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Major League Ready

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  1. Major League Ready
    Baez is in his final year and his wRC+ for 2020 was 57. Doubt he would cost the farm but I still don't see the point. His career wRC+ is 101. Polanco is a career 104 wRC+. In their last full year (2019) Baez Wrc+ was 114 and Polanco 119.
  2. Major League Ready
    For a player with one year of control? Story is a FA after next year. The last thing we need to do is give up top SP prospects for a guy with one year of control no matter how good the guy with one year of control happens to be. I would assume the Twins would much prefer Lewis end up as the every day SS and hopefully in the not too distant future. Although it seems highly unlikely he is promoted to the ML level until he proves himself for more than 22 games in the AZ fall league. Polanco is probably a trade asset once Lewis is established.
  3. Major League Ready
    Jeffers was called upon because of injury. That’s an entirely different scenario than opting to use a prospect from the start of the season. In this case, they would actually be making room for Lewis. In addition, Jeffers had also proven to be ready defensively that’s not what we are hearing about Lewis. Jeffers also had an Ops+ of 151 at AA, Lewis 88. Lewis was promoted to AA in spite of regressing at A+ from 2018 to 2019. I don’t see Jeffers situation as remotely parallel to Lewis. It would be aggressive to promote him without a need caused by injury if he If he kills AA for a half-season. Promoting because he had 22 good games in the AFL is reckless.
  4. Major League Ready
    I just don't know what to use for a budget. It seems unlikely teams will assume fans will be back. Will the players agree to a reduction in salary based on attendance levels? Is it possible that negotiation takes place immediately following the WS. If so, I would expect next to nothing happening until an agreement is reached. Here is what I expect .... Twins will non-tender Rosario. Rooker will be in the OF. He is the most established in terms of Milb success. He had 65 games at AAA with a 933 OPS. Kirilloff has 94 games at AA and had a mediocre year in 2019. His OPS was 756. Kirilloff and/or Larnach will not start the season at the MLB level but will be promoted during the 2021 season. Lewis also will not start the season with the MLB club. He only has 33 games at the AA level and his OPS was only 649 at AA. Yes, he was great in the AZ fall league but that's a SS of 22 games. Sano will be with the Twins to start the season. They are not going to sell low on him. The biggest expenditure will be a FA starting pitcher. There will be a couple RPs signed. A utility player will be signed as a FA. However, I would not be shocked if they decided to give Gordon and/or Blankenhorn a shot. I just think there will be some good opportunities to sign this type of players this year.
  5. Major League Ready
    If you are looking to provide proof of which acquisitions are the most impactful, looking at the top 3 in terms of inning pitched is not a great data set. I took a look at the acquisition method for the top 20 SPs by war for the last three years. I separated the acquisition method as follows. Drafted Trade while still a prospect Free Agents Trades for established SPS 2019 4-Trade while still a prospect 7-Drafted (1 international) 6-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS 2018 8-Trade while still a prospect 8-Drafted (1 international) 2-Free Agents - One came from Japan 2-Trades for established SPS 2017 2-Trade while still a prospect 11-Drafted 4-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS Total 2017-19 14 (23%) - Trade while still a prospect 26 (43%) - Drafted 13 (22%) - Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 08 (13%) - Trades for established SPS 66% were drafted or acquired by trade before they became established. Traded before becoming established is defined as acquired with with no MLB experience or never having a year with over 1 WAR.
  6. Major League Ready
    They made a very lopsided trade to get Glasnow. They traded Chris Archer with 2 years of Control for Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Archer had 2 years of below league average performance. Glasnow has been very good and they have 3 more years of control. Meadows was great last year but hurt this year. They have 4 more years of control with him. They have always been willing to give up good players with 1-2 years of control for players with 4-5 years of control and/or prospects. They have always been great at drafting and developing SPs. They have also done a great job with other teams cast-offs. They got Nick Anderson from us as well as Curtiss (tonight's opener) and Slegers from us, all of whom we DFAd.
  7. Major League Ready
    I have wondered about other sources of revenue looking at Forbes estimate for the Twins. They estimated $300M for 2019 and I was a little surprised. Even if they derive 45% of revenue from gate related income, that leaves $165M and their Local + National TV revenue is under $100M. What's the source of the other $65M? It does not seem to me like Forbes is underestimating revenue.
  8. Major League Ready
    I am not sure on most of the answers but well done in terms of outlining the questions. I will say that I agree with DC Twin in the primary investment being made in starting pitching. There could be some very good deals out there next year for utility players. There are going to be some non-tenders that can be signed relatively cheap. I think the players and league should be back at the bargaining table as soon as the WS ends. They need to come up with something other than 100% compensation if fans are not present. I could be wrong but it would seem logical that teams are going to be very conservative this off-season if an agreement for salary relief does not take place. Maybe teams will be confident we will be back to normal next year but I doubt it.
