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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I think the Cleveland FO is smart. The team they have isn't ready to make any noise in the playoffs this year so even if they do lose the division what difference does it really make. They desperately need good bats and the guy they got from Tampa has a really good chance to be not just a good bat but a special bat. They are playing more for 2024 than 2023. They gave their young pitcher's good experience this year and Manzardo has a good chance to make their team next year strengthening their lineup. They look lined up to do well next year. Despite losing Civale who knows with the way the Twins love to squander games they still might win the division as well. I think what they did with Civale makes a ton of sense. Getting rid of Bell for an under performing bat taken high in the draft also seemed like a good play. Even if he doesn't work out they got rid of Bell and can invest that money in another player next year. If Watson does work out they got a 5 tool player for peanuts. I like the risk reward factor there. I said this in another article the Cleveland FO has the balls to make tough moves and it seems to pay off more often than not. After those moves the Twins might be the favorites for the division this year but Cleveland will be setup better for 2024.
  2. Dman
    despite some really ugly at bats he is still top 10 in OPS for the Midwest league. Not over powering numbers IMO but I agree it wouldn't hurt to move him up. He is going to be there next year anyway. Give him an early start to adjust as that AA team is going nowhere as they have no pitching. EDIT: Another reason to move him faster is he is going to be another 40 man add the end of this season. If you want the potential to use him next year then best to move him AA ASAP where if he does dominate they can use him at the MLB level next year.
  3. Dman
    Keaschall must stand on the plate as he was HBP three times in his last FCL game. He had a nice debut in A ball and he looks like he is going to be good at the plate. Just have to hope his defense can be average to better than average. Been keeping my eye on Winokur and he is hitting better than I thought but has a pretty massive K rate as well. Still this is his first exposure to pro ball and he is holding his own so far. If the bat will play that is going to be a good pick.
  4. Dman
    Yeah have to say I am disappointed in the lack of movement myself. Several players are at the top of their league in OPS and they are not moving up to get challenged by the next level. Only a couple months left in the season. They should move guys like Rosario, Cosetti, Lee and Severino up so they can improve their prospect status and ability to help the MLB team at some point.
  5. Dman
    I think it makes sense they stayed pat. They didn't really have much for difference makers that they could afford to trade and they couldn't really afford to pay with the few potential star players they might have on the farm to get anything of significant value. I will say I like what Cleveland did. With a lot of their pitchers down already this year they took risks to get better next year and like the Twins will hope the players they have will step up down the stretch. I really like that the Guardians FO has the balls to make moves for the future as well as stay in the present. Chicago had a really good deadline as well. Whether all those new pieces will work out is hard to say but what they had wasn't working so I like what they did as well. The thing about this deadline is that is was really kind of a go big or go home deadline. Some teams made minor moves but the teams really in it to win it made big, bold moves. Still it will only work out for one team not all of them. I will say I thought the team would move some players. Nick Gordon will be back. Lewis will be back. They will most likely add Kuechel. It seems they will need 40 man room at some point. Their bullpen is incredibly unreliable but I guess they can DFA their way there if needed I just thought they might try and clear the way by trying to get something for some of these guys but maybe no one was interested in this teams many under performers. it is what it is. Just have to hope this team turns things around in the second half.
  6. Dman
    He was Rule V eligible last year but it is a big jump from performing well for half a season of AA ball to the majors so no need to add him. It might still be questionable this year depending on how he performs the next two months. If he hadn't had that horrible first two months I would say he is a must add but bats get hot and bats go cold and teams want Rule V's to stick or they wouldn't take them. The thing is his batting line is so solid right now it is as good or better than Brooks Lee. If this is who he is the Twins might have developed another Spencer Steer. So the next two months will tell the tale but given his ability to be selective at the plate and make contact my money is on Prato making it to MLB ball one way or another.
