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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Not to mention that he is literally one of the worst offensive players in baseball this season. He has been horrible since he left and not great the last couple years he was here so the logic that he has a ring, therefore he would add something to this team is for those who insist on maintaining a position regardless of the facts. The Twins are having a hard time scoring and the answer is a guy with a wRC+ of 50!!! Really? Our back-ups to the injured guys (Celestino & Garlick) have a wRC+ of 91 and 154. Larnach while learning his way at the ML level was 103 and he played fundamentally better defense as well.
  2. Major League Ready
    Boras negotiated those options for two reasons. One, if Correa gets injured this season and that injury would keep him out next year or a significant portion of the year (like Lewis), he would gets paid max AAV and all the time he needs to come back and prove he is ready for the next big contract. Two, if he had a terrible season, he could opt in and hope to prove he can have a much better 2023 setting him up for a bigger pay day. Those options are of zero benefit to the Twins. They were a smart add by Boras to provide insurance to Correa in taking what is essentially a 1 year deal.
  3. Major League Ready
    How often do we hear team X was willing to give one more year than team Y. The deal with team X is virtually always a little less AAV. The vast majority of players go to the team that provides the most guaranteed money. We know this very clearly from history so positioning "if all he wants is the moist guaranteed" as anything but the norm makes no sense.
  4. Major League Ready
    How could they have traded him at the deadline? He got hurt a few days before the deadline and was out for the season so there was no way they could have traded him.
  5. Major League Ready
    How often does Williams catch? I guess what I am wondering is can he be at least a b/u catcher? Same goes for Isola. These guys would have value if they can at least be b/u catchers or are they 1B and emergency catcher?
  6. Major League Ready
    Before we go giving away the next 5-7 years, let's see what we have when they get Winder / Ober / Maeda / Alcala / Kirilloff / Larnach / Jeffers and eventually Paddack and Lewis back. Plus they will have $60M to spend in free agency.
  7. Major League Ready
    Polanco got the same pitch (middle/middle) in the bottom of the inning and did not swing.
  8. Major League Ready
    The discussion had absolutely nothing to do with his performance when he was here so I don't know why you are showing me his numbers from when he was here. There have been a couple of people who complain he's not here now and his present offensive performance is absolutely horrible, so the point was complaining he is not here now is absurd. I mean really, complaining we don't have a guy who has negative WAR.
  9. Major League Ready
    Do you want players who perform well or who are enthusiastic but perform terribly because he is performing horribly by any measure? He was one of my favorite players but that changed with the frequent horrible ABs and defensive mistakes. His plate discipline has been among the very worst of the league. I can't stand watching those horrible ABs and defensive mistakes because he is an excitable player. I love enthusiasm too but definitely not when it leads to terrible decisions and horrendously poor approach at the plate. Regardless of any of these preferences, if we had 8 position players like Eddie this would be 110 loss team so if the premise we are missing Rosario very misguided.
  10. Major League Ready
    Are you suggesting Rosario being gone is a problem. He has a negative WAR. His OPS is an awful .546 and his wRC+ is 48. We do not have a player on the team with 100 ABs that does not have an OPS 100 points higher. It sounds like you are complaining we did not keep a guy who is playing horribly.
  11. Major League Ready
    Great analysis. I have always thought he was 3B long-term. He plays that position better and 1B is much easier to fill. I can't believe how many people were willing to trade him 3 weeks ago. Replacing Donaldson and his $21.75M salary with Miranda's is the most beneficial / impactful thing that has developed this year. Duran is a big development as well but if they do something with the $20M saved that move is going to be huge going forward.
  12. Major League Ready
    Do I have this right. MLB cost $20 month for out of market games and Bally is offering all the games for $20/month?
  13. Major League Ready
    I don't Bundy being here next year. They already have 6 that should be on the opening day roster in Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Winder / Ober and Maeda. Then, Paddack should be available a couple months in and they have Smeltzer and Dobnak for depth. They are going to give Dobnak a shot if he looks decent next spring because they have him under contract for 3 years and 3 options. Let's hope that Varland and SWR is knocking at the door a couple months in too. All that aside. The depth looks quite adequate. Any addition should be a higher profile SP. Moving Donaldson's contract was huge. They can fit a high profile SP into their budget even if Correa stays. Selecting Bundy's option just does not make sense unless you can't get a higher profile SP to come here.
  14. Major League Ready
    Rodon is definitely opting opt. He has had a good year. No way he sits on one remaining year when he can sign a lucrative long-term deal.
  15. Major League Ready
    I would like to see them invest at catcher but there won't be anyone worthy of a big investment available. I have not seen Contreras lately but the talk at the trade deadline was that his defense is very subpar at this point. I hear ya where SS is concerned. I just don't see it as feasible to sign a SS long-term and sign a front of the rotation SP. They could cover the payroll year 1. However, that strategy falls apart as players earn arbitration increases, especially if they do really well and get big bumps. At that point they probably have to replace some of them with prearb players which may or may not be available. It's a tough call.