  9. Major League Ready
    Looks about right. I would add $6M to Maeda and $5M to fill with pre-arb players gets us to $90M. The question is what will they be willing to spend given the revenue uncertainty. Then, what should the priority for spending be with whatever dollars are available. Another SP would be at the top of my list and I don't think we can adequately fill Marwin and Adrianza from within. I would also really like to resign Cruz if he can be signed to a deal similar to his last contract where we have a 2nd year option. BP needs some help too.
  10. Major League Ready
    We may not be as far off on the revenue and expense as I thought. My assumption for average profit per team is $40M/year or 1.2B for the 30 teams collectively. This substantially changes how long it will take to recoup losses. My source is Forbes. (see link) You are using a $2B number for profits. What is your source? I would change my stance if there was credible information the teams are making an average of $66M per team. https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall
  11. Major League Ready
    Their losses are not measured in revenue. Income is the net of revenue and expenses. You also completely butchered the revenue estimate. The 55% might be right but even if it's 60%, they made 60% on 37% of the normal number of games. Even at 60% that equates to 22% of normal revenue. According to Forbes, the average in per team has been around $40M in net profit and the Twins have been considerably below that number. Therefore 4 years profit would be $160M per team or 4.8 Billion unless you also take into account that they also did not earn the normal $40M they would have earned. When I ran the numbers I came up with a number around $100M per team but obviously I don't perfect information. The league claims the number is higher. Regardless, teams are going to adjust their spending. THAT's the POINT. We can bitch that Billionaires should just take it in the shorts and players making hundreds of millions deserve every dime all we want but they are going to adjust spending as would any business no matter how successful that business has been in the past.
  12. Major League Ready
    What you have done for the most part here is change when the money is paid. While cash flow is a consideration, it’s not the primary driver. Avoiding another $100M+ loss is goal #1. Goal #2 is to recoup some of the gigantic losses teams suffered in 2020. Just changing the cash flow won't accomplish this goal. I would expect teams to cut payroll for the next 3-4 years, especially small and mid-market teams. The Twins lost the rough equivalent of 4-5 years of income this year. Would you spending habits change for a period of time if you lost 5 years income? I could be wrong but I don't think owners are going to just absorb these huge losses and they are going to take measures to protect their clubs from similar losses next year. For example, Rooker @ 600K has a high probability of getting the nod vs Rosario at $10M given what happened this year and the uncertainty of next year. I would hope the players and owners will negotiate a salary structure for next year that takes into account attendance. They should begin the moment the WS concludes. That way they can get in 162 games which will be better for players than getting 100% of 37% (60 games).
  13. Major League Ready
    I am not puzzled by Max's low BA. It's a lot harder to get hits when you constantly hit into 4 infielders on one side of the diamond. Of course, you addressed the cure. A few hard bunts down the 3rd base line would take teams out of the shift or at least take one less guy away from the right side. A lot of players had really bad years with the chaos of Covid. I want to see Max in 2021. It makes sense to keep him here while we audition Rooker / Kirilloff and Larnach. He would still have 3 years of a team friendly deal. If he rebounds to somewhere near 2019 numbers he is a great team asset or trade asset going forward.
  14. Major League Ready
    Hendricks was waived three times and traded twice before he became an impact player so the comparison makes no sense. On the other hand, Tampa's BP has benefited greatly from out cast-offs. I would sure would have liked to have Nick Anderson this year plus 4 more years of team control.
  15. Major League Ready
    There are varying degrees of difficulty. The 1B is still present when a RH bunts to beat the shift. He can field the ball with the pitcher covering. Extreme shifts against a LH hitter like we see with Kepler have no defenders on the left side. The degree of difficult is far lower than a RH hitter. It’s also FAR easier than bunting for a hit against a traditional defense. The direction does not need to be nearly as good and the ball does need to be deadend. As a matter of fact, the harder the better. Learning to bunt for hits against ML pitching and a traditional defense is not so easy. Learning to guide the ball somewhere within 25 ft of 3rd base with a hard bunt not nearly as tough. If considered in terms of a single AB, it’s not that big a deal. However, in the case of LH hitters who face extreme shifts, forcing opponents to abndoned the shift will result in better results across literally thousands of ABs. If I were LH hitter who faces exremes shifts I would not be willing to accept the imp[act of shifts on my career. I would be working very hard in practice and during the off season to learn to bunt hard toward 3B and beat the shift. I would hope that any player with the skills of a ML player could learn this skill within a reasonable amount of time. Sounds like a great spring training activity to me.
