Major League Ready

IMO this is an over simplification. We know $$ are going to be a little tighter this year. You are not accounting for the dollar difference between Rooker and Rosario being redeployed. Rooker and $10M toward Odorizzi >>> than Rosario or Rooker + Tijuan Walker + Clippard (type) >>>> Rosario.

I believe he as the ability to be absolutely great but his physical condition has very little to do with his productivity being average since the middle of 2018, IMO. His approach and plate disciple is in the bottom 1-2% of the league. His enormous talent allows him to produce reasonably well in spite of his horrid plate discipline. IMO, developing a better approach would far outweigh anything he could do in terms of conditioning. He has demonstrated an unwillingness or inability to do this for the last 2 1/2 seasons. Who knows ... this could be the thing that makes him willing to adapt.

I hear ya Doc but let's at least look at this from a couple of angles. 2020 is not a great basis of comparison. Let's use 2019 when the team was great offensively as our basis of comparison. Since then we added Donaldson and Rosario was pretty average with a wRC+ of 103 in 2019. Do I want to put a rookie in the 4 hole? No! However, I think one of the Rookies can do that or better than 103 and I think we can find a suitable hitter for that role. Perhaps even Cruz because we have several guys that could hit 1-3. Perhaps we add someone like Schwarber who had a really bad 2020 but so did some other really good players. He had an OPS of 871 in 2019 and 823 in 2018. He might even make more sense than Cruz if he is the bridge to Larnach/Kirilloff.

I agree. However, 2020 was so weird and the production of many great players was off considerably. Is Kepler going to be the 2019 version (great), the 2018 version (average) or the 2017 version (not so good)? This might be an oversimplification but he improved against LH pitching in 2018 and was very good against LH pitching in 2019. He is 1 ½ years younger than Rosario and in the heart of his prime. His ability to back-up CF is also quite important given Buxton is prone to injury. Of course, the relative success of Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker, and I guess Celestino might also plays into Kepler’s future with the club. We could add where Lewis ends up playing to that list because he could end up in CF. The good news is Kepler is inexpensive for the next couple years and reasonable for the next two after. The Twins are positioned to let these scenarios play out. I am hoping we see the Kepler of 2019 going forward and Larnach / Kirilloff are both studs. Would love to have that problem!

I am not sure if they are the same people (in general) that did not like him 3-5 years ago. However, I was a big fan starting his last year in AAA. I saw him play in the AFL Championship game and he was extremely impressive. He was one of my favorite players when he came up. My wife was a big fan too. However, I remember telling her at some point that ML pitchers were going to abuse him if he did not improve his plate discipline.

Moving AAA here is big. For starters, it has to be advantageous in terms of really knowing what's going on in terms of managing the final stages of development for players that reach this level. Of course, it also makes it much easier to give guys that are close a look for a few days or even utilize them as an expanded roster.

Supporters are clinging to Rosario’s production 3-5 years ago. I think the key difference in opinion is if you believe the drastic decline in OPS and wRC+ after his brilliant start to 2018 is a fluke or did the league adjust? If you believe it’s a fluke … no doubt the Twins should have resigned him. If you believe the league adjusted … Rosario’s decline indicates an inability to counter the adjustments made by the league. Should we make personnel decisions on what the player did in the distant past or more recent productivity? Should we make roster decisions based on past performance or what we believe to be future performance? Every team in MLB passed on the opportunity to pick him up. That quite telling of how teams see his value and we will get an even better valuation in free agency. Why did every team in MLB pass? They obviously don’t see Rosario in the same lights as his supporters here. IMO, they see a player who was fantastic for a relatively short period. In Rosario’s case the last ½ of 2017 and the 1st half of 2018 when he produced 44% of his career WAR in 23% of his career Games Played. His numbers are slightly below average for the other 77% of his career 2015 through the 1st half of 2017. ABs 1090 WAR 4.2 wRC+ 97 OPS 750 2nd half of 2017 through the 2018 trade deadline (7/31/18) ABs 664 WAR 5.0 wRC+ 135 OPS 895 8/1/18-present ABs 1076 WAR 2.2 wRC+ 97 OPS 761 I think a lot of fans want to keep Rosario because he was phenomenal for a short period of time. That would be fine if there was good reason to believe he will perform closer to the 23% of his career when he was great than the 77% when he was not but that is awfully optimistic. Apparently, every team in MLB thinks the same.

