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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Three guys available I didn't think would be there. I am hoping for Parada but lee or Collier will be great.
  2. Major League Ready
    Rushing would be a great get at 48 but I doubt he is still available.
  3. Major League Ready
    Musgrove or Rodon. IDK ... maybe it takes closer to $30M but 26-28 is what I was thinking it would take, Of course, the number of years will influence the AAV up or down a bit. Taillon was looking like a good target as well but he has not looked so good lately.
  4. Major League Ready
    I think we have a misunderstanding. I am saying instead of investing 16.6m in Snell, we would be far better of investing that 16.6m plus another 10M. In other words, 26.6M annually. The thinking being Snell is not much of an upgrade and won't move the needle. Getting a true front of the rotation guy would change this team.
  5. Major League Ready
    Snell was good once upon a time. Now, he has an ERA over 5 and he generally provides short starts. How does that help us now? Plus, we get the honor of paying him 16.6M next year. I would MUCH rather invest that 16M in the BP or a true front of the rotation SP.
  6. Major League Ready
    He got off to a horrible start but he is hitting .328 the last two months with a 28.6% K rate. He has become a different hitter. Will he maintain that at AAA. I would imagine we will get an idea in the not too distant future.
  7. Major League Ready
    I would much prefer for them to take the $16.6M he would get paid next year and invest another $10M into a SP that would actually make a difference like Musgrove or Rodon.
  8. Major League Ready
    I agree completely that they need 2 or 3 RPs. However, I am thinking the front office has a little different view of where they may come from. We don't know how well it's going with Maeda / Alcala and perhaps moving Archer / Bundy or Winder to the Pen. They still have a couple weeks and at this point they might believe those two will help or they might be completely writing them off. They might put some faith in Duffey if he is great for the next two weeks. The same is true of Thiebar. He has been pretty decent for a long-time so they probably have not written him off the way he has been written off here. Megill flashes good potential at times as well. They are not signing 3 guys but I believe them signing one or two will depend on how some internal guys look in 2 1/2 weeks. I also agree the WS can and has been won by teams that were not the best but teams just don't come out of nowhere. Let's keep in mind that Atlanta spent virtually no prospect capital. They replace some injured guys with guys who were performing really poorly, and they performed in a manner that was crazy. The fact is that only two teams can get to the WS and all of the prospect capital spent at the deadline is spent by teams that fail. Of those who do make it, it's quite likely the players they acquired were not the difference in getting there. In other words, it's a very high price with a low probability of paying off. For me, that makes very little sense unless the probability is already high. I just refuse to put so much focus on something that is going to happen once every 30 years if our team wins the world series in line with the probability of doing so. I want to see a quality product on the field as often as possible. Sure, KC won a WS but they have had a miserable product for the bulk of the past 30 years. Any team could push their chips in and be good for a year or a year and a half. I like watching good baseball as often as possible and that requires managing assets accordingly. If others put far more weight on the immediate, that's their prerogative. I have studies how competitive teams are built in small/medium markets quite extensively and trading for prospects is waaaay more important than trading them away.
  9. Major League Ready
    Up to this point this team has been nowhere near a real contender. They are 6th or 7th best team in the AL. If they become a true contender it will be because Miranda / Kirilloff / Larnach / Celestino / Ryan / Duran / Jax have been a huge part of proving the team. Some of these guys were acquired by trading away established players at the deadline and the others are all guys they hung on to when people were calling for trades. 3 weeks ago there were plenty of people advocating we trade Miranda and Kirilloff. The net result of which would be to improve our odds in the playoffs from very slim to slim. I am really glad our FO is not short-sighted. Lots of people are again going to be disappointed because they are not trading for starting pitching. They are going to upgrade the BP and that's it.
  10. Major League Ready
    How infrequently position players transition to catcher might suggest why not. It's an incredibly difficult defensive position. Someone who has never played the position transitioning at this point is going to be rare.
  11. Major League Ready
    Baltimore is a 500 team in a tough division should they be pushing all their chips in. Boston and Toronto in the East as well. Seattle in the West. Philly/ St Louis / Atlanta / San Francisco / San Fran and Arizona. Should all of these front offices be fired if they don't go all in? Cobine these teams with all of the true contenders and it's going to take a whole lot of players to satisfy all that demand.
  12. Major League Ready
    What do you think .... Does Cade Povich have the highest ceiling among our SP prospects? Will CES be able to stick at 3B? Is Javier breaking out or is this a 6 week hot streak?
  13. Major League Ready
    Alex Isola could end up in the top 30 at the end of the year if he progresses defensively but catcher would be a great place to invest free agent dollars next year. The Twins will easily have the budget for two top level free agents next year. Contreras would make a lot of sense. However, they are not signing Correa if a team is willing to commit 7+ years to him. Lewis provides the most value at SS and my guess is they are confident he is their SS for the next several years, starting about this time next year. I am hoping that 2nd top free agent is Joe Musgrove or Carlos Rodon. They can also afford a relatively high profile RP in that budget as well.
  14. Major League Ready
    I would love to see Contreras here next year but I really doubt they trade for him this year.
