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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I don't Bundy being here next year. They already have 6 that should be on the opening day roster in Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Maeda. Then, Paddack should be available a couple months in and they have Smeltzer and Dobnak for depth. They are going to give Dobnak a shot if he looks decent next spring because they have him under contract for 3 years and 3 options. Let's hope that Varland and SWR is knocking at the door a couple months in too. All that aside. The depth looks quite adequate. Any addition should be a higher profile SP. Moving Donaldson's contract was huge. They can fit a high profile SP into their budget even if Correa stays. Selecting Bundy's option just does not make sense unless you can't get a higher profile SP to come here.
  2. Major League Ready
    Rodon is definitely opting opt. He has had a good year. No way he sits on one remaining year when he can sign a lucrative long-term deal.
  3. Major League Ready
    I would like to see them invest at catcher but there won't be anyone worthy of a big investment available. I have not seen Contreras lately but the talk at the trade deadline was that his defense is very subpar at this point. I hear ya where SS is concerned. I just don't see it as feasible to sign a SS long-term and sign a front of the rotation SP. They could cover the payroll year 1. However, that strategy falls apart as players earn arbitration increases, especially if they do really well and get big bumps. At that point they probably have to replace some of them with prearb players which may or may not be available. It's a tough call.
  4. Major League Ready
    Circumstances matter. It's a fact free agent pitching has had a high degree of failure. I fully understand the relative success/failure of free agent SPs over the past 20 years, That's why I rejected that strategy when there were so many other holes where payroll could be better invested. That's not where we are today and that does not mean there are not circumstances where it's a reasonable risk. They are going to be at $80M assuming Correa leaves. Can you think of a better place to invest given all the prearb players on the roster? You may recall that starting last off-season that they would be in a very different position if they could establish several prearb players. Enter Kirilloff / Larnach / Celestino and the move to replace Donaldson with Miranda is huge. We have the better player and will gain over $20M in spending capacity next year from that move. Palacios then Lewis is the likely SS next year and let's not forget Nick Gordon stepping up. Then, you have Duran / Jax and probably Megill establishing themselves in the BP and Ober/ Ryan / Winder establishing they are ML players plus eventually adding Paddack and Maeda ion a favorable contract and you have a modest revenue team in a unique position to not only afford a top of the rotation free agent but it will be a reasonable risk in this situation, IMO. They might just throw us all off by converting Duran to a SP. In that case, I would advocate a closer type and they have been even worse investments.
  5. Major League Ready
    James Taillon is also a free agent. It's hard to see the Yankee's letting him walk but they obviously did not extend him so who knows, it might be possible . Bassitt is a very similar scenario in terms of being with a big spending team but he will definitely opt out. Phillies will definitely pick up Nola's option. Kershaw isn't going anywhere either. So, despite adding Taillon to the list, Mike's statement is likely accurate.
  6. Major League Ready
    I don't think we will miss his .083 average / wRC+ of 7 or his negative WAR. We have Kirilloff / Arraez and Miranda at 1B. Why on earth would we want to take up a roster spot with Sano? I will be very happy to roll with those three and add a $11M BP arm or spend $23M on a top of the rotation SP instead of a $12M average SP.
  7. Major League Ready
    Maeda Larnach Alcala Jeffers Ober Garlick
  8. Major League Ready
    Arraez has a wRC+ of 91 and an OPS of 661 against LHP. Putting Urshela at 3B and Miranda at 1B means Urshela with a career 750 OPS against LHP replaces Arraez in the lineup. Not a monumental improvement but an improvement and a good way to give bench players playing time and having Arraez as a pinch hitter in a key spot had one presented itself.
  9. Major League Ready
    This question prompted predictable responses. Perhaps the question needs to be slightly recast. How do they manage these 8 guys and any prospects that show they are ready next year. All 7 of the 8 guys are established major league pitchers and the 8th guy (Winder) showed he belonged during his ML stint. Dobnak has 3 options so he could be sent down to re-establish himself. Paddack won't be back until a point in the season where we will likely need an injury replacement. Therefore, one of the remaining 6 is a multi-inning RP. Pretty easy to manage if they start next season with the same personnel. I hope they sign Rodon and make it just a little more complicated.
  10. Major League Ready
    Correa's AAV has nothing to do with my point which you have missed entirely, and you are focused on one half of one season (Palacios). That would be reasonable if this thread was focused on Correa opting in for one more season and then moving on. However, much of the discussion has centered around extending Correa which means another 6-8 years. Focusing on one what would very likely be a 1/2 season replacement is extremely misguided but it kindly. Then, doubling down on your bias you have elected to use a SSS of Palacios OPS in his first MLB stint. Since going back down to AAA his OPS is 972 and he is hitting 323. IDK how he will adapt to MLB but the suggestion he will continue to have a sub 500 OPS is ludicrous. The most likely case scenario is that Lewis will replace Correa. He certainly has the potential to provide as much offense as Correa or more if Correa continues to hit as he has this year. The reasonable assumption is that the drop-off from Correa to Lewis should be minimal. Then, if the $35M is used more efficiently, (more per WAR) and effectively ( higher need) the team will be much better off overall. For example, a top of the rotation SP and a back of the BP ARM. Lewis + front line starter + back of the bullpen RP >>>>> Correa. You seem to be assuming there are no other possible uses fop the $35M being paid to Correa. I will take Lewis / Rodon and whatever BP arm we can get for whatever is left of the $35M after signing Rodon over Correa.
