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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I was about to write basically the exact same thing until I read your post. I don't really understand the message provided in the OP. Atlanta took a shot bringing in some guys who all performed at one time or another but were mediocre at best. Is this what Twins fan want? This was a prayer that worked out incredibly well? They did it because it cost them nothing in terms of prospects. What I see here is fans want to trade for players like Scherzer, Turner, Berrios, Cruz, Baez, and top RPs. All of those teams failed. Just like every other year buying (no matter how big) ends up failing at the deadline. Even in a case like the Cubs, can we say with any real certainty the Cubs would not have won without Chapman? Did the Royals need to trade away Manea in 2015? What are the odds they would have won without Zobrist? So, what's the takeaway here?
  2. Major League Ready
    He found something when he moved to Cedar Rapids. It was only 97 PAs but he had a wRC+ of 165 and an OPS over 1. I was really down on him but his performance in CR gives us some hope. I did not like that pick at that time and it came the year after they took Cavaco which I really hated. They could have take Stott or Carrol. Stott ended last year at AAA and he could have been our SS next year and Carroll is a 60FV prospect. Man, that ticks me off.
  3. Major League Ready
    I really don't know what to think he could return in terms of pitching. That's why I have suggested in the past we might be able to trade him for a SS that is blocked. Lewis is the only really good SS prospect we have and there are certainly question marks with him. Maybe I am misinterpreting some posts but I the context of the posts seems to indicate some posters are advocating trading Arraez for established major league pitching and I just don't see that happening.
  4. Major League Ready
    Kind of a one-sided view. Gurriel also massively outproduced Arraez. His average was 25 points higher and his slugging percentage was 86 points higher and he hit 15 bombs vs two for Arraez. They certainly are not the same hitter so it makes little sense to compare them in the way you have here. There is nothing flawed about JM's argument.
  5. Major League Ready
    What if it's a SS? What if it's pitching prospects. It would seem that a team trading for Arraez would be a contender and contenders generally don't trade established major league pitching, right?
  6. Major League Ready
    I think your definition of “can hit” is a bit narrow. Arraez hits for a high average but that’s not the only determining factor in creating runs. Arraez has a career wRC+ of 103. Garver-122 / Sano-118 / Even Kepler is 101 and he provides great defensive value. I think you are also looking back and not where we are going. Kirilloff is already more impactful than Arraez and he has the potential to be far more impactful. Who knows exactly what Miranda will do be he will likely have a much greater offensive impact. His strike out percentage is very low and his slugging percentage very high. We also have Martin in the wings with similar skills, more power, and more speed, and better defensively. Buxton is only has a 99 career wRC+. I too hope his SSS this year is a view of what’s to come but we should also have some confidence in Kirilloff and Miranda.
  7. Major League Ready
    Have to agree no team is trading a pitcher with this profile without getting back an elite prospect. These trades are always presented as multiple decent players for a great player but when does that actually ever happen?
  8. Major League Ready
    Obviously this changes significantly if they trade Buxton / Donaldson or Arraez. If Donaldonson gets traded, bring up Miranda and spend the extra dollars on pitching. They could also give Buxton a bump in 2022 as an incentive to extend but I doubt the immediacy of the pay raise is a big factor. So, ideally they spend the money on pitching or a top SS. IDK how good this estimate for Stroman and Taylor is so the numbers could change a bit. It would also be nice if the Pohlad's approved $140M. I am not real confident in Dobnak but Winder appeared ready last year and they have quite a few others that I would rather see in that 5th spot than another Shoemaker type. The players with a X are depth and obviously there could be several others included. At some point I could see a couple rookies sharing the 5th spot being "stacked" That gives them the exposure we need for developing internally.
  9. Major League Ready
    I framed this poorly. I meant they won't trade away top 10 prospects for short-term (less than 3 yrs) controlled established impact players to get better next year. In other words, they won't leverage the future. I could definitely see a trade of Donaldson or even Arraez and they are obviously significant assets. Rodgers wouldn't be a big surprise if the return was good. Buxton wouldn't be a shock but I am with those who really want to see him extended. I think they might even trade Garver if they got a haul. Of course, Kepler would be a significant asset and he would not be a big surprise either. I believe they have too many holes to fill in one off-season without trading away a very significant portion of our top prospects. That's why I don't think we see any top prospects traded similar to Snell / Darvish. Any team could cash in the farm at anytime. You just don't see below average revenue teams go there. San Diego was absolutely loaded so they could afford to spend some of that capital.
