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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Didn't they also say they used previous year's revenue back when they floated the 50% premise? BTW ... 2018 payroll was 51.% of 2017 revenue.
  2. Major League Ready
    I appreciate you using a trusted source. However, we should include the level of profitability (16M) report by Forbes. The norm is to use generalizations about what percentage of payroll the team can spend which is a poor practice. Profitability is not only a better measure of spending capacity, it’s an indicator of willingness to spend. The Twins were far below league average in terms of profitability. In other words, they were more willing to spend and take less profit. Yes, their revenue increased in 2019. Given the increase in spending, it would appear that once again they are willing to spend a greater portion of their gross margin that almost any other team.
  3. Major League Ready
    Actually, the trade between LA and Boston ended up being independent of the Twins. The value of their trade for the most part will be determined this year given Betts is a FA at the end of the year. Of course, it is possible Price pitches well for 3 years and contributes to LA winning a world series. The Dodgers have had a long world series drought than the Twins. I would assume that weighed heavily on their decision to give up a couple good players for a rental. The trade with the Twins could take a few years to grade. LA gave up a player that was not particularly important to their success for a guy who could be an impact player. This could be a huge win for them with little possibility of the trade ever having a significant negative impact for the Dodgers. Plus, they get a decent draft choice.
  4. Major League Ready
    Has the low level prospects mentioned by MLB trade rumors been identified? Is this a Player to be named later?
  5. Major League Ready
    Are you complaining that we are not the very best team in all of baseball? I sure had a lot more fun last year watching 100 wins vs 100 losses. Are you in any way surprised that a team with roughly $400M more in revenue than the Twins signed the most expensive free agent SP in the history of the game. I gotta tell ya ... I am going to focus on watching a very good team for the next several years. There is nothing anyone can do about the fact that there are a handful of team with a huge revenue advantage.
  6. Major League Ready
    I bet they would still do it if Boston said OK. This could be maneuvering. It puts even more pressure on Boston now that the option of accepting as is appears to be off the table.
  7. Major League Ready
    I think stacked is a little strong. They have a fair number of decent pitchers. It's interesting to look at how that staff was acquired when evaluating the Bailey acquisition. Bailey would be the highest paid pitcher among those players who contributed the most last year in terms of WAR. Hendricks – 3.8 WAR / 1 yr5.3M Montas – 3.0 WAR / pre-arb / Acquired with no ML service time. Anderson – 2.0 WAR / Acquired as a FA @ 1/5M Fiers – 1.7 WAR / Acquired as a F/A @ 2/14M Bassit – 2.1 WAR / 2.25M / Bassit was the type of trade many here would absolutely despise. The A’s traded an established player (Smardzija) and Michael Yona for Bassit and Semien when Semien had 324 ML PAs. That’s how you move the needle for several years. They built their staff with the type of moves that many here would ridicule and label dumpster diving.
  8. Major League Ready
    Actually, it makes more sense that Boston would be calling given they are the team receiving the return for Maeda. If LA is doing the calling they then need to go to Boston to determine if a given player would fly. That is a very convoluted and exceptionally inefficient approach. They know the Dodgers are willing to include Maeda so why would be a problem for them to approach teams asking them to be the 3rd team and what would they give for Maeda? The only other way I see this working is a 3-way call with teams Boston targets for specific prospects.
  9. Major League Ready
    After reading through 100 posts, I was thinking the same thing. I would add that using this capital for a top of the rotation guy is a great idea. Unfortunately, the teams that have those guys have playoff aspirations and they are not trading them. I find it hard to be bad because we did not get a player that's not available. I won't be mad until such a player is traded, proving there was actually such a player available.
  10. Major League Ready
    I doubt they would let a 40 man spot stand in the way. If nothing else they would just drag out the official signing until Hill can be put on the IL. The big question is how long will it be before he can contribute. Go ahead and give him a guaranteed contract but get an option year or two in the process.
  11. Major League Ready
    My memory might be failing me but I thought Boston had made a nice offer. We wanted the moon and they dropped out is how I recall it.
  12. Major League Ready
    I think this is stretching reality. We have 2 very good OFers (Kepler & Buxton) and a good OFer (Rosario) who will be gone by 2022 for sure and perhaps next year. Cave is a good back-up and could even take the Escobar path and grown into an above average started but how knows. Is Wade a player anyone here wants as an everyday OFer? Go ahead and trade him but he is not bringing anything that resembles what we need in a SP. That leaves us with Larnach, Kirilloff, Rooker, Raley and Lewis. Lewis would be more valuable as a SS given that is a problem area right now. Let's hope Lewis becomes our SS and Polanco moves to 2B. Arreaz can become a utility player or perhaps he could be traded. Larnach and Kirilloff are at least a year away unless they really kill it the 1st half of 2020. I think Kirilloff is actually our 1B replacement and Sano goes to DH / 1B / 3B once Cruz is gone. Raley and Rooker are close. If either one or booth of them can bring some pitching ... Great! I just don't see our outfield situation blocking anyone with perhaps the exception of Rooker and Raley.
  13. Major League Ready
    He had 13.9 fWAR in 5 years with the Mets. It seems a stretch to say trading him was the Twins downfall. Holding out too long with other trade partners and not getting a better return was the real error IMO. Johan was great while he was here. He produced 31.6 fWAR for the Twins. Trading him right before he declined should have been a good move. They just screwed up in terms of what they got back.
  14. Major League Ready
    You can't be blocked until you have made a good case for being promoted. Lewis would have to have to be good for all of 2020 to be considered a candidate for 2021. KIrilloff is a bit closer but he needs to show an extended period of the type of performance he had in A/A+ before he earns a shot. So, why are we worried about this not. How did signing Donaldson become a problem? Seems like we are trying to find failure in success.
