Major League Ready

They won't be in any hurry to trade Arraez. * He is under team control through 2025. * Who knows what his ceiling might be. He could be the next Tony Gwynn. * Lewis staying at SS is not a given. He could CF or a utility man. * Arraez is quite valuable in a utility role. Now, if someone offers a haul for Arraez it could make sense. Who is to say Polanco won't be the one to be traded. Again, no hurry. It does not make sense to trade Arraez or Polanco soon unless the haul can't be denied. It makes more sense to wait and see how Lewis and even Javier perform this year. How great would it be if Javier busted out this year?

Having the AAA team a 1/2 hour away provides a great opportunity to use the AAA team as an extended bench. Spend whatever is left in the budget on Cruz and/or pitching.

Nope. I just looked in my crystal ball. Lewis is going have an OPS around 1000 in the minors and wow the baseball world with his improvement at SS. He is our starting SS next year. BTW ... Kirilloff comes up the 1st of June and wins rookie of the year. While I am at it... Canterino and Sands are so good that we have a hard time finding enough innings for them / Balazovic and Duran who are also killing it at AAA. Might as well dream big!

Why do so many fans think any FO can just sign a guy if that’s what they want to do? Cruz is not signing until the DH for both leagues is completely dead. Constructing a roster is also a very fluid. I am sure they have been working multiple scenarios. The available budget and priorities change with every move or failure to sign someone they covet. Saying why don’t they just sign him is grossly simplistic take. Rooker had a 933 OPS at AAA. He has performed better and at a higher level than any of our other prospects. He also performed in his brief stint at the ML level. Fans like shiny objects. If he had been a top pick posters here would be lobbying for him. He has earned his shot. How many people saw Arais getting here as soon as he did and performing as well as he has performed? Signing a LF when you have 3 top prospects needing an opportunity would be exceptionally poor roster management IMO. I have no idea what they will do specifically but it would make sense they are going to use LF to give multiple guys an opportunity.

Sometimes fans are enamored with individuals. You can't put 1/3 of your payroll into a couple of players. The risk of putting all your eggs in one or two baskets is apparently not understood. Posters also seem to ignore how often these “proven” free agents fail. High end RPs have failed at a staggering rate yet there is still angst with the FO for not signing them. I have posted the results of top free agent SPs in the past. Their results are far from great. I have posted the hard facts a couple times. I am not going to do it again because that kind of fact gets ignored. How about top International prospects? The failure rate there is incredible. I have put together lists from a couple years. Based on results, I would be very hard pressed to sign someone for more than $1.5M. Signing 3 or 4 guys for an average of $1M is far more likely to yield results than a $3-4M player. Yet, many people complain we don’t sign the most expensive guys without having any evidence signing those guys is a good strategy. I would add Philly to your example. They have $100M more than the Twins in revenue so they can spend in ways the Twins can not but they went and signed Harper / Arieta / Wheeler / Gregerius and were a 500 team. Add to that they traded away Sixto Sanchez to have Realmuto for two years. Now, contrast the Dodgers approach since they replaced their front office. Night and day difference in approach and results.

Good question. I would think teams will be inclined to get a look at these players at AAA for at least a month or two. However, revenue is going to be down and that could initiate some risk taking on prospects.

He could be "nearly as valuable" as a CFer if he does not stick at SS.

Josh Donaldson doesn't count or do you think a a team with below average revenue can be successful putting a high percentage of budget in a couple players? Philly / LA Angels and Colorado are good examples of how this strategy does not work. Of course both of them have enough incremental revenue over the twins to sign 3 such players and they still failed. When other teams can afford at least 1.5X our payroll, it is a given that the team with 2/3 the payroll capacity get much better production per $ spent. This is not a squishy premise. It's an absolute many fans apparently don't understand. The moves that really move the needle are Max Muncy / Justin Turner type acquisitions that some here call dumpster diving. Those moves provide the payroll room to afford expensive free agents or extensions. The smaller the budget, the more essential the need to get production for less (ie Tampa Bay & Oakland)