  15. Major League Ready
    I understood your calculation. The point is that Fangraphs has Donaldson's WAR at 1 instead of 2. Why should we just accept BB Reference's estimate when Fangraphs is very different? A 105 WRC+ and a 714 OPS with a 228 average does not sound like a 4 WAR player to me, not even close. That's why I asked if anyone had any insight into the difference between BB Reference and Fangraphs. I thought it was possible an article has been written on the subject. The swap for Urshela has worked out just fine. They wanted to bridge the gap to Miranda and Urshela has worked out fine. There is a good chance they will get some trade value for Urshela at the deadline or this off-season. What I did not want next year is a 37 1/2 y/o Donaldson making $20M plus an option we would need to buyout in 2024 for $8M. Donaldson's OPS over the past 3 1/2 years has gone 900 / 842 / 827 to 714 this year. Who would you bet will have the higher OPS or wRC+ next year, Miranda or Donaldson? Plus, we have $20M to invest in free agents.
  16. Major League Ready
    BB Reference has Donaldson at exactly 2 WAR and Fangraphs only 1 WAR. Donaldsons wRC+ is 105 and his OPS is 714 so I don't see how that equates to 4 WAR. Urshela's wRC+ is 110 and his OPS is 728. BB Reference has him at 1.1 WAR. Urshela has 35 RBI and Dnaldson has 33. Does anyone know the differences in their calculations that could account for such a large variance between BB Reference and Fangraphs?
  17. Major League Ready
    Anyone know what the deal is with Alcala?
  18. Major League Ready
    Maybe I am just being optimistic but I look at the transformation / development of the team over last year at it’s looking like an upswing for the next several years to me. They are in the midst of establishing a number of young position players that sure look like they will improve the team. Kirilloff / Miranda and Gordon for that matter are performing admirably. Since 6/1, their respective OPS are 825 / 883 and 860. I am going to assume Lewis recovers which will give us a high performing / low-cost infield for the next several years. Of course, we will still have Arraez and Polanco. Those two have an OPS since 6/1 of 891 and 941. They extended Buxton and Kepler is playing quite well. Larnach was a considerably better defender than most expected and he has shown to be an impact bat although he will need to make some adjustments. That’s a very good group of position players and they also have Matt Walner crushing it at AA. He should be here sometime next year. On the pitching side, Duran and Jax sure look like long-term BP fixtures and it’s just not that hard to come up with a couple free agent RPs in the off-season. I expect Canterino will be in the BP sometime next year too. Gray is back next year. Ryan / Ober and Winder have established themselves as solid SPs and Winder looks to have some upside. Smeltzer will provide value as SP depth or long relief. Paddack and Maeda will be back next year and there is a reasonable chance a couple of the BP arms like Megill that are getting a shot right now become reliable RPs. That’s a significant amount of long-term talent being established that would indicate a team on the rise to me. They are investing playing time in these guys and that investment is starting to pay off. Plus, they are going to be in an enviable financial position to add free agent talent. They got rid of Donaldson's contract and Sano's option will be declined. So, they could easily spend $65M/yr on free agents next year and they don’t need to fill holes in the rotation or position players with the exception of catcher where in previous years their spending was allocated to patching holes in the rotation. In other words, they will be positioned to fill out the team with high impact free agents instead of filling out the roster.
  19. Major League Ready
    What is the basis for your assumption that the Twin’s odds are better this year than they will be the next 2-3 years?
  20. Major League Ready
    This is all a matter of opinion, but I sway your way. I believe there are going to be two or three SPs that are #2/3 types that will be important for the next few years. Ryan and Winder look like they could be really important pieces and there are a few other guys who could be similar. Then, we have Jax and Alcala who have a chance to be the type of guys that are not spectacular but very effective and therefore important. I guess it's a matter of if we define core players as the stars of the team or players who are around for several years and perform consistently. I am hoping they use the opportunity provided by all the young talent to add a core SP via free agency. So, I am going to throw in a future core player in the form of Joe Musgrove or Carlos Rodon. Yes, I know they have been reluctant to give out long contracts to SPs but they have never been in this position financially. The only other place they need to spend is the BP. So, let a guy dream.
  21. Major League Ready
    So, you're saying that sports media should quit doing the assessment of how well teams do in trades until years later when it's all played out. No doubt those hundreds/thousands of conversations are speculative just like thousands of preseason conversations about which team will win contend. However, it's perfectly reasonable to value the return based on what is known at the time. Was it a top 10 prospect or an unknown? We can measure the relative return. I think any reasonable person understands the judgment is based on conjecture.
  22. Major League Ready
    You obviously don't understand. This is not a woulda situation it's a recap of the options because there are multiple possible scenarios where Berrios could still be part of this team. The recap illustrates that there is not a scenario where keeping Berrios would have made sense given his current level of performance. Obviously, the timeframe involved is the next 6 1/2 years so we won't know definitely until his contract has elapsed.
  23. Major League Ready
    I agree the dollars wouldn't get in the way if it were a good value proposition. However, every business decision has an investment vs payoff component which is why I framed it this way. I could have left out the dollars because it would be a poor decision if it cost nothing.
  24. Major League Ready
    In the context of future preference, there are a few scenarios to consider. We could have rode Berrios through this year and let him go at the end of the year. Alternatively, we could trade similar players and have Castillo or Montas through next year. So, not only would we get a pitcher who is performing vastly better, we would have that SP for next year. We also could have traded him for one of the rentals who are performing much better than Berrios. That would cost less in prospect capital than what we got for Berrios. We also could have given him 7 years. I would much rather that investment plus any additional $$ required and invest in Rodon / Taillon or Musgrove. All three look waaaaay better than Berrios given the current state of performance for all four players. Absolutely no way another team would give him the deal Toronto made at the end of this season unless he is superb the remainder of the year. I would take any of these options over Berrios in a heartbeat.
  25. Major League Ready
    By that logic we certainly don't want Frankie Mantas who has 3 wins and 9 losses.
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