  7. Dman
    I wonder if the Twins can find a trade partner for Stevenson. I know it wouldn't be much of a return but he could appeal to teams that want a centerfielder they can stash at AAA in case of injury. He also could be a good 4th outfielder addition for the playoffs with a solid bat, ability to steal bases and be a good defensive replacement late in games. I guess it just depends on how much you believe in the numbers but he is having an elite year at AAA and he is blocked pretty badly right now. Severino could be an interesting trade chip. From what I read his defense is not great but he has a power bat that teams love and his batting average is very good too. Some warts with the high BABIP and K rate but he is barreling up balls and the Twins will have to decide if they are willing to add him to 40 man or trade him. Hate to see a bat like his traded away but with Lee, Jullien and maybe Lewis and AAA options in Prato and Helman they are going to have to decide what they want to do there. Rosario is back to striking out more but he still leads his league in OPS. Probably time for a bigger challenge and the Twins need to know sooner than later whether his right handed bat plays because he is Rule V decision at the end of the year as well. Let's see what the young man has at a new level. I know Raya is taking his lumps at AA but it will make him a better pitcher faster as he realizes what he needs to change to be more successful. He has good pitches and I think it was a good idea to be aggressive with him especially since they needed the 2022 pitchers to pitch at High A. Glad you mentioned Henriquez because I think the Twins got taken in that deal. He has been homer prone since he arrived and any way you look at his stats he sucks. WHIP is bad, K rate bad, ERA bad, FIP bad XFIP bad I don't know how the Twins made him worse than when he was with Texas but they found a way. Not sure he has been 100% this year but he is killing the team being on the 40 man and being that bad. Thanks for the summary always appreciate getting a look at the whole week.
  8. Dman
    The Twins don't have a particularly strong system to trade from and the team itself isn't really a player or two away from being an elite team. I mean they just got swept by the Royals. If I were them I would sell where it makes sense or make deals to make them stronger in 2024 but 2023 looks like they will be lucky to stay around .500. I wouldn't make moves that jeopardize any elite talent they might have on the farm especially on rentals.
  9. Dman
    After todays game in AAA he has 28 walks and 28 K's. That is impressive plate presence. Very Arraez like in that he generally makes contact and can take a walk. You are right though only just over a month at AAA and guys go on hot streaks all the time. Still he generally only K's about 20% of the time throughout his minor league career except 2022 in High A where I assume he was working on adding more power he K'd 28% there. Then went to AA still had a solid slugging percentage but dropped the K rate down in arguably a much tougher pitcher environment. The one knock or question about him right now is his brutal start to the year at AA where he had a .553 OPS which is brutal especially since he had been there for half a year already. I mean his slugging at AAA is .623 so to have that low of an OPS in AA it makes you want to give it more time to see who he really is. It is just watching him from time to time he is generally a really tough out. He also seems to be hitting off-speed stuff really well at AAA. If this really is who he is it makes me wonder if this a Witt Merrifield type player. Get's there a little late but really has a well rounded skillset at the plate. I also mentioned Steer before mainly because the knock on Prato was the lack of power but like Steer he seems to have found it and like Steer he has great plate discipline. Probably out over my ski's on Prato and will have to see how the rest of the season plays out but he could earn himself a 40 man spot on this team or another one if the Twins aren't believers.
  10. Dman
    Man Prato is hot. If you look at his betting line with almost as many walks as K's he looks a lot like Spencer Steer except faster and he can play the outfield for added flexibility. Still only a months worth of at bat's for AAA but if he qualified he would be a league leader. I think the Twins might have something in Prato. Rosario still number one in OPS for his league. Hopefully after the deadline some guys will be moving up.
  11. Dman
    I guess I am not sure why we are in such a hurry to trade Matt Wallner. He had a top 5 OPS in AA last year at 1.033 and at AAA this year his OPS is .927 and currently at the MLB level granted a SSS he has a .988 OPS. Most of those numbers are better than what Jullien put up. So what exactly are we going to get back that is better than that? I get he has some K rate issues as he hovers around the 30% mark but his walk rate is around 10% as well which offsets some of that. He has an unsustainable BABIP at AAA right now at just under .400 so there are some warts in the profile but this is two years in a row with elite OPS production in the two top leagues in the minors so I guess I don't understand why you wouldn't give a bat like that a chance at the MLB level before trading him for a withered old veteran for a team barely over .500. His defense at least what I have seen at target field is far from élite but he tracks down most balls and his arm makes up for some of the range issues. He is no Rooker out there. If they want to trade a Lefty outfielder trade Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Larnach likely in that order as I think Wallner has more potential than all of them. While I would like to get something for Maeda before he leaves given the Twins are only 1 and half games up and he has a relatively fresh arm and has pitched about as well as the other four guys it seems like they might need him down the stretch to keep Cleveland at bay. If they think Kuechel can hold that 5th spot without too much damage and they think Varland and Headrick could fill in a pinch I guess I could see them trading Maeda but it better be a nice return and it should be young pitching IMO. Might be playing with fire there but this team has so many flaws maybe in the end it doesn't really matter.,
  12. Dman
    That is true. I will be a bigger believer when they add more innings on. So many of our elite guys end up with TJ and end up relievers. Still you are correct he really can bend a baseball so he has elite stuff if he can stay healthy.