  11. Major League Ready
    He was looking for "Lindor Money" last year which of course was $341M. Lindor is almost exactly 1 year older so I would bet Boras still feels Lindor is a reasonable comp. Let's say the market is just not good and the best offer Boras can come up with is $250M. Correa could opt in for 2023. He would need to get $215M at age 29 to net the same amount. I seriously doubt he would or should reject an offer at $250 because he probably does not get more than $150 if his performance is not significantly better next year.
  12. Major League Ready
    If the context here is long-term, I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now. So, will we see appreciably better offense from Correa going forward? IDK but you would think so. If not, I will definitely take Lewis plus $30M year for 6 years to spend elsewhere.
  13. Major League Ready
    The 8.5M per WAR represents the average cost of free agents. Cost and value are not the same thing. Paying 8.5M per WAR for a mid-market team is a recipe for failure. To put this in perspective, if they were to sign four players that produced 4 WAR at 8.5M, the cost would be 136M which of course is almost their entire budget. Even if they spent $150M, every single player among the remaining 22 players would have to be prearb which of course is extremely unrealistic. The free agent portion of the budget would get you to approximately 66 wins. Therefore, the requirement in order to build a 95 win team would be that they produce 29 WAR from 15.4M in spending. The premise that free agents are worth $8.5M is misguided. They cost $8.5m on average but it's a failure when they produce 1 WAR per $8.5M, especially for lower revenue teams. That's the other failure of this premise / value proposition. What is Viable production per dollar spent is far different for the Dodgers / Yankees than the Rays / As. The equation here is what will be the difference in WAR between Lewis or whoever would replace him plus the war produced with the $150M in the salary (estimated) difference between the replacement over six years.
  14. Major League Ready
    They are at $110M for next year plus whatever incentives Buxton and Maeda earns so $115-$120M. It makes no sense to add a SP unless its a top of the rotation guy (better than Gray / Mahle) which is $25M-35M. How much do you think they will spend?
  15. Major League Ready
    Don't look now but Jermaine Palacios has a .337 ave and an OPS of 1.034 for his last 100 ABs. He has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. Sure would be nice to see him perform this well for the rest of the season.
  16. Major League Ready
    It's not that big of a mess. Bundy and Archer's options will be declined. The starting 5 will be Gray / Mahle / Ryan/ Winder and either Maeda or Ober. Smeltzer / Dobnak and eventually Paddack will be inexpensive depth. I suspect 1 or 2 of them will be multi-inning RPs.
  17. Major League Ready
    I would much rather finish 2nd in the division with a 100 win than get into the playoffs with an 84win team. In other words, how much we leverage the future should not be driven by the fact we are in first place. The goal should be to build a great team, not sneak into the playoffs because we play in a division that is very weak this year. Do we want to be good for several years or make the playoffs for 1 year? That said, anything is possible so plug the biggest holes which is the BP.
  18. Major League Ready
    No ... Pittsburgh / KC and Detroit have been bad for a prolonged period. They have not been a position to be buyers which is a very different scenario from what you are implying or the situation the twins find themselves. It's reasonable the Twins would be buyers. The question is how much should the Twins leverage their future for this team? The teams you mentioned have had absolutely no chance. Wasn't the article you are referencing specifically about position players? If so, how is that relevant to the Twins situation? We have recent examples in the Clevinger and Kluber trades where those players were hurt and provided nothing while those teams gave significant long-term assets. Clase for Kluber, Miller / Naylor and Quantrill for Clevinger. Snell has not been of significant value and of course there is always the Shields for Tatis jr.
  19. Major League Ready
    So let's do something really stupid instead of executing a plan with the best probability of success. BTW ... he number of prospects that "survive has very little value in measuring the impact of trading prospects for elite / established pitching. That measure would be exclusively the prospects traded for elite pitching. When you look at prospects returned for pitchers like Sale / Clevinger / Kluber / Shields, etc you will find a much higher frequency of success. I cringe every time someone uses the failed prospects argument in this context because it is quite misquided.
  20. Major League Ready
    or just trade him for the best prospect you can get and trade for pitching with what we already have.
  21. Major League Ready
    You assume. I just made several posts regarding the 40 man roster crunch and advocated they trade some of those prospects already on are that will need to be added. I have also stated directly more than once I would upgrade the BP. My objection is with those who would trade Kirilloff / Miranda or Winder.
  22. Major League Ready
    You seem to be suggesting the twins trade away players that will / should be important for the next several years in order to improve a "incredibly flawed" team for the short-term. I guess that's fine for a fan to be obsessed with the right now. If you are a GM / PBO, it's a good way to lose your job and also make sure you never get another one at the same level.
  23. Major League Ready
    When did I ever suggest they stand pat? I just don't support the unprecedented type actions being suggested here where we trade of 5 players. It is pure fantasy. Name a team that has ever done what is being suggested. If we are that bad off they should be selling.
  24. Major League Ready
    No, he once was a good pitcher. Now he is a mediocre pitcher.
  25. Major League Ready
    If the team is so bad as to require this many additions they should be a seller. Can you name one instance where a team ever added nearly this much at the deadline. That should be a good indication if it's a good idea.
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