Major League Ready
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Everything posted by Major League Ready
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I was thinking about this myself. They could leave Clemmen at 2B and invest in a 1B. Clemmens moves to super utility when Houston comes up and Culpepper goes to 1B. That's probably what they do if they are big believers in Houston.
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Mapping the Minnesota Twins' Future Payroll
Major League Ready replied to Peter Labuza's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My understanding is that it includes player benefits. That make perfect sense. Every business includes the cost of benefits in personnel cost. It also provides consistency for the floor regardless of if compensation is increased via salary or benefits. It's roughly $23M/team so the payroll minimum would be $148M. -
Twins looking at Logan Gilbert?
Major League Ready replied to Bangkok Twins Fan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Trading a good prospect for yet another SP that would become a free agent in 2027 might be the dumbest thing they could possibly do. -
They might also have Kreidler or Ross as a bench player. They could have a roster with 7 guys that can play better OF than Larnach. If they can trade him before the arbitration deadline, great but I sure am not worried about Larnach leaving a hole in the roster.
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That's what the Twins have been doing for the last decade and it's not worked out so good. They have plenty OF depth and one key acquisition at 1B or 2B would allow them to move Lewis. What would be really great would be if Keaschall could play quite a bit at 1B. That would allow them to hide Keaschall's defense. Getting a good 2B and putting Keaschall at 1B/Of and Clemmens at 1B/OF gives this team way more ceiling IMO. We also gain ceiling by moving on from Ober. One of the young guys has to be better if we are going to improve this team.
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I would much rather they reconstruct the roster. Bring in a 2B via trade or free agency. Put Keaschall at 1B/OF and let Clemmons play pretty much every day as a super utility or DH. They should have Roden doing 1B drills this off-season too.
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The average cost paid per WAR is not the same as value. Nobody is paying Bailey Ober $14.4M. Just as nobody would pay $24M/year for Brooks Lee. A lot of free agents drastically underperform which makes the average WAR per dollar spent much lower than expected.
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It's time to shake it up. Players like Larnach, Lewis and Ober time will not get it done. They have refused to make the changes others have spoke of and the result is clear. Let's not continue down the same path to mediocrity.
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- joe ryan
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3 Up, 3 Down: Emmanuel Rodriguez
Major League Ready replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think you have to make a distinction in type of trade. Trading prospects for an established player is strategically very different than trading for unproven players in whatever form such a trade is made. I have only looked at the players that produce 1.5 WAR or greater so I can't speak to all the players and trades your reference here. However, among those productive players, none of them were acquired after producing a season of 1.5 WAR or greater. In other words, all of those players that were acquired in trade were prospects in some form. The off-season discussions on acquiring players via trade is generally focused on acquiring established players to immediately impact the roster. Our discussion here has been improving the 2027 roster. So, when Gman stated, " I think there are very few teams that build a contender from trades", he is right if he meant this in the context of acquiring established players. -
Why would they need to keep Larnach / Lewis / Ober? They have Ryan / Lopez / Bradley / Kremer / Prielipp / Matthews / Rojas and possibly Festa. They have Buxton / Jenkins / Keaschall / Rodriquez / Roden / Martin for OF. If they sign a 1B or 2B FA, Clemmens could be used in the OF if needed. Lewis is easily replaced by a free agent. Clemmens and Keaschall could also contribute at 1B. They would be a better team if the used the money from Larnach / Ober and Lewis to sign louis Arraez or Brandon Lowe at 2B. I could even see filing 1B with France and putting Clemmens at 2B until Houston makes his way up and Culpepper goes to 2B. At that point, Clemmens moves to a super utility role. These combinations are definitely better than having Lewis at 1B and Larnach in the OF, especially defensively. I will take my chances with Preilipp or Matthews outperforming Ober as a SP. Could he up the velocity out of the pen and be good for a couple innings in relief. Maybe. That's a reasonable question.
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Rotowire says Spring Training.
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Those 3 would account for almost $20M. Spend that money on one good player or 2 RPs.
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That's a good point about Sands having an option.
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How much excess value do any of those players have? What would Lewis, Larnach, or Sands bring in trade? Not much. They could keep Lewis and still open his roster spot by making Lewis a utility player. They need to upgrade some positions. Running the same failed players out there and expecting a different result is not a good plan. We would be in much better shape had they accepted this reality last off-season.