  13. Dman
    If fans on TD can figure out the Twins have too many left handed corner bats it isn't too surprising other FO's know about that issue as well. The Twins technically only need to move one right now and Gallo seems the logical choice even if it means DFA. As discussed in another thread they could move Larnach and Gallo as they have Gordon coming back and they didn't really need Gallo to begin with. While I don't think it makes a ton of sense to move Gray I could see the Twins moving Maeda if the return was right and fill in Kuechel\Varland\Headrick type of deal but that seems like a long shot. The Twins have some interesting rule V issues coming up with Martin, Camargo, Severino, Rosario, Rodriguez and maybe Grace and Funderburk. Not sure what value those players have on the market but there likely isn't room to add them all after the season especially Severino. I think the Twins can make some moves just need the right deals to come together. teams should know that even though Steer and CES were not top 100 prospects Minnesota knows how to develop well rounded bats. So maybe they can get more value than we think.
  14. Dman
    Pretty cool that Winokur's first professional hit was a HR! I had and still have my questions about the bat but if it is for real the Twins got a steal in the 3rd round. Severino 2nd in HR's and 5th in OPS for the Texas League. I keep saying the K rate is too high and his BABIP should come down, bringing down his stats and yet here we are more than half way through the season and he is still a league leader with the bat. Twins have a lot of good hitters at 2nd base in the system and Severino has the best power profile. Nice to see Miller with a couple of hits keeping his July in the .700 OPS range. Hoping he can get that hit tool going so he can start moving up levels. Twins have some really good hitters in the system but pitching is not a strength. There are a few arms that look good but I don't know that I see an elite arm in this system right now. Hopefully guys figure stuff out and things change but they could use more help on the pitching side. Hoping the new crop of players strengthens everything.
  15. Dman
    If it is a good return I am all for it, but I do think he can be slightly above average defensively in left and I think given time his bat will come around. Don't need to give more good bats away. If it isn't this year then next might be tough as well as Rosario and Rodriguez will be moved up and one step away as well. I don't think he has to be traded at the deadline but if someone wants to offer us a good deal I would be all ears.
  16. Dman
    You don't have to spend that money in the lower rounds of the draft though. I wanted the Twins to grab Alex Clemmy but Cleveland gave him almost 1M over slot. You can use that extra cash earlier to sign higher end High School players that dropped out of the first round. In the End the Twins were able to drum up $700,000 to sign Winokur and still stay within the pool amount but imagine if they managed to grab one more player like that with the remaining $700,000 they had to spend. The extra pool money that comes with penalties can be spent anywhere it makes sense to grab a player that fell and would only sign for over a million. We are only talking about pick 20 because that is the only player left that could have been signed with that money but the Twins weren't going over the limit anyway so I guess maybe it was a backup if Winokur didn't sign? Hard to say but they had to know they weren't going to be able to get pick 20 without going over or they thought pick 20 would sign if offered $800,000. Still I see yours and others points that draft picks in general don't work out and 1 extra pick has even less odds of working out but it is interesting to think about who they might have been able to get if they were willing to throw it all in.
  17. Dman
    Wow! really nice article. For me I guess it depends on how the money "saved" is reallocated, but it is hard to believe you get a bigger bang for your buck than nabbing a potential 3rd round draft pick that has fallen down the board. I mean they did that with Jullian granted staying within their pool dollars and that worked out pretty well so the value worked in actual practice. Personally I think they are missing out on opportunities there. Somewhat in their defense you can see how it impacted negotiations for their first round pick. They have never gone over and have set no precedent for going over so the money that was there was the money that was there. Still they should be thinking that through IMO. What are opportunities lost versus gained. The data should be there for the odds of hitting on those types of picks and the more chances you give yourself the most likely you are to succeed.
