Major League Ready
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I wondered how you came to this conclusion. Did you do the math? I was about to do the math myself when I realized I could ask AI to do the math for me. Turns out the payroll neutral cap using a $150M floor is $294M. Your assumption has no merit. It would appear the owners offer is to provide a payroll neutral model that would give teams /fans better competitive balance and the players are using this desire to provide competitive balance to get a bigger cut.
- 86 replies
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- joe ryan
- ryan jeffers
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Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room
Major League Ready replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you are betting there will be a prolonged strike, why would you sit on your hands, especially given the current team is not a contender. Move the players set to expire this year and next and position the team for 2028. -
Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room
Major League Ready replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I ran this scenario through A/I and the floor of $171 and a cap of $246M makes sense. It's pretty close to a wash in terms of total payroll spend. The top revenue teams would need to provide a substantial subsidy to the low revenue teams. The bottom teams would be losing money for certain with the present revenue sharing model. The valuation for those teams would literally go to zero unless the rest of the league forces the top 7 teams to give the bottom 7 teams would have to cover a $500M subsidy over the current sharing model. I think it would be good for the game but I suspect there are legal obstacles to taking revenue from these teams. -
Let's hope it's a confidence thing with Lewis and this reset at AAA is just exactly what he needs. I am skeptical but it would be very unfortunate if he becomes a AAAA player. We should all be rooting for this young man's future to be a productive member of the ML club.
- 21 replies
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- royce lewis
- minor league report
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Yes, 3B is definitely the best fit for Lee. There is also the fact that the Twins have 4 guys that are at least as good or better at 2B. (Arcia / Kriedler / Clemmons and Keaschall) You could even make an argument we would be better off with Martin at 2B if not for Martin's significant defensive improvement in the OF.
- 19 replies
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- royce lewis
- ryan jeffers
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You might be right. I will take note and we will see what happens next fall/winter.
- 65 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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I would question how much Skubal's Arb 3 ruling impacts Ryan. Skubal's bWAR for the last 2 years is 13.2. Ryan's is 7/1. Skubal is the next level up and that level often decides playoff games. Dylan Cease got $13.75 in his Arb 3 season and his performance has tracked a fair amount higher than Ryan. If Ryan continues to perform close to his current level he might get close to Cease money. Just an opinion of course.
- 65 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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I pray for a big haul from Ryan and hopefully Jeffers stays hot and brings a good prospect. I hate to see Buxton go but as they say ... if the price is right. The Guardians are once again on top of the central and the Ray's have the best record in the AL. Those two teams consistently trade for younger / cheaper talent with more years of control. Why, when fans hate it? Because the only way a team with half the revenue can possibly construct a true contender is to trade a year or a year and a half of control for 7 years of control at a cost far less per WAR than free agents or even the last couple years of arbitration. These teams have traded many productive players with .5 - 1.5 years of control for prospects or MLB ready players that performed well for them for 5+ years and then traded that player for a player that gave them another 5 or 6 years of production. (ie. Cory Kliuber) That's a big part of their success. Many fans hate the idea but the evidence and the success as compared to other organizations is quite clear.
- 65 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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I have been watching and rooting for Fedko since he took off in AA last year so I want to see him get a shot. However, I am not sure how you can come to the conclusion he should have been up by August. He didn't even get promoted to AAA until August 1st. He was pretty good at AAA (.829 OPS) wRC+ was 15% above league average. This just does not scream promotion. There is no indication IMO that the organization does not believe in Fedko. He has been playing at a higher level this year through 137 ABs. If he is still playing at the same level after 250 or 300 ABs, we can start to question why he is not up.
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I am not assuming anything, I said "if he plays well". I even said maybe it's far-fetched. He never hit anywhere near this level in Milb. IDK how he is going to hit which is why I qualified my statement. So, no, I am not assuming anything. You are assuming he won't play well. I am suggesting there is a chance.
- 60 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- royce lewis
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It's a free country. Think whatever you want to think. I think, if he's playing great, teams will be quite satisfied to have that version of good. Are they going to say, he has only been good in one other season so let's ignore how he's playing right before eyes? Maybe he will go back to sucking. Maybe the entire premise that he may play well is far-fetched but if he plays well that will drive his value IMO.
- 60 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- royce lewis
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There are many examples of players that fell off the map for a couple years. Do you think teams will just ignore his actual results if he performs well in his return to the ML level? I doubt they will be too concerned that he was bad last year if he's good this year, especially on a two-month rental.