  15. Major League Ready
    10 players from the 26 man will be free agents after this season. Jake Odorizzi Nelson Cruz Marwin Gonzalez Homer Bailey Romo Alex Avilia Rich Hill Tyler Clippard Trevor May Ehire Adrianza
  16. Major League Ready
    Sounds about right but we need to replace 10 players at the end of 2020. That's not feasible from within. It would appear they will need to use free agency to fill some holes.
  17. Major League Ready
    That must make the Cruz signing an F because he was 38 when they signed him. Power ages well. Donaldson was a lot better risk than RYU IMO. I like the Avila signing too. Darn good back-up and he takes quality ABs. Resigning Castro would have been fine too but I bet he was holding out for a multi year deal and we should have a prospect ready to step into that role next year.
  18. Major League Ready
    Obviously a SSS with only 28 IP 1.59 ERA and a 2.91 FIP in 2019. I would be quite unreasonable to expect 147 innings with the same ERA but how nice would it be if his ERA was equivalent to his FIP from last year? Oh happy day!
  19. Major League Ready
    Rooker is the one most likely to be impacted by the Donaldson acquisition. He would have gotten a shot at some point this year if Sano was not moving to 1B. Kirilloff is probably still a year away. It would not be shocking if he tore up AA the 1st half of the season and that would have been more likely to get him promoted had Sano not moved to 1B. However, I still see him as the most likely 1B at some point in 2021 and doubt his timetable has changed much. Larnach is probably not impacted at all. He is the most likely Rosario replacement. The timing of his appearance at the ML level will be a product of his development as well as Rosario's performance.
  20. Major League Ready
    He was sensational the 1st half of 2018 and horrible the 2nd half. 1st half vs 2nd half stats are as follows. OPS 930 / 642 wRC+ 149 / 70 Ave 315 / 254 Swinging outside the zone 39/47.5 War 3.3 / .1 I would guess that he will be here in 2021 if he performs similarly to 2019 in 2020. I would think one of the prospects will push him to a bench role during 2021 or to be traded if he does not improve upon 2019 in 2020. Obviously, if he makes it on to the 2021 team there is always the possibility the super Eddie we saw in the first half of 2018 could reappear. I don't see them getting rid of him until one of the prospects forces the issue.
  21. Major League Ready
    Wouldn’t the best comparison be the closest profile available? In this case that would be MLB teams with the most similar revenue. The top row are teams closest in revenue to the Twins. The 2nd row is the next wave up with the exception of Detroit. They are an anomaly among all MLB teams in terms of spending over the past decade. Therefore, I did not include them but I guess you could say they are an example that suggests it could be done. Detroit had a run of reasonable success from 2011-2014 as their payroll ran up. Eventually it reached 198M in 2015. They lost $35M and produced 74 wins, fired their leadership and blew up the roster. The accelerated spending did not yield greater success. It led to a disaster. Over the 5 year period of 2015-2019 they won an average of 67 games. The five teams closest to the Twins in revenue averaged $96M in payroll and the average peak for payroll was $126M. The five closest teams over the decade were my best guess. None of those teams came anywhere near $160M much less $180M. Actually, the Twins 2020 payroll will be the highest of the past decade for the teams most similar revenue. All of these teams had higher revenue in 2018 but the twins due have the capacity to equal or even surpass the closest 5-6 teams. Also, I did not include 2020 because the available tools don’t have all of the 2020 information.
  22. Major League Ready
    I am inclined to take your point of view. I was responding to someone who said "Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization". I believe Kirilloff's primary position will be 1B with Sano moving to DH at some point in 2021. However, it seems most people are more inclined to see him as a corner OFer. May be my take is off but I see Larnach taking over LF in 2021 and Kirilloff playing primarily at 1B but will provide the flexibility of playing in the OF.
  23. Major League Ready
    Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative? I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.
  24. Major League Ready
    There has been quite a bit of player movement the last few years by several teams focused on payroll management. Take a look at ther link below. Colorado had never had $100M payroll until 2017 when it was $106. In 2018 it climber to $136M and they have a record payroll of $147M this year. If you think the Twins are cheap ... Colorado has more revenue thanks to great attendance and they had never broken $100M in payroll until 2017. 2018 was their best season in a decade and then they crashed to 71 wins last season. I suspect revenue will be down unless they are smokin hot the first couple of months. It would appear they are looking for payroll relief and probably also fear Arenado opts out and they get nothing. Their SPs are very low cost. From a business perspective it makes more sense to hope for a big rebound. I would think they will get at least as good of a return if they wait for the deadline, wouldn't you? Freeland is very interesting. That could be a great acquisition but Colorado would be very foolish to trade him now. They have 4 years of control remaining. I love the idea if he could be acquired at a depressed price right now. High risk but also high ceiling.
  25. Major League Ready
    I should have elaborated. My thought is this will make for some interesting maneuvering both in terms of how they are filled, when they are filled and how that works out for managing the 40 man. Here is my guess as to how they are filled. Jake Odorizzi – Hopefully does well and is resigned Nelson Cruz – Sano moves from 1B to DH / Kirilloff takes 1B Marwin Gonzalez – Internally but who IDK? There are a few possibilities. Homer Bailey - ??? Romo – Replaced internally Alex Avilia – Replaced by Jeffers Rich Hill - ??? Let’s hope at least one of Bailey / Hill is replaced internally. Tyler Clippard – Replaced Internally or I could see signing a LH RP next year.
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