Let’s look at 2019 production rank on the 2019 team in the order you mentioned. Gonzales – 9th among position players in WAR / 14th in OPS. Rosario – 11th in WAR / 9th in OPS Adrianza – 13th in WAR / 13th in OPS Cruz – 2nd in WAR / 1st in OPS Gonzales / Rosario are exactly the type of players that should be moved if you want to get better. I sure hope we can come up with a better performing utility guy for what Gonzales and probably have enough left over to sign Clippard. No brainer. Eddie Rosario is an average MLB player. Average players don’t hurt but they don’t make a true contender. Kirilloff / Larnach & Rooker are all capable of delivery a higher wRC+ or OPS than Rosario has produced since the 2nd half of 2018. I would definitely take Kirilloff or even Rooker + whatever we get with the $10M saved over Rosario. Kirilloff + La Stella + Clippard or equivalent is far more valuable than Rosario which is why he is not here. Adrianza is a solid bench player but he can certainly be replaced and probably improved upon. Cruz is the only real difference maker. As I mentioned in the post that incensed you to the point of dropping the F bomb, we added Donaldson and Maeda since the 2019 team was so successful. With Donaldson and Maeda, the 2021 team certainly has the capacity to be as good or better. It’s also not over with Cruz. He could very well be here for 2021. You can't just ignore the Donaldson amd Maeda add. Adrianza and Gonzales are easily replaced and Rosario has not been a difference maker since the 2nd half of 2018. Could he return to that form. Perhaps, but he looks incapable of adapting. His approach is horrid and he is never going to be great without better plate discipline. If invested reasonably well, the money saved of Gonzales and Rosario will only add to the ceiling provided by that core from 2019. If they do resign Cruz and spend the money saved, the 2021 has a higher ceiling than the 2019 team.

We just signed Donaldson We have 3 good prospects that can play LF. We have Sano / Garver / Kirilloff for 1B There are a number of ways to better spend $20M plus whatever it takes in trade to get him. Plus, whatever problem(s) you solve are back again next year. A Bryant type move (rental) is a move you make when your one piece away and he is that piece. We are not one player away and Kris Bryant is down the list of players who would be a final piece for this team. Hard pass..

I have been asking myself the same questions. I thought they would resign Adrianza as the 11th man and that would leave lots of options for the 10th man. Seems to me the key is coming up with a back-up SS. Maybe they are thinking that is Gordon. Perhaps thy are thinking Gordon / Blankenhorn and resigning Cruz and a BP arm.

Good article, Nick. The problem with trying to figure out roster construction this year is that we have little idea which prospects made improvements and how much they improved. While not tested in normal games, I could see pitching prospects making big strides. What if they have a couple pitching prospects that made big strides and want to start rotating them in for a look relatively early in the season? It might not be the obvious (Duran / Balazovic). There has been some rumbling that Canterino has improved. Having our AAA team in St. Paul also adds a twist. For example, they could promote Celestino to AAA and have him available anytime Buxton is out for more than a game or two. They can also have Kirilloff / Larnach and Gordon on standby. So what if the FO is thinking they have prospects that will be ready to go in the first couple months? It stands to reason that the supply of good SS will create a buying opportunity. Semien and Gregorius are not much of an improvement defensively but they would provide depth at SS. I don't think we get hurt adding one of the three. They have Taylor Rogers / Tyler Duffey / Jorge Alcala / Cody Stashak / Dakota Chalmers / Caleb Thielbar and Hansel Robles. Not sure what they expect from Colina. I am thinking at least one more RP unless they had some break throughs last year that change the landscape.

I am with you with regards to which Ozuna do you get which is why I added the "depending on cost". If he gets paid based on huge production last year during a 60 game season, I am with you on there being room for considerable regret. However, isn't that the case with a lot of free agents. They tend to get paid based level achieved not a sustained level. BTW ... I am assuming his defensive liability will lead to a discounted value but we will see.

This is how you build a powerhouse. Draft and develop. Not a free agent among them. Tony Gonsolin - Round 9 Dustin May - Round 3 Julio Urias – International (450K Signing Bonus) Walker Buehler – 24th overall pick Clayton Kershaw – 7th overall pick On the position player side they developed Bellinger / Seager / Smith / Pederson Verdugo and pick-ed up Muncy / Singer for nothing and there is Justin Turner. The Dodger FO and the rest of the organization has done a phenomenal job and they are going to have a long run in contention.

He would not get "a greater sum over a longer commitment" if MLB GMs believed this was even remotely accurate. Rosario’s best OPS+ for a season was 117. That is one point better than Ozuna’s 3rd best season. Ozuna’s best OPS+ (2020) was 179 which was 3rd in all of MLB. He also produced an OPS+ of 143 in 2017 which was the same year as Rosario’s best (117). Rosario had a couple stretches where he was truly great but he has never done it for more than half a season. I seriously doubt the contracts they each get reflect that MLB teams think they are the same player. Depending on cost, it could make sense to go Ozuna instead of Cruz. He can help in LF until our prospects take over.

I am assuming the reference was to Robles. He signed about 3 weeks ago.

In 10 seconds of searching I found this information. https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office All of the Milb employees would take a modest amount of digging. Anyone with the proper database could estimate salary within +/- 10%. Given operating costs are roughly 1/3 of revenue, that provides an estimate with a variance of +/- 3.3% revenue. I am not certain but tax records are probably public information which would provide a very close estimate. It's alot easier to complain and cry conspiracy or you just don't understand how to compile the estimate. Either way, MLB profits are not the great mystery some would like to assert.