I am focused on production after the trade deadline in 2018 because I believe what occurred at that point is particularly relevant to Rosario's value. The league adjusted and Eddie has demonstrated he has no answer. Since that period of time. Kepler has been better offensively and considerably more valuable defensively. Since 7/31/2018 Rosario / Kepler HRs – 45 / 45 wRC+ 99 / 114 OPS - 774/889 wOBA 321/342 SLG – 477/479 RBI – 164/130 Kepler is better in every category with the exception of RBIs. Kepler takes better ABs. Kepler does not throw to the wrong base. Kepler does not make stupid base running mistakes. Therefore, people are not frustrated with Kepler like many of us are with Rosario. I thought it went without saying that Kepler's considerably higher WAR was a product of defensive contribution. That was meant as just one factor why some of us are more satisfied with Kepler vs Rosario.

The criticism of Rosario is recent. Rosario was truly great for a half season but he has been mediocre at best since the 1st half of 2018. His horrid plate discipline, base running errors, and defensive mistakes make him a target for criticism. Kepler has none of these issues and his offensive numbers are better than Rosario's over the past couple of seasons. Kepler is a more complete player and his WAR is more than double Rosario's WAR over the past two seasons. This is why Kepler is not criticized IMO.

Eddie probably was the best twins OFer over the past 5 years. Unfortunately, I don’t think that prospective accurately portrays present value. He produced 3.5 WAR the first half of 2018. He was fantastic during that stretch. Then, the league adjusted and Eddie has not been able to adapt to the changes opposing pitchers have made in how they pitch Eddie. Since then (7/31/18-Presennt) he has produced 2.1 WAR. Since the 2018 trade deadline Rosario has a wRC+ of 99. Kepler, Buxton, and even Cave all have a higher wRC+ War since 7/31/18 Max Kepler --- 6.3 Nelson Cruz --- 6.2 Jorge Polanco --- 5.7 Byron Buxton --- 3.9 Mitch Garver --- 3.8 Miguel Sano --- 3.4 Luis Arraez --- 2.8 Jake Cave --- 2.3 Eddie Rosario --- 2.1 Marwin Gonzalez --- 1.6 Streamer projects 1.3 WAR for 2021. His OPS since the 2018 deadline is 774. Decent but not great. I would like to think all 3 of our top OF prospects are capable of at least matching Rosario performance over the past couple years in their first year. Perhaps not in terms of HRs but wRC+ and WAR. The $10M made available could very well be the difference in resigning Odorizzi or landing Walker / Kluber etc. This approach has the highest probability of improving the team and that's why Rosario was DFAed.

Link? I would like to see what they rated. I also would not base much on 60 games. Take a look at 2019 or 2018-2019. In our last full season (2019) Rosario was 11th in WAR and that's just among position players. We also had several 7 pitchers with higher WAR. So, in the last full season he was the 18th most valuable Twin, at least where WAR is the measure.

Using 2019-2020 and 500 PAs - Rosario ranked 29th in wRC+ among players categorized as LFers by Fan Graphs. Some of those guys are not full-time LFers. Regardless, I would hope we can improve on that performance in 2021 and beyond.

Great news! La Velle Neal posts Saints to become Twins AAA affiliate. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/twins-triple-a-st-paul-saints-double-a-wichita-wind-surge.html

Great post Doc. I was looking for the "double like" button. The Dodgers have exercised patience and in doing so put a great product on the field for several years before winning a WS. They are also positioned to be great for the foreseeable future. It would sure be nice to not to go through stretches of 90-100 loss seasons. The Dodgers did not trade away any top prospects until Mookie Betts which is as about a sure thing as you can get. Take a look at how they developed this roster and you find 3 position players that would probably result in posts here accusing the FO of dumpster diving. I am referring to Turner, Muncy and Taylor. The other top position players before Betts arrival were home grown. Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, and most recently Will Smith. Of course, they have Gavin Lux waiting in the wings. They have not produced quite as many pitchers as Cleveland but they have been much better than us. Kershaw and Buehler are elite. May and Gonsolin look like he is going to be quite good too. May was a 3rd rounder and Gonsolin was a 9th rounder. Urias was an international draft at $450K. Not cheap but not a big dollar guy either. This is how you build a consistent winner. The twins can't afford to keep players like Kershaw and then pay for Betts while way over spending for Jansen. However, we would have a great team if we drafted, developed, and found a few under valued players like the Dodgers have over the last several years.

The failure rate / production of top free agent RPs has been extremely high and the market is going to adjust.

Remember Phil Hughes. The extended him long before it was necessary and those dollars could have been invested much more productively elsewhere.

I look back at how much Gonzalez played and I hope they don't go cheap on the utility role. Someone like Profar or maybe even La Stella would be great. Is Pillar really an upgrade over the younger player in Cave who still might have some upside? Caves career OPS is 65 pts higher. My preference would be Rooker as opening day starter and Kirilloff / Larnach compete to push Rooker to DH / 1B

Love Maeda but extending a SP turning 35 at the end of their contract is a horrible idea. Maybe if they had Kershaw / Verlander or Scherzer but Maeda does not fit in that group.