  18. Dman
    IMO it would be nice if they could move Gallo off the roster. That would be an addition by subtraction trade it allows room for Larnach and Wallner who are comparable hitters and allows Gordon to come back on the 40 man without losing anyone. I am not in love with the Lane Thomas platoon idea but given the Twins have no right handed outfielder's close to ready if Washington isn't asking for something outrageous I could see that as a positive move for the team. Not sure if other teams would be willing to build a package around Severino or Prato or Helman or Williams or Stevenson type players but they are rule V guys with interesting stats. Probably would need more but they could also be good addins to get a deal done. Have to wait and see what the FO can do I guess.
  19. Dman
    I would think the Twins could let Elliot Soto go if they wanted to or essentially bench him. I don't know when Helman comes back but if it soon unless someone gets moved from St. Paul there does not appear to be room. Proabably hard to find playing time for everyone as it is. There also isn't much room in the AAA outfield either. Kind of wondering if some of these players could be deadline bait\addins. Will have to wait and see how things look after the deadline.
  20. Dman
    This is the time of year that pitchers deal with arm fatigue. It looks like the Twins tried to take it easy on Balazovic moving him to the pen and Headrick pitching him less innings recently but it seems like lot's of arms even at the MLB level are struggling more as we move into the second half of the season. I would expect more erratic starts from here on out for a fair number of arms. Seems to be part of the process.
  21. Dman
    Stevenson and Prato are red hot. I don't know why Stevenson picked Minnesota as his bat looks MLB ready and he has success at that level.. One bad year in 2021 otherwise the hit tool looks like it plays just fine. He is old for the level at 29 but it sure looks like he can play. Prato has always been an under dog favorite of mine. Really strong K rate, walk rate numbers and good slugging to go with it. He makes a lot of good contact and is batting .315 at AAA. I still think he is a diamond in the rough type of player. Garlick's bat has started to heat up again as well. Maybe he makes his way back to the Twins yet. I gave Lee plenty of grief for not looking that great to start the year. He is making me eat my words. His batting average is almost .300 and his OPS almost .850. Those are elite numbers for that level and he is doing that in his first pro year. I don't think I have seen a college prospect start at AA and do that well for at least half a season. It would be nice if they found room at AAA to see how he does there but they could promote him from AA as his overall batting line is good enough to promote him from AA if they want\need to. The scouts said he had an advanced bat and he is proving them right. Lee is the real deal.
  22. Dman
    He needed a fresh start but man did we get taken by Baltimore. Ouch! Doesn't seem like a huge needle mover to me. I suppose Lopez will be lights out in Miami that seems to be the way things have been going for us these days.
  23. Dman
    He has the best stats of any reliever in St Paul but I think he gets no love because of his fastball. He also isn't on the 40 man and there isn't really room without dropping someone. I think he will have to wait for next year to get his shot unless more injuries occur. With Thielbar on the way back and Moran still up and Headrick on the 40 man he is going to have a tough time cracking the 40 man as a lefty reliever that doesn't really have elite stuff. If the 40 man wasn't an issue I bet we would have seen him at the MLB level by now.
  24. Dman
    Yeah he is the most well rounded bat of all the catching prospects. 15% walk rate. 17% K rate and .500 Slugging with the most HR's of all the catcher's not named Camargo. His balanced line means he has a really good chance to be successful as he moves up. The only other catcher with a similar profile would be Olivar who is one level behind him but is younger at only 21. I don't know what his defense is like but with that bat it just needs to be passable. Heck of a pickup for an 11th round pick.
  25. Dman
    Yeah gotta agree with the Stevenson comments. He has been a monster bat all season. Nothing more he can do there. He has had some success in the majors as well but was never given much time there. It is a tough transition. If he was right handed he might have a shot. Seems like a long shot though considering all the guys in front of him. He deserves another shot at the MLB level I wonder if the Twins could trade him to Oakland or some other team for cash or something if they agreed to play him at the MLB level. Speaking of right handed bats the Twins should move Rosario up to AA. He has passed Tanner Schobel for OPS in the Midwest league stats and .04 points out of first place for the OPS lead. Time to move the kid up so he can get used to the much better pitching at AA. He might struggle there but at least by next year he could be a viable option at the MLB level if he gets his bat going there. And we don't have another right handed outfield bat close to ready so they should keep him moving. Cardenas is top 10 for OPS now as well one spot ahead of Rodriguez. He has been a solid bat all year long and he has heated up the last couple of games. He could stand to move up as well and Olivar is ready to move to High A it would be a good swap to keep both players more challenged. Time to make some moves. Hopefully they do.
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