Nathan was great but they lost over 90 games each of the three seasons after Nathan left so resigning him was pretty irrelevant. It also made no sense for Nathan either given they lost 99 his last season with the team.

If my memory is correct, they got Berrios with the comp pick they got for Cuddy. If so, that was a pretty good result.

Height in a receiver has a very distinct advantage. NFL QBs throw if enough precision to put the ball in a zone where only the taller player can reach it. SS movement is much more about quickness and length does not promote quickness. Reach can’t be overcome with quickness in football. It can in baseball. I am assuming the draft philosophy is that these bigger but athletic prospects project to be power hitting 2B & 3B that can still be great defenders at those positions. The fact that an occasional 6’4 guy sticks at SS does not diminish Rdehring’s point that taller guys are less likely to stick. Likelihood refers to the portion of the population, right. So, what is the height distribution among top shortstops? The first list are the highest WAR SS from 2019 & 2020. It’s not cumulative, I took the top guys from both years. 17 of the top 25 are 6’1 or under. The 2nd list are the guys that rated the highest defensively. 8 of the top 12 are 6”0 and under. This is not exactly sophisticated data gathering. However, this sample and history going much further back suggests that a player growing to 6’4 or above likely means the odds of being a top defensive SS are very low. Jean Segura - 5’10 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Jorge Polanco – 5”11 Javier Baez – 6’0 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Kevin Newman – 6’0 Bo Bichette – 6’0 Willy Adames – 6’0 Xander Bogaerts – 6’1 Tim Anderson – 6’1 Gleybor Torres – 6’1 Jonathan Villar – 6’1 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Danby Swanson – 6”1 Trevor Story – 6’2 Trea Turner – 6’2 Amed Rosario – 6’2 Didi Gregorious – 6’2 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Fernando Tatis Jr. – 6’3 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Corey Seager – 6’4 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Javier Baez – 6’0 Trevor Story – 6’2 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Willy Adames – 6’0 Elvis Andrus – 6’0

Abreau was awesome last year but Sano's OPS was almost 100 points higher than Abreau in 2019. Sano is heading into his prime and Abreau is leaving his behind. It's funny, I caught heat early on for criticizing Sano. Then, he really improved his approach and discipline in 2019. Subsequently, he was a beast. Now I find myself rooting for the guy to repeat or improve that 2019 season. I have always admired Donaldson and he killed us often. I sure would to see some of his best stuff now that he is in Twins uniform. Those two guys going strong at the same time would be something especially if the 2019 version of Kepler was batting between them.

Now we are adapting the argument and those does not work for debating financial theories. Your argument is they could afford to break-even or take less profit in certain years. I would not argue that point. Actually, I would say this is followed to some degree today. Obviously, practices vary by team. I am addressing the specific position that owners should approach management as if their billion dollar investment is a hobby or that they don’t need to take a profit because their team valuation has increased. For starters, valuation are a product of forecasted profit and sustainability. The model you suggest would not be quite as detrimental but a break-even philosophy as proposed here would virtually wipe out the valuation teams have built over decades. More to the point, I keep asking what is the value to fans? The assertion many have made here that this practice would allow the Twins to acquire high end free agents we can’t afford now. Of course, that position is horribly flawed. If invested as suggested, roughly $1.2B would be invested in players. The number of players is not going to change. Therefore, the average salary would go up by roughly $1.25M. Buying power would not change at all. As a matter of fact, the bigger market teams earn more profit. Therefore, the revenue disparity which is the actual problem (not profit) would be increased and the bigger market teams would be have an even greater advantage.

And you completely ignored my question. How would fans benefit by owners operating a break-even model?

If I remember correctly Sano was a SS when we signed him. It's likely the best athletes and best fielders are SS at this age. Lots of them end up at 2B or 3B.

I wondered the same a few years ago when some posters here were complaining that we were not signing the most expensive International prospects. It made me wonder what evidence there was that it was a good strategy to sign 16 y/o players to huge bonuses. I wondered if it made more sense to spread it out. So, I took a list of the highest signing bonuses of all time and compiled the results. The success stories were few and far between. Sano is among the most productive top $ signings. The vast majority never made it to MLB baseball or were pedestrian at best. I thought I posted the results here but perhaps my memory is off. At any rate, when we have a $6M pool to work with we can sign a $2.2M guy and have plenty to spread around. However, the failure ratio of these really high bonus guys is so high that we should not be upset if our team does more spreading it around then signing "quality" as some have put it. "Quality" where quality is defined as becoming a well above average MLB player, is just to hard to assess at 16 years of age.