- 60 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- royce lewis
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This is not a guy that was a fringe player. The man was an all-star and not long ago. If he comes up and hits above league average, he will have value given his defensive versatility. It won't be a blue-chip prospect but they can a decent prospect for him.
- 60 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- royce lewis
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What Should the Twins Do at First Base?
Major League Ready replied to Ray Stuedemann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
True but Mauer cost $22M/year more than Clemmons. I would take Cody and two $11M/year RPs over Mauer in his last 5 years.- 84 replies
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- kody clemens
- victor caratini
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It would be very unfortunate if the Twins could not cash in a valuable trade asset of an impending free agent in a year it's obvious they are not a contender. They don't need any special skills. Just the ability to look to Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland and recognize those team don't miss these opportunities. This team's future could look very good if they can cash in on Ryan and Jeffers at the deadline.
- 50 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- josh bell
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Week in Review: Patience Wears Thin
Major League Ready replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The way they ignored athleticism in 1st and 2nd round picks drove me crazy. They have drafted athletes the last 3 years but prior to 2023, going back to Buxton, they drafted guys that were limited athletically. Lee, Sabato, Rooker, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Gordon was not as bad but I did not see him as being worthy of the #6 pick. Cavaco was fairly athletic but just did not a track record worthy of a 1st rounder, especially with Corbin Carroll and Bryson Stott available. I agree completely on bringing up Arcia. Not long ago I wanted them to just get Culpepper up here. However, I have been watching about half of the Saints games and I am seeing the same thing as you with Culpepper. He has some things to work on offensively and AAA is a better place for working on that refinement. A couple months won't hurt and Arcia just could fetch a decent prospect at the deadline if he continues to hit.- 20 replies
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- bailey ober
- matt wallner
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Give Lewis another couple weeks. If he does not get going, send him down and bring up Arcia to play everyday between SS, 3B, and 2B. He probably gets traded at the deadline if he hits reasonably well and Culpepper gets another couple months to get ready. Same with Bell. Dump him, eat the salary. Make the team better short-term while auditioning players that can be part of the future. We could even move Keaschall to 1B in platoon with Clemmons. Maybe give Mendez a shot. Gonzalez is showing signs of getting going. Perhaps he could step up in a month or two. Right now it's a wasted roster spot. Outman is only a problem if one of Buxton, Martin or Larnach is out for an extended period. If that happens, they can bring up Roden when he is ready or give whichever AAA guy has it going the best.
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- game recap
- trevor larnach
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Certainly not meaningless but far from perfect. IMO RE24 us the best measure followed by wOBA.
- 56 replies
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- game recap
- trevor larnach
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Clemens has a wRC+ of 116. He should not be lumped in with the other three.
- 56 replies
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- game recap
- trevor larnach
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Fedko had a horrible start to the season. He looked lost. I was very disappointed becasue I like to root for the underdog. However, the last month his wRC+ is 169 with an OPS of 1.092. He looks like a different player. I would like to see him get a shot after the deadline if he maintains a wRC+ above .900. Perhaps play a little 1B to get more playing time.
- 89 replies
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- matt wallner
- royce lewis
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The break-out player of the year has quite a few candidates right now. I hope it stays that way.
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- minor league report
- quinn mcdaniel
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1st round picks fail at a significant rate but this organization has produced very little from their first-round picks since Buxton. I particularly hated the Jay, Cavaco, and Sabato picks. To be fair, the players drafted the past 4 years look fairly promising if we can believe Brooks Lee can sustained his improved play. I would like to compare teams with A/I but we would have to wait another 10 years to have the comprehensive data to accurately compare team results across the league for the last 10 years. Year Player Overall Pick 2012 Byron Buxton 2 2012 José Berríos 32 2013 Kohl Stewart 4 2014 Nick Gordon 5 2015 Tyler Jay 6 2016 Alex Kirilloff 15 2017 Royce Lewis 1 2017 Brent Rooker 35 2018 Trevor Larnach 20 2019 Keoni Cavaco 13 2019 Matt Wallner 39 2020 Aaron Sabato 27 2021 Chase Petty 26 2021 Noah Miller 36 2022 Brooks Lee 8 2023 Walker Jenkins 5 2023 Charlee Soto 34 2024 Kaelen Culpepper 21 2024 Kyle DeBarge 33 2025 Marek Houston 16 2025 Riley Quick 36