  16. Major League Ready
    Circumstances matter. It's a fact free agent pitching has had a high degree of failure. I fully understand the relative success/failure of free agent SPs over the past 20 years, That's why I rejected that strategy when there were so many other holes where payroll could be better invested. That's not where we are today and that does not mean there are not circumstances where it's a reasonable risk. They are going to be at $80M assuming Correa leaves. Can you think of a better place to invest given all the prearb players on the roster? You may recall that starting last off-season that they would be in a very different position if they could establish several prearb players. Enter Kirilloff / Larnach / Celestino and the move to replace Donaldson with Miranda is huge. We have the better player and will gain over $20M in spending capacity next year from that move. Palacios then Lewis is the likely SS next year and let's not forget Nick Gordon stepping up. Then, you have Duran / Jax and probably Megill establishing themselves in the BP and Ober/ Ryan / Winder establishing they are ML players plus eventually adding Paddack and Maeda ion a favorable contract and you have a modest revenue team in a unique position to not only afford a top of the rotation free agent but it will be a reasonable risk in this situation, IMO. They might just throw us all off by converting Duran to a SP. In that case, I would advocate a closer type and they have been even worse investments.
  17. Major League Ready
    James Taillon is also a free agent. It's hard to see the Yankee's letting him walk but they obviously did not extend him so who knows, it might be possible . Bassitt is a very similar scenario in terms of being with a big spending team but he will definitely opt out. Phillies will definitely pick up Nola's option. Kershaw isn't going anywhere either. So, despite adding Taillon to the list, Mike's statement is likely accurate.
  18. Major League Ready
    I don't think we will miss his .083 average / wRC+ of 7 or his negative WAR. We have Kirilloff / Arraez and Miranda at 1B. Why on earth would we want to take up a roster spot with Sano? I will be very happy to roll with those three and add a $11M BP arm or spend $23M on a top of the rotation SP instead of a $12M average SP.
  19. Major League Ready
    Maeda Larnach Alcala Jeffers Ober Garlick
  20. Major League Ready
    Arraez has a wRC+ of 91 and an OPS of 661 against LHP. Putting Urshela at 3B and Miranda at 1B means Urshela with a career 750 OPS against LHP replaces Arraez in the lineup. Not a monumental improvement but an improvement and a good way to give bench players playing time and having Arraez as a pinch hitter in a key spot had one presented itself.
  21. Major League Ready
    This question prompted predictable responses. Perhaps the question needs to be slightly recast. How do they manage these 8 guys and any prospects that show they are ready next year. All 7 of the 8 guys are established major league pitchers and the 8th guy (Winder) showed he belonged during his ML stint. Dobnak has 3 options so he could be sent down to re-establish himself. Paddack won't be back until a point in the season where we will likely need an injury replacement. Therefore, one of the remaining 6 is a multi-inning RP. Pretty easy to manage if they start next season with the same personnel. I hope they sign Rodon and make it just a little more complicated.
  22. Major League Ready
    Correa's AAV has nothing to do with my point which you have missed entirely, and you are focused on one half of one season (Palacios). That would be reasonable if this thread was focused on Correa opting in for one more season and then moving on. However, much of the discussion has centered around extending Correa which means another 6-8 years. Focusing on one what would very likely be a 1/2 season replacement is extremely misguided but it kindly. Then, doubling down on your bias you have elected to use a SSS of Palacios OPS in his first MLB stint. Since going back down to AAA his OPS is 972 and he is hitting 323. IDK how he will adapt to MLB but the suggestion he will continue to have a sub 500 OPS is ludicrous. The most likely case scenario is that Lewis will replace Correa. He certainly has the potential to provide as much offense as Correa or more if Correa continues to hit as he has this year. The reasonable assumption is that the drop-off from Correa to Lewis should be minimal. Then, if the $35M is used more efficiently, (more per WAR) and effectively ( higher need) the team will be much better off overall. For example, a top of the rotation SP and a back of the BP ARM. Lewis + front line starter + back of the bullpen RP >>>>> Correa. You seem to be assuming there are no other possible uses fop the $35M being paid to Correa. I will take Lewis / Rodon and whatever BP arm we can get for whatever is left of the $35M after signing Rodon over Correa.
  23. Major League Ready
    He was looking for "Lindor Money" last year which of course was $341M. Lindor is almost exactly 1 year older so I would bet Boras still feels Lindor is a reasonable comp. Let's say the market is just not good and the best offer Boras can come up with is $250M. Correa could opt in for 2023. He would need to get $215M at age 29 to net the same amount. I seriously doubt he would or should reject an offer at $250 because he probably does not get more than $150 if his performance is not significantly better next year.
  24. Major League Ready
    If the context here is long-term, I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now. So, will we see appreciably better offense from Correa going forward? IDK but you would think so. If not, I will definitely take Lewis plus $30M year for 6 years to spend elsewhere.
  25. Major League Ready
    The 8.5M per WAR represents the average cost of free agents. Cost and value are not the same thing. Paying 8.5M per WAR for a mid-market team is a recipe for failure. To put this in perspective, if they were to sign four players that produced 4 WAR at 8.5M, the cost would be 136M which of course is almost their entire budget. Even if they spent $150M, every single player among the remaining 22 players would have to be prearb which of course is extremely unrealistic. The free agent portion of the budget would get you to approximately 66 wins. Therefore, the requirement in order to build a 95 win team would be that they produce 29 WAR from 15.4M in spending. The premise that free agents are worth $8.5M is misguided. They cost $8.5m on average but it's a failure when they produce 1 WAR per $8.5M, especially for lower revenue teams. That's the other failure of this premise / value proposition. What is Viable production per dollar spent is far different for the Dodgers / Yankees than the Rays / As. The equation here is what will be the difference in WAR between Lewis or whoever would replace him plus the war produced with the $150M in the salary (estimated) difference between the replacement over six years.
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