clone52

I meant the more of the percentages, but even with that BABIP, he was an above average hitter against RHP last year. He also crushed RHP in 2021, so him getting lucky with a high BABIP seems to be happening more than him getting unlucky.

What are his statcast numbers against lefties?

Interesting. More than likely, someone will be hurt, so it'll work itself out. If Buxton isn't hurt, they won't leave him off. Granted, I'm assuming he's this bad of a hitter the rest of the year. I think Taylor probably makes it, just for late inning defense. I think Julien or Polanco could also play 1B. Maybe Farmer is left off. Might depend on matchups. If they face a team with a bunch of LHP, that might change thing.

I'd be willing to trade for a reliever for cash or some really low end prospect. Agree that trading for relievers is a crapshoot though. I do think they get get a RH outfielder, though. Even a rental like Grichuk, who wouldn't fit the bill. Would anyone complain about giving up Carlos Aguiar or Willie Joe Garry Jr.? The other thing to think about is the 40 man roster and the Rule V draft. Looking at the current Twins 40 man, I count 33 they would retain. That includes guys like Canterino, Headrick, Henriquez, Sands, Winder, Gordon. Possible they could drop one or more of those. I put maybes on 5 guys, De Leon, Ortega, Farmer, Kepler and Taylor. I don't know who exactly is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year, but if there are prospects who are eligible who the Twins know they won't protect, they might be willing to trade them now.

How about signing Wil Myers as the a RH hitting OF option. He hit lefties well last year and I think he got released, so they wouldn't have to trade anyone for him or pay him much.

I'd take Grichuk as a platoon guy. Play him against lefties.

Another possible rental would be Randal Grichuk. He's having a big bounceback year, but even when he struggled last year, he still crushed lefties. I imagine the cost would be pretty cheap, too.

Why? He's a rental anyway. A team that wanted him for this year wouldn't be worried about retirement. Just might reduce the return if a team who traded for him thought it gave them an inside chance at signing him.

I'll post plans to buy and to sell. Since I'm ever the optimist, I'll start with a buy plan first. Thought being is that the Twins can obviously win the division and have pitching that can compete in the playoffs. If their big hitters revert to the mean, they can have a good offense. Correa, Buxton could get way hot. Kepler can hit better than he has. Here is the buy plan: 1: Fire the hitting coach. Its incredible how bad almost every single hitter is this year. They don't have a single guy having an above average (for them) year and several who are having their worst season in 3-5 years. 2: Keep Gallo. His average sucks, but he's doing what he does. Walks and hits for power. His position flexibility is nice, being able to fill LF, RF and 1B. At worst, I'd rather have him on the bench than Nick Gordon. 3: Probably keep Kepler, unless you get a decent offer or fall into a big upgrade. 4: If you're worried about Royce Lewis coming back, trade for Paul Goldschmidt. I'd maybe even do Goldschmidt for Rodriguez. Would rather do Goldschmidt for Larnach/Winder. 5: Cardinals are probably not selling, so 3B could be a hole. Maybe Justin Turner for the Red Sox? Carlos Santana or Bellinger at 1B and let Solano move to 3B? 6: Shop the RP market for one more RP. Don't break the bank on prospects. If they are sellers: 1. Shop Gallo and Kepler. Make sure you give Wallner and Larnach a lot of play. 2. Shop Gray. Would have to be for a solid haul, though. He'll get a QO and possibly a contract extension. 3. Obviously shop Pagan, but I'd listen to any reliever not named Duran. Jax or Stewart would need to be a great haul, though. 3. Shop Solano 4. Shop Michael Taylor, although I might resign him instead. 5. Trade Polanco. I think Julien will be fine, or if a 3B steps up, its another Royce Lewis spot. Or Brooks Lee. 5. Shop Vazquez and Farmer. Vazquez probably won't get much, so I'd keep him due to the lack of C depth the Twins have.

Not to mention, he's going to be cheap. He's not going to keep hitting this terribly the rest of teh contract and even if he can never play CF again, $15M isn't bad for the type of hitter he would be. More likely, he recovers in the offseason and does get to play some CF in the future.

1. Agree, but don't underrate his clubhouse presence. Sounds like his mentorship really helped Miranda. 2. He does want to be here. If the Twins had offered 12/350 like the Giants did, I bet he picks the Twins. If the Twins had offered 12/315 like the Mets did, I bet he picks the Twins. The fact that he chose more long term security and money than average money per year doesn't mean he didn't like Minnesota. 3. BS. When was the last time a big time contract had someone who wanted to renegotiate in baseball? Does it ever happen? Is Mike Trout begging to get a contract like Aaron Judge. 4. Its more like your hooker dropping you, trying some other guys and then coming back. There is money involved. A personal relationship typically doesn't involve money or a contract. At least for most, maybe your relationships do. 5. It is really weird. Definitely a risk, but you gotta take some risks.