I would do this in a heartbeat but why would Buxton accept. The only way he does not get more than $10M/year is if he has an injury that keeps him out for an extended period. He gets one guaranteed year at $10M which could end up being an absolute bargain. The $33M would have to be guaranteed for there to be any chance he accepts, IMO. For me, a piece factor in extending Buxton is how the FO sees the probability of Lewis sticking at SS. I guess he could end up at 3B but I would think his next greatest value would be CF.

I am not a huge Sano fan and he struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, so did many other good players. In the last full season (2019) Sano had a 923 OPS and a wRC+ of 137. He hit a HR ever 12.9 ABs. Rosario’s highest OPS & wRC+ for a season is 836 / 117. In 2019, had an OPS of 800 and a wRC+ of 103 in 2019. He hit a HR every 18.4 ABs. Sano showed in 2019 he was able to adapt to the adjustments the league made in pitching him. He ranked 68th out of 273 players with 300+ ABs in plate discipline which was the best on the team. Rosario’s plate discipline was not only the worst on the ream, he was 268th. He was just as bad in 2020. Only 8 players with 150+ ABs had worse plate discipline. I don’t know for sure Sano will bounce back when we back to normal or closer to normal but at least he has demonstrated the desire an ability to adjust to the league. Eddie continues to demonstrate he is unwilling or unable to adjust to the league and he is very unlikely to be above average without better plate discipline.

I agree if he can be signed to a team friendly deal. However, I don't see that coming together before the arbitration deadline. If it comes down to Rooker / Kirilloff or Larnach + $10M allocated to a free agent vs resigning Rosario, the team is better of with one of the prospects or even Cave and $10M allocated to a free agent, IMO. It's also possible the FO will gamble that Covid vaccines will be widely distributed by spring and we will have a normal season. It seems unlikely they would make that assumption but the equation would change in that case.

I like Seth’s plan. It has by far the greatest probability of being executed. Profar is a great fit. His plan also facilitates bringing on Kirilloff and/or Larnach which has great value IMO. I might be inclined to invest the Brad Hand money elsewhere. I think he is a very good RP but it’s hard to ignore the failure rate among high-end free agent RPs. Between 2017-2018 there were 21 free Agent RPs signed to contracts with an AAV of over $7.5M. Their combined WAR for the past 3 years is 7.5. The two highest in terms of Fwar were Andrew Cashner (2.5) and Zach Britton (2.4) All of the others combined produced an average of .14 Fwar. It’s really hard to look at that recent history and not believe those funds would likely be used more productively elsewhere. Nick’s plan would be great if you could pull it off. However, it is extremely hard to imagine a World Series team trading a top of the rotation starter with 3 years of team control. They would require an absolute haul. Probably a Chris Sale type haul. Moncada was a better prospect than Kirilloff and the White Sox got Michael Kopech in that deal. Our equivalent would be Balazovic or Duran and they are not even close in terms of prospect rating. Of course, the Sox got a couple other prospect in this deal as well. Luis Alexander has a FV of 40, same as Rooker. I don’t think Snell is equivalent to Sale but I would not be surprised if the Rays asking price was similar. John’s plan centered around getting Bauer places too much importance on one guy for my liking and I agree with Nick and Seth that he has been good more often than great. Also, any plan based on signing the only high-end starter on the market should include a plan B even if you are the Yankees or Dodgers. In the past 20 years, these pitchers have gone to teams in the top 7-8 in revenue almost exclusively. The only exception has been the Nationals and the Nationals could pay for Bauer twice with the revenue advantage they have over the Twins.

He is worth a lot more in trade with 2 years of control vs 1 so it makes perfect sense they would test his willingness to extend before the last year of his contract. In addition, some players are going to be less inclined the closer they get to free agency. Having said this ... trading him for an established player(s) is not easy. Anyone interested in trading for him would do so because they are in win now mode. What team is giving up front line pitching when they are in that mode? I don't see us trading for position players. We have a plethora of outfield talent. Replacing any of the infielders would not be enough of an upgrade to make it a net gain losing Buxton in CF.

It would be interesting to see a comparison of fastball / breaking ball percentages thrown. It seemed to me opposing pitchers threw more breaking balls, especially when ahead in the count. IMO, the league adjusted to the Twins aggression. There were 203 players with 150 or more ABs in 2020. We had six players with 150+ ABs. Here is how they ranked for swinging at pitches outside the zone. 60-Kepler 66-Polanco 103-Gonzalez 111-Sano 142-Cruz 195-Rosario