Hey who would you rather have Taylor or Margot.? Steve Adams 1:05 They're reasonably comparable players as RHH outfielders who can handle all three spots at an above-average to plus level. Taylor has more speed and power but twice as many strikeouts. Margot has better bat-to-ball skills and more OBP. I assume Taylor's going to cost more than the year and $4MM for which the Twins acquired Margot, so I'd probably lean toward him on price alone. I'd probably lean that way anyhow, honestly, as the enormous K% and miserable OBP give MAT a lower floor.
  24. Major League Ready
    At this point I am hoping a couple of the role-playing veterans get pushed out by the all-star break. That would be great news for the team if Martin/Lee/Miranda, etc were so good that they forced their way onto to the team like Lewis, Julien and Wallner did last year.
  25. Major League Ready
    They did phase Gallo out just very slowly.
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