I wouldn't worry about signing those young guys. They are under control for a long time. Larnach, Kiriloff, Duran, Ryan, Ober won't be free agents until 2028. Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Sands, Woods-Richardson won't be a free agent until 2029. Lee, Martin, Julian, Rodriguez, Prielipp won't be a free agents until 2030 or later. Correa will only be making $30M in 2029 and $25M in 2030 if he's still around. By 2029, the Twins payroll should increase up to $160M at minimum I would guess. That still leaves a lot of money for retaining their best young players. Plus, the probably try to sign some of them up for extensions early, which would mean it wouldn't be like they are signing them all to $30M/year contracts of their own.

It does give them a ton of options now to bolster the roster, either during the offseason or before the trade deadline. All of the OFs could be available for the right deal (Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, even Gallo). Polanco, Arraez or Miranda could go and they wouldn't have a huge hole. Even prospects like Lewis, Lee, Martin or Julian become more available theoretically. I think they could put together a deal for about any SP that became available if they thought it moved the needle.

Just go with Nick Nelson's idea. I don't care about the opt outs at all. Twins would have been thrilled with him for 3 years at 105M, so if they offer him an opt out after year 3 or 4, who cares? And if he stinks and stays, how is that any different than a contract with no opt outs? Its not at all. And he's going to have a no trade clause no matter who signs him, so complaining about that is pointless.

Sign Correa Trade for Alcontera, Lopez or some young high end pitcher. Would Lewis, Varland and Sabato get you Lopez? Sign Archer for the bullpen and SP depth if needed. Sign a decent catcher to pair with Jeffers. Maybe add OF depth if you can afford it. Could probably live with Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner and Gordon. Injuries just make me nervous.

I hope it turns out well long term, but my take is not aging well.

Go compare Paddack to Kyle Gibson. First 3 years are very similar in results (ERA, FIP, etc). Paddack started his career 3 years younger than Kyle Gibson. Paddack had way more strikeouts and way fewer walks than Gibson. Gibson really took a leap in his 5th year, 4th year was still a struggle. Gibson was a higher draft pick, but both were in the minors as highly rated prospects. Paddack broke into the big leagues 3 years earlier than Gibson and has a lot better stuff it seems. At a minimum, this seems like 1 year Taylor Rogers for 2-3 years of good Kyle Gibson and a 2 years of a serviceable to good RP. I mean, there is a chance that Paddack and Pagan are more valuable to the Twins this year than Rogers would have been. Not much worse than 50/50 I'd say. Long term, this was a fantastic trade for the Twins. Honestly, this might even make Correa more likely to stick around. If the Twins had picked up Mannaea instead and gotten into the playoffs but not made the World Series, would Correa stick around? Rogers would be leaving, Mannaea would be gone, Now, if Paddack improves and Pagan regains his Tampa form, you are looking good in 2023. Gray, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, best rookie RP has the makings of a great rotation. You only need to hit on one of the rookies. If more of them hit, you've got some great trade chips (not just them, but Paddack himself could be a great trade chip) Duran, Alcala, Tampa Pagan could be a great backend of the bullpen.

And lose both Manaea and Rogers at the end of the season. This is a great trade long term for a slight risk to 2022. No brainer.

Not to mention, you would never pair up two blue chip trade pieces in a single trade. 9 times out of 10 you would get more for them in 2 separate trades.

Yeah, there goes that benefit. And I'm not pushing their agenda, nor do I agree with it. Its just a fact that the Twins effectively have to compete with their own self imposed salary cap.

Another potential benefit of this trade. $3M savings on payroll. We don't know the exact limit the owners have given the front office, but that does free up money for the front office to play with in other deals.

Man, you'd think after a few years with Baldelli and this front office, fans would look outside the box. The Twins aren't going to have a 5 man rotation this year. Its going to be something weird, no doubt. Joe Ryan has never pitched more than 123 innings. Bailey Ober has never pitched more than 125 innings. Winder has never pitched more than 125 innings. Balazovich has never pitched more than 100 innings. Obviously Gray will go every 5th day. Bundy can go every 5th day. Ryan and Ober might start going every 5th day, but they will wear down. Paddock is way better with an extra day of rest. Ober was incredible the first time through the opener. Baldelli would really manage this team with Openers, then starters going 3-5 innings, then go to the bullpen. Yeah, losing Rogers sucks, but if the bullpen without him is going to prevent a successful season, then keeping him isn't going to turn them into a World Series team. Obviously they are going to go with a Closer by committee. They already started doing this with Rogers, by pitching him in the high leverage situations. With Duffy, Alcala, Pagan, you have 3 guys who have had success in high leverage situations in teh past. Stashak has been great at times,b ut not consistant. Joe Smith seems solid. Duran and Jax are a wildcards. If Archer rebounds and the young starters are solid, then Paddock could be a really good bullpen piece. Thielbar, Romero, Coulombe and Romera are depth (and expendable if someone needs to get added to the 40 man). Getting value from Rooker makes sense. If you need to add Garlick, you now drop your lowest rung RP off the 40 man.

If they can't win with this Pen, then Taylor Rogers wasn't going to be the savior that allowed them to win with this Pen.

seems like this guys got a great shot to be a good reliever.

No downside either then.