  10. Major League Ready
    I agree and this framing of how to proceed is fair and honest. I also think nearly everyone is solely focused on a plan to compete next year while ignoring the near impossibility of getting a top 3 capable of contending in one off-season. At least it's nearly impossible without a combination of a lot more revenue and an extraordinary farm systems like the Padres tapped into last year.
  11. Major League Ready
    It's going to be interesting to see what Seager gets. Has has produced 3.4 and 3.7 war in the previous two full seasons. He had 1.8 in 2020 so on a prorated basis about 5.4. I know the prediction is 30+M but I think the only teams willing to pay that much for that level of production are the top few teams in terms of revenue. It's quite different if $30M represents 10% of payroll as compared to 20+ percent. I guess that's the question for the Twins. Is it a good idea to drop 20-22% of payroll on one player. Looking through the top paid players by team, there are not any successful teams where one player represents 20+ percent of payroll. I don't see the Twins playing at the very top of the SS market. I see a stop gap or Chris Taylor because Taylor can be moved to a different position if Lewis proves to be a SS. Of course, if they absolutely don't believe Lewis can stick at SS that would change the approach. I see them giving Lewis every chance because if he sticks, they have a very promising left side of the IF for several years. Perhaps just as importantly, that $30M or something close could be reallocated to bringing back Berrios next year or someone like him.
  12. Major League Ready
    Now you are just framing this up to suit your needs. For starters, your math is technically correct but we are not talking about calendar years. Of course, you know this because Cave was here for 4 seasons. 2018/2019/2020/2021 so either you are trying to mislead us or you are just ignoring basic logic for convenience. Also, the context of the conversation was clearly adding pitching next year. Everyone here knows we could trade away our established players and rebuild. Are you really telling us what you meant was they should take an approach targeting 4-5 seasons from now?
  13. Major League Ready
    Go back to 2011 and look at the posts on this site. The majority of fans ALWAYS think the future is now. Year after year the cry was we are ready go for it now. Fans are simply much more willing to trade away the future compared to GMs. It's a lot easier to take that stance when you are not accountable. This team has far better odds of building a winner via developing internal pitching. Therefore, any strategies that don't facilitate that goal are inferior strategies. Prospects volatility is way overplayed for three reasons. The most important one being that a below average revenue team has no chance if their prospects don't work out. Second, free agents also fail at a significant rate. Third, trades for prospects or yet to be established players has a bigger impact on building a team than trading prospects for established players for below average revenue teams. Leveraging the future with so many unknowns is very poor management practice. Falvey and Lavine are very skilled regardless of what some people here like to believe. I will be shocked if they trade away any significant assets this year.
  14. Major League Ready
    I actually agree that Kepler is not the type of prize Oakland would look for in a trade for Manaea. I was just being Captain Obvious pointing out the considerable added value of three years of control. Frankly, I think trading for any of the highly coveted pitchers mentioned here is going to cost considerably more than what has been discussed. Teams in the Twins position generally don't leverage the future for the present so I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed.
  15. Major League Ready
    3 years vs 1 substantially influences trade value, especially when it's a cost controlled player in their prime. One year just does not bring back that much in trades anymore as we have seen with numerous examples unless you are talking a Mookie Betts level player. Trading players controlled for 3 or more years for 1 year of control is a good way to ensure long-term mediocrity.
  16. Major League Ready
    Baseball Trades shows this trade favors Oakland but it's fairly close.
  17. Major League Ready
    Losing Maeda was a big blow. If he was not hurt and they sign a "Stroman type" and Pineda and we have a good team. Probably not a contender but the only way this team gets to contention is if our pitching prospects develop as we hope. The other option is basically the approach San Diego took. However, we would need to aim higher than Darvish and Snell. The trade proposals mentioned here for Alcantara and Montas seem waaaaay short t me. We don't have any blue chip prospects with the possible exception of Kirilloff but even Kirilloff is not the type of player Miami would look for if they traded Alcantara or if Oakland traded Montas. Therefore, I would think we would have to offer a number of our top prospects. Look what we got for 1 year and 2 months of Berrios. My guess is that Alcantra would cost us Kirilloff + Jeffers + Balazovic + one of Winder / Enlow / Sands and I still don't know if that would do it.