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Yep. There was just no need to make that move. However, I believe Falvey thought he could rebuild much more quickly than a normal rebuild. When I looked at what he was doing, I thought he could put an entertaining young team on the field for 26 and 27 and be back in contention in 2028. If Rojas is a legit #2, it's a good trade. If he is a back of the BP arm and Roden is an average OFer, it's still a decent trade. In that context, he was making the kind of move that gives a chance at contention that some of us want to see. The vision is not hard to see now. Had they traded Ryan for Tolle and another good piece, perhaps even Arais and they had traded Jeffers for Eyanson, they could be in great shape by 2028 and well beyond. The rotation would be Tolle / Bradley / Rojas / Prielipp and Matthews or Eyanson. That would look pretty good with Quick / Ellwanger / Soto / Wachsman and Bohorquez as the next wave. Plus, Hill had they not decided they were a contender. Point being, I didn't like the Varland trade but the direction they were headed gave them a chance to build a contender. That's a lot more appealing to me than operating on the delusion this team was a contender in 2026. They still have a lot of young talent but they certainly have not maximized their opportunity like Milwaukee or Cleveland would have.
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- alan roden
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I would guess there were some White Sox fans that proclaimed trading Crochett and Kopech was "just plain stupid". No way they make the playoffs this year without those trades.
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I never understand this focus on drafting only when it comes to building a pitching staff. The 23 Rays won 99 games. They drafted one of their top 10 pitchers by WAR. Their best SP (Eflin) was a free Agent Acquisition. The other 8 were acquired as prospects.
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- taj bradley
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I actually screwed up that paragraph for the brewers. It should have said 8 were drafted and 7 acquired as prospects.
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This all makes more sense now. IDK if they will trade Ryan because I think Tom Pohlad is more interested in appearances, attendance, and positioning the team for a sale than he is building a contender. Trading him now would illustrate they gave up very substantial value to support a team that simply was not anywhere near ready. That said ... that's actually a pretty good plan if they can get something for Ryan. I hear you on it being early for our young guys but extending guys really early seems to be gaining acceptance and working out pretty well.
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That's a creative and viable option.
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I think you need to look back at my post. I said keeping those players would cost an additional $50M based on the numbers you suggested. If you add a front-line starter and an impact INF as you suggested, that's in the neighborhood of another $50M for a total of $100M. Now, you did not say "front of the rotation SP" but as I said previously, anything less would be pretty inconsequential given the SP depth.
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It's not as simple as The Rays and Brewers do a better job developing players. They manage the roster and their assets better giving themselves more chances to produce cheap talent. The 2026 Rays had 13 players that produced 1.5 WAR or greater. 7 were acquired as prospects. 5 were drafted and one was a free agent. The 2026 Brewers had 16 players that produced 1.5 WAR or greater. 8 were drafted 7 were acquired as prospects and one acquired in Trade as a reasonably established player. That player being William Contreras who had one season with 2 WAR. The Brewers traded away a Cy Young SP in year where they were expected to be good and had the best record in the league the next year. The Twins kept Ryan. We miss the core of the differences if we ignore how these teams manage assets.
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What you are advocating is pretty much the same team (Ryan / Lopez / Jeffers / Minter) for $50M additional per year plus what whatever we would spend on 2B and a SP. That would be close to an additional $100M/year if the SP is a front of the rotation starter and anything less would be pointless given the current depth. I don't see that happening unless the CBA changes dramatically and the implementation is immediate. It's not how successful teams have been built. They will wait for Houston to take over SS and move Culpepper to 2B. They also are not going to give Jeffers a 4-year contract when they have Lackey / Tinney and Diaw on the horizon. If they extend anyone the priority should be players like Jenkins and Culpepper. That's a far more sustainable model with greater upside.
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We traded for Lopez. Perhaps I should have stated specifically that trading for an established can be a great move. Of course, that was not the point. The point was that trading for established players is not essential as sometimes stated here and generally contributes far less than trading for prospects. BTW .... Just to put Yehlich in perspective, he had 2 really good seasons for Milwaukee. Yehlich has average exactly 2 fWAR over the last 7 seasons. Solid but not a needle mover.
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People keep saying this but take a look at the roster of successful modest revenue teams. Trading for established players has a miniscule role in building contenders among teams in the bottom half of revenue. Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland have a sum total of zero players that produced 1.5 WAR that were acquired via trade as an established player.