  16. Major League Ready
    Apparently, the new call is that stats lie or don't matter, at least if you don't like what they reveal. Going back to 7/1/18 to give the rough equivalent of two seasons given the shortened season this year, Rosario's WAR is 2.2. Kepler's is 7. He was in the bottom 5% this year in terms of chase rate. Rosario ranks 35th in OPS among corner outfielders this year. One spot behind Robbie Grossman. I disagree he has greatly corrected his chasing problem. I would say his approach has gone from horrid to very bad. The stats would suggest whatever improvement he has made has done little to improve his OPS. I would prefer to give the job to Rooker and allocate the money to starting pitching or a utility player.
  17. Major League Ready
    I did not assemble the data. It came from Fangraphs.
  18. Major League Ready
    I used players with 120 ABs to gather a larger sample size. If you prefer using 180 Abs he was 152nd out out of 157.
  19. Major League Ready
    Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.
  20. Major League Ready
    Rod Carew would have hit 900 against the shifts they put on Kepler. It drives me crazy that Kepler has not done anything about it and twins management should have insisted he learn how to bunt adequately to nullify this shift. The shift the put on him obviously takes away hits. It would appear Kepler and the team have accepted teams taking away hits for the rest of his career because that's what will happen if Kepler does not learn to bunt. A little slap bunt would be even more effective because it would go into left field. If he used a hitting motion for a slap bunt he could even use it with 2 strikes. Pull hitters should be working on this stuff in MiLB. Allowing others teams to take this advantage is incredibly stupid. Our organization should be working on this with current prospects to gain an advantage over the rest of the league. Our prospects that cant adapt to using the entire field should be required to learn how to bunt or slap bunt adequately enough to beat a shift.
  21. Major League Ready
    Not that I don't agree but the real problem was scoring 1 run per game. I think their biggest need next year is better plate discipline. Not just in terms of swinging outside the zone but laying off tough pitches when they are ahead in the count. It appeared to me opposing pitchers knew our guys would be aggressive when ahead in the count. They threw tough breaking balls or just did not give up much of the plate even when ahead. Our guys fouled off the pitches to even the count or put the ball in play with weak contact. At least that's what it seemed like to me. I don't have the stats to back it up.
  22. Major League Ready
    The chances are pretty good they resign Cruz unless one of the big market teams are willing to give him a 2 year deal. I also don't believe the Twins are as inclined to move Sano to DH as some posters here. The team is not likely to start the season with Kirilloff on the ML roster which makes it very easy to find a spot for Rooker who was considered more ready for the majors. Starting Kirilloff at AAA is trhe safest approach. It gives them the opportunity to adjust their roster after a couple months if needed and it does not burn a year of control on a player who will likely be a core player going forward. Rosario is gone. Rooker is in LF to start the season with Cave as the 4th OFer. The next moves will be addressed after Kirilloff or Larnarch establish they are ready by sustaining a high level of play at AAA. What they need is a good solution for a utility infielder and another quality SP.
  23. Major League Ready
    It was widely reported Wheeler wanted to be in Philly and they were willing to top $ for him. So, unless we paid stupid money we were not getting him. Let's also keep in mind Philly's incremental revenue would pay for Wheeler's salary (TWICE) This is only a fumble if you ignore the fact Wheeler wanted to be on in the NE or you expect our team to outbid a team with considerably more revenue. You are also ignoring that we signed Maeda and Donaldson with the available payroll dollars. Maeda was a little better than Wheeler so how is this a fumble?
  24. Major League Ready
    We can't look at next year based on past history. Never in the past history of the league has every team lost $100M or more. Teams would be cutting payroll, especially small and mid-market teams even if they expected a return to normal next year. As Chief points out, there is still great uncertainty about attendance next year. If, and it's a big IF, the teams and players reached a reasonable agreement that adjusts player salary based on attendance, we could play 162 games. Players would make between two-thirds and full salary based on attendance. However, it's hard to believe the players will be willing to adjust their salary based on the hard line they took last year after both sides agreed the payout would have to be adjusted if fans were not present. Let's hope they have they start working on an agreement based on attendance as soon as the WS is over. That would be in the best interest of a lot of players, teams and the fans because I would expect the teams to severely roll back spending if an agreement to adjust salary based on attendance related to Covid is not reached.
  25. Major League Ready
    Eddie is a very low probability. Rooker / Cave platoon until Kirilloff or Larnach push their way on to the roster. Hopefully, Rooker makes that very difficult. Perhaps they trade Cave at that point. Time to let go Gonzalez and Adrianza. They should be able to find a FA utility player and perhaps give Blankenhorn a shot. Resign May. If we don't tender a contract to Rosario, we have $70M coming off the books not counting May. We can afford to keep him. Make a hard run at Bauer. The $70M will be offset by increases of roughly $15M between Sanos increase and arbitration raises. I also assume almost ever team will cut payroll this year because of Covid related loses. However, the Twins could probably still afford Bauer
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