  18. Major League Ready
    Yep... Who would want a pitcher like Carlos Rodon. He was a bargain basement price at 1yr/ $3M or Anthony Desclafani on a 1/yr /$6M deal or Robbie Ray 1yr/$8M? Why would anyone want to sign these guys?
  19. Major League Ready
    It will be a long time before the relative value of this trade will be known from the Dodgers side. One year of Betts is a rather bad deal of Downs turns out to be above average. Yes, it helped them sign Betts but contracts that run to age 39 can hurt a team for 4 or 5 years. Regardless, what it meant to Boston is more relevant in this case as their role/situation in this case was the same as what the Twins face. They were probably going to lose Betts even with their enormous financial resource. So, they traded him away. They got 5 years of a pretty darn good player in Verdugo and Jeter Downs who is tearing up the AZ fall league. To sacrifice that return for one year would be utter incompetence. Don't get me wrong, I have consistently said I hope they sign Buxton. However, to ridicule any team for making this type of trade is irrational (fanatical) thinking.
  20. Major League Ready
    I highlighted the big question. Plans to retool, even for a year, will be in the minority here. IMO, that approach makes the most sense. My guess is that they will retool with an eye on 2023 while putting a better product on the field in 2022. The best way to do that IMO is to spend on the high quality (young) free agent they can get to come here and be part of the next window of contention. Fill one other slot with Pineda or equivalent and let Dobnak / Winder / Balazovic and others fight it out for the 5th spot. Add a SS and a couple RPs and we will have a plus 500 team that could even stay in the race if everything goes well. Youthful SPs played significant roles on playoff teams this year. I think over the course of 2022 they will look to work Miranda and Martin into the lineup. They will give 3-5 SP prospects a look over the course of 2022 looking to establish SPs to fill out the rotation with Ryan and Ober. Establishing those SPs would give them the budget to tweak the roster in 2023.
  21. Major League Ready
    Wouldn't it make sense to consider if other teams have traded away top players in similar situations before slamming the Twins. Boston, who has easily a couple hundred million more in revenue traded Mookie Betts rather than let him go for nothing. They made him a very good offer and traded him when he declined. Watch/listen to any baseball shows in the off-season and this topic is discussed regularly where the analyst say they can't let player X go without getting something back. I hope they find a way to construct an offer that is fair to both sides. Then, I hope he is willing to accept a reasonable offer just like I wish Berrios was willing to accept a reasonable offer. Sometimes players won't accept a reasonable offer and it becomes necessary to trade them but to keep them when the team is a clear contender would be incompetence on the part of the front office. Yet, seem to want to criticize them for doing what most or perhaps all GMs would do.
  22. Major League Ready
    "We" was meant as fans in general and the baseball industry in general. Regardless of your position on velocity or mine, teams are pretty focused on velocity and we sure do hear about plenty about getting velocity from posters here. I should have prefaced my statement to make that clear. However, this does not change the fact that you are suggesting that the teams just don't get it.
  23. Major League Ready
    The first thing they should do with their OF is sign Buxton. The next thing should be to set-up a winter program for Kepler to learn how to bunt. To continue to allow teams to shift him so dramatically is absurd. Carew would have hit 900 against the Kepler shift. That BABIP would go up considerably if he forced them out of the shift. Finally, put Kirilloff in LF, at least for this year.
  24. Major League Ready
    So, what are you saying. Are you suggesting the entire league has adopted a poor practices. You know something none of them understand? I don't care for some of the things that have changed about the game. However, my dislike aside, teams are following practices that increase their odds of winning. At least, I am assuming as a fan that teams are better positioned to evaluate these practices than I am. Among all the teams they employ hundreds of specialists who invest thousands of man hours to understand what practices are most effective. We want guys to throw a hundred or as hard as they can. We bitch non stop when out team does not relentlessly pursue velocity. Then, we bitch when they can't throw as many innings.
  25. Major League Ready
    According to baseball trades the median value for Alcantara and Montas is 123.5 and I would guess they are not getting traded unless the receiving team pays dearly. How are you going to come up with the prospect capital to make this happen. I don't think we have a single elite prospect that it would take to get either Alcantara or Montas. Seems like we would have to trade a boat load of our top 10 prospects including Miranda, Ober, and Ryan. Curious to see what